Mazara and Right Field Thread

[Quin]

2 minutes ago, The Hawk said:

What makes you afraid to acknowledge BA, HRs, and RBIs as important statistics in measuring good hitting performance? It's fine to construct other statistics as a means to focus attention on areas that can be improved, or in evaluating performance, or in defensing a player. What I do not understand, though, is the apparent zeal on the part of some people to mock the established metrics like BA, HRs, RBIs Slugging %age, OBP, etc. And for anyone to think that a smart baseball man cannot used the established metrics to evaluate player performance and rate players, you are being pretty obtuse.

Fun fact: Slugging % and OBP are actually sabermetrics. 

I say this as someone that would be willing to give Mazara another chance, but is also perfectly fine moving on from him. 

The reason people want to use other statistics in addition to batting average, home runs, and runs batted in is because just using those three would be akin to finger painting with the three primary colors. Tim Anderson's batting average sank in 2020, his OBP was the same, but he was a better hitter and we can tell because of sabermetrics (and the eye test, but when you need objective proof, bam, stats.)

[The Hawk]

8 minutes ago, KonerkoFan1 said:

I love it when people make claims, can't back them up and then push their burden of proof fallacies while puffing their chests out so they can pretend they have done anything except lose an argument in embarrassing fashion. Not to mention claiming their time is being "wasted" yet they respond continuously regardless with empty paragraph after empty paragraph of meaningless rants. 

If you can't even pull data you claim you have access to, you need to stop asking other people to "prove" stuff.

Anyone smart sees right through this egotisistical shtick.

   Funny stuff. I know what I read and I am right in what I've argued about Mazara. A couple of guys have said that I was wrong. That, to me, shifts the burden of proof on them, not me. I am not going to waste my time pulling off gobs of data, reformat it to be shown on a meaningful chart, and display it on a board like this. These stat boards that are out there do not lend themselves to what I would call requests of specific extracts of information for an individual player or players. Instead it requires manual extraction which is time consuming and tedious. Then you would have to format the results into a format that makes sense to describe. For what? To "prove" whatever I already know is correct to someone who is challenging me? Nope. Not going to happen. If those guys want to do this crap, let them do the work Guess what, they won't do it because this is nothing but a game with them. They'd rather sit back and challenge shit that they don't like to hear and make the other guy jump through hoops and not the other way around.

   But since you jumped into this fray, you do it. You prove that Mazara over the years of 2016-2019 wasn't an above average power hitting right fielder in the American league. It should be really easy for you to do, right? Or is this just some "meaningless RANT"?

[southsider2k5]

22 minutes ago, The Hawk said:

Prove it. What was the average home run production of American league right fielders for the years 2016-2019?  Mazara had an average of 20 home runs during that time frame. You will find if you wade through this stuff that there really are not a lot of American league right fielders that hit many home runs while playing that position regularly. nd I also noticed that some teams get forced to play guys out there that already have a DH limited defense type in left field and in an effort to bring another bat, place him in right field(see Cruz in Minnesota). And now Betts is in LA so the right field position in the AL has gotten generally weaker especially since Judge gets hurt a lot.

Since you are too lazy to do your own work, and like to announcing things as fact, even when you are wrong, here you go.

If you go over ONLY the 4 year period you have tried to keep this to, he was 8th in a league with 15 teams if you narrow the focus to ONLY AL teams, and leave out 2020.  If you look at his batting average he was 12th.  His OBP was 16th.

Again, no matter how you try to narrow and rearrange this argument, Nomar Mazara is not a good RF.  Even with narrowing this to one stat, only a specific four years to leave off his worst year, AND to ignore half of the RFs in baseball, your argument is STILL WRONG.

[southsider2k5]

20 minutes ago, bmags said:

Why should we care so much about home runs?

Because he (wrongly) thinks is proves something.

[The Hawk]

10 minutes ago, Quin said:

Fun fact: Slugging % and OBP are actually sabermetrics. 

I say this as someone that would be willing to give Mazara another chance, but is also perfectly fine moving on from him. 

