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2021 Plan for Kopech and Crochet

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Just now, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Do you think 60 innings up and down (MiLB /MLB) is any more or less stressful to his arm ? Is 100 innings up and down more or less stressful ?

I think 60 high leverage big league innings would be the most stressful, that’s a full season of work for modern relievers, with 100 innings starting at the big league level coming in second, and any time spent in the minors is less stress than either of those. I don’t think moving up and down is a major source of muscle stress, if that’s what you’re asking? I am just thinking about quality of competition.

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24 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I think 60 high leverage big league innings would be the most stressful, that’s a full season of work for modern relievers, with 100 innings starting at the big league level coming in second, and any time spent in the minors is less stress than either of those. I don’t think moving up and down is a major source of muscle stress, if that’s what you’re asking? I am just thinking about quality of competition.

Crochet has thrown so few innings after HS that Idk what they should do with him to be honest. They might think that it's a 3 year process to get him MLB ready as a SP and they want to use him in the bullpen in 2021, start him in the minors in 2022 and back up as an MLB starter in 2023. Didn't someone say that he's thrown 136 innings since HS?

Anyway, you don't take Crochet 11th overall unless you think he can start....but then again, they also got Kelley so maybe they view them in reverse even though Crochet cost more.  They got 2 1st round talents so what does it matter I guess. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

I think 60 high leverage big league innings would be the most stressful, that’s a full season of work for modern relievers, with 100 innings starting at the big league level coming in second, and any time spent in the minors is less stress than either of those. I don’t think moving up and down is a major source of muscle stress, if that’s what you’re asking? I am just thinking about quality of competition.

No thats not what I'm asking. Is he throwing with any more effort in the minors than the majors ? I don't think you can quantity that MLB is any more or less stressful to his arm than any kind of pitching he does. If he starts he may get 5 or 6 days between starts but pitch more innings. If he relieves he throws less pitches and less innings. If it is some kind of combination of both to get to 60 or 100 innings I'd have to go with 100 innings no matter where it is or in what role is more stressful

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5 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

No thats not what I'm asking. Is he throwing with any more effort in the minors than the majors ? I don't think you can quantity that MLB is any more or less stressful to his arm than any kind of pitching he does. If he starts he may get 5 or 6 days between starts but pitch more innings. If he relieves he throws less pitches and less innings. If it is some kind of combination of both to get to 60 or 100 innings I'd have to go with 100 innings no matter where it is or in what role is more stressful

The problem with the stress 9f the pen is the up and down and maybe not going into the game and then warming up again before you pitch.  Starting tends to be less stress because of the regular work and rest. However in his case he needs to build up the innings before he starts regularly.

Its a conundrum. 

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2 minutes ago, ptatc said:

The problem with the stress 9f the pen is the up and down and maybe not going into the game and then warming up again before you pitch.  Starting tends to be less stress because of the regular work and rest. However in his case he needs to build up the innings before he starts regularly.

Its a conundrum. 

Very much so a comundrum. They could give the minor league coaches instructions not to warm him up unless they plan on bringing him in regardless of the game situation thereby reducing the stress. If you warm up with the intention of coming into the game the warm up on the mound is more like a continuation of the warmup in the pen rather then going through the up and dowm nature that relievers typically go through. Don't bring him in with men on base , just have him start innings.

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39 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

No thats not what I'm asking. Is he throwing with any more effort in the minors than the majors ? I don't think you can quantity that MLB is any more or less stressful to his arm than any kind of pitching he does. If he starts he may get 5 or 6 days between starts but pitch more innings. If he relieves he throws less pitches and less innings. If it is some kind of combination of both to get to 60 or 100 innings I'd have to go with 100 innings no matter where it is or in what role is more stressful

I would say that coming into a big league game in the 8th inning of a close game with runners on for a team that wants to win their division is unbelievably more stressful than doing so at AAA. If you lose a AAA game, no one really cares. If you don’t get that strikeout in late May in the big leagues, it could cost you a World Series. You see this in how people pitch quite often, just watch velocities during the year, people ramp it up when it is a key spot. Even early in the season.

The hardest thing you could do to his arm next year is push him way past 125 innings with no history of doing so. But to me, 60 innings of high stress, intense innings as a late inning guy is pretty darn close.

Having Crochet in that role might darn well win the white sox the pennant! But it also might send him under the knife too, and if your 2021 team goes out in the wild card round, having him stretched out to pitch 150 innings might get you win 102 and home field advantage in 2022. Are you willing to sacrifice 2022 to improve your chances in 2021 and maybe increase his injury risk in the process? If so; why the Hell is Adam Eaton your RF? If you’re going to throw Crochet into your 2021 bullpen and say nothing else matters if we win this year...you couldn’t do better than Adam Eaton?

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8 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Wait, you mentioned “Goose” Gossage and then came up with the pitcher who hit a bird with a fastball...you’re really a bird aren’t you? 

27f1cba4ea830f0f9841738fc17204fb37-31-no

This man is for the birds!

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12 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Crochet has thrown so few innings after HS that Idk what they should do with him to be honest. They might think that it's a 3 year process to get him MLB ready as a SP and they want to use him in the bullpen in 2021, start him in the minors in 2022 and back up as an MLB starter in 2023. Didn't someone say that he's thrown 136 innings since HS?

Anyway, you don't take Crochet 11th overall unless you think he can start....but then again, they also got Kelley so maybe they view them in reverse even though Crochet cost more.  They got 2 1st round talents so what does it matter I guess. 

