Trevor Bauer Thread (Mazara Free Zone)

[AJ'S Cousin]

i thought this was a Bauer and mostly pitching. Now is it seems it's turned to Mazara dominating? Let's face it, if we got Bauer and another pitcher, Mickey Mouse could play right field if he could catch the ball and hit 250.

Hope we can get back on topic, PITCHING IS OUR NEED AS I POINTED OUT. 

[The Hawk]

3 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I'll agree, it's a good thought exercise. And I agree that pitching is the most pressing need at the moment.

 

I think I'd rather go the FA route, but I'd rather go with 2 SPs from the middle market than just one top end SP, & hope that Cease/Lopez/Dunning don't walk the yard all year long. 

Also, we're all speculating what the FA market will be like, and what FAs will get. My guess is that the top end of the FAs will get their money, or at least close to what they would "ordinarily" get in a regular year. Im also guessing that mid-level FAs, and guys that sat out (such as Q, Stroman, & Puig) will have to accept smaller and/or shorter offers this winter than usual. 

It will be interesting to see.

 

    I hope that they go hard after Bauer. That would give them three quality starting pitchers which I believe they will need to be a favorite in the American league. Adding an end of the rotation veteran lefty starter would be nice to have. That is about all that they need to add in the off season. Re-signing Colome would also be a priority in my book. The guy just knows how to get outs under stress.

[The Hawk]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Even if Mazara is better than you saw this year, are you willing to risk $6 million+ on him next year? He will make that if you offer him arbitration. If you are unwilling to offer him that money, then he is going to be a free agent on December 1. Thats' the determining factor - the arbitration deadline is the start of December, and if you offer him arbitration you are effectively guaranteeing him $6 million (you can cut him at the end of ST for $1.5 million).  

I think there's a decent chance he's better next year, but given what we saw this year, there's zero reason why I want to spend $9 million on a Mazara/Engel platoon. In a league where so many teams are going to be cost cutting, that's crazy money to spend on that weak of a platoon. Go spend that money on someone better, or let Mazara go to the FA market and try to sign him or someone else for a chance to earn $1 million in February.

 I'd be willing to let him go to arbitration and bet that he loses in it. The guy averaged 20 home runs a year for four straight years, got strep throat and got weak and never recovered from it. The way that I look at it is that the odds are that he will rebound well next year when he gets his strength back and Adam Engel is as good a defensive outfielder as there is in all of baseball. They need starting pitching as in a Trevor Bauer type guy.

Edited October 23, 2020 by The Hawk

[Two-Gun Pete]

1 hour ago, The Hawk said:

 

    I hope that they go hard after Bauer. That would give them three quality starting pitchers which I believe they will need to be a favorite in the American league. Adding an end of the rotation veteran lefty starter would be nice to have. That is about all that they need to add in the off season. Re-signing Colome would also be a priority in my book. The guy just knows how to get outs under stress.

I understand the attraction towards Bauer, I really do. And yes, adding him (@ perhaps ~$25MM/yr) would mean there would be 3 good SPs in the rotation. 

But under the likely payroll constraints, that would mean there would also likely be 2 shitty SPs, walking the yard every outing, and burning up the bullpen. More Cease starts (with his 5BB/9) and/or more Lopez starts (with his 5BB/9) means more Ross detwiler/detwiler-equivalent innings. Which in turn, will mean at best, a road wildcard playoff game, but more likely, this team on the outside looking in.

Again, I'd be stoked (initially) if Bauer were signed here. But we'd all go back to dry-heaving the first time Cease gives up 4 runs in 3 2/3IP & 80 pitches thrown, because he can't reliably locate his FB.

And then, with most of the payroll flexibility used up, there could be scant opportunity to add later on. (Remember, his agent isn't gonna give any discounts.) Just my perception at the moment, because I simply don't trust Lopez/Cease/Dunning/Kopech as yet.

Edited October 23, 2020 by Two-Gun Pete

[Dominikk85]

6 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Going to arb would mean he'll be on $6Mm+/yr, even if he loses. And, that's with him being under team control for 2021, and then FA thereafter. For a guy with a career 90 wrc+, a severe handedness deficit, and minimal range, Mazara aint worth it. Especially in what looks like a depressed FA market environment. 

This offseason, $6MM should go further than ~0.8 fWAR for a corner OFer.

Yeah winning or losing arb is usually a few hundred k difference but overall the number will still be pretty similar. Maybe it is 5.8 vs 6.3 or so.

Edited October 23, 2020 by Dominikk85

[turnin' two]

Man, did this thread prank me.  I came for Trevor Bauer updates and got Nomar Mazara updates.  Well played jerks.  

[chitownsportsfan]

Mazara will be lucky to have more than a NRI after the Sox non tender him.  At best he signs a 2-3 million deal for a team trying a pump and dump.

[RagahRagah]

11 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I understand the attraction towards Bauer, I really do. And yes, adding him (@ perhaps ~$25MM/yr) would mean there would be 3 good SPs in the rotation. 

But under the likely payroll constraints, that would mean there would also likely be 2 shitty SPs, walking the yard every outing, and burning up the bullpen. More Cease starts (with his 5BB/9) and/or more Lopez starts (with his 5BB/9) means more Ross detwiler/detwiler-equivalent innings. Which in turn, will mean at best, a road wildcard playoff game, but more likely, this team on the outside looking in.

Again, I'd be stoked (initially) if Bauer were signed here. But we'd all go back to dry-heaving the first time Cease gives up 4 runs in 3 2/3IP & 80 pitches thrown, because he can't reliably locate his FB.

And then, with most of the payroll flexibility used up, there could be scant opportunity to add later on. (Remember, his agent isn't gonna give any discounts.) Just my perception at the moment, because I simply don't trust Lopez/Cease/Dunning/Kopech as yet.

I hope you realize even in the worst case scenario of what you proposed, we'd still be in much better shape than we are now.

If we don't go after premium pitching, better pray on the moon Kopech comes back and gets back up to speed AND reaches his full potential and FAST, because otherwise we are not going to get over the hump. 

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, KonerkoFan1 said:

I hope you realize even in the worst case scenario of what you proposed, we'd still be in much better shape than we are now.

If we don't go after premium pitching, better pray on the moon Kopech comes back and gets back up to speed AND reaches his full potential and FAST, because otherwise we are not going to get over the hump. 

I see no doubts that we go after a top half starting pitcher.  Maybe it will be Bauer, maybe it won't. But I don't see a scenario where we go into 21 with only 2 trustworthy pitchers.  I think we pick up a top half guy, and then let the last four guys (Cease, Dunning, Kopech, Lopez) battle it out for the last two slots.  My complete guess is that Dunning and ReyLo win the spring battles, while Cease and Kopech open in Charlotte as starters (if there is a MiLB season)

[he gone.]

55 minutes ago, KonerkoFan1 said:

I hope you realize even in the worst case scenario of what you proposed, we'd still be in much better shape than we are now.

If we don't go after premium pitching, better pray on the moon Kopech comes back and gets back up to speed AND reaches his full potential and FAST, because otherwise we are not going to get over the hump. 

The other thing to add to the equation is timing. 

Timing - opportunity - taking advantage. If we are  confident we can mirror the success of a Rays or A's or Cardinals then we don't necessarily have to go out and get a Bauer or Stroman or make a trade -- however -- if you think our window is more along the lines of the Cubs, Royals, Indians, Padres model etc. then you almost have to make an aggressive move. I'd much rather be in the first basket and try and keep the window open for a decade plus .. but that takes a lot of confidence that Hahn can evaluate and make trades that are smart both for a current winning strategy as well as long term + corresponds with JR's pocketbook... so that means trades like Tommy Pham .... or Matthew Libratore for the Rays this past offseason. One was a trade to keep salary down, while the other was basically finding a replacement for him via a really nice prospect. It's a constant give and take battle that is tough to pull off. Based on JR past spending that probably is the right avenue, but who knows if that's the route we go. In that type of model you would actually be looking to trade Jose Abreu this offseason knowing you can slot in a cheaper Vaughn at 1b and find a decent DH internally in someone like Eloy, and then improve LF defense via FA at a lesser price. It's constant shuffling in terms of your assets to keep payroll down, maximizing return, and looking towards the future. 

Otherwise if the window is just 4-6 years you need to go out and sign a top guy. Because at the end of the day you have:

Kopech - innings limit

Crochet - innings limit and always the chance TJS pops up

Cease - somewhat innings limit on a full season + playoffs + wild/ineffective bouts

Dunning - innings limit

Stiever - innings limit

Some of your tier 2 SP guys who might make an impact -- also restricted

 

All in all - you're going to need your new manager to play this thing perfectly next year constantly pushing the gas pedal down, then easing off, then pushing down again while trying to win through a whole season and be fresh/prepped/healthy for a postseason run. That's a lot to ask. 

Which is why guys like Rodon/Lopez could very well be very important pieces on a team next year even if we dont want them to be. Innings need to be eaten (assuming 162 games) and they'll need to come from somewhere. (Names that fit this mold too are Kluber/Rich Hill) We may need to do a model like the Rays of having someone like a Kopech start and go 2-3IP and then bring in a Rodon or Lopez to fill another 2-4ip. This keeps your main assets in Kopech/Dunning/Crochet (maybe Cease) fresh for when you need them the most down the stretch. Aka -- look at the Dodgers and Rays -- both deploy this strategy a lot. 

If you dont' go out and get a Bauer or a Stroman then the likelihood of the Sox grinding through the playoffs will be much like the Braves this year ... a team that has the offense, but all in all, a wasted year because a tired Cease/Kopech/Dunning isn't going to matchup against Julio Urias (or the equivalent if you get a good SP team) in a Game 4 very well. 

 

[Flash]

I love Bauer but I'd be shocked if we sign him. I agree we need another high-quality starter but feel our best chance is to land him through trade. There are talented arms under reasonable contracts who might be available. Guys like Musgrove (Pirates), Burnes/Woorduff (Brewers) come to mind. 

[hi8is]

36 minutes ago, Flash said:

I'd be shocked if we sign him

Yup

[SonofaRoache]

3 hours ago, The Hawk said:

The thing is that they do not need to have above average players at all positions. Very few teams in the history of baseball have had that. The Sox, to me, are only a couple of solid starting pitchers away from being the favorite to win in the AL. 

Then he shouldn't be paid more than 5 million. We have the money and time to sign a good starting pitcher and a decent right fielder. We would like the right fielder to be on a 1 or two year deal that is over when big pay raises for other players start. I'd prefer to sign a pitcher or two to a short deal as well. 

[Jack Parkman]

32 minutes ago, AJ'S Cousin said:

i guess we should rename this the Bauer/Mazara blog. He's not coming back (hopefully). Let's drop Mazara and get on with PITCHING PLEASE!!!!!!

JR, unless he's brain dead will not spend 6 million on him. 

This is money that needs to spent on Stroman, Bauer or whoever else is available. We have about a 2 year window to get this done. 

We are in much better shape than the Cubs, our guys are younger and under control with great contracts to ACQUIRE 1 OR 2 STARTERS TO GET OVER THE LINE. 

LET'S SIGN SOME PITCHING. SLOWLY STRETCH OUT CROCHET AND KOPECH AND MOVE ON. Remember if the the Cubs trade Rizzo and or Bryant they are in another rebuild and are looking to dump salaries. 

JQ may be available then. 

Quintana is a free agent. 

[poppysox]

20 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Quintana is a free agent. 

He would be fine for the 5/6/7 slot.  

[Jack Parkman]

14 minutes ago, poppysox said:

He would be fine for the 5/6/7 slot.  

If they signed Stroman and Quintana/Gausman I'd be fine with that, because it's not the Sox MO to sign the top pitcher on the market. I won't believe that they'll land Bauer until the ink is dry and the presser is announced. 

They'd rather spread it around in B/C FA and fill multiple holes than spend for the A ones. 

If ever there was a time to break the mold, it's now as the Sox only have 2 holes: A #2 SP and RF. 

Edited October 23, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[poppysox]

19 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

If they signed Stroman and Quintana/Gausman I'd be fine with that, because it's not the Sox MO to sign the top pitcher on the market. I won't believe that they'll land Bauer until the ink is dry and the presser is announced. 

They'd rather spread it around in B/C FA and fill multiple holes than spend for the A ones. 

If ever there was a time to break the mold, it's now as the Sox only have 2 holes: A #2 SP and RF. 

I agree with your take on our needs.  My belief is that aside from the top people like Bauer...most available players will be signed for 50-65% of the usual norms.  Not that many buyers out there.  JR won't blow this unique opportunity to grab the brass ring.😊

[RagahRagah]

6 hours ago, BrianAnderson said:

The other thing to add to the equation is timing. 

Timing - opportunity - taking advantage. If we are  confident we can mirror the success of a Rays or A's or Cardinals then we don't necessarily have to go out and get a Bauer or Stroman or make a trade -- however -- if you think our window is more along the lines of the Cubs, Royals, Indians, Padres model etc. then you almost have to make an aggressive move. I'd much rather be in the first basket and try and keep the window open for a decade plus .. but that takes a lot of confidence that Hahn can evaluate and make trades that are smart both for a current winning strategy as well as long term + corresponds with JR's pocketbook... so that means trades like Tommy Pham .... or Matthew Libratore for the Rays this past offseason. One was a trade to keep salary down, while the other was basically finding a replacement for him via a really nice prospect. It's a constant give and take battle that is tough to pull off. Based on JR past spending that probably is the right avenue, but who knows if that's the route we go. In that type of model you would actually be looking to trade Jose Abreu this offseason knowing you can slot in a cheaper Vaughn at 1b and find a decent DH internally in someone like Eloy, and then improve LF defense via FA at a lesser price. It's constant shuffling in terms of your assets to keep payroll down, maximizing return, and looking towards the future. 

Otherwise if the window is just 4-6 years you need to go out and sign a top guy. Because at the end of the day you have:

Kopech - innings limit

Crochet - innings limit and always the chance TJS pops up

Cease - somewhat innings limit on a full season + playoffs + wild/ineffective bouts

Dunning - innings limit

Stiever - innings limit

Some of your tier 2 SP guys who might make an impact -- also restricted

 

All in all - you're going to need your new manager to play this thing perfectly next year constantly pushing the gas pedal down, then easing off, then pushing down again while trying to win through a whole season and be fresh/prepped/healthy for a postseason run. That's a lot to ask. 

Which is why guys like Rodon/Lopez could very well be very important pieces on a team next year even if we dont want them to be. Innings need to be eaten (assuming 162 games) and they'll need to come from somewhere. (Names that fit this mold too are Kluber/Rich Hill) We may need to do a model like the Rays of having someone like a Kopech start and go 2-3IP and then bring in a Rodon or Lopez to fill another 2-4ip. This keeps your main assets in Kopech/Dunning/Crochet (maybe Cease) fresh for when you need them the most down the stretch. Aka -- look at the Dodgers and Rays -- both deploy this strategy a lot. 

If you dont' go out and get a Bauer or a Stroman then the likelihood of the Sox grinding through the playoffs will be much like the Braves this year ... a team that has the offense, but all in all, a wasted year because a tired Cease/Kopech/Dunning isn't going to matchup against Julio Urias (or the equivalent if you get a good SP team) in a Game 4 very well. 

 

And honestly I'd say the majority of us don't have that confidence in Hahn. And with good reason.

[AJ'S Cousin]

we have the money to sign 2 tier 2 pitchers ala JQ and Stroman. I don't know who else is available as a FA, please chime in with some names that i'm not aware of that may be better options I wouldn't mind going to war with a Rotation of Gio, Dallas, JQ, Stroman and Cease until Kopech is ready or Crochet is stretched out.Kpech probably needs to be stretched out with taking the year off. Don't know if his head will be on straight. His Ex Wife i think really messed up his head Lopez goes to the bullpen for long relief until he gets his head out of his ass along with Dunning and Burdi. Not interested in trading and giving up any of our up and coming stars unless it's a stud # 1 or #2 starter or a big time stud right fielder. if JR had the balls he'd sign GEORGE SPRINGER to play right but that's a separate discussion that i may start later after the game. Engel, Garcia, Collins  and Mendick as the bench with Vaughn as DH. 

 Encarnacion, gone

Mazara gone

Gonzalez, gone

Rodon gone 

McCann gone

Colome probably gone JR, won't get into a bidding war for him. I wouldn't him coming back but not a 20 mill for 2 years. 15 mill i can see, it 

 Worth the gamble on spending on 2 SP's. Huer and Bummer might be able to get it done as closer. Go with Engel in right until the trade deadline. We can carry him. if you add it up with who's gone from the list above, we'd have a ton of money to spend IF it's a normal season with people in the park, concessions, parking etc. IF WE HAVE A NORMAL SEASON. If not all bets are off. 

Looking forward to your thoughts.

 

[The Hawk]

7 hours ago, SonofaRoache said:

Then he shouldn't be paid more than 5 million. We have the money and time to sign a good starting pitcher and a decent right fielder. We would like the right fielder to be on a 1 or two year deal that is over when big pay raises for other players start. I'd prefer to sign a pitcher or two to a short deal as well. 

 

  I just don't think that we need to add a right fielder. They have plenty of offensive talent on this team. They need pitching and that should be without a doubt the focus for winning the entire thing next season.

 

[The Hawk]

8 hours ago, SonofaRoache said:

Then he shouldn't be paid more than 5 million. We have the money and time to sign a good starting pitcher and a decent right fielder. We would like the right fielder to be on a 1 or two year deal that is over when big pay raises for other players start. I'd prefer to sign a pitcher or two to a short deal as well. 

   I think that in today's baseball world, you pretty much have to really look a bit different at players who were sick or didn't perform well during this silly season. Things were just plain different from spring training all through to where we are now. I just don't worry about what kind of performance the White Sox will get out of right field next year and whether they pay couple of guys  $5M or $7.5M really doesn't mean much to me

[The Hawk]

2 hours ago, AJ'S Cousin said:

we have the money to sign 2 tier 2 pitchers ala JQ and Stroman. I don't know who else is available as a FA, please chime in with some names that i'm not aware of that may be better options I wouldn't mind going to war with a Rotation of Gio, Dallas, JQ, Stroman and Cease until Kopech is ready or Crochet is stretched out.Kpech probably needs to be stretched out with taking the year off. Don't know if his head will be on straight. His Ex Wife i think really messed up his head Lopez goes to the bullpen for long relief until he gets his head out of his ass along with Dunning and Burdi. Not interested in trading and giving up any of our up and coming stars unless it's a stud # 1 or #2 starter or a big time stud right fielder. if JR had the balls he'd sign GEORGE SPRINGER to play right but that's a separate discussion that i may start later after the game. Engel, Garcia, Collins  and Mendick as the bench with Vaughn as DH. 

 Encarnacion, gone

Mazara gone

Gonzalez, gone

Rodon gone 

McCann gone

Colome probably gone JR, won't get into a bidding war for him. I wouldn't him coming back but not a 20 mill for 2 years. 15 mill i can see, it 

 Worth the gamble on spending on 2 SP's. Huer and Bummer might be able to get it done as closer. Go with Engel in right until the trade deadline. We can carry him. if you add it up with who's gone from the list above, we'd have a ton of money to spend IF it's a normal season with people in the park, concessions, parking etc. IF WE HAVE A NORMAL SEASON. If not all bets are off. 

Looking forward to your thoughts.

 

I think re-signing Colome should be a priority first of all. He's been a top three closer for several years now and shows no signs of deteriorating skills. Hoping for someone to slide into a main closer's role is a risk that I wouldn't take especially once the play-offs start. I bring in Mercedes to be the back-up catcher and DH him also as I do not think Collins can hit major league pitching and is no great shakes as a catcher either. I would love to keep McCann also but with Vaughn coming onto the scene, he will need at least 250-300 ABs next year. 

   I've already stated that I'd keep Mazara and platoon him with Engle as well as Engel spelling Robert and Jimenez when needed. 

I really want Bauer as the number one priority and a heathy left handed end of the rotation starter. I question if JQ will fit that health requirement  but the available inventory of veteran left handed starters are all pretty tweaky right now so its anyone's guess. 

[The Hawk]

5 hours ago, KonerkoFan1 said:

And honestly I'd say the majority of us don't have that confidence in Hahn. And with good reason.

I have to ask. What in your minds has Hahn done badly? I have to say that I am shocked about that opinion.

[RagahRagah]

54 minutes ago, The Hawk said:

I have to ask. What in your minds has Hahn done badly? I have to say that I am shocked about that opinion.

If that opinion shocks you then you haven't been on this board much this year. There has been a ton of analysis on how bad his FA signings have gone, not to mention how many have been missed out on or struck out on. Hahn's strong point has been extensions.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, The Hawk said:

I have to ask. What in your minds has Hahn done badly? I have to say that I am shocked about that opinion.

Not trying to be a Hahn hater, but have you seen his free agent record prior to this past offseason?  It’s epically bad outside of the original Abreu signing.

Edited October 24, 2020 by Chicago White Sox