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BrianAnderson

MLB Free Agents (Prediction Thread)

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Someone did this last year and it was fun to go through at the end. Seeing as this off-season could go in any direction thought it'd be a good exercise. My pick is always the FIRST team I listed

Top FA's, Guess of years and $$ + team

Trevor Bauer: Yankees, Mets, White Sox (I can dream). $4 years - $170mm

JT Realmuto: Blue Jays, Mets, Phillies. 6 years - 130mm

G. Springer: Braves, Tigers, White Sox, SF Giants. 5 years - 110mm

M. Ozuna: Giants, Braves, Cardinals. 4 years, 85mm

DJ LaMahieu: Yankees, Nationals, Mets. 3 years, 65mm

D. Gregorious: Angels, Phillies. 2 year, 30mm

M. Tanaka: Yankees, Blue Jays, Angels. 2, 30mm

J. Odorizzi: Twins, Blue Jays, White Sox, Cubs. 2 years, 20mm

M Brantley: Astros, Dodgers, Nationals. 3 years, 40mm

J. Turner: Dodgers. 1 year, 10mm

M. Semien: Athletics, Phillies, Angels. 1 year, 12mm bounceback

J. McCann: Mets, Phillies, Cardinals. 4 years, 36mm

J. Pederson: White Sox. Angels. 1 year, 10mm (unfortunately)

Quintana: White Sox, Blue Jays, Yankees, Giants, Red Sox. 3 years, 24mm

Cruz: Twins 2 year deal, but w big buyout. 1 year, 15mm, $5mm buyout, 10mm year two. 

 

Other Names: 

Kluber, Charlie Morton, Rich Hill, Yadi, Wainwright, Carlos Santana, Colome, Cole Hamels

 

Quick hitters: I think the Sox grab one of Quintana, Hamels. I think Yadi and Wainwright ultimately sign back with the Cards. Kluber takes a surprise 2-3 year deal with a team like the Braves, Blue Jays, Twins, etc. Rich Hill signs with the Dodgers. Charlie Morton "retires" aka sits out a bit of the year. 

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50 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

Someone did this last year and it was fun to go through at the end. Seeing as this off-season could go in any direction thought it'd be a good exercise. My pick is always the FIRST team I listed

Top FA's, Guess of years and $$ + team

Trevor Bauer: Yankees,  $4 years - $140mm

JT Realmuto: Mets, Phillies. 6 years - 130mm

G. Springer: White Sox 5 for 125

M. Ozuna: Braves 4 years, 75mm

DJ LaMahieu: Yankees, 3 years, 65mm

D. Gregorious: Phillies. 

M. Tanaka: Yankees,

J. Odorizzi: Twins

M Brantley: Astros

J. Turner: Dodgers. 1 year, 10mm

M. Semien: Phillies

J. McCann: Tigers

J. Pederson: Astros 

Quintana: White Sox, 

Cruz: Twins  

Kluber - White Sox

Morton - Rays

Hill - Dodgers

Yadi - White Sox

Wainwright - Cardinals

Santana - Rays

Colome - White Sox

Yates - White Sox

Hamels - Doesnt sign before season

Kluber, Charlie Morton, Rich Hill, Yadi, Wainwright, Carlos Santana, Colome, Cole Hamels

 

My Updates

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3 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

G. Springer: White Sox 5 for 125

Quintana: White Sox

Kluber - White Sox

Yadi - White Sox

Colome - White Sox

Yates - White Sox

My Updates

I picture Jerry rather taking his chances with COVID versus handing out that much cash.  

Hahn:

  • Colome 2 years $7-8M/year
  • Walker SP for 2 years $11M/year + Team Option, (Walker)
  • (If two pitchers aren't signed) Jackie Bradley Jr. if two pitchers aren't signed 2 years $9M/year + Team Option.

Jerry:

  • SoxTalk = Spaulding
  • Jerry = Judge Smails

 

 

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If they decide to go the free agent route, I'd go after Tanaka as my middle of the rotation right hander and Quintana as my end of the rotation lefty. I have always liked both of these pitchers. Quin had a season lost by an accident and his arm should be well rested and has a lot of mileage  still on it. Tanaka isn't flashy but he knows his job and is a very dependable innings eater. The thing about a pitching staff is that you can pretty much know that at least two of your starters are going to go down during the season so that is where the competition between the young guns comes into it. There are going to be a lot of surprises on the Sox staff next year and I can't wait.

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I predict no major FAs will sign here. We'll probably get Pederson and maybe another bargain bin 1 year vet ala Gio Gonzalez again. I honestly believe last year was a mirage with Grandal and a near miss with Wheeler.

The events with Jerry and TLR will likely play a small role in this, IMO. Probably Covid, too. 

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20 hours ago, BrianAnderson said:

Trevor Bauer: Yankees, Mets, White Sox (I can dream). $4 years - $170mm

$42.5M AAV for Bauer over 4 years?  Ya, no.

I could maybe see the bidding get into that AAV range if he actually does what he said he was going to do and take 1 year deals.  But no way he's getting that over 4 years.  