This is essentially the same plan Sale was on which is to put him in a high leverage relief role for his first full year. Not only does that benefit the MLB team,  but hopefully challenge him a bit as hitters adjust to him. If he makes it through the year in one piece, start extending him over the off season into a starting role. 

There is the Aroldis Chapman plan as well, which is to concede that he's not going to be able to throw 102 MPH over 6-7 innings. Crotchet would safely be an elite closer this yea and would be able to channel his elite velocity. Slot him in that role for years to come.

Another way would be to have him pitch in lower-leverage 2-3 innings bursts at the big league level. Ultimately, if he's going to start I think he needs to have a bit less violence in his motion. The risk of having him up in a low-leverage role is that it would be too tempting for TLR to misuse him.

The last way would be to have him pitch 3-5 innings in AAA every six days and see exactly what you have. If he can maintain his velocity and command two times through the order then you have to at least try him as a starter next year. The advantage of AAA would be that everything would be about his development and not winning the division. He could try not throwing 102 every pitch and try and simplify his motion. 

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The wrinkle that makes this really interesting is if the Sox start say two months late, Crochet is on the major league roster the whole season.  Kopech also get affected here.

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The Sox are going to need all of these guys, and more. Face it, they only had 3 guys pitch 35 innings, and 4 guys pitch 30 innings and one of them, they traded away. To expect them all to ramp up to normal in 2021 would be shortsided. They need several more pitchers.

Edited by Dick Allen
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5 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

The Sox are going to need all of these guys, and more. Face it, they only had 3 guys pitch 35 innings, and 4 guys pitch 30 innings and one of them, they traded away. To expect them all to ramp up to normal in 2021 would be shortsided. They need several more pitchers.

Exactly what I've been thinking. 

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On 12/18/2020 at 12:47 PM, southsider2k5 said:

ASSUMING WE HAVE A NORMAL-ISH SEASON

Kopech starts at Charlotte and works up slowly to 5 to 6 innings, and comes up around June unless other problems dictate an earlier arrival.

Crochet starts at Birmingham as a stater, working mostly 75 to 80 pitches an outing getting around a dozen starts between AA and AAA before evenutally coming up as a reliever, to finish the season.  He ends up somewhere between 100-120 innings this year.

This.  / thread.  

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55 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Doesn’t sound like that will happen with Crochet though.

Agreed. Based on what Getz said, it sounds like he will be a part of the major league bullpen from the start of the year, and then they will sprinkle in some starts throughout the year to get his innings up. Is that how you guys took it, too?

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45 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Agreed. Based on what Getz said, it sounds like he will be a part of the major league bullpen from the start of the year, and then they will sprinkle in some starts throughout the year to get his innings up. Is that how you guys took it, too?

100% how I took it.  And my guess is those starts are opening double headers and things of that nature.

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8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

100% how I took it.  And my guess is those starts are opening double headers and things of that nature.

Don't love that plan, but I anything that keeps Crochet on the big league roster is a benefit for the 2021 club, no doubt.  

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9 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

100% how I took it.  And my guess is those starts are opening double headers and things of that nature.

And then he'll be so effective in a few outings that the White Sox will need him to cover the closer's role, and he'll be there permanently.

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Just now, ChiSox59 said:

Don't love that plan, but I anything that keeps Crochet on the big league roster is a benefit for the 2021 club, no doubt.  

I’d rather just develop him as a starter in AA next year and call him up to serve as a reliever for the stretch run, but it doesn’t appear they’ll be going down that path.  It does sound like Kopech will open in AAA based on what Merkin has been signaling, so at least that’s a plus.

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1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

And then he'll be so effective in a few outings that the White Sox will need him to cover the closer's role, and he'll be there permanently.

Sign Hendriks and hopefully that’s not an option.

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2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Don't love that plan, but I anything that keeps Crochet on the big league roster is a benefit for the 2021 club, no doubt.  

I don't mind it. Teams are going to need innings from everyone this year. It's going to be a really weird year and there is no roadmap to how to handle this. Ramp him up slowly, same with Kopech, and leave some gas in the tank for the second half. I honestly think teams are going to need like 7 starters this year, bullpen days, and piggy backing just to get through the season - assuming it's a full schedule.

I'm just happy to hear they are still going to work him up to being a starter. 

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8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Sign Hendriks and hopefully that’s not an option.

Sign Hendriks and another reliever and you don't have to worry about not having Crochet in the bullpen (until the stretch run).

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On 12/19/2020 at 10:29 PM, Vulture said:

27f1cba4ea830f0f9841738fc17204fb37-31-no

This man is for the birds!

That was the greatest celebrity roast in history. Norm, one of my Top 3 all time greats.

Also was the best talk show guest appearance in television history.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5F6dXcW-_Fc

 

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I don't trust Crochet's forearm. I just feel like that's an injury waiting to happen, but that to the side what I hope they do is utilize them as openers all season long. If you want to or have to manipulate time then let them start off in AAA.. otherwise I say that you use them in tandem with the bottom of the rotation. Have Crochet start on Cease days and then Kopech on whoever we pick up and/or whoever is the number 5. Let them go through the top of the order - maybe come back for second or third inning. Still gets them in rythm for starting every fifth day, it allows them to prep and warm up the same instead of mid-game, gets them exposure to the toughest part of the lineup, and builds innings while keeping them fresh for the playoffs. Come playoff time just utilize them in the same way with a shorter/longer leash based on results. 

By next year you can have them both ready for a full season. 

 

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