Extensions You’d Like to See

[Jack Parkman]

5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

An extension for Giolito if it includes this season is probably going to end up being $85 or 90 million to get a five year deal done.  So even if he doesn't get to $100 million, it is really darned close, and still leaves him the change at another really long deal after his fills this one up.

I think he'd do it if the total value was in 9 figures. I don't think Jerry would. 

I think the org really believes in Kopech and Crochet. 

Edited December 11, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

I think he'd do it if the total value was in 9 figures. I don't think Jerry would. 

100 million would be effectively full price.  That isn't going to happen.,

[Jack Parkman]

17 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

100 million would be effectively full price.  That isn't going to happen.,

That's my point, and that's what I think it would take to get a deal done. 

And I think that 85-90M is too close to full price to be in Jerry's comfort zone. 

I'd be shocked. 

Edited December 11, 2020 by Jack Parkman

[southsider2k5]

26 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

That's my point, and that's what I think it would take to get a deal done. 

And I think that 85-90M is too close to full price to be in Jerry's comfort zone. 

I'd be shocked. 

I have no idea if Gio wants to get a deal done or not, but that 10 to 15% haircut is about where a deal should happen.  It puts generational wealth into Gios pocket, but gives the Sox the cost savings they would want by signing it early.

[Chicago White Sox]

Some of these extension numbers being thrown around for Giolito are totally off-base.  Again, the Aaron Nola extension is almost a perfect comp for what Giolito should get as a starting point when you consider these factors:

• Years From Free Agency:  Both three
• Prior Production: Nola = 4.5 & 5.4 seasons | Giolito = 5.1 & 5.4 seasons
• Projected Arb Figure: Nola = $6.6M | Gioltio = $5.M
• Age at Time: Nola = 25 | Giolito = 26

The similarities are remarkable, with the only real  difference being Lucas is a year older.  And what did Nola agree to?  A 4/$45M extension plus a team option at $16M with a $4M buyout.  The deal bought two potential years of free agency and provided him guaranteed salaries of $4M, $8M, $12M, & $15M plus a $2M signing bonus.  Overall the commitment was 4/$49M or 5/$61M for the club.  

While I personally would expect Lucas to demand more than what Nola got, I don’t think there is any chance in hell he’s getting $85M to $90M.  The reality is he’d likely want something closer to 4/$55M guaranteed with a total value around 5/$75M if a 5th year club option were exercised.  Perhaps something like $7M in 2021, $10M in 2022, $15M in 2023, & $19M with a 5th year club option at $24M or $4M would work.  That’s big jump from what Nola got just two years later and something I think would be highly interesting to Giolito.  The only question is whether he’s ok with hitting free agency at 31, but given the contracts older pitchers are getting I’m not sure that would be a deal breaker.

[SoxBlanco]

14 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Some of these extension numbers being thrown around for Giolito are totally off-base.  Again, the Aaron Nola extension is almost a perfect comp for what Giolito should get as a starting point when you consider these factors:

• Years From Free Agency:  Both three
• Prior Production: Nola = 4.5 & 5.4 seasons | Giolito = 5.1 & 5.4 seasons
• Projected Arb Figure: Nola = $6.6M | Gioltio = $5.M
• Age at Time: Nola = 25 | Giolito = 26

The similarities are remarkable, with the only real  difference being Lucas is a year older.  And what did Nola agree to?  A 4/$45M extension plus a team option at $16M with a $4M buyout.  The deal bought two potential years of free agency and provided him guaranteed salaries of $4M, $8M, $12M, & $15M plus a $2M signing bonus.  Overall the commitment was 4/$49M or 5/$61M for the club.  

While I personally would expect Lucas to demand more than what Nola got, I don’t think there is any chance in hell he’s getting $85M to $90M.  The reality is he’d likely want something closer to 4/$55M guaranteed with a total value around 5/$75M if a 5th year club option were exercised.  Perhaps something like $7M in 2021, $10M in 2022, $15M in 2023, & $19M with a 5th year club option at $24M or $4M would work.  That’s big jump from what Nola got just two years later and something I think would be highly interesting to Giolito.  The only question is whether he’s ok with hitting free agency at 31, but given the contracts older pitchers are getting I’m not sure that would be a deal breaker.

Good stuff. I think you nailed where things stand and what it would take. 

