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Cincinnati Reds Fire Sale Thread


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Kopech + Vaughn for Castillo??

 

 

Anyway... Reds look to be on full on sell mode after Heyman's report that they won't be signing Bauer. 

 

Sonny Gray

Luis Castillo

Eugenio Suarez (Nationals?)

All available (and probably more)

 

Figured this is a good thread to talk about their SPs and assets to trade around the league.

 

 

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46 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

To me that would be a nonstarter.

That is why the Sox got lynn.

Castillo is 28 and has 3 years of control, that deal starts with a top20 prospect (60fv) or it doesn't happen at all.

Fans always want to trade 6 mediocre prospects for a star but that doesn't work in reality, teams don't go quantity over quality because most 40fv prospects don't make the show at all.

Castillo is projected for 4 war, only 28 and has 3 years of control, those drills don't happen without a 60fv or a good young major leaguer as headliner.

Imo the sox don't need to make such a trade, they can sign another guy and keep their prospects.

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2 hours ago, iWiN4PreP said:

 

Kopech + Vaughn for Castillo??

 

 

Anyway... Reds look to be on full on sell mode after Heyman's report that they won't be signing Bauer. 

 

Sonny Gray

Luis Castillo

Eugenio Suarez (Nationals?)

All available (and probably more)

 

Figured this is a good thread to talk about their SPs and assets to trade around the league.

 

 

I swear anytime anyone is rumored to come available everyone wets their pants and wants to trade our top prospects. 

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2 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

That is why the Sox got lynn.

Castillo is 28 and has 3 years of control, that deal starts with a top20 prospect (60fv) or it doesn't happen at all.

Fans always want to trade 6 mediocre prospects for a star but that doesn't work in reality, teams don't go quantity over quality because most 40fv prospects don't make the show at all.

Castillo is projected for 4 war, only 28 and has 3 years of control, those drills don't happen without a 60fv or a good young major leaguer as headliner.

Imo the sox don't need to make such a trade, they can sign another guy and keep their prospects.

No, the Sox got Lynn because they panicked and sold low on Dunning. This organization needs to get better at valuing their talent and being patient and getting good deals. They did a great job of that with Quintana, getting the Cubs to panic and hand over Eloy and Cease. They could've kept Dunning and according to FanGraphs gotten the same caliber pitcher as Lynn for ~50 less innings. The market only demands a 60 FV prospect for Castillo if they can find one elsewhere. There's no need to give another team surplus talent just because they want it.

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5 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

I'd trade Kopech + for Castillo, but not Vaughn also. Castillo is good, cheap and under control for 3-4 more years, but I'm not dealing two top 20 prospects for him

I wouldn't deal Kopech for him 1 for 1. That would only increase the MLB talent level for 2 months and the Sox would lose 2 years of control for it.

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4 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

I wouldn't deal Kopech for him 1 for 1. That would only increase the MLB talent level for 2 months and the Sox would lose 2 years of control for it.

I think you know you're getting with Castillo. Castillo is a good #1/great #2. I don't think you know what you're getting with Kopech. He hasn't pitched in an MLB game in like 2 years. I'm also someone who thinks his mind hasn't been on baseball in 2 years, some in and some out of his control. I'd definitely deal Kopech for him 1 for 1 but Cincy wouldn't. I was thinking Kopech, Stiever and Thompson

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17 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

No, the Sox got Lynn because they panicked and sold low on Dunning. This organization needs to get better at valuing their talent and being patient and getting good deals. They did a great job of that with Quintana, getting the Cubs to panic and hand over Eloy and Cease. They could've kept Dunning and according to FanGraphs gotten the same caliber pitcher as Lynn for ~50 less innings. The market only demands a 60 FV prospect for Castillo if they can find one elsewhere. There's no need to give another team surplus talent just because they want it.

I think You are overrating the influence of negotiating skills, panicking etc in modern baseball.

This was very important 10-20 years ago but in these days pretty much every front office has a pretty good concept of surplus value and real "fleecings" are quite rare.

Dunning is a number 5 starter, longenhagen last had him as a 45 fv, he certainly isn't the headliner for a controlled star.

There is not much precedent of a 28 year old star getting traded without at least moving a 55 or an established major leaguer in his prime.

If they could have gotten more for dunning the sox would have done it.

I believe the price for castillo is a 60 AND a 50 (but certainly not vaughn and kopech, that would be too much).

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1 minute ago, Dominikk85 said:

I think You are overrating the influence of negotiating skills, panicking etc in modern baseball.

This was very important 10-20 years ago but in these days pretty much every front office has a pretty good concept of surplus value and real "fleecings" are quite rare.

Dunning is a number 5 starter, longenhagen last had him as a 45 fv, he certainly isn't the headliner for a controlled star.

There is not much precedent of a 28 year old star getting traded without at least moving a 55 or an established major leaguer in his prime.

If they could have gotten more for dunning the sox would have done it.

I believe the price for castillo is a 60 AND a 50 (but certainly not vaughn and kopech, that would be too much).

People need to start realizing that FV is not the end all be all and that prospects who have had success at AA or above are inherently more valuable than ones who haven't been above Rookie or A- ball. Further, FV goes completely out the window once a player reaches MLB. Dunning projects on Steamer, which is always conservative, to be a ~2.5 WAR pitcher next year. That's 55 on the FV system as I recall, and again not taking into account the level at which it's happening. Dunning would be a good headliner in this deal. Yes, it would take more pieces, but I believe it could get done, and if it couldn't, it's because some other team overpaid.

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1 hour ago, Dam8610 said:

I wouldn't deal Kopech for him 1 for 1. That would only increase the MLB talent level for 2 months and the Sox would lose 2 years of control for it.

And the Sox are not dealing Kopech.   Right now his trade value is nowhere close to his actual value.

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