Old: Mega Hendriks Speculation Thread

[Y2Jimmy0]

1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

So you have him for his age 34 and 35 seasons, the 2 seasons you would be looking forward to the least with Hendriks. If you are worried about Hendricks at that age, you should probably be worried about Yates as well.

It's not the same thing at all. The Sox core is more expensive two years from now. That's the argument. 

[Dick Allen]

1 minute ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

It's not the same thing at all. The Sox core is more expensive two years from now. That's the argument. 

And what if Yates busts? Then you have to sign a guy for 3 years which would be  5 from today. Sign the best player for once.  They can easily afford it.

[fathom]

5 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

So you have him for his age 34 and 35 seasons, the 2 seasons you would be looking forward to the least with Hendriks. If you are worried about Hendricks at that age, you should probably be worried about Yates as well.

And the contract is not really an albatross if Hendriks doesn't work out or the Sox are not going to be what they claim they will be. Every team that wins all the time has a contract or two they could live without. If $13 million is a big problem, the rebuild will never end. It's what they paid Alonso and Jay combined.

A wasted 13 million is a big problem though with this owner. We can say as much as we want about how the rebuild was never going to work if they’re this cheap....but unfortunately they are.  

[bmags]

1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

And what if Yates busts? Then you have to sign a guy for 3 years which would be  5 from today. Sign the best player for once.  They can easily afford it.

Why would you have to sign a guy for 3 years

[bmags]

14 minutes ago, fathom said:

It’s a significant amount of money for a 35 year old closer 4 years from now when a lot of the core players will be getting way more expensive.  Just doesn’t seem like the best allocation of resources.  Give me Yates and LaStella for the same cost of Hendriks this year.

If the sox are winning and Hendriks is still a significant  improvement over most relievers this won't matter.

But also they could trade his salary.

[Dick Allen]

Just now, bmags said:

Why would you have to sign a guy for 3 years

Because, unless you are going to tier 3, you probably will have to give an established closer 3 years in free agency.

According to this article the Sox local TV revenue is pretty, pretty, pretty good.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-update-the-estimated-local-tv-revenue-for-mlb-teams/

[maloney.adam]

Giving a reliever a 4 year contract is pretty risky and more so if he busts. 

[Dick Allen]

3 minutes ago, fathom said:

A wasted 13 million is a big problem though with this owner. We can say as much as we want about how the rebuild was never going to work if they’re this cheap....but unfortunately they are.  

This is part of the problem. Instead of signing guys like Jay and trading for guys like Alonzo, they should have banked that money and saved it for something like this. They have done it for years. They blew money on Soria, who was pretty good for them, but why pay him what they had to pay him when they aren't going to win? They flipped him for garbage. They should have saved the money and maybe developed a closer from what they had on hand. There was better chance they would have developed one in house on the cheap as there was for them to flip Soria for Glyebbar Torres.

[Y2Jimmy0]

3 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

This is part of the problem. Instead of signing guys like Jay and trading for guys like Alonzo, they should have banked that money and saved it for something like this. They have done it for years. They blew money on Soria, who was pretty good for them, but why pay him what they had to pay him when they aren't going to win? They flipped him for garbage. They should have saved the money and maybe developed a closer from what they had on hand. There was better chance they would have developed one in house on the cheap as there was for them to flip Soria for Glyebbar Torres.

This I agree with. I hate the way the club approached the 2018 and 2019 seasons. It didn't make any sense. 

[bmags]

10 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Because, unless you are going to tier 3, you probably will have to give an established closer 3 years in free agency.

According to this article the Sox local TV revenue is pretty, pretty, pretty good.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-update-the-estimated-local-tv-revenue-for-mlb-teams/

I actualy want everyone to read these because I think it cuts across all of it. I'm in favor of signing Hendriks. I also think signing yates + lastella is great.

Of the top 10 in saves last year:

Hudson signed for a 2 year deal
Rosenthal signed a 1 year deal
Mark Melancon was traded 2 years into his 4-yr 64 million dollar deal after a disappointing start. The braves took all of it and sent decent prospects back (Tristan beck)
Kintzler non roster invite
Ryan Pressly signed a 2 year contract
Brad Hand was on a 3 year contract
Hendriks, Hader, Colome were on rookie deals
Jensen is the most classic high salary guy, at 5 years.

Didn't sort by saves to indicate quality, rather it's an easy snapshot into the playoff teams last year. There's a lot of ways to make a bullpen, including internally.
 

[Dick Allen]

4 minutes ago, bmags said:

I actualy want everyone to read these because I think it cuts across all of it. I'm in favor of signing Hendriks. I also think signing yates + lastella is great.