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If our FA splash is Quintana and Pederson then we have failed.  Pederson last year is basically our DH who can play the field.   Might as well buy him a parrot.  

Edited by southsideirish71
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19 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

$42.5M AAV for Bauer over 4 years?  Ya, no.

I could maybe see the bidding get into that AAV range if he actually does what he said he was going to do and take 1 year deals.  But no way he's getting that over 4 years.  

I'd totally take him at that for 4 years rather than 7 or 8 year deal like Cole. Let's say Cole has one bad year due to age at the end of his deal ... or blows out his arm (understand that can happen in a 4 year deal too). Spread that $36mm over 8 years and you have $40.5mm, but you're paying him for 7/8 years still at $40mm+ while he likely declines into the end of his career. 

Just me I'd pay the premium on a short deal with an arm. Or even a bat.  Betts got 12/365 - or $30mm a year. His value is tied to his legs/defense a lot -- once he starts slowing down that deal will be ugly. I'd give him 5 years and $210mm and sleep fine during his 28-33 years. It'd be tough for him to get a 7 year, 155mm deal at 33/34 years old. 

The premium you have to pay on a short-term deal is worth it IMO. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, BrianAnderson said:

I'd totally take him at that for 4 years rather than 7 or 8 year deal like Cole. Let's say Cole has one bad year due to age at the end of his deal ... or blows out his arm (understand that can happen in a 4 year deal too). Spread that $36mm over 8 years and you have $40.5mm, but you're paying him for 7/8 years still at $40mm+ while he likely declines into the end of his career. 

Just me I'd pay the premium on a short deal with an arm. Or even a bat.  Betts got 12/365 - or $30mm a year. His value is tied to his legs/defense a lot -- once he starts slowing down that deal will be ugly. I'd give him 5 years and $210mm and sleep fine during his 28-33 years. It'd be tough for him to get a 7 year, 155mm deal at 33/34 years old. 

The premium you have to pay on a short-term deal is worth it IMO. 

 

 

The trick is that you are better doing 7/$185 than 4/$170. The lower AAV gets you more ability to spend money on additional players in the early years when you are expecting to compete, the money moved to later years should be less valuable since revenue (virus aside) has gone up at a rate well above that of inflation, and if the player gives you any value the last 3 years, you get that value almost as a bonus.

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I just don't think you're getting Bauer at that number though .... he theoretically should get every bit of $30-32mm over 7/8. 

 

Also, my opinion, from my perspective is you're better off being the Rays/A's/Cardinals and balancing it all over a long period time and being very calculated. However, if you're not doing that, then I think it makes sense to go for broke during a 5 year period via guys like Bauer. I mean look at the Cubs ... it's back to tear down and bottom of the division for 3-5 years already. You either put the gas pedal down and have a top 3 payroll during the window or you actively trade guys like Abreu now and balance the long-run. Pissing around in the middle gets you nothing ... unfortunately Reinsdorf will be in that middle w Joc Pederson and guys like Quintana, Paxton, Hamels, etc. 

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Bauer isn't getting $40M+ AAV on a multiyear deal.  I promise you.  

Edited by ChiSox59

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15 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

I just don't think you're getting Bauer at that number though .... he theoretically should get every bit of $30-32mm over 7/8.


Even if MLB eliminated the rule prohibiting doctoring baseballs, Trevor Bauer would not get anything close to that term or AAV.

Count me on record stating I want nothing to do with this guy, in terms of salary or clubhouse impact.

There are legitimate reasons why the Cleveland Indians wanted nothing to do with him and finally had enough after one of his tantrums, and he has been toxic wherever he plays.

Add to that his demand to disrupt a teams’ rotation with his every fourth day nonsense. He’s also beaten the odds regarding avoiding TJ / major injury. Chances are he breaks down sooner rather than later. His teams have only advanced once, and he has one postseason win during his first decade in baseball.

Hard pass.

https://defector.com/trevor-bauer-should-just-admit-it/

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They aren't going to go after Bauer. He just doesn't fit the make-up of the locker room. What the Sox really have going for themselves is an almost ideal clubhouse right now(assuming that LaRussa doesn't F it up). Bring in a good stable guy like they did with Kuechel who knows how to win and who can be a role model for the young guns that they have and be done with it. Bauer won't fit.

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1 hour ago, The Hawk said:

They aren't going to go after Bauer. He just doesn't fit the make-up of the locker room. What the Sox really have going for themselves is an almost ideal clubhouse right now(assuming that LaRussa doesn't F it up). Bring in a good stable guy like they did with Kuechel who knows how to win and who can be a role model for the young guns that they have and be done with it. Bauer won't fit.

How does Bauer not fit in the clubhouse?  Seems to me his swagger would fit in just fine.  

Not saying the sox get him, but I'd probably prefer the Sox offer 4/$130M to Bauer and sign a stop gap in RF than sign Springer to 5/$115M.  Obviously I'd take either, but I think the money is better spent on an absolute stud in the rotation.  Sox offense will still be really good without Springer.  Can't say the same about the rotation without another TOR SP.  

