Joc Pederson: How long will he be a future White Sox?

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, bmags said:

Adam Engel Sept/Oct wRC+ was 135

Oh wow, amazing. Sox don't even need a rightfielder at all. No idea why they're looking for one. He hit 291 vs righties to. Problems solved. 

What was jocs wRc+ in sept/oct last year

[SoxBlanco]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Engel reverted back to his same bad habits last year as the season went on. The more he'll play the more he'll get exposed. He's just not a good hitter. Too many bad habits.

I used a three year sample. Its not a close comparison. Portraying it as such is statistically dishonest.

Alright, why don’t you tell me what you expect from Springer next year. Then tell me what you expect from a Joc/Engel platoon. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Alright, why don’t you tell me what you expect from Springer next year. Then tell me what you expect from a Joc/Engel platoon. 

I expect springer to be a 5 war player and I expect engel and Joc to be the inconsistent and unreliable hitters they've been there entire careers.

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Oh wow, amazing. Sox don't even need a rightfielder at all. No idea why they're looking for one. He hit 291 vs righties to. Problems solved. 

What was jocs wRc+ in sept/oct last year

You said he wore down as the season wore on. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

You said he wore down as the season wore on. 

No, I said he reverted to bad habits. 

Flat swing, dropping shoulder, being inconsistent with his load.

Edited December 6, 2020 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[SoxBlanco]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I expect springer to be a 5 war player and I expect engel and Joc to be the inconsistent and unreliable hitters they've been there entire careers.

Can you be more specific for Joc and Engel?

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, SoxBlanco said:

Can you be more specific for Joc and Engel?

I'll take their combine OPS being under 900 - which you cited- for however much you'd like. I'll even give you the free 7 points.

[bmags]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

No, I said he reverted to bad habits. 

Got it. He reverted to bad habits but it didn’t affect his production at all. 

[SonofaRoache]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'll take their combine OPS being under 900 - which you cited- for however much you'd like. I'll even give you the free 7 points.

Yeah I agree with this. Having Joc platoon with Engel would be better than what we had, but Joc has been on the market for a reason the last few years. IF he is inconsistent here than we are back to being bad at the position offensively. I'd be okay with this gamble if we sign Bauer. But we better have a plan to acquire a solid RF if it doesn't work. 

[SoxBlanco]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'll take their combine OPS being under 900 - which you cited- for however much you'd like. I'll even give you the free 7 points.

Why do you keep avoiding the question? I don’t want an over/under prediction based on my comparison. I want you to tell me what you honestly think their numbers will be. Feel free to use WAR or OPS. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

Got it. He reverted to bad habits but it didn’t affect his production at all. 

Uh yes, it was literally 31 PA and you're acting as if it tells a story. Amazing.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, SoxBlanco said:

Why do you keep avoiding the question? I don’t want an over/under prediction based on my comparison. I want you to tell me what you honestly think their numbers will be. Feel free to use WAR or OPS. 

I think they'll be half as good as springer as they've been for the past three years. Does that meet your demands?

[bmags]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Uh yes, it was literally 31 PA and you're acting as if it tells a story. Amazing.

If it was 31 PAs and you can’t draw conclusions it’s weird you had takeaways from it.

[SoxBlanco]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I think they'll be half as good as springer as they've been for the past three years. Does that meet your demands?

Ok, so 5 WAR for Springer and 2.5 WAR for an Engel/Joc platoon?

And they aren’t demands. They were simple requests based on our discussion. 

[ron883]

Just now, SoxBlanco said:

Ok, so 5 WAR for Springer and 2.5 WAR for an Engel/Joc platoon?

And they aren’t demands. They were simple requests based on our discussion. 

And a .450 OPS combined from the two. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

If it was 31 PAs and you can’t draw conclusions it’s weird you had takeaways from it.

Yes, I analyzed his swing early in the season and did a write up on it. I did it again at the end of the season. What I didn't do was look at production stats for 31 pa's.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

3 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Ok, so 5 WAR for Springer and 2.5 WAR for an Engel/Joc platoon?

And they aren’t demands. They were simple requests based on our discussion. 

And even this doesn't capture the real risk which is that Joc and engel could literally be worth 1 fWAR over the course of the season. Theres zero chance, barring injury, that springer could be bad as Joc and engel could be.

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yes, I analyzed his swing early in the season and did a write up on it. I did it again at the end of the season. What I didn't do was look at production stats for 31 pa's.

OK write up the analysis then. 

[SoxBlanco]

8 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

And even this doesn't capture the real risk which is that Joc and engel could literally be worth 1 fWAR over the course of the season. Theres zero chance, barring injury, that springer could be bad as Joc and engel could be.

When you say "Theres zero chance, barring injury, that springer could be bad as Joc and engel could be", do you just mean that the floor is definitely lower for Joc/Engel?  Or are you saying there's zero chance that a Joc/Engel platoon could put up a better season than Springer?

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

When you say "Theres zero chance, barring injury, that springer could be bad as Joc and engel could be", do you just mean that the floor is definitely lower for Joc/Engel?  Or are you saying there's zero chance that a Joc/Engel platoon could put up a better season than Springer?

The first one.

[SoxBlanco]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The first one.

I agree with you there, for sure. Look, I want Springer as much as anybody. I just don't think Joc/Engel is as bad of an option as you are making it seem. I think it's very possible they put up something in the 3 WAR range. And if that gives us flexibility to add a pitcher at the deadline or next offseason, then it's not the worst option out there.

Yes, we should just be going after Bauer. I want them to stop avoiding the big contracts just like you. It sucks. 

[southsider2k5]

27 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Uh yes, it was literally 31 PA and you're acting as if it tells a story. Amazing.

That is kind of the point here. A Joc/Engel platoon would see Adam get a small fraction of the ABs, so you want to see him be productive in a small number of ABs.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

That is kind of the point here. A Joc/Engel platoon would see Adam get a small fraction of the ABs, so you want to see him be productive in a small number of ABs.

Haha I guess this is one way of looking at sss positively. Its so volatile he could be good! 

[SoxBlanco]

Quick question on WAR:

How much does playing RF vs CF affect a player's WAR?  If a guy puts up a 5 WAR season playing CF all year, what would his WAR be (approximately) playing RF with the same offensive numbers?

[Y2Jimmy0]

Well this thread has been detailed. My goodness