2021 Plan for Kopech and Crochet

[chitownsportsfan]

11 minutes ago, ptatc said:

For his health, I don't think you do that until August. If he continues 3 innings a week until then, He could have a few starts in September and into the playoffs. He doesn't impress me as a guy who is going to be more than a 5-6 inning starter anyway.

If they really want to try and protect him I would start thinking about using him as an opener. He seems like a guy that could give you three good innings more often than not.

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, chitownsportsfan said:

If they really want to try and protect him I would start thinking about using him as an opener. He seems like a guy that could give you three good innings more often than not.

That would work too. I think they want to see Cease and Rodon right now though.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

8 minutes ago, ptatc said:

That would work too. I think they want to see Cease and Rodon right now though.

Gotta see what you have in Cease before doing this

[ChiSox59]

So it definitely seems their plan is to use Kopech and Crochet for multiple innings often.  Just as they said they would.  If Kopech is going 2-3 reguarly, shouldn't be too hard to stretch him out mid to late summer to make some starts down the stretch.  

[35thstreetswarm]

Boy, I hope this team lives up to potential because September holds the promise of some pretty dramatic pre-playoff storylines, with the return of Eloy and injection of Kopech/Crochet into the starting rotation mix...

Edited April 6, 2021 by 35thstreetswarm

[ptatc]

1 hour ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

Boy, I hope this team lives up to potential because September holds the promise of some pretty dramatic pre-playoff storylines, with the return of Eloy and injection of Kopech/Crochet into the starting rotation mix...

Crochet won't be. His innings limit will be far too low.

[35thstreetswarm]

40 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Crochet won't be. His innings limit will be far too low.

I'm not so sure--perhaps it depends on how you define "starting rotation." He was basically used as something akin to an opener in last year's playoffs. I certainly don't think he'll be on the Strasburg shelf; if he's dominating I wouldn't be surprised to see him in a starting or near-starting role assuming they limit his innings all season.

[ptatc]

5 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

I'm not so sure--perhaps it depends on how you define "starting rotation." He was basically used as something akin to an opener in last year's playoffs. I certainly don't think he'll be on the Strasburg shelf; if he's dominating I wouldn't be surprised to see him in a starting or near-starting role assuming they limit his innings all season.

His limit will only be about 60 innings. That's what a typical reliever does so there isn't much room for starting unless it's a one inning opener. 

[Jerksticks]

1 minute ago, ptatc said:

His limit will only be about 60 innings. That's what a typical reliever does so there isn't much room for starting unless it's a one inning opener. 

We know it’s about 60?  Dang I thought both might hit 100 or so

[ptatc]

4 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

We know it’s about 60?  Dang I thought both might hit 100 or so

I'm guessing but his max in college was about 65 and last year he only had about 15 competitive innings and probably a few more in games at the alternate site. So I doubt he had more than 30 or so innings last year.

[South Side Hit Men]

5 minutes ago, ptatc said:

His limit will only be about 60 innings. That's what a typical reliever does so there isn't much room for starting unless it's a one inning opener. 

Was this stated by the organization, or your best guess? If he doesn't hit 80 +,  he's not going to factor into a rotation slot next year. Seems short sighted if he is capable health wise to start at the ML Level.

People here are found saying 7 > 6, but 150 + >>>> 60

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

8 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

We know it’s about 60?  Dang I thought both might hit 100 or so

As of now he's pitched 2.1 innings in 5 games . You could say that will be normal or not but it basically equates to 74 innings over a full season without injury. Approx. 160 games divided by 5 games =32 x 2.33 innings =74.56

[EloyJenkins]

Kopech 1-2 times a week at 3 innings per appearance absolutely will save this bullpen, win games and set him up for September rotation transition. Crochet is much more likely to be that high leverage 3-5 batter guy that bridges an inning and sets up bummer/hendriks

[ptatc]

10 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Was this stated by the organization, or your best guess? If he doesn't hit 80 +,  he's not going to factor into a rotation slot next year. Seems short sighted if he is capable health wise to start at the ML Level.

People here are found saying 7 > 6, but 150 + >>>> 60

It's purely my guesstimate.  I've said all along I would not factor him into the rotation until 2023 because of his lack of innings and never learning how to be a starter. I see him being a typical reliever this year and more like what Kopech is doing this year in 2022 for him.

He just hasn't pitched enough yet to build up his arm.

Edited April 6, 2021 by ptatc

[South Side Hit Men]

13 minutes ago, ptatc said:

It's purely my guesstimate.  I've said all along I would not factor him into the rotation until 2023 because of his lack of innings and never learning how to be a starter. I see him being a typical reliever this year and more like what Kopech is doing this year in 2022 for him.

He just hasn't pitched enough yet to build up his arm.

I agree it's likely. I would prefer Crochet to come up as a starter during the second half of next season, working toward 70-80 IP this season. Unlike Kopech who is expected to project fine as a starter, I understand the legitimate expressed concerns of whether Crochet's arm can and will hold up under the strain of a starter's workload.

It is Tony's job to "win today", just want the FO & Organization's goals of balancing short term AND long term roster management to dictate how the team manages workload this season and beyond.

Giolito, Crochet, Cease and Rodon can be a rotation to be "championship caliber" playoff rotation in 2022 - 2023 after gaining solid experience and progression this season. Picking up one or two bullpen arms is much more reasonable financially and feasibly than acquiring the equivalent in SP on the open market.

Edited April 6, 2021 by South Side Hit Men

[35thstreetswarm]

This reminds me of all the "well *obviously* Vaughn will start 2021 in Birmingham" discussions of several months ago. We'll see what happens. I have a sneaking suspicion that if Crochet is dominant going into the playoffs (and we make the playoffs) he'll figure more prominently in our playoff pitching plans than a standard middle reliever. There's also no way there's a 60-inning limit.

[chitownsportsfan]

This is what I think of the plan so far, it's fucking working.

 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

I do feel better about the Kopech plan that I did after spring training.  Seeing him come OUT for his 3rd inning of his first game was inspiring and seeing him throw another 2 in his 2nd was inspiring as well.  Hopefully he is almost never a 1 inning guy like ST.

[ptatc]

2 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

I agree it's likely. I would prefer Crochet to come up as a starter during the second half of next season, working toward 70-80 IP this season. Unlike Kopech who is expected to project fine as a starter, I understand the legitimate expressed concerns of whether Crochet's arm can and will hold up under the strain of a starter's workload.

It is Tony's job to "win today", just want the FO & Organization's goals of balancing short term AND long term roster management to dictate how the team manages workload this season and beyond.

Giolito, Crochet, Cease and Rodon can be a rotation to be "championship caliber" playoff rotation in 2022 - 2023 after gaining solid experience and progression this season. Picking up one or two bullpen arms is much more reasonable financially and feasibly than acquiring the equivalent in SP on the open market.

I think just physically Crochet will not be in the rotation in 2022. He needs to build up innings slowly due to his lack of innings. 

I would not count on him in the rotation until 2023.

[ptatc]

1 hour ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I do feel better about the Kopech plan that I did after spring training.  Seeing him come OUT for his 3rd inning of his first game was inspiring and seeing him throw another 2 in his 2nd was inspiring as well.  Hopefully he is almost never a 1 inning guy like ST.

It's all about building up. I don't think he will be a one inning guy unless it's due to performance in that game.

[lostfan]

8 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I think just physically Crochet will not be in the rotation in 2022. He needs to build up innings slowly due to his lack of innings. 

I would not count on him in the rotation until 2023.

In a perfect world they'd have been easing him back in last year, but pandemic is pandemic, so here we are (also because the pitching was razor-thin then too)

[ptatc]

1 hour ago, lostfan said:

In a perfect world they'd have been easing him back in last year, but pandemic is pandemic, so here we are (also because the pitching was razor-thin then too)

In a perfect world he would have gotten in a full college season starting to build innings. However he probably wouldn't have been there for the Sox to draft either. So good and bad.

[Jerksticks]

I was thinking today that Giolito, Lynn & Keuchel should combine for 180IP x3.  Maybe Keuchel goes a bit under, Lynn a bit over and Gio right on it.   These are 180x3 super competitive innings.  
 

So to get 180x2 competitive innings out of our #4 & #5 slots, we have about 90IP for each of Kopech, Rodon, Cease & Crochet.  This is guessing Cease will probably go quite a bit over 90 and Crochet quite a bit under, and Rodon/Kopech each around 100, conservatively.   
 

Now it takes us 7 guys to get those 5 SP slots to 180, but I’m guessing this crushes the depth of most teams.  Anybody have any idea what other teams realistically have to do to get 900-1000 very competitive SP innings?

[Y2Jimmy0]

16 hours ago, ptatc said:

His limit will only be about 60 innings. That's what a typical reliever does so there isn't much room for starting unless it's a one inning opener. 

He'll throw more than that. They're gonna try to get him between 80-100 IMO 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

He'll throw more than that. They're gonna try to get him between 80-100 IMO 

Both Kopech and Crochet could very well post 2.5-3.0 fWAR this season if they throw between 80-100 innings, and in high leverage situations no less. That’s extremely valuable production for two guys that are still rookies. I’d love their current roles to carry over into this year’s playoffs, where these high leverage relief roles become even more important.

Edited April 7, 2021 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE