White Sox Zips 2021

[bmags]

Kinda sucks getting these so early, but makes it fun to get each addition

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-zips-projections-chicago-white-sox/

40 total fWAR, man, it has been ...forever? since we started with this high of a baseline.

Encouraging stuff is it sees a bounce back for Moncada plus pretty strong hitting from everyone. Crushes Eloy for defense, crushes anderson for defense.

Poor Vaughn projection, collins is bad.

Probably the biggest suprise is the nice number for Cease. I wouldn't have guessed that. 

But as you can see, we have some real nice areas to improve in RF/SP/Bullpen. 

If you didn't know it, yeah we kinda have a good team here

[Chicago White Sox]

What’s crazy is the amount of regression these are projecting for most guys in the lineup outside of Moncada & Madrigal.  Abreu going from a 7.0 win pace down to 2.0.  Anderson going from a 6.0 to 7.0 win pace down to 2.6.  Eloy going from a 4.5 win pace down to 2.0.  Grandal going from a 4.6 pace down to 3.6 (despite what should be an increase in playing time at catcher).  Also, these have Robert more or less not improving next year.

I don’t expect Jose & Timmy to be as good as they were last year over a full 162 game season, but there is certainly upside to their projections.  I also fully expect Eloy to blow his number out of the water and expect Robert to come in closer to 5 wins if healthy.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Thanks bmags. The Tim Beckham signing somehow escaped me .

[bmags]

6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What’s crazy is the amount of regression these are projecting for most guys in the lineup outside of Moncada & Madrigal.  Abreu going from a 7.0 win pace down to 2.0.  Anderson going from a 6.0 to 7.0 win pace down to 2.6.  Eloy going from a 4.5 win pace down to 2.0.  Grandal going from a 4.6 pace down to 3.6 (despite what should be an increase in playing time at catcher).  Also, these have Robert more or less not improving next year.

I don’t expect Jose & Timmy to be as good as they were last year over a full 162 game season, but there is certainly upside to their projections.  I also fully expect Eloy to blow his number out of the water and expect Robert to come in closer to 5 wins if healthy.

Yeah, honestly the WAR numbers specifically aren't as interesting to me as the projected numbers, since it factors in injuries and the like. Just by being the horse he's been, Anderson should clear 3 WAR easily.

With Abreu, it's still projecting a 120 ops+. At his age, that's good, and I think he'll do better. For Eloy, they are projecting a 137 ops+, so it's not like offensively they see much regression.

For abreu that's a .270/.330/500 slash. Can Abreu beat that? Of course! Is it nice to see the projection still be so high for him at age 33? Hell yeah. The stuff I don't like to see in zips is when it sees big regressions. Offensively, I feel good about everyone's numbers in here save Vaughn who is just gonna be low for age.

[bmags]

3 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Thanks bmags. The Tim Beckham signing somehow escaped me .

lol same. 

[South Side Hit Men]

The upside is if some of a couple of the pitching numbers can be reached this year, like Lopez (1.6) and Rodon (0.9). Some have to be taken with a salt mine of salt ( Geo Gonzalez' 1.8, though it's moot at this point) and also the methodology which rewards Grandal more than other systems for games played and different weighting for defensive metrics.

Baseball Prospectus' numbers come out around Spring Training. I prefer their projections but I like to review bWAR and fWAR in the interim. Thanks for posting.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2020-projections.shtml (Really 2021 projections, not 2020 indicated in link)

OPS (Fan Graphs vs. Baseball Reference) - Bold indicates the OPS I believe is more likely when there is a significant difference. Ordered by my preferred batting order.