The reason people want to use other statistics in addition to batting average, home runs, and runs batted in is because just using those three would be akin to finger painting with the three primary colors. Tim Anderson's batting average sank in 2020, his OBP was the same, but he was a better hitter and we can tell because of sabermetrics (and the eye test, but when you need objective proof, bam, stats.)

I agree. Well said. What I will also say is this. There are some things that a human mind does automatically when it comes to taking a look at something and assessing its validity and/or worth. Before the advent of what evolved as Sabermetrics, there were minds that took a look at the player and factored in things like walks, being hit by a pitch, hitting with two strikes protecting a runner trying to steal a base,etc. and without a statistic in front of them that added those additional factors up and put a value to them or it, used their BRAIN to evaluate the worth of the player. When you think of it, baseball is no different in this aspect than many other ways that companies evaluate the performance of their employees.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, The Hawk said:

I agree. Well said. What I will also say is this. There are some things that a human mind does automatically when it comes to taking a look at something and assessing its validity and/or worth. Before the advent of what evolved as Sabermetrics, there were minds that took a look at the player and factored in things like walks, being hit by a pitch, hitting with two strikes protecting a runner trying to steal a base,etc. and without a statistic in front of them that added those additional factors up and put a value to them or it, used their BRAIN to evaluate the worth of the player. When you think of it, baseball is no different in this aspect than many other ways that companies evaluate the performance of their employees.

And now we have mathematical equations which can actually quantify these numbers for each situation and tell us which is statistically most likely to generate runs, and which is projected to generate the most runs.  So we have taken those BRAINS, and we have built new and improved ways of really understanding these situations.  We didn't quit evolving in 1986.  That's what modern statistical analysis is.  So when you try to throw out these new fangled stats, as something have biases build in them, realize that there is much LESS bias built into these modern stats, than there was in the overly simplistic stats of the old days and the eye test.

We can boil both offense and defense down to runs expectations, all of the way down to each individual pitch.  We are SOOO far ahead of what we used to know about the game of baseball, it isn't even funny.  Even the White Sox know this.

[The Hawk]

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Since you are too lazy to do your own work, and like to announcing things as fact, even when you are wrong, here you go.

If you go over ONLY the 4 year period you have tried to keep this to, he was 8th in a league with 15 teams if you narrow the focus to ONLY AL teams, and leave out 2020.  If you look at his batting average he was 12th.  His OBP was 16th.

Again, no matter how you try to narrow and rearrange this argument, Nomar Mazara is not a good RF.  Even with narrowing this to one stat, only a specific four years to leave off his worst year, AND to ignore half of the RFs in baseball, your argument is STILL WRONG.

I'm not rearranging anything. I said at the onset that I am throwing out the 2020 season because it was a season where he was a season where he got very sick. Same thing that I said about Moncada. My argument also was that I consider right field to be a power position as most major league teams do. And there were a lot more than 15 outfielders listed on those baseball statistical references. Many teams had 2-3 guys that split a lot of time at that position during the year. Take this little tidbit and consider it. Mazara basically played right field pretty exclusively for the Texas Rangers and was paid "X" dollars for 4 years. During that same time, many other teams paid 3-6 players to play right field for them. Take Aaron Judge for example, they paid him a lot of bank certainly but they also paid more bank for the other bunch of right fielders who played that position for them for those years. Same thing for the other teams. 

   Now then, with all of this silliness aside, the issue is still the same. Will the White Sox sign Mazara to a new contract or not? I think that they will. Don't know what form the contract will take but I think that like someone suggested earlier, that they might put together an incentive laden contract. He is only 26 years old. He battled through an illness in 2020 and showed signs of  coming back at the end of the season. We will see what happens.

[The Hawk]

10 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

And now we have mathematical equations which can actually quantify these numbers for each situation and tell us which is statistically most likely to generate runs, and which is projected to generate the most runs.  So we have taken those BRAINS, and we have built new and improved ways of really understanding these situations.  We didn't quit evolving in 1986.  That's what modern statistical analysis is.  So when you try to throw out these new fangled stats, as something have biases build in them, realize that there is much LESS bias built into these modern stats, than there was in the overly simplistic stats of the old days and the eye test.

We can boil both offense and defense down to runs expectations, all of the way down to each individual pitch.  We are SOOO far ahead of what we used to know about the game of baseball, it isn't even funny.  Even the White Sox know this.

Do you think that a statistical guru from the U of C could be a manager or GM of a baseball team? 

[The Hawk]

13 hours ago, KonerkoFan1 said:

Another person who doesn't understand grading things by process rather than result, I see.

Your sample size of "free agents" is at best the same as the amount that have been poor anyway.

You're also not taking into account all the perfect fits for this team he failed to sign, and that's not even taking into consideration the whiffs on Machado and Wheeler.

Whiffs? Ever imagine wh they don't have on their team if they signed the two of them? For the record, I wanted them to sign Wheeler but for the "right money". I also wanted them to trade for Q and not sign Gonzalez.

[The Hawk]

25 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Because he (wrongly) thinks is proves something.

Really? Have you not even taken a glance at what is happening across baseball right now? Are you really saying that home runs are not important in the scheme of baseball? I guess all of the focus on launch angles, exit velocity, spin rates and all of the crap that pitchers are doing to try and defeat the home run hitters of the day is just not happening right now?

    Guys like Madrigal are becoming a dying breed right now in baseball. I'm not saying that it is for the betterment of the game BTW but it is the truth. The game has changed big time. Seams are shrinking, the ball is slick, players are all turning into body building freaks. As a former pitcher and pitching coach, I actually do not like the new game as it stands.

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, The Hawk said:

Do you think that a statistical guru from the U of C could be a manager or GM of a baseball team? 

Have you paid attention to the last decade?  

Here is a great example to start with

https://www.workinsports.com/blog/how-ten-mlb-general-managers-began-their-sports-careers/

Notable Achievement: Lunhow had no previous baseball experience prior to being hired by Cardinals owner William DeWitt Jr. with the hopes of making the organization more analytical and data-driven. Initially his hiring wasn’t popular, being nicknamed “the accountant” and “Harry Potter”, but he helped turn the Cardinals farm system into a dominant force winning five minor league championships under his purview and developing multiple major league talents.]/quote]

Jon Daniels – Texas Rangers

Hometown: Queens, New York

College: Daniels graduated from Cornell University with a degree in Applied Economics and Management. Daniels did not play baseball in College.

First Job after Graduation: Daniels didn’t start out in baseball, he began working in Business Development for Allied Domecq, an operator of wine, spirits and quick service restaurant businesses. He hated it so much he took an unpaid internship with the Colorado Rockies after 2-years.

Alex Anthopolous – Toronto Blue Jays

Hometown: Montreal, Quebec

College: Anthopolous graduated from McMaster University with a degree in Economics.

 

First Job after Graduation: After his father died, Anthopolous returned home to Montreal and began running the family heating and ventilation business. After two years he had enough. The 23-year old Anthopolous began sending out letters to every MLB team looking for any kind of break. Eventually the Montreal Expos offered him an unpaid job working in the mail room sorting fan mail.

[The Hawk]

5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Have you paid attention to the last decade?  

Here is a great example to start with

https://www.workinsports.com/blog/how-ten-mlb-general-managers-began-their-sports-careers/

I said stat guru. Most of these guys are business administration and economics majors. We'll see how it all plays out with the new emphasis on business guys making decision regarding marketing, farm system development, trade scenarios, player personnel decisions, concessions, and of course...WINNING. For sure, the GM job is  blend of a bunch of skills. That is why they get paid the big bucks.

 

[southsider2k5]

8 minutes ago, The Hawk said:

 

It is literally in the very first line of the first description.  Pretty much every GM and almost every Manager in baseball today is a stats guy.  Ricky Renteria pretty much got fired for refusing to incorporate this type of analysis into his daily work if you read some of the stories out there about his firing.

[RagahRagah]

1 hour ago, The Hawk said:

   Funny stuff. I know what I read and I am right in what I've argued about Mazara. A couple of guys have said that I was wrong. That, to me, shifts the burden of proof on them, not me. I am not going to waste my time pulling off gobs of data, reformat it to be shown on a meaningful chart, and display it on a board like this. These stat boards that are out there do not lend themselves to what I would call requests of specific extracts of information for an individual player or players. Instead it requires manual extraction which is time consuming and tedious. Then you would have to format the results into a format that makes sense to describe. For what? To "prove" whatever I already know is correct to someone who is challenging me? Nope. Not going to happen. If those guys want to do this crap, let them do the work Guess what, they won't do it because this is nothing but a game with them. They'd rather sit back and challenge shit that they don't like to hear and make the other guy jump through hoops and not the other way around.

   But since you jumped into this fray, you do it. You prove that Mazara over the years of 2016-2019 wasn't an above average power hitting right fielder in the American league. It should be really easy for you to do, right? Or is this just some "meaningless RANT"?

"I'm so right that I even have the statistics to prove it! But I'm not going to waste my time posting them, but I'll continue wasting my time bloviating for post after post."

[The Hawk]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

It is literally in the very first line of the first description.  Pretty much every GM and almost every Manager in baseball today is a stats guy.  Ricky Renteria pretty much got fired for refusing to incorporate this type of analysis into his daily work if you read some of the stories out there about his firing.

Define what a manager who is  "stats guy" is? Tell me what you think that these guys who are "stat" guys do as a manager that is different from what a NON stat guy does. All stats are to me is information that a manager takes in as part of what his decision making process is.  I think a lot of this is subtle. In fact I know it is subtle. 

[RagahRagah]

45 minutes ago, The Hawk said:

Whiffs? Ever imagine wh they don't have on their team if they signed the two of them? For the record, I wanted them to sign Wheeler but for the "right money". I also wanted them to trade for Q and not sign Gonzalez.

The right money is the most money. That was the only thing that was going to sign him, logically. But yet we still offered the most and didn't get him, which shows you things need to change drastically for this franchise. 

And who says the rest of it doesn't happen? The spending was still somewhat relatively low outside of Grandal.

Our biggest need is pitching. Our starting rotation is in shambles right now. We needed to sign at least one big free-agent picture, Dallas Keuchel aside.

Edited October 26, 2020 by KonerkoFan1

[southsider2k5]

Just now, The Hawk said:

Define what a manager who is  "stats guy" is? Tell me what you think that these guys who are "stat" guys do as a manager that is different from what a NON stat guy does. All stats are to me is information that a manager takes in as part of what his decision making process is.  I think a lot of this is subtle. In fact I know it is subtle. 

You are literally just making up stuff as you go along.  You get proven wrong, and then haul the goalposts somewhere else and set up with a new attempt.  Just walk away.

[RagahRagah]

4 minutes ago, The Hawk said:

Define what a manager who is  "stats guy" is? Tell me what you think that these guys who are "stat" guys do as a manager that is different from what a NON stat guy does. All stats are to me is information that a manager takes in as part of what his decision making process is.  I think a lot of this is subtle. In fact I know it is subtle. 

You do realize that a lot of managers don't take stats at all into account, right?

If you really don't think there's guys who aren't stat guys and that there's no difference between a stat guy and a non-stat guy then you are as dense as anybody I've ever seen post on this site.

Edited October 26, 2020 by KonerkoFan1

[The Hawk]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

You are literally just making up stuff as you go along.  You get proven wrong, and then haul the goalposts somewhere else and set up with a new attempt.  Just walk away.

Where did I get "proven wrong"? I asked a good question. What do you think that a stat guy manager does differently than a non "stat guy"?  It sure as hell doesn't play out during the course of a game other than in the preparation for the game. By that I mean, pitchers will still go over their preparation for how they are going to attack the line-up presented by the other team, the infield will review the hitter tendencies and how they will defense each player and the outfield will do the same. Then there will be a general review to make sure that the pitchers and the defense are in synch. 

   This has gone on for decades BTW. More data is available now and its easier to format and make available now than before but this same kind of stuff has been reviewed like forever by good managers and pitching coaches. Am I right? 

[RagahRagah]

1 minute ago, The Hawk said:

Where did I get "proven wrong"? I asked a good question. What do you think that a stat guy manager does differently than a non "stat guy"?  It sure as hell doesn't play out during the course of a game other than in the preparation for the game. By that I mean, pitchers will still go over their preparation for how they are going to attack the line-up presented by the other team, the infield will review the hitter tendencies and how they will defense each player and the outfield will do the same. Then there will be a general review to make sure that the pitchers and the defense are in synch. 

   This has gone on for decades BTW. More data is available now and its easier to format and make available now than before but this same kind of stuff has been reviewed like forever by good managers and pitching coaches. Am I right?

No. And you haven't been right about much yet at all.

[hi8is]

2 minutes ago, The Hawk said:

Am I right? 

Welcome to Soxtalk!

[The Hawk]

8 minutes ago, KonerkoFan1 said:

You do realize that a lot of managers don't take stats at all into account, right?

If you really don't think there's guys who aren't stat guys and that there's no difference between a stat guy and a non-stat guy then you are as dense as anybody I've ever seen post on this site.

Another insult. Knock that shit off. Since you called me "dense", tell me all about your knowledge of what a "stat guy" is and how he operates versus who is a "non-stat guy" and what he does differently. Tell me, for example what a pitching coach does or doesn't do in each case? I need to learn this stuff if I am to interact with such a smart stat guy like you, I guess:)

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, The Hawk said:

Another insult. Knock that shit off. Since you called me "dense", tell me all about your knowledge of what a "stat guy" is and how he operates versus who is a "non-stat guy" and what he does differently. Tell me, for example what a pitching coach does or doesn't do in each case? I need to learn this stuff if I am to interact with such a smart stat guy like you, I guess:)

15 hours ago, The Hawk said:

Who enters the information into the computer regarding defensive set,  The shift employed, who the center fielder is. Did the ball hit off the side wall of the box seats. Etc. Etc. And who rates the difficulty of the catch to be made by the right fielder?  Also when the center fielder calls for a 50-50 ball or 40-60 or 30-70 ball and waves off the right fielder, does the right fielder get gigged for it?

  Who in baseball right now is responsible for providing the "raw data" that spits out this Inside Edge Fielding Stats and Range Factor? Is it the same kind of weinies who enter all of the subjective data into the PFF data base for the NFL, namely some geeks in Great Britain paid for looking at game films and rating the blocking of Offensive linemen the tackling of defensive line backers, the pass coverage of corners and safeties, etc? That system sucks BTW and is done by people who never played American football a day in their entire life:)

[southsider2k5]

7 minutes ago, The Hawk said:

Where did I get "proven wrong"? I asked a good question. What do you think that a stat guy manager does differently than a non "stat guy"?  It sure as hell doesn't play out during the course of a game other than in the preparation for the game. By that I mean, pitchers will still go over their preparation for how they are going to attack the line-up presented by the other team, the infield will review the hitter tendencies and how they will defense each player and the outfield will do the same. Then there will be a general review to make sure that the pitchers and the defense are in synch. 

   This has gone on for decades BTW. More data is available now and its easier to format and make available now than before but this same kind of stuff has been reviewed like forever by good managers and pitching coaches. Am I right? 

This is where I quit reading.

[RagahRagah]

3 minutes ago, The Hawk said:

Another insult. Knock that shit off. Since you called me "dense", tell me all about your knowledge of what a "stat guy" is and how he operates versus who is a "non-stat guy" and what he does differently. Tell me, for example what a pitching coach does or doesn't do in each case? I need to learn this stuff if I am to interact with such a smart stat guy like you, I guess:)

It may be insulting, but it is a technical term that is true. It's not like I'm calling you a weenie. 

Stat guys will regularly look at actual stats and adjust accordingly. That "This guy is batting .125 vs lefties but my gut says go with him" type of stuff is much less likely to occur. Sabermetrics are things these guys don't even care about. 

You want me to explain stuff that is entirely self explanatory. Ok.