MLB 2020-21 off season catch all

[wegner]

The $ will be spent....in San Diego

[hi8is]

18 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

He Who Shall Not Be Named extension. 14 years/340 million. 😱

340 million dollars plus Shields, steep deal.

[RagahRagah]

28 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

Tatis extension. 14 years/340 million. 😱

This one just never stops hurting for me. One of the ultimate "What could have beens."

[thedoctor]

30 minutes ago, RagahRagah said:

This one just never stops hurting for me. One of the ultimate "What could have beens."

between this and trubisky instead of watson/mahomes i feel like i’m being sports punished. 

[Middle Buffalo]

1 hour ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

This seem like a horrible extension to anyone else? Hasn't even played a seasons worth of games yet. Makes our deals look a lot better but we shall see.

I agree. The Sox signings of Sale, Moncada, etc. makes sense because they are giving the player more money now in exchange for a little more team control. Not sure why the Padres would lock Tatis up as if he was a free agent. Why not wait a few years?

[HOFHurt35]

25 minutes ago, thedoctor said:

between this and trubisky instead of watson/mahomes i feel like i’m being sports punished. 

Tim Anderson is a way better consolation than Mitch Trubisky. 

[HOFHurt35]

1 hour ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

This seem like a horrible extension to anyone else? Hasn't even played a seasons worth of games yet. Makes our deals look a lot better but we shall see.

💯. Where is the team benefit to a deal like this? And no trade clause on top of it. 

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

This seem like a horrible extension to anyone else? Hasn't even played a seasons worth of games yet. Makes our deals look a lot better but we shall see.

It's an average of 25 million for a kid who could have gotten a 400 or 500 million deal in free agency. 

[southsider2k5]

 

[RagahRagah]

1 hour ago, HOFHurt35 said:

Tim Anderson is a way better consolation than Mitch Trubisky. 

I can at least say that. But imagine Tatis at SS and Tim and 2nd. Yummy.

[Bob Sacamano]

1 hour ago, HOFHurt35 said:

Tim Anderson is a way better consolation than Mitch Trubisky. 

Eh you'd probably have both. I do agree it seems so early. If you're going to spend that kind of money anyway, it could have waited a couple more years. 

[SoxAce]

Fun fact. Tatis' contract ends in 2035. The Mets would still have to pay Bobby Bonilla one more year afterwards. 

[southsideirish71]

54 minutes ago, RagahRagah said:

I can at least say that. But imagine Tatis at SS and Tim and 2nd. Yummy.

Dollar Bill JR is probably thrilled that someone else is paying for this kid.  He probably wakes up in a cold sweat thinking about someone asking him to pay that.

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, HOFHurt35 said:

💯. Where is the team benefit to a deal like this? And no trade clause on top of it. 

It’s a calculated risk.

Of course, the injuries are always the biggest factor, but still less so than for a pitcher.

It’s going to be a long time until anyone beats Cole’s deal.  Pitchers are even more unpredictable, and now there’s going to be a ball change and god knows what the impact will be from an injury-perspective.

For the fans of SD, it means no backing down to the Dodgers, period...and that starting him on Opening Day, 2019, instead of fighting for that extra year of control was worth it for the general good will/partnership they created.

As it stood, the Padres only had four more years of control remaining.

It demonstrates commitment.  They don’t plan to bail at the earliest convenience, like the Marlins did with Buehrle.  It’s planting a flag in the ground and answering the Bauer deal with one of their own.

For Tatis and his family, it might end up costing him $100-150 million down the road, plus endorsements that would be more likely on the East Coast in NY or Boston.   That said, with digital media becoming increasingly prevalent, being on the West Coast isn’t a killer like in past years. 
 

The equivalent for the White Sox would be extensions for Giolito, Vaughn and Anderson (old deal torn up) announced today in succession.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, manbearpuig said:

Eh you'd probably have both. I do agree it seems so early. If you're going to spend that kind of money anyway, it could have waited a couple more years. 

And post Covid economic recovery, with the Mets, Angels, Rangers, Dodgers, Yankees, Giants, Cubs, etc., bidding...and revenues stabilized, how much more does he get on the open market?   A superstar turning just 25/26, like Harper and Machado two cycles ago, at the absolute peak rather than beginning descent at 29-31.

Think of the Lionel Messi deal.  Think of worldwide vs. local/regional impacts.  He could very easily be the face of the sport because Trout eschews the limelight, Tatis embraces it.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

It's hilarious to me the amount of people on Twitter who are assessing this from the Tatis side of "I dunno, he is risking potentially selling himself short by $100M or so by taking this deal so early" and not from the inordinately obvious side of the amount of risk the Padres are taking on by giving $300M to an young kid who hasn't even played a full season yet and has already sustained multiple injuries.

The risk is HEAVILY on the side of the Padres here, not Tatis, who at minimum now has $340M if his career ended tomorrow.

[iWiN4PreP]

Absolutely amazing. What a model organization the padres are

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

It's hilarious to me the amount of people on Twitter who are assessing this from the Tatis side of "I dunno, he is risking potentially selling himself short by $100M or so by taking this deal so early" and not from the inordinately obvious side of the amount of risk the Padres are taking on by giving $300M to an young kid who hasn't even played a full season yet and has already sustained multiple injuries.

The risk is HEAVILY on the side of the Padres here, not Tatis, who at minimum now has $340M if his career ended tomorrow.

Not exactly.

Moncada, Robert and Jimenez are the same type of calculated risks.

Nobody can guarantee Luis will be a 5-6 fWAR performer.   If you count the original signing deal and the extension, there’s nevertheless at least a chance it goes wrong.

A year ago, Moncada looked like a sure thing vs. Machado, right?

Jimenez is also an injury risk and he’s never going to be able to put up massive fWAR numbers due to defense, base running, etc.

The thing is the Padres can afford to do this because of their pitching depth, at the major league level, Clevinger in 2022 and in the minors.

They’re staking claim to being one of the best 2-3 teams in baseball for another 5-6 years, and their best pitcher, Gore, will be dirt cheap his first three years.

The White Sox have their risk in veterans Grandal, Abreu, Keuchel and Lynn (lesser extent).   If they don’t make it to the playoffs or advance a round, they’re going to have a tough time coming up with enough money to entice Giolito.  It would be around 50% bigger than the largest deal in team history, which just got inflated by Tatis’ deal and another $5-7 trillion in the US economy.  Unless Kopech, Cease or someone like Kelley becomes that next ace, you’re going to have to buy one at top dollar on the open market.  Not the White Sox game.  It’s also pretty clear we don’t have the trade capital to pull it off, because they need to keep Kopech and Vaughn.  

Overall, if Robert, Kopech and Moncada become stars, the White Sox will be fine.  Two of them is enough for the Central.  Just one puts the whole contention window at risk.

(Now you can obviously argue that Myers and Hosmer are risks too, but if they were really concerned they would have dealt Myers at peak relative value this offseason.)   The Padres are investing in their future, the White Sox are waiting for the payoff before they will invest further.  From a typical business standpoint, that approach is certainly preferable if you want to have the very best product in your industry.  It’s definitely a better way to get the fans on your side than hiring Tony LaRussa.

 

 

 

[caulfield12]

Tatis, Jr., has played exactly 76% of one full big league season and put up a 6.5 fWAR.

Extrapolated out, that would be an 8.4 for a full season, done earlier than Trout.

 

Since you’re not going to be able to acquire Trout, who would be a better option in the game to invest that kind of money in?

And what would be the impact on the Padres’ fanbase if he walked in four years? 
 

[South Side Hit Men]

34 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Tatis, Jr., has played exactly 76% of one full big league season and put up a 6.5 fWAR.

Extrapolated out, that would be an 8.4 for a full season, done earlier than Trout.

Since you’re not going to be able to acquire Trout, who would be a better option in the game to invest that kind of money in?

And what would be the impact on the Padres’ fanbase if he walked in four years? 
 

San Diego is a great city to live or visit. The Padres completely own that town at this point after the Chargers left to play in front of empty seats or opposing team fans in Los Angeles after their failed taxpayer shakedown stadium scheme. The Tatis Jr. deal will pay off with significant Padres ticket sales once fans are allowed to return. It's a fair deal on both sides. 

Many here are old enough to have enjoyed and appreciated Frank Thomas' time with the White Sox. There is a good chance Luis Robert can grow to be a franchise player. Hopeful regime change occurs before Robert's current deal expires, and new ownership will attract, sign and promote top MLB players beyond a couple of "team friendly" deals.

[joejoesox]

2 hours ago, iWiN4PreP said:

Absolutely amazing. What a model organization the padres are

agreed, I think they're my NL team 

[caulfield12]

59 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

San Diego is a great city to live or visit. The Padres completely own that town at this point after the Chargers left to play in front of empty seats or opposing team fans in Los Angeles after their failed taxpayer shakedown stadium scheme. The Tatis Jr. deal will pay off with significant Padres ticket sales once fans are allowed to return. It's a fair deal on both sides. 

Many here are old enough to have enjoyed and appreciated Frank Thomas' time with the White Sox. There is a good chance Luis Robert can grow to be a franchise player. Hopeful regime change occurs before Robert's current deal expires, and new ownership will attract, sign and promote top MLB players beyond a couple of "team friendly" deals.

They’re going to pay Luis Robert $40 million (combined) in 2026 and 27 when he’s 28 and 29, his last two peak years going by the traditional 27-29 as that peak range up until the steroid era.

In my lifetime, though, Konerko and Frank Thomas were the only homegrown players they kept into their 30’s.

I have watched a lifetime of some of my favorite players become increasingly more expensive, then leave.

This is fine for the Rays or A’s, but Chicago deserves better.

 

And, all things considered, stars win in the postseason.   The 2005 White Sox are one of those rare exceptions.  In the age of super teams, that’s becoming ever more difficult.  Luis Robert has the best chance of all, but still might end up being closer to Mike Cameron, Eric Davis or Devon White with power.

 

Edited February 18, 2021 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

3 hours ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

It's hilarious to me the amount of people on Twitter who are assessing this from the Tatis side of "I dunno, he is risking potentially selling himself short by $100M or so by taking this deal so early" and not from the inordinately obvious side of the amount of risk the Padres are taking on by giving $300M to an young kid who hasn't even played a full season yet and has already sustained multiple injuries.

The risk is HEAVILY on the side of the Padres here, not Tatis, who at minimum now has $340M if his career ended tomorrow.

Exactly. If he is as great as many think, doesn't get hurt, and becomes an all time great, he may have cost himself $100 million, but it's $100 million he would never use. $340 million vs. $440 million will make no difference in his life. Down the road with his heirs, yes. It's a no brainer for him to sign IMO. 

This is a huge risk for the Padres. It will probably be the last contract of the kid's career. You wonder if he will be able to stay healthy and motivated.

Edited February 18, 2021 by Dick Allen

[Balta1701]

22 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Exactly. If he is as great as many think, doesn't get hurt, and becomes an all time great, he may have cost himself $100 million, but it's $100 million he would never use. $340 million vs. $440 million will make no difference in his life. Down the road with his heirs, yes. It's a no brainer for him to sign IMO. 

This is a huge risk for the Padres. It will probably be the last contract of the kid's career. You wonder if he will be able to stay healthy and motivated.

He might have cost himself $100 million if there’s another pandemic and baseball goes half a decade without fans. If he was an all time great and salaries continued growing at 5% a year, he probably gave up twice that. If the next CBA were more balanced than the current one, he would have given up even more than that.

[Dick Allen]

13 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

He might have cost himself $100 million if there’s another pandemic and baseball goes half a decade without fans. If he was an all time great and salaries continued growing at 5% a year, he probably gave up twice that. If the next CBA were more balanced than the current one, he would have given up even more than that.

Despite that, if you are him, why wouldn't you sign it? It's more money than you will ever need. Are you really concerned about heirs 3 generations from now? For all you know they may be assholes.