Cincinnati Reds Fire Sale Thread

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, Flash said:

But don't you think Padres, Angels, Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Nats, Astros or any number of other teams would love to pry away Castillo and might open the pursestrings?  Taking on Moustakis' contract as part of the deal is a small price to pay considering he is far from 'dead money'. 

I honestly don't know why people write these things.

Indeed I do think other teams exist and may try to do stuff.

[southsider2k5]

12 minutes ago, Flash said:

But don't you think Padres, Angels, Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Nats, Astros or any number of other teams would love to pry away Castillo and might open the pursestrