2021 progression/regression

[Dominikk85]

Some positions should get a big upgrade but obviously there also will be some regressions.

Catcher: about the same. McCann gone but grandal could become a tiny bit better 

1b: some regression, Jose is 34 next year expect more a 120-130 wRC+ than a 160. But still a good spot

2b: about the same, full year of Nick but leury and mendick were  great in the beginning, could be again around a 110-115 wrc+

Ss: very slight regression (babip) but also think Tim could take another step forward and produce like a 130

3b: should be much better with a healthy yoan I expect a 120-130 wrc+

Lf: about the same if eloy stays healthy

Cf: should be better,I don't expect a first half Robert but second half is not real either and bottom line should be better than 101. Expect more 115-120 range maybe more

Rf: should be a big upgrade whoever that it. Can't be like a 75 wrc+ again and should be at least a 105 or so

DH: big upgrade as EE is gone and Vaughn could produce a 115-120 wrc+ and whoever does the first month for Vaughns service time won't be that bad either.

 

1 starter: about the same, maybe a tiny bit of regression

2 starter: keuchel will regress some, expect more a mid to high 3s era but he is still solid

3-5 starter: should be better, not necessarily the ERA   but the volume, as you will get guys who can actually go more than 4.

 

Pen: there will be regression unless the sox make some moves. I think heuer and bummer are good but after them there are question marks that need to be addressed. Colome is gone (and won't be that good) and crochet might be out with injury or in the minors. Sox need to get one or two guys to maintain the level.

Edited October 3, 2020 by Dominikk85

[Dominikk85]

Closer is also a spot where they sox could lose games if they don't upgrade. 

[southsider2k5]

4 hours ago, Dominikk85 said:

Closer is also a spot where they sox could lose games if they don't upgrade. 

Colome is a FA, I would be really happy to have him back.  If not, I'd feel good about Heuer back there.

[Dominikk85]

I wonder how good colome is though. His ERA and save record were great but he just had a 9% k-bb rate and while his fip was still solid at. 3.69 his xfip was over 5 (not believing a 0% hr /fb rate). 

To be fair colome has a history of doing that especially surpressing Homers (career 14% k-bb but 0.76 HR/9 with 3.99 xfip, 3.54 fip and sub 3 Era) but still last year was a bit extreme. 

[southsider2k5]

With Colome he has a long history of outperforming his peripherals, so I don't have a problem with assuming that will be the case going forward.  Even at his career norms, he is a solid closer.

[Dick Allen]

I looked at the ISFA meeting from September. i like to see if they spill the beans on any capital projects. Ths year its mostly waterproofing and lighting in the offices. The one thing baseball related is a humidor. I think the league is trying to get all teams to use one. I wonder if it will suddenly decrease HR rates.

[YourWhatHurts]

There should be no question that the C position will get significantly worse defensively with McCann gone, and most likely, the pitchers ERAs will increase.  McCann leaving means more time behind the plate for Grandal who will be 1 year older, and it's most likely going to be Collins picking up the rest of the ABs.  If it's Grandal + Collins + Yermin behind the plate, oh boy, we're going to be baaaad back there.

If there is one guy I would be 100% on board with throwing big money at this offseason it is Realmuto.  Grandal's contract is moveable for sure and he doesn't have a NTC.  Sure it could be seen as a "shrewd" move, but signing Grandal with McCann already here coming off of an All-Star season was already a shrewd move behind the plate.  Realmuto is p4p one of the best players in all of baseball.  He's the best C in baseball and would be a serious addition to our core.  He's the best C in the game IMO since Yadier Molina, and Yadier IMO is the best one since Ivan Rodriguez.  I would absolutely throw money at him.  And I think there would be several teams willing to take Grandal off of our hands and still give us a good prospect because his deal is not bad at all and he is still a good player, just nowhere near as good as Realmuto.

Edit: I'll add one more thing: Realmuto as a C is a better longterm, big money investment than Machado or Harper would have been, and because he's a C, no matter how great he is, I don't think he can do better than 6 years guaranteed with any options after that being heavily incentivized.

Edited October 9, 2020 by YourWhatHurts

[southsider2k5]

Just now, YourWhatHurts said:

There should be no question that the C position will get significantly worse defensively with McCann gone, and most likely, the pitchers ERAs will increase.  McCann leaving means more time behind the plate for Grandal who will be 1 year older, and it's most likely going to be Collins picking up the rest of the ABs.  If it's Grandal + Collins + Yermin behind the plate, oh boy, we're going to be baaaad back there.