Probably a crazy thought, but any chance McCann’s departure scares Giolito a little bit, making it more likely for him to pull the trigger on an extension? If he thinks there’s a chance he might regress a little bit, this could be the perfect time for an extension. 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, SoxBlanco said:

Good stuff. I think you nailed where things stand and what it would take. 

Probably a crazy thought, but any chance McCann’s departure scares Giolito a little bit, making it more likely for him to pull the trigger on an extension? If he thinks there’s a chance he might regress a little bit, this could be the perfect time for an extension. 

I think most of these guys have too much confidence in themselves to let something like McCann leaving impact a financial decision for them, but perhaps the Katz hiring is something that improved his willingness to take guaranteed money and delay free agency.  I tend to think Lucas loves being a part of the White Sox family, especially after they stuck with him post a horrific 2018 season, but this is guys’ livelihood and you just never know.  But without question, if you don’t do it now, the chances are near zero of him agreeing to something before free agency.

[Two-Gun Pete]

20 hours ago, bmags said:

Big Pitching FAs next year

Young

Dylan Bundy
Stroman
Gausman
Syndegaard
McCullers
Eduardo Rodriguez

Vets
Kershaw
Greinke
Scherzer

Man, this list is why I didn't want to give away an asset for a rental during the offseason. I would have rather just used money to sign FAs NOW, then use an asset to get a rental at the TDL. Lynn's a good pitcher, no doubt.

But trading for a rental when there are/were a metric fuckton of options coming up seems moronic. A smarter org, like Minnesota or Tampa will acquire one of these guys for their equivalent of Seby Zavala at the TDL. And then this org will wonder how/why that happened.

 

To the point of this thread, I think the SOX have had a short term focus with their acquisitions because they assume that there will be a work stoppage in the near future. I also think this will color their approach for this and next year. Im in agreement with extending Giolito. Getting a TOR SP is a hard thing to do.

But I have no interest in extending a 34 year old with a beer belly. A lot of those guys fall apart, because they don't know what a salad and cardio are. 

[TheCommish]

19 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Full stop.

What?

Garrett Crochet was a consensus first round pick.  You aren't a first round pick if you aren't "highly thought of"

Considering we drafted him as high as we did and players drafted after him were included in the top 100 prospects lists and Crochet wasn't even a mention. Yeah, I'd say he wasn't as highly thought of as he is now that people have seen what he can do. That's what I was saying. If people would have seen what he did, injury free, 102 MPH... he would have been a top 3 pick. We got lucky there wasn't a college season and he didn't get a chance to showcase what he did in the majors. 

[poppysox]

21 hours ago, Rowand44 said:

Ya, I'm honestly not too worried about extending Lynn at this point.  Gio is the obvious one that we need to get done.  Hopefully it happens this year.

People claimed that Moncada & Robert had such big paydays that they couldn't be extended.  Rick must know what to whisper in their ears.  Gio looks difficult to extend but I trust Rick to get it done.  Vaughn, Madrigal, and Lynn will all fall under the Rick Hann spell eventually.  It has been proven that the extension adds trade value so no reason to stop this practice IMO.

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, TheCommish said:

Considering we drafted him as high as we did and players drafted after him were included in the top 100 prospects lists and Crochet wasn't even a mention. Yeah, I'd say he wasn't as highly thought of as he is now that people have seen what he can do. That's what I was saying. If people would have seen what he did, injury free, 102 MPH... he would have been a top 3 pick. We got lucky there wasn't a college season and he didn't get a chance to showcase what he did in the majors. 

If you are putting more faith into top 100 lists than what teams value players at, you are doing it wrong. 

[Y2Jimmy0]

The White Sox would have a $100 million pitcher right now had Wheeler’s fiancé wanted to live in Chicago. There is no under $100 million threshold. Every deal is different. 

[southsider2k5]

4 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Some of these extension numbers being thrown around for Giolito are totally off-base.  Again, the Aaron Nola extension is almost a perfect comp for what Giolito should get as a starting point when you consider these factors:

• Years From Free Agency:  Both three
• Prior Production: Nola = 4.5 & 5.4 seasons | Giolito = 5.1 & 5.4 seasons
• Projected Arb Figure: Nola = $6.6M | Gioltio = $5.M
• Age at Time: Nola = 25 | Giolito = 26

The similarities are remarkable, with the only real  difference being Lucas is a year older.  And what did Nola agree to?  A 4/$45M extension plus a team option at $16M with a $4M buyout.  The deal bought two potential years of free agency and provided him guaranteed salaries of $4M, $8M, $12M, & $15M plus a $2M signing bonus.  Overall the commitment was 4/$49M or 5/$61M for the club.  