1. SS Anderson (.793 vs. 790) R
2. 3B Moncada (.792 vs. .798) S
3. 1B Abreu (.826 vs. .827) R
4. LF Jimenez (.871 vs. .846) R
5. C Grandal (.767 vs. .793) S
6. CF Robert (.794 vs. .769) R
7. DH Vaughn (.685 vs. no projection listed) R
8. RF Angel (.655 vs. .690) R
9. 2B Madrigal (.703 vs. .762) R

ERA & K/9 (Fan Graphs vs. Baseball Reference)

1. Giolito (3.00 / 12.9 vs. 4.11 / 10.3) 
2. Keuchel (3.99 / 7.4 vs. 3.67 / 7.4)
3. Cease (4.48 / 9.1 vs. 4.59 / 8.9) - I think Cease can significantly outperform these projections.
4. Lopez (4.68 / 8.0 vs. 4.85 / 8.5) - Hoping Katz can help
5. Kopech (4.86 / 8.4 vs. 4.35 / 9.5) - Hoping for 130 IP.

 

[southsider2k5]

Rodon won't be back this year.

[bmags]

26 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Rodon won't be back this year.

Nor will Mazara, but it mostly re-reruns the roster of all guys with control (it still has encarnacion on the white sox despite him being unlikely to be there). So when we make an acquisition, if substantial, he'll sometimes write an artilce on it, otherwise you have to go to the players last team to see their 2021 zips.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

Zips doesn't see a difference between Madrigal and Mendick either.  

[ron883]

11 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Zips doesn't see a difference between Madrigal and Mendick either.  

Is Madrigal even better than Mendick?

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What’s crazy is the amount of regression these are projecting for most guys in the lineup outside of Moncada & Madrigal.  Abreu going from a 7.0 win pace down to 2.0.  Anderson going from a 6.0 to 7.0 win pace down to 2.6.  Eloy going from a 4.5 win pace down to 2.0.  Grandal going from a 4.6 pace down to 3.6 (despite what should be an increase in playing time at catcher).  Also, these have Robert more or less not improving next year.

I don’t expect Jose & Timmy to be as good as they were last year over a full 162 game season, but there is certainly upside to their projections.  I also fully expect Eloy to blow his number out of the water and expect Robert to come in closer to 5 wins if healthy.

Anderson will be under projected for his entire career; his game is too unique and unique players skills aren't captured by uniformed projection systems.

[Jerksticks]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Anderson will be under projected for his entire career; his game is too unique and unique players skills aren't captured by uniformed projection systems.

Correct.  I think it’s just guys with advanced bat-to-ball.  There aren’t many of them and it goes against the popular theory that high BABIPs MUST regress to certain norms.  

[Orlando]

1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Zips doesn't see a difference between Madrigal and Mendick either.  

Unless I’m reading it wrong it has Madrigal as two wins better than Mendick

[bmags]

10 minutes ago, Orlando said:

Unless I’m reading it wrong it has Madrigal as two wins better than Mendick

Madrigal 1.7 wins, Mendick 1.6

[Orlando]

14 minutes ago, bmags said:

Madrigal 1.7 wins, Mendick 1.6

Dang idk what I was reading then! Thanks

[South Side Hit Men]

12 minutes ago, Orlando said:

Unless I’m reading it wrong it has Madrigal as two wins better than Mendick

They are about the same based on near exact same playing time and performance last year.

Baseball Reference has a higher OBP projected for Madrigal by 42 points.

fWAR - Fan Graphs 
2020: Mendick 0.3 (114 PA) vs. Madrigal 0.1 (109 PA)

2021: Madrigal 1.7 (500) vs. Mendick 1.6 (532 PA)

bWAR - Baseball Reference (2021 bWAR not available, used OPS)

2020: Mendick 0.6 (114 PA) vs. Madrigal 0.4 (109 PA)

2021 Mendick .720 (261 PA) vs. Madrigal .762 (255 PA)

Baseball Prospectus WARP (2021 based on 2019 projections 2021 on legacy card (2021 from 2020 not available)

2020: Mendick 0.4 (114 PA) vs. Madrigal 0.4 (109 PA).

2021: Mendick -0.2 (453 PA) vs. Madrigal -0.4 (425 PA).

 

[bmags]

The player with the most brutal projection in this is actually McCann.

[SonofaRoache]

Thank goodness the games are played on the field. I enjoy this information but I think our lineup, rotation, and coaching next year will make us a top 5 team. Depth and how big of an upgrade we make in RF and SP2/3 will determine if we can win it all.