Dam8610 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said: I was actually just basing it off of the 5-1 odds you gave with the die analogy. It's 1 in 6, which I suppose is 5 to 1? But quibbling over 16.7% vs. 20% seems silly. Either way, it's pretty clear that's toward the top end of outcomes for him this year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxBlanco Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 11 minutes ago, Dam8610 said: It's 1 in 6, which I suppose is 5 to 1? But quibbling over 16.7% vs. 20% seems silly. Either way, it's pretty clear that's toward the top end of outcomes for him this year. Yeah, the probably is 1/6 but the odds are 1:5 (sorry, that’s my math nerd side coming out). But yeah, not worth quibbling about. He did just put up a 6.8 WAR in his last full season. I guess the only place that I disagree with you is that I don’t think Bauer is that much more likely to have a 5+ WAR season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dam8610 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said: Yeah, the probably is 1/6 but the odds are 1:5 (sorry, that’s my math nerd side coming out). But yeah, not worth quibbling about. He did just put up a 6.8 WAR in his last full season. I guess the only place that I disagree with you is that I don’t think Bauer is that much more likely to have a 5+ WAR season. Once again, this has to do with age and recent performance. Bauer had a near 6 WAR season in 2018, 3.5 in 2019, and extrapolating 2020 to a full season, would've had 6.8 WAR. He's also going into his age 30 season. That suggests he'll be close to career best performance for at least the next 3 seasons. It's not a sure thing with Bauer, but I'd give him a much higher chance at it based on age and recent performance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 hour ago, SoxBlanco said: Agreed. That’s why I said I see your point. Lynn isn’t quite at the age where I’m worried about his age, but I can certainly understand it if you are concerned. I’d be happy to take a bet where I’d lose $100 if Lynn’s WAR is under 5 and I’d win $500 if his WAR is over 5. Better make sure you know how long the season is before you make that bet 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxBlanco Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 46 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said: Better make sure you know how long the season is before you make that bet That’s an excellent point! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 3 hours ago, southsider2k5 said: His videos are such a waste of time. He blathers on forever and never really has anything to say. I disagree. He usually tells fanbases how they need to pay him more attention in social media and "step their game up" with the amount of attention and begging for him to come to their teams. He even complained about one of the fanbases that they went almost a whole day without courting him. I'm shocked at how many people still don't realize Bauer is a giant douchebag. My favorite is when he plays victim talking about being bullied as a kid, and so now he bullies others to inspire kids that get bullied that they too can one day have a big enough platform to become the bully and not the bullied. He sucks. 3 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross Gload Fan Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 minute ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said: I disagree. He usually tells fanbases how they need to pay him more attention in social media and "step their game up" with the amount of attention and begging for him to come to their teams. He even complained about one of the fanbases that they went almost a whole day without courting him. I'm shocked at how many people still don't realize Bauer is a giant douchebag. My favorite is when he plays victim talking about being bullied as a kid, and so now he bullies others to inspire kids that get bullied that they too can one day have a big enough platform to become the bully and not the bullied. He sucks. Thank god somebody else sees this and feels this way. I would welcome him to the team, because talent is awesome, but the dude is a grade A creepy douchebag. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Briro2021 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ross Gload Fan said: Thank god somebody else sees this and feels this way. I would welcome him to the team, because talent is awesome, but the dude is a grade A creepy douchebag. His show on you tube is pretty annoying but i would take him on the Sox any day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Side Hit Men Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 2 hours ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said: I disagree. He usually tells fanbases how they need to pay him more attention in social media and "step their game up" with the amount of attention and begging for him to come to their teams. He even complained about one of the fanbases that they went almost a whole day without courting him. I'm shocked at how many people still don't realize Bauer is a giant douchebag. My favorite is when he plays victim talking about being bullied as a kid, and so now he bullies others to inspire kids that get bullied that they too can one day have a big enough platform to become the bully and not the bullied. He sucks. Thanks, agreed. Unless there is a fundamental change in how Reinsdorf operates a team, or announces a $40m-$60m increase in payroll on a go forward basis, not sure why anyone thinks he is signing with the White Sox. I tried watching one of his videos posted here, and turned it off a few minutes in, with about a half hour remaining. Haven't watched enough to judge whether he is a dbag based on his videos, but one only needs to watch his actions/antics on the field or in the clubhouse to reach that conclusion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RagahRagah Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 5 hours ago, Dam8610 said: That logic dictates they should go out and sign Nolan Ryan or Felix Hernandez. Um... no, it doesn't. Nolan Ryan isn't currently 34 and pitching at a high level. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dam8610 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 54 minutes ago, RagahRagah said: Um... no, it doesn't. Nolan Ryan isn't currently 34 and pitching at a high level. Wow, the point I made so obvious and even stated in a later post still flew right over your head. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Bauer is a such a dick. Obviously I want him from a baseball standpoint because he’s a great pitcher but he wouldn’t be easy to root for. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotHahn Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 30 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said: Bauer is a such a dick. Obviously I want him from a baseball standpoint because he’s a great pitcher but he wouldn’t be easy to root for. Does it matter if a player is easy to root for? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vulture Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 5 hours ago, Dam8610 said: Once again, this has to do with age and recent performance. Bauer had a near 6 WAR season in 2018, 3.5 in 2019, and extrapolating 2020 to a full season, would've had 6.8 WAR. He's also going into his age 30 season. That suggests he'll be close to career best performance for at least the next 3 seasons. It's not a sure thing with Bauer, but I'd give him a much higher chance at it based on age and recent performance. You can’t extrapolate 2020 to a full season though. No way he would have kept up that pace over 32 starts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 9 minutes ago, NotHahn said: Does it matter if a player is easy to root for? I guess not but I really enjoy rooting for this current Sox team because TA7, Abreu, Giolito, etc are class acts and appear to be good people off of the field as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarava Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 4 hours ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said: I disagree. He usually tells fanbases how they need to pay him more attention in social media and "step their game up" with the amount of attention and begging for him to come to their teams. He even complained about one of the fanbases that they went almost a whole day without courting him. I'm shocked at how many people still don't realize Bauer is a giant douchebag. My favorite is when he plays victim talking about being bullied as a kid, and so now he bullies others to inspire kids that get bullied that they too can one day have a big enough platform to become the bully and not the bullied. He sucks. Eh, I just take it as he just enjoys trolling on the internet. To me it's mostly fun and harmless, but to each his own. And I'll save name-calling like being a 'giant douche' for the wife beating types of the sports world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotHahn Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 10 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said: I guess not but I really enjoy rooting for this current Sox team because TA7, Abreu, Giolito, etc are class acts and appear to be good people off of the field as well. You never know who is going to be a good person off the field. All It takes is 1 mistake to change perceptions. Give me talent and performance over likeability any day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerksticks Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Man from what I can tell, Bauer seems like one of the few guys who really gets it- it’s a fans game. I watched his video talking about when TA finally got him and the one about the top 5 fan bases courting him right now. That was all good stuff 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RagahRagah Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Dam8610 said: Wow, the point I made so obvious and even stated in a later post still flew right over your head. The point didn't go over my head, it was invalid. Logic only dictates what you suggested to someone who doesn't understand logic. Lynn is 34, not in his 40's and he is pitching at a high level and has always been dependable. That is the only point that really matters on the context of the conversation. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dam8610 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, RagahRagah said: The point didn't go over my head, it was invalid. Logic only dictates what you suggested to someone who doesn't understand logic. Lynn is 34, not in his 40's and he is pitching at a high level and has always been dependable. That is the only point that really matters on the context of the conversation. He's old for a MLB player and definitely on the downward trending end of the aging spectrum. He's the type of player you expect to consistently lose value over the next several seasons. This is the biggest reason it was a bad trade. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dam8610 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 47 minutes ago, Vulture said: You can’t extrapolate 2020 to a full season though. No way he would have kept up that pace over 32 starts We'll never know either way. The only thing we can do at this point is extrapolate to a full season. It's possible he could've gotten worse, and also possible he could've gotten better. Based on the fact that he had 2.5 WAR in 60 games and he had 5.8 WAR in 2018, I think it's fairly safe to say a full 2020 for Bauer would've been well over 5 WAR, giving him 2 5+ WAR seasons in the past 3 going into his age 30 season. Considering that the expectation at that point would be to just maintain performance level, which is a reasonable expectation for an age 30 season, it seems reasonable to see Bauer as much more likely to be a 5+ WAR pitcher in 2021 than Lynn, considering Lynn is 34 and has only had 1 season above 5 WAR, and even extrapolating out his 2020 would've only had 4 WAR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vulture Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Dam8610 said: We'll never know either way. The only thing we can do at this point is extrapolate to a full season. It's possible he could've gotten worse, and also possible he could've gotten better. Based on the fact that he had 2.5 WAR in 60 games and he had 5.8 WAR in 2018, I think it's fairly safe to say a full 2020 for Bauer would've been well over 5 WAR, giving him 2 5+ WAR seasons in the past 3 going into his age 30 season. Considering that the expectation at that point would be to just maintain performance level, which is a reasonable expectation for an age 30 season, it seems reasonable to see Bauer as much more likely to be a 5+ WAR pitcher in 2021 than Lynn, considering Lynn is 34 and has only had 1 season above 5 WAR, and even extrapolating out his 2020 would've only had 4 WAR. The other thing we can do is look at his last 32 actual starts rather than 11 actual starts and 21 hypothetical starts. Based on the previous 21 starts its not in fact safe to say it would have been over 5 WAR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poppysox Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 9 hours ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said: I guess not but I really enjoy rooting for this current Sox team because TA7, Abreu, Giolito, etc are class acts and appear to be good people off of the field as well. You can add Eloy, Yoan, and Madrigal to your list of likable players. This is the most "likeable" team in Sox history for my money. The fact that they are good players really adds to the enjoyment of watching WS baseball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScootsMcGoots Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 11 hours ago, NotHahn said: You never know who is going to be a good person off the field. All It takes is 1 mistake to change perceptions. Give me talent and performance over likeability any day. Not me. If you're a dick, I don't care who you are, get off my team. Puig was a stud talent-wise for the Dodgers for a few years there. If I were a Dodgers fan, I would have LOATHED him. And that stupid tongue thing he always did was so annoying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 16 hours ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said: I disagree. He usually tells fanbases how they need to pay him more attention in social media and "step their game up" with the amount of attention and begging for him to come to their teams. He even complained about one of the fanbases that they went almost a whole day without courting him. I'm shocked at how many people still don't realize Bauer is a giant douchebag. My favorite is when he plays victim talking about being bullied as a kid, and so now he bullies others to inspire kids that get bullied that they too can one day have a big enough platform to become the bully and not the bullied. He sucks. I am glad I am not the only one here. I get the attraction to him as a pitcher for sure, but his video series is such a waste of time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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