Of the top 10 in saves last year:

Hudson signed for a 2 year deal
Rosenthal signed a 1 year deal
Mark Melancon was traded 2 years into his 4-yr 64 million dollar deal after a disappointing start. The braves took all of it and sent decent prospects back (Tristan beck)
Kintzler non roster invite
Ryan Pressly signed a 2 year contract
Brad Hand was on a 3 year contract
Hendriks, Hader, Colome were on rookie deals
Jensen is the most classic high salary guy, at 5 years.

Didn't sort by saves to indicate quality, rather it's an easy snapshot into the playoff teams last year. There's a lot of ways to make a bullpen, including internally.
 

Then maybe the Sox shouldn't leak that Hendriks is their top target then get scared because he wants 4 years.

Edited December 16, 2020 by Dick Allen

[bmags]

1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

Then maybe the Sox shouldn't leak that Hendriks is their top target then get scared because he wants 4 years.

Sure.

Maybe the sox also shouldn't be so terrified of the last years in a players second contract, then routinely pay enormous sums for 1-2 year deals of player's 3rd or 4th contracts, get negative production, and act like they are financially prudent.

There's a lot of improvement to be had.

[striker]

If you think he's worth it for three years, then you are only risking one year of cost. 4/$52m = 6.5WAR. He could break even in two years at his pace.

— Paul Riker (@paulriker) December 14, 2020

Edited December 16, 2020 by striker
Didn't work

[striker]

6.5WAR seems like a low bar for Hendriks.

[bmags]

1 minute ago, striker said:

6.5WAR seems like a low bar for Hendriks.

WAR for relievers is so fickle. I'd happily lower his usage on the sox in a regular season, and we have the bullpen to do that. Just give me a low WHIP and no injuries. Coffee is for closers, WAR is for starters and position players (and bullpen as a whole)

[southsider2k5]

With the depth the Sox have in the rotation, plus the crazy arms the Sox already have in the pen, plus the fact that the odds of at least one of Crochet, Kopech or Cease ending up in the pen in the next couple of years is also really high,  this is one position I can see being willing to walk away from an uncomfortable contract.  Don't get me wrong, I would love to add a guy like Hendriks to the back end of our pen, and it would put the rest of the guys out there into more comfortable and useful positions in innings 5-8 for match up purposes, but we don't need to force it here.

[bmags]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

With the depth the Sox have in the rotation, plus the crazy arms the Sox already have in the pen, plus the fact that the odds of at least one of Crochet, Kopech or Cease ending up in the pen in the next couple of years is also really high,  this is one position I can see being willing to walk away from an uncomfortable contract.  Don't get me wrong, I would love to add a guy like Hendriks to the back end of our pen, and it would put the rest of the guys out there into more comfortable and useful positions in innings 5-8 for match up purposes, but we don't need to force it here.

I think Hendriks is for real. But the funny part to me is essentially they are going to pay the guy the money that goes to players that can be multi-inning fireman, essentially so they can keep Bummer in a multi-inning fireman role.

[Briro2021]

5 hours ago, bmags said:

What?

They traded him in the 3rd season. They will not be giving a RP 4 years.

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, Briro2021 said:

They traded him in the 3rd season. They will not be giving a RP 4 years.

This is an argument for not worrying about a 4 year contract!

[southsider2k5]

9 minutes ago, Briro2021 said:

They traded him in the 3rd season. They will not be giving a RP 4 years.

They didn't trade him because of performance, they traded him because the rebuild was on.  The contract was on point.

[Briro2021]

12 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

They didn't trade him because of performance, they traded him because the rebuild was on.  The contract was on point.

And there is no rebuild now.  They will not be giving 4 years.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Sox fans search for ways to excuse Jerry not spending $13 million dollars in 4 years. It's an odd practice for sure.

[southsider2k5]

11 minutes ago, Briro2021 said:

And there is no rebuild now.  They will not be giving 4 years.

None of those things are connected, but OK.

[Briro2021]

14 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Sox fans search for ways to excuse Jerry not spending $13 million dollars in 4 years. It's an odd practice for sure.

I am not excusing anyone.  I just know how they operate.  No 4th year to a 35 year old RP.

Edited December 16, 2020 by Briro2021

[ron883]

13 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Sox fans search for ways to excuse Jerry not spending $13 million dollars in 4 years. It's an odd practice for sure.

You keep saying that people excuse the owner for being cheap, when in reality they are just be realistic about how the Sox operate. Everybody wants Jerry to break the bank, but we know he won't.