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Dodgers sign Bauer (3/102, opt-outs, 40-45-17)

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1 hour ago, poppysox said:

I don't love the idea of bringing in people from outside the organization for considerably more than the current players get. Make an exception for generational talent but this year's crop of talent is not that.   Jose making 10 million less than Springer doesn't seem right. That said...it is the current system.   If Bauer can be had in the 20-25 million neighborhood I would like him.  If not...Colome and Hendriks along with Joc would complete my off-season.  Katz working with our stable of young guns with a lockdown pen should be very effective.  Joc/Engel and Vaughn make the lineup look very dangerous.

You would not add a single starting pitcher then?

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4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You would not add a single starting pitcher then?

Giolito, Keuchel, Cease, Dunning, Lopez, Lambert, Kopech, and Crochet are a good nucleus for Katz to work with.  A Quintana type might be nice but not essential if the pen is the type pen KC used a few years back.  All of this mix and match starter talk is so that we don't spend it all on one guy.  Quality pens can piece together very solid staff performances.  Also, we do need to see what we have in this group of high-end prospects.  I do want to see what Katz can do with the young guys.  

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21 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Giolito, Keuchel, Cease, Dunning, Lopez, Lambert, Kopech, and Crochet are a good nucleus for Katz to work with.  A Quintana type might be nice but not essential if the pen is the type pen KC used a few years back.  All of this mix and match starter talk is so that we don't spend it all on one guy.  Quality pens can piece together very solid staff performances.  Also, we do need to see what we have in this group of high-end prospects.  I do want to see what Katz can do with the young guys.  

He can work on them while they intern in the bullpen

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Just now, ChiSox1917 said:

He can work on them while they intern in the bullpen

Works for me.

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22 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Giolito, Keuchel, Cease, Dunning, Lopez, Lambert, Kopech, and Crochet are a good nucleus for Katz to work with.  A Quintana type might be nice but not essential if the pen is the type pen KC used a few years back.  All of this mix and match starter talk is so that we don't spend it all on one guy.  Quality pens can piece together very solid staff performances.  Also, we do need to see what we have in this group of high-end prospects.  I do want to see what Katz can do with the young guys.  

We need to add at least one legit starter to the rotation.  Giolito, Keuchel, & Dunning should be locks for spots.  Regarding the other five guys, Katz made it sound like Lopez will be moving to the bullpen which makes sense since he’s out of options and it’s now or never time for him.  I also think Lambert’s days of starting are over based on their decision to use him the major league bullpen last year rather than rehab him in Schaumburg like Dunning.  Crochet is going to be on a strict innings limit next year and would likely come out of the bullpen when he’s finally part of the major league mix.  Kopech hasn’t pitched in a professional game in several years and will be on an innings limit and IMO would be better off starting off the season in Charlotte.  That leaves Cease who should be able to absorb a lot of innings, but is coming off a horrible 2020 season.  If we don’t add at least one legit starter, I don’t think we’re serious about competing next year.

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54 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You would not add a single starting pitcher then?

The Sox have to get someone near the TOR. Bauer is probably going to be a tough one with the Mets out there wanting to spend gobs of money. I have a hard time imagining Jerry outbidding them. But I hope we somehow do land him. That would make the Sox among the World Series favorites for sure.

Otherwise, give Jed a call and see if they are interested in moving Hendricks or Darvish. I know the rumor is they are aren't doing a full rebuild, but you never know.

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1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

We need to add at least one legit starter to the rotation.  Giolito, Keuchel, & Dunning should be locks for spots.  Regarding the other five guys, Katz made it sound like Lopez will be moving to the bullpen which makes sense since he’s out of options and it’s now or never time for him.  I also think Lambert’s days of starting are over based on their decision to use him the major league bullpen last year rather than rehab him in Schaumburg like Dunning.  Crochet is going to be on a strict innings limit next year and would likely come out of the bullpen when he’s finally part of the major league mix.  Kopech hasn’t pitched in a professional game in several years and will be on an innings limit and IMO would be better off starting off the season in Charlotte.  That leaves Cease who should be able to absorb a lot of innings, but is coming off a horrible 2020 season.  If we don’t add at least one legit starter, I don’t think we’re serious about competing next year.

I agree. Expecting Katz to make these guys reliable immediately wouldn’t be fair. Last they played, the team had 2 starters they deemed reliable. You have to expect Keuchel to regress a bit as well.

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4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

We need to add at least one legit starter to the rotation.  Giolito, Keuchel, & Dunning should be locks for spots.  Regarding the other five guys, Katz made it sound like Lopez will be moving to the bullpen which makes sense since he’s out of options and it’s now or never time for him.  I also think Lambert’s days of starting are over based on their decision to use him the major league bullpen last year rather than rehab him in Schaumburg like Dunning.  Crochet is going to be on a strict innings limit next year and would likely come out of the bullpen when he’s finally part of the major league mix.  Kopech hasn’t pitched in a professional game in several years and will be on an innings limit and IMO would be better off starting off the season in Charlotte.  That leaves Cease who should be able to absorb a lot of innings, but is coming off a horrible 2020 season.  If we don’t add at least one legit starter, I don’t think we’re serious about competing next year.

I agree with most of this. Though I wouldn't call Cease's 2020 horrible. Just a bit disappointing. I'm very happy we have a new pitching coach to work with him. The tools are there.

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5 minutes ago, Sarava said:

The Sox have to get someone near the TOR. Bauer is probably going to be a tough one with the Mets out there wanting to spend gobs of money. I have a hard time imagining Jerry outbidding them. But I hope we somehow do land him. That would make the Sox among the World Series favorites for sure.

Otherwise, give Jed a call and see if they are interested in moving Hendricks or Darvish. I know the rumor is they are aren't doing a full rebuild, but you never know.

I agree.  And if the prices via trade are too much at the moment, then go sign two of Paxton, Kluber, & Richards and hope that one of them gives you at least #3 production next year.  If not, you look to acquire a TOR starter at the deadline since we’d still have all our chips.  Either way, we can’t rely on the young guys to step up into that #3 spot in 2021.

Edited by Chicago White Sox
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9 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

I agree. Expecting Katz to make these guys reliable immediately wouldn’t be fair. Last they played, the team had 2 starters they deemed reliable. You have to expect Keuchel to regress a bit as well.

Yup.  I fully expected Keuchel to regress some, which is why a #2 starter would be ideal.  I could live with Dunning & Cease opening the season as our #4 & #5 starters if we added a Bauer type at the top, but in all honesty we need guys pushing each other for spots at back.  I still think a Lynn or Darvish type plus signing a guy like Richards make a ton of sense.  Let Cease battle Dunning & Richards for those last two spots and if he loses out he can spend a couple months in Charlotte working on whatever changes Katz has in place for him.

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14 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

We need to add at least one legit starter to the rotation.  Giolito, Keuchel, & Dunning should be locks for spots.  Regarding the other five guys, Katz made it sound like Lopez will be moving to the bullpen which makes sense since he’s out of options and it’s now or never time for him.  I also think Lambert’s days of starting are over based on their decision to use him the major league bullpen last year rather than rehab him in Schaumburg like Dunning.  Crochet is going to be on a strict innings limit next year and would likely come out of the bullpen when he’s finally part of the major league mix.  Kopech hasn’t pitched in a professional game in several years and will be on an innings limit and IMO would be better off starting off the season in Charlotte.  That leaves Cease who should be able to absorb a lot of innings, but is coming off a horrible 2020 season.  If we don’t add at least one legit starter, I don’t think we’re serious about competing next year.

I have high hopes for Cease and Kopech to find themselves.  All the talent in the world and a young coach that seems to know how to relate.  Throwing strikes has always been the problem with our young guys.  Our offense should allow pitchers to throw without worry about giving up a run or two.  It kind of frees up the brain if you will.  

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29 minutes ago, Sarava said:

I agree with most of this. Though I wouldn't call Cease's 2020 horrible. Just a bit disappointing. I'm very happy we have a new pitching coach to work with him. The tools are there.

His 4.01 ERA masked a 5.87 FIP.  Don’t get me wrong, I’m still extremely high on Cease, but he’s got a lot of work in front of him as he didn’t make much progress last year.  Fastball command was terrible, his fastball lacks movement despite a high spin rate, and his secondaries are still way too inconsistent.  Additionally, his curveball (his bread & butter breaking ball coming up in the minors) has regressed over the past two years and his usage of it dropped by half in 2020.  The good news is he has elite velocity for a starter and hopefully by partnering with Katz he can come up with some mechanical / grip changes he can turn that pitch into a weapon again.  And I’m optimistic with Cooper gone that we’ll see an increase in curveball utilization even if that’s a bit of a meme at this point.

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25 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

Did Katz straight up say that Lopez is going to be a reliever from now on?

I was only causally listening to the interview, but it certainly seemed like he was implying he’d be a reliever going forward.

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Poor Katz, he’s expected to be a savior now. I’m excited for him, but if he lives up to the expectations on here, he would be the greatest hire in history.  If he gets 1 of these guys fixed, it will be an improvement over Cooper.

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5 hours ago, poppysox said:

I don't love the idea of bringing in people from outside the organization for considerably more than the current players get. Make an exception for generational talent but this year's crop of talent is not that.   Jose making 10 million less than Springer doesn't seem right. That said...it is the current system.   If Bauer can be had in the 20-25 million neighborhood I would like him.  If not...Colome and Hendriks along with Joc would complete my off-season.  Katz working with our stable of young guns with a lockdown pen should be very effective.  Joc/Engel and Vaughn make the lineup look very dangerous.

Lol

So never sign good free agents....got it.

Edited by manbearpuig

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For anyone interested in looking at pitchers stats including the type of pitches they throw , how often they use them and how they are hit and comparing all that to previous years you really can't beat Brooksbaseball.net

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37 minutes ago, fathom said:

Poor Katz, he’s expected to be a savior now. I’m excited for him, but if he lives up to the expectations on here, he would be the greatest hire in history.  If he gets 1 of these guys fixed, it will be an improvement over Cooper.

He's already fixed Giolito, and Kopech doesn't need to be fixed, he just needs to be healthy. Lopez is a lottery ticket at this point, and the only guy who really needs to be "fixed" is Cease. Or, he could be another guy like Lopez whose stuff plays down in the majors. 

If they get anything out of Lopez at this point that's a win.

Edited by Jack Parkman

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1 hour ago, fathom said:

Poor Katz, he’s expected to be a savior now. I’m excited for him, but if he lives up to the expectations on here, he would be the greatest hire in history.  If he gets 1 of these guys fixed, it will be an improvement over Cooper.

It's too bad Coop couldn't pull another Matt Thornton out of his hat with regards to Cease.  I guess one fix doesn't fix all when it comes to command.  

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2 hours ago, fathom said:

Poor Katz, he’s expected to be a savior now. I’m excited for him, but if he lives up to the expectations on here, he would be the greatest hire in history.  If he gets 1 of these guys fixed, it will be an improvement over Cooper.

Anything short of the starters finishing 1-5 in Cy Young voting will be a collosal disappointment.  

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5 hours ago, poppysox said:

Giolito, Keuchel, Cease, Dunning, Lopez, Lambert, Kopech, and Crochet are a good nucleus for Katz to work with.  A Quintana type might be nice but not essential if the pen is the type pen KC used a few years back.  All of this mix and match starter talk is so that we don't spend it all on one guy.  Quality pens can piece together very solid staff performances.  Also, we do need to see what we have in this group of high-end prospects.  I do want to see what Katz can do with the young guys.  

This is really shortsighted. That nucleus is what we already had and it was messy. Another year will likely work out some kinks but then they might not, and a possiblity someone (especially Dallas) could regress means you need AT LEAST one more quality starter, but at least one TOR starter specifically to move the needle. Adding guys like Paxton and Quintana alone will not do that. (I'm really hoping we can get Lynn regardless of who we do or don't sign)

If we want to go all the way, we need to aim higher than being the Twins. We need to be able to win playoff games.

Edited by RagahRagah

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7 hours ago, Flash said:

Would be very surprised if anyone goes 6 years and more surprised at $30/AAV. I think Bauer AAV will come in @$25M. Still a boatload.

At 6/150 the White Sox should actively be sending the contract right now.

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16 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

No dude.....he hasn't earned that type of pay check. He's had one full season of under a 4.00 ERA, and had a 4.42 as recently as 2019. 

This is insanity. I'd be willing to go over 25M on a 5 or 6 year deal but once you start to approach 30M it's too much and too far. Like 27-28M is my limit. Past that point, It's time to say no mas. 

Even if the Sox signed Bauer to 5/140 or something like that, if he's not close to the guy from 2018 or 2020 then it's a massive budget killer and would derail the window. 

I'm all for signing Bauer at a rate of the Wheeler offer or a little more. Some of the proposed contracts in this thread are batshit crazy. 

 

If they can get him for what you're proposing, even better. Sometimes over analysis leads to paralysis. What is 5.3 WAR/162 over the last 3 seasons worth on the open market?

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Lots of talk about Blake Snell and Trevor Bauer and the greatness that they will be if we trade or sign them. It does seem like 4 of the last 5 WS winners got a star pitcher to push them over the top. The problem is...is it not possible that we are equating the top guys currently available to the players in deals that Houston made for Greinke/Verlander or the deal that Washington made for Scherzer, or Jon Lester with the Cubs or Chris Sale/David Price with the Red Sox. Each one of those guys had a WAY better five year track record than S or B.  We have to be careful with our assets and in this case our assets are a "$200 million contract" and the three prospects people want to throw into a trade...is now the time? Are either of these guys the answer?  I know it's an unpopular opinion but...why not keep our powder dry until the All Star break?  Sign Quintana to get you to the ASB while seeing if Cease, Lopez, Kopech and Dunning with a new pitching coach could take a big step this year.  The window is open but that doesn't mean we have to go all in this second.  

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5 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

His 4.01 ERA masked a 5.87 FIP.  Don’t get me wrong, I’m still extremely high on Cease, but he’s got a lot of work in front of him as he didn’t make much progress last year.  Fastball command was terrible, his fastball lacks movement despite a high spin rate, and his secondaries are still way too inconsistent.  Additionally, his curveball (his bread & butter breaking ball coming up in the minors) has regressed over the past two years and his usage of it dropped by half in 2020.  The good news is he has elite velocity for a starter and hopefully by partnering with Katz he can come up with some mechanical / grip changes he can turn that pitch into a weapon again.  And I’m optimistic with Cooper gone that we’ll see an increase in curveball utilization even if that’s a bit of a meme at this point.

This. I'll have to follow more of your posts. I like posts like this that reference FIP and spin rates and usage. 

my hope is he can have that Giolito "aha!" moment and turn into a #2 type starter, otherwise I think we're likley to see him flounder like a Reynaldo Lopez in #5 category/bullpen/ultimately let go and picked up by a bad team type player. Aka Carlos Rodon. 

Ultimately we will need that #3 guy soon, who can step into Keuchel's #2 spot in the next year or two while Keuchel maybe takes a step back. Right now I feel like Kopech has the best chance followed by Cease. 

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