If there is one guy I would be 100% on board with throwing big money at this offseason it is Realmuto.  Grandal's contract is moveable for sure and he doesn't have a NTC.  Sure it could be seen as a "shrewd" move, but signing Grandal with McCann already here coming off of an All-Star season was already a shrewd move behind the plate.  Realmuto is p4p one of the best players in all of baseball.  He's the best C in baseball and would be a serious addition to our core.  He's the best C in the game IMO since Yadier Molina, and Yadier IMO is the best one since Ivan Rodriguez.  I would absolutely throw money at him.  And I think there would be several teams willing to take Grandal off of our hands and still give us a good prospect because his deal is not bad at all and he is still a good player, just nowhere near as good as Realmuto.

With the economic season this winter, I can't see a single team willing to take on that Grandal contract without some extra incentive.

[YourWhatHurts]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

With the economic season this winter, I can't see a single team willing to take on that Grandal contract without some extra incentive.

I think the Cubs would (looking to move Contreras anyway, if they move Contreras first), and I think the Red Sox, Nationals, maybe the Mets, also the Angels would.  Perhaps the Padres would if we ate money, but if we ate money on a Padres deal that might be the best destination because we could conceivably get a really nice prospect out of them.

I know that my list includes teams that should rebuild, but I'm not sure the Nats, Mets, or Angels ownership will do so, and I think the Red Sox are probably just looking to retool and will expect to be contending again, somehow, in 2022 at the latest.  Depending on what happens with COVID etc., if playoff teams get added over this offseason before teams really start making moves, I can see the Red Sox trying to make a couple moves to grab the last AL playoff spot in 2021, just because that seems to be the way they work.

[YourWhatHurts]

Also maybe the Yankees would take Grandal since they may be souring on Gary Sanchez.  Grandal for Sanchez and Ottavino would be a move I think they would make.

[Chicago White Sox]

There is a zero % chance we trade Grandal so not sure why people keep pushing that narrative.

[southsider2k5]

Every single team in baseball could have paid Grandal $18 million a season (or more) last season, and 29 teams chose not to.  Now in 2020, teams have lost billions of dollars in revenues, and NOW they would be willing to do so?  That doesn't even make sense.

[YourWhatHurts]

10 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

There is a zero % chance we trade Grandal so not sure why people keep pushing that narrative.

You wouldn't want to upgrade to Realmuto?

[YourWhatHurts]

9 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Every single team in baseball could have paid Grandal $18 million a season (or more) last season, and 29 teams chose not to.  Now in 2020, teams have lost billions of dollars in revenues, and NOW they would be willing to do so?  That doesn't even make sense.

Well gee I guess there will be no offseason for anyone then.  No one is going to spend any money and no organization will have a different plan than the one they had the year prior.  Got it.  I bet teams like the Blue Jays for instance just aren't going to try to get better until owners quit crying poor.  Your shilling for ownership at every turn is truly pathetic and digusting.  You shill not only for reinsdorf but everyone else too.

[Dominikk85]

39 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

You wouldn't want to upgrade to Realmuto?

Realmuto is a bit better than grandal but grandal is a top4 catcher too. 

Why would you try to marginally upgrade catcher when you have black holes in RF, 4th starter and 5th starter? (depending on how kopech comes back next year). 

 

The Sox need a RF, a starter and a top reliever (either colome or a replacement), marginal upgrades of good positions would be inefficient 

 

Edited October 9, 2020 by Dominikk85

[southsider2k5]

36 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

Well gee I guess there will be no offseason for anyone then.  No one is going to spend any money and no organization will have a different plan than the one they had the year prior.  Got it.  I bet teams like the Blue Jays for instance just aren't going to try to get better until owners quit crying poor.  Your shilling for ownership at every turn is truly pathetic and digusting.  You shill not only for reinsdorf but everyone else too.

lol, wut?  Are you really trying to pretend that COVID hasn't changed the monetary situation around baseball? 

[South Side Fireworks Man]

I hope it doesn't happen, but in the back of my mind I fear the possibility of 2021 Jose Abreu becoming the latest White Sox version of Adam Dunn/Adam Laroche/Yonder Alonso/Edwin Encarnacion.  That would be such a White Sox thing to happen.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, YourWhatHurts said:

You wouldn't want to upgrade to Realmuto?

I just don’t think it’s an idea would exploring as there is literally zero chance the Sox go through the gymnastics of moving Grandal just to sign Realmuto.  The Sox may add a better backup than Collins, but the starting catching position is not a problem for us and will not be a priority for us this offseason.  A TOR starter, a high leverage reliever, a veteran swingman, and a RF upgrade are where Hahn will spend his time and effort.

[YourWhatHurts]

If anyone seriously believes that JT Realmuto is only a marginal upgrade over Yasmani Grandal, all I can say is  😱

[YourWhatHurts]

1 hour ago, South Side Fireworks Man said:

I hope it doesn't happen, but in the back of my mind I fear the possibility of 2021 Jose Abreu becoming the latest White Sox version of Adam Dunn/Adam Laroche/Yonder Alonso/Edwin Encarnacion.  That would be such a White Sox thing to happen.

Jose with a broken arm and 2 broken legs is a better pure hitter than any of those guys have ever been in their lives.  My only concern is whether the Sox will DH him when necessary, and even if they do, whether that move will be enough given Eloy's presence in LF. 

[YourWhatHurts]

22 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

If anyone seriously believes that JT Realmuto is only a marginal upgrade over Yasmani Grandal, all I can say is  😱

BTW just in case anyone cared, Yas burned the shit out of his scrambled eggs this morning.  What happened was that there was a spider crawling across the ceiling in the kitchen, and it was really high on the ceiling but still kind of in the area where the stove is, and he was watching the spider because the spider may have been poisonous, but regardless, if the spider decided to descend on some silk into his eggs then certainly his eggs would be ruined.  So he watched the spider for about 4 or 5 minutes until he smelled something burning which is exactly when he realized he fucked his eggs.  So then he took the pan off of the flame and went to flip the eggs over with the spatula to see if they could be salvaged, but then just as he was flipping the eggs, out of the corner of his eye he caught sight of the spider descending from the ceiling, at which point he dropped the pan onto the floor with the spatula in it.  But then as he tried to catch the spatula with one hand, somehow he accidentally kicked the pan with the eggs in it about 6 feet across the floor until it hit the bottom of the refrigerator.  When his wife came in and asked what happened, he of course explained himself and said it would never happen again.

[Dominikk85]

32 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

If anyone seriously believes that JT Realmuto is only a marginal upgrade over Yasmani Grandal, all I can say is  😱

Fact is both are elite while Sox have negative war players at 5th starter and right field next year. Which upgrade makes more sense? Upgrading a RF or 5th starter projected for minus 0.5 war or a catcher who is projected for 2.5 to 3 war? 

 

[YourWhatHurts]

Whatever the WAR says, Realmuto is a much better defensive catcher.   And it makes sense because in Realmuto you are talking about getting a guy who will be the next guy worth talking about after Fisk and then AJ.  He'd be locked up for many years and nobody would be talking about moving him off of the position by midseason 2021 and especially by the 2021-22 offseason.  But mark my words those conversations will be coming re: Grandal even if I don't say a word about it personally.

Yas is a good hitter though and lefty bat is nice.  But we already have enough DHs here.  The fit really isn't great or necessary.  As a short-term fix, fine, but anytime there is a player the quality of Realmuto on the market I think you have to take a shot.  It's such an extreme rarity.

[South Side Hit Men]

1 hour ago, YourWhatHurts said:

BTW just in case anyone cared, Yas burned the shit out of his scrambled eggs this morning.  What happened was that there was a spider crawling across the ceiling in the kitchen, and it was really high on the ceiling but still kind of in the area where the stove is, and he was watching the spider because the spider may have been poisonous, but regardless, if the spider decided to descend on some silk into his eggs then certainly his eggs would be ruined.  So he watched the spider for about 4 or 5 minutes until he smelled something burning which is exactly when he realized he fucked his eggs.  So then he took the pan off of the flame and went to flip the eggs over with the spatula to see if they could be salvaged, but then just as he was flipping the eggs, out of the corner of his eye he caught sight of the spider descending from the ceiling, at which point he dropped the pan onto the floor with the spatula in it.  But then as he tried to catch the spatula with one hand, somehow he accidentally kicked the pan with the eggs in it about 6 feet across the floor until it hit the bottom of the refrigerator.  When his wife came in and asked what happened, he of course explained himself and said it would never happen again.

You left out the best part. Grandal's 2020 fWAR went up 0.4 this morning for his spatula framing. 

[ShoeLessRob]

12 hours ago, YourWhatHurts said:

Whatever the WAR says, Realmuto is a much better defensive catcher.   And it makes sense because in Realmuto you are talking about getting a guy who will be the next guy worth talking about after Fisk and then AJ.  He'd be locked up for many years and nobody would be talking about moving him off of the position by midseason 2021 and especially by the 2021-22 offseason.  But mark my words those conversations will be coming re: Grandal even if I don't say a word about it personally.

Yas is a good hitter though and lefty bat is nice.  But we already have enough DHs here.  The fit really isn't great or necessary.  As a short-term fix, fine, but anytime there is a player the quality of Realmuto on the market I think you have to take a shot.  It's such an extreme rarity.

I find it weird that Realmuto’s agent is visiting a White Sox message board.