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flavum

2021 Hall of Fame Ballot

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16 minutes ago, flavum said:

Good list, but I would disqualify Cano and Arod, and I'm dumping Manny going forward.  Among players that debuted after 1999, I'd add Ichiro, Sabathia, Molina, and probably Utley. I would want Roy Oswalt and Johan Santana reinstated on the ballot.

I understand the dilemma with the roids players.

Ichiro was borderline, only because of not starting here until late, but would vote for him after reflecting further.

CC Sabathia is short based on historical standards. However, he pitched in a time of shifting standards and pitch count limitations. Current Pitchers will have less counting stats vs current HOF, but the hall should represent the best players for each generation, and there is certainly an argument CC was, or was very close to reaching that standard.

Rose, Bobby Grich and Shoeless Joe would be three I’d vote for via Veterans committee if they were eligible.

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If you're voting ARod, Clemens and Bonds but dissing McGwire, Palmeiro and Sosa, I don't know what to tell you...

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1 minute ago, knightni said:

If you're voting ARod, Clemens and Bonds but dissing McGwire, Palmeiro and Sosa, I don't know what to tell you...

I am 100% on board with none of that list getting in.

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1 minute ago, knightni said:

If you're voting ARod, Clemens and Bonds but dissing McGwire, Palmeiro and Sosa, I don't know what to tell you...

The difference...the first three were great ball players and probably would have put up Hall numbers without juicing.  Palmeiro was a great hitter, but he made his bed.  McGwire and Sosa were products of PEDs. Without taking them, they get nowhere close to the Hall. McGwire was breaking down by the mid-90s, and Sosa was good but not great with or without steroids.

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15 minutes ago, flavum said:

The difference...the first three were great ball players and probably would have put up Hall numbers without juicing.  Palmeiro was a great hitter, but he made his bed.  McGwire and Sosa were products of PEDs. Without taking them, they get nowhere close to the Hall. McGwire was breaking down by the mid-90s, and Sosa was good but not great with or without steroids.

I kind of take the other view of put them all in (Raffy is an exception - he was always very good - but in my opinion was never the top / elite guy at his respective position). All the other names you mentioned were and they did it in an era where all the results are questionable.

So with that in mind - I get making them sweat it out - but they were some of the most memorable players for a 10+ year era and all were elite in an era that has a lot of question marks - but no one can deny their eliteness in that era so to me - they are HOFers.  

Schilling is super borderline so I get the argument there - won't get into the politics of it because I don't think repub or democrat should matter - but lets all be honest here - his views are not mainstream...so lets not pretend this is a right vs. left thing.  

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3 hours ago, Vulture said:

His 80 career war plus his post season record says he’s a hall of famer. He was being dinged for his behavior even before Trump.

Didn't know that WAR meant everything?  :)

Frank Thomas has a 73.8

Jim Thome has a 72.9

Mike Trout has a 74.6

Never realized that Curt Schilling was a better player than these 3 guys with lower WAR's. 

Curt Schilling 216-146 with a 3.46 ERA

Kevin Brown 211-144 with a 3.28 ERA

Bob Welch 211-146 with a 3.47 ERA.

Milt Pappas 209-164 with a 3.40 ERA

Mark Buehrle 214-160 with a 3.81 ERA

 

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7 minutes ago, jasonxctf said:

Didn't know that WAR meant everything?  :)

Frank Thomas has a 73.8

Jim Thome has a 72.9

Mike Trout has a 74.6

Never realized that Curt Schilling was a better player than these 3 guys with lower WAR's. 

Curt Schilling 216-146 with a 3.46 ERA

Kevin Brown 211-144 with a 3.28 ERA

Bob Welch 211-146 with a 3.47 ERA.

Milt Pappas 209-164 with a 3.40 ERA

Mark Buehrle 214-160 with a 3.81 ERA

 

It doesn't but JAWS, which considers both career and peak (7 year) performance is a quality metric in terms of evaluating HOF players. JAWS is best used comparing players within a position. it's a better indicator than using raw stats like you presented, because it takes into account performance within their era. Pappas and Welch were beneficiaries of playing in a reduced offensive era, and their ballparks helped as well. Wins and Losses are contingent on the quality of his teammates (lineup, defense, bullpen).

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_P.shtml

  1. Schilling 64.1
  2. Brown 56.5
  3. Buehrle 47.4
  4. Welch 36.9
  5. Pappas 36.1

Roger Clemens and 19th century player Jim McCormick are the only two pitchers with a higher JAWS not in the HOF. McCormick should have been inducted long ago, not sure why he was overlooked. We know why Clemens remains out.

Schilling is 28th all time in SP JAWS, 26th in WAR, and 51st in Peak WAR, higher than players considered to have great peaks including Palmer (56) and Koufax (57).

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I was using baseball references similarity scores for those names.

 

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7 hours ago, flavum said:

The difference...the first three were great ball players and probably would have put up Hall numbers without juicing.  Palmeiro was a great hitter, but he made his bed.  McGwire and Sosa were products of PEDs. Without taking them, they get nowhere close to the Hall. McGwire was breaking down by the mid-90s, and Sosa was good but not great with or without steroids.

One I've said before - ARod and Bonds, for example, were athletic freaks before they were drafted. Can you 100% guarantee to me that they never juiced at that point? ARod was on stuff by his 8th big league season. 

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13 hours ago, jasonxctf said:

I was using baseball references similarity scores for those names.

 

I’m not saying he wasn’t a great player prior to steroids (not that we really know when he started), but the common thing always said about Bonds is he was a sure fire HOF prior to steroids.  Using Baseball Reference’s similarity scores by age’:

  1. Tom Brunansky (978.2) 
  2. Jay Bruce (959.2)  
  3. Jason Heyward (944.4)  
  4. Jack Clark (948.2)  
  5. Grady Sizemore (956.1)  
  6. Bobby Bonds (938.2)  
  7. Justin Upton (901.2)  
  8. Shawn Green (915.5)  
  9. Shawn Green (894.2)  
     
  10. None on that list are HOF, but some really good players. Maybe his career ends up closer to Dale Murphy than Willie Mays. For a comparison, put in Mantle or Mays and see their similar players by age. All HOF from the starts of their careers.
  11.  
  12. Starting at age 31, Bonds’ similar players become HOF (Snider, Mantle, FRobinson).

Clemens has a similar thing. He was really starting to fall apart at the end in Boston. Without steroids, who knows where his numbers would have been - maybe winning just a little more than 200 games. When he went to Toronto, all of a sudden he got healthy and put together an unbelievable stretch.

Edited by Middle Buffalo

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11 minutes ago, Middle Buffalo said:

Clemens has a similar thing. He was really starting to fall apart at the end in Boston. Without steroids, who knows where his numbers would have been - maybe winning just a little more than 200 games. When he went to Toronto, all of a sudden he got healthy and put together an unbelievable stretch.

Well, Canada does have free health care.

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