While I personally would expect Lucas to demand more than what Nola got, I don’t think there is any chance in hell he’s getting $85M to $90M.  The reality is he’d likely want something closer to 4/$55M guaranteed with a total value around 5/$75M if a 5th year club option were exercised.  Perhaps something like $7M in 2021, $10M in 2022, $15M in 2023, & $19M with a 5th year club option at $24M or $4M would work.  That’s big jump from what Nola got just two years later and something I think would be highly interesting to Giolito.  The only question is whether he’s ok with hitting free agency at 31, but given the contracts older pitchers are getting I’m not sure that would be a deal breaker.

Your numbers are pretty light.  Even without any experience they have Luis Robert $15 million for what would have been his final arb year.  Then $19 million for his first free agent year, with his experience level?  Can't see it. Yoans deal is for $25 million that year.  Even Robert has options for $20 million for his free agent years with zero experience.  If you push years 3/4/5 up to more realistic levels, then you get to that range we are talking about.  Keep in mind the free agent market is over $30 million per year for guys like Giolito.  GIving up maybe $5 million is one thing, but over $10 million?  Can't see it.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

Your numbers are pretty light.  Even without any experience they have Luis Robert $15 million for what would have been his final arb year.  Then $19 million for his first free agent year, with his experience level?  Can't see it. Yoans deal is for $25 million that year.  Even Robert has options for $20 million for his free agent years with zero experience.  If you push years 3/4/5 up to more realistic levels, then you get to that range we are talking about.  Keep in mind the free agent market is over $30 million per year for guys like Giolito.  GIving up maybe $5 million is one thing, but over $10 million?  Can't see it.

My number are light?  I literally just provided the best comp possible for Giolito and that’s exactly how these extensions typically work.  On top of that, I scaled up the total dollars by nearly 25%.  Why are you comparing a possible Giolito extension to what our position players got in their deals? That’s not how these things work.

Edited December 12, 2020 by Chicago White Sox

[Vulture]

3 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Your numbers are pretty light.  Even without any experience they have Luis Robert $15 million for what would have been his final arb year.  Then $19 million for his first free agent year, with his experience level?  Can't see it. Yoans deal is for $25 million that year.  Even Robert has options for $20 million for his free agent years with zero experience.  If you push years 3/4/5 up to more realistic levels, then you get to that range we are talking about.  Keep in mind the free agent market is over $30 million per year for guys like Giolito.  GIving up maybe $5 million is one thing, but over $10 million?  Can't see it.

Giolitos projected arb this year is about 5.5 million. If you bump that 7.5 and 10.5 the following years, 25 million should be sufficient to cover those years. Maybe bump it up to 27 to entice signing beyond. 4/45-5/65 range seems about right to me. 6/9/12/15/18 or slightly higher seems reasonable to me

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Vulture said:

Giolitos projected arb this year is about 5.5 million. If you bump that 7.5 and 10.5 the following years, 25 million should be sufficient to cover those years. Maybe bump it up to 27 to entice signing beyond. 4/45-5/65 range seems about right to me. 6/9/12/15/18 or slightly higher seems reasonable to me

Those numbers are really low. Take a guy like Kris Bryant. His arb 3 number was 18.6, not 10.5.

If you want a pitcher comp, these are Trevor Bauers 3 arb years. While Giolito would give up something in an extension, he isn't giving up THAT much.  There is $37 million in just those three years.  6/10/15 is more realistic with FAs in the low to mid 20's.

There is zero chance that having reached his arb years. Giolito is going to take less than 2/3 of what he could get going year to year.  You are probably more in the 80% range to make it work.

[Vulture]

Huh. I wonder why Bauer got so much more than pitchers who had better production going into that first year of arb. Severino only got like 4.2 million despite having two vastly superior seasons immediately preceding it, along with the Nola example. Bauer had 2.1 and 2.9 war seasons immediately preceding 1st year arb while Severino had 4.1 and 5.4, yet Severino was paid 33% less. Compare pitchers who had 4+ WAR seasons prior to 1st year arb they are closer to my or CWS figures yet Bauer considerably higher.

 

bryant had three 5+ war seasons heading into 1st year arb eligibility and over 21 career war into year 3. I don’t think that’s a suitable comparison. Gio has one 4.1 season and a season that projects to about 3.

if you look at comparable players CWS numbers seem accurate. But Bauer’s inexplicable deviance from the norm does throw a wrench in that. 

Edited December 12, 2020 by Vulture

[Vulture]

Another example. 2017 Carlos Martínez after seasons of 2.6 and 4.1 awarded 4.1 million in first year arb. 2018 Bauer awarded 6.5 mil following 2.1 and 2.9. Then 2019 Severino 4.2 million after 4.1 and 5.4. Why the massive deviance for Bauer? None of those guys had notable seasons prior to the cited seasons to explain the difference.

Edited December 12, 2020 by Vulture

[Chicago White Sox]

6 minutes ago, Vulture said:

Another example. 2017 Carlos Martínez after seasons of 2.6 and 4.1 awarded 4.1 million in first year arb. 2018 Bauer awarded 6.5 mil following 2.1 and 2.9. Then 2019 Severino 4.2 million after 4.1 and 5.4. Why the massive deviance for Bauer? None of those guys had notable seasons prior to the cited seasons to explain the difference.

What were the win totals for each of those guys?  Bauer won 17 games in 2017 despite not great advanced metrics and it’s possible that inflated his year 1 arb figure.  Just looked at Nola‘s 2018 season and he also won 17 games, but was projected for the same year one arbitration amount as Bauer.  He then went ahead and accepted an extension.

Edited December 12, 2020 by Chicago White Sox

[Vulture]

They’re still using wins in arb??

still wouldn’t explain it. Severino had 19

[Vulture]

I suppose I could think of a non baseball reason but I’m not sure I want to inflame a political debate

[Vulture]

If Nola was projected at same amount in first year arb then you have a projected arb for a guy coming off 4.4 and 10.0 war seasons equal to a guy at at 2.1 and 2.9, who then signed a contract that paid less. Makes no sense. If wins accounted for it then Severino wouldn’t have been awarded 33% less for more wins along with vastly superior performance. guess Bauer has some divine force hanging over him. Only logical explanation.

as it relates to giolito I suppose the question comes down to the more commonly applied standard or the inexplicable deviation applied to Bauer. One could easily make the argument it should be similar to Nola, Severino and Martínez considering they had performed at superior levels going into arb 1

Edited December 12, 2020 by Vulture

[Chicago White Sox]

Take it FWIW, but the foodies seem to believe there is optimism for a Giolito extension:

Obviously there is a lot more work to do with the major league roster (Hendriks + Richards + La Stella being my personal dream), but extending Giolito & Lynn is arguably just as important.  

I’m sticking with my personal prediction of a deal in the 5/$75M range for Lucas with the 5th year being a team option.  For the Sox, it buys out two years of free agency for the ace of our pitching staff and strengthens the back-end of a five year contention window.  For Lucas, it guarantees a guy with one TJS already under his belt a lot of guaranteed money (dollars well beyond Nola’s current leading extension) and still allows him to hit free agency at 31 years of age.  With Katz now in the fold, I’m more confident this is something Lucas will seriously consider.

As for Lance, an extension around 2/$40M still feels about right to me.  Some may view that as being too rich, but that’s basically the amount of a qualifying offer and there is zero chance we wouldn’t offer the 2020 version of Lynn a QO if he was still eligible.  Plus those are pretty similar dollars to what J.A. Happ agreed to for similarly aged seasons back in 2019 and he was coming off a lesser season.  And I honestly think that’s a salary he’d agree to given they’d be covering what are more or less his age 35 & 36 seasons.

[Dominikk85]

Offer giolito like 7/100

Offer vaughn something like the Evan white deal. Obviously if you leave him down 3 weeks he is 30 anyway at free agency and not super expensive to extend then but first basemen tend to get overpaid in arbitration because their traditional numbers are better than their war.

 

 

 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

1 minute ago, Dominikk85 said:

Offer giolito like 7/100

Offer vaughn something like the Evan white deal. Obviously if you leave him down 3 weeks he is 30 anyway at free agency and not super expensive to extend then but first basemen tend to get overpaid in arbitration because their traditional numbers are better than their war.

 

 

 

Seems high for Giolito just to buy out a few years. I could be wrong?