Edited by ChiSox59
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1 hour ago, The Hawk said:

They aren't going to go after Bauer. He just doesn't fit the make-up of the locker room. What the Sox really have going for themselves is an almost ideal clubhouse right now(assuming that LaRussa doesn't F it up). Bring in a good stable guy like they did with Kuechel who knows how to win and who can be a role model for the young guns that they have and be done with it. Bauer won't fit.

Bauer doesn’t fit, but La Russa does 🤔

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1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

How does Bauer not fit in the lockerroom?  Seems to me his swagger would fit in just fine.  

Swagger is one thing. Having an edge is one thing. But how does this same guy react when someone makes an error behind him? What happens when his shit is bad for awhile? I'm just saying that this guy isn't a Verlander to my mind. I just wouldn't spen that much money on a guy who has that kind of a mouth and demeanor.

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Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

Bauer doesn’t fit, but La Russa does 🤔

I didn't say that at all. I said that LaRussa has proven that he can manage a team to a championship and has done it many times.

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3 minutes ago, The Hawk said:

Swagger is one thing. Having an edge is one thing. But how does this same guy react when someone makes an error behind him? What happens when his shit is bad for awhile? I'm just saying that this guy isn't a Verlander to my mind. I just wouldn't spen that much money on a guy who has that kind of a mouth and demeanor.

I like his mouth and demeanor, personally.  Dude is a fuckin' bulldog and I love it.  I could see him rubbing some guys the wrong way, but I really don't think that would be the case with the Sox clubhouse.  

But every team wants this guy in their rotation.  Sox are VERY unlikely to pay what it'll take to get him, IMO.  Could see them offering him what they offered Wheeler, but that will come up well shy.  

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1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

I like his mouth and demeanor, personally.  Dude is a fuckin' bulldog and I love it.  I could see him rubbing some guys the wrong way, but I really don't think that would be the case with the Sox clubhouse.  

But every team wants this guy in their rotation.  Sox are VERY unlikely to pay what it'll take to get him, IMO.  Could see them offering him what they offered Wheeler, but that will come up well shy.  

Maybe you are right. I don't know. I do think that the Sox will not spend all of that money for him. I just do not see it in the cards nor do I think that he is the right guy that they will focus their attention on. We will see.

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2 minutes ago, The Hawk said:

Maybe you are right. I don't know. I do think that the Sox will not spend all of that money for him. I just do not see it in the cards nor do I think that he is the right guy that they will focus their attention on. We will see.

Sounds like we are mostly in agreement.  I just don't think he'd be a poor clubhouse fit with the Sox, but understand where you're coming from.  Who exactly do you see taking issue with him strutting around the mound or talking shit?  Literally no one comes to mind for me. 

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20 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Bauer doesn’t fit, but La Russa does 🤔

This right here.  Bauer is a lockerrrom problem.  Machado is a lockerroom problem.  Kopech has off of the field issues.

Tony is all of those things, and worse, but he is going to lead us?  Um, sure.

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4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

This right here.  Bauer is a lockerrrom problem.  Machado is a lockerroom problem.  Kopech has off of the field issues.

Tony is all of those things, and worse, but he is going to lead us?  Um, sure.

Kopech is somehow a bad guy because he got a divorce and missed the season due to a pandemic 😑

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1 minute ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

Kopech is somehow a bad guy because he got a divorce and missed the season due to a pandemic 😑

Losing Kopech in 2020 sucked and was a kick in the balls.  But taking the long view, he did the Sox a favor.  Since he hasn't pithced for 2+ seasons, they can't just throw him in the fire and expect him to pitch a full MLB season, so they can super easily play the control game and get the year back they lost by the TJS.  

Certainly could have used Kopech this past season, but I'll happily take him for a full 162 in 2026 as opposed to 10 starts in 2020.  

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3 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

Sounds like we are mostly in agreement.  I just don't think he'd be a poor clubhouse fit with the Sox, but understand where you're coming from.  Who exactly do you see taking issue with him strutting around the mound or talking shit?  Literally no one comes to mind for me. 

Well, that is  great question. In the old days, I'd say that the guys on his team who may end up getting plunked as a result of his antics. However, with the sissification of modern baseball, that probably isn't the problem now as it might have been a few years ago. This White Sox team is a fun loving group for sure but I do not see them acting out and showing up other players. Do you? I don't see Anderson as being an asshole for the little acting out that he does. Don't think that in this day and age with a lot of the showboats in baseball that he is anykind of problem guy.

Personally, I never like players showing other players up and if someone plunked me or one of my guys, the guy who did it was going to get hit himself. I do know enough about baseball, though, if a guy ends up getting hit because his teammate talks shit or goes after a player on another team, the pitcher who does this shit on my team is going to be challenged by me for doing it. That does happen.

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3 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

Losing Kopech in 2020 sucked and was a kick in the balls.  But taking the long view, he did the Sox a favor.  Since he hasn't pithced for 2+ seasons, they can't just throw him in the fire and expect him to pitch a full MLB season, so they can super easily play the control game and get the year back they lost by the TJS.  

Certainly could have used Kopech this past season, but I'll happily take him for a full 162 in 2026 as opposed to 10 starts in 2020.  

We will see what happens. One thing for sure. This is going to be an interesting situation for this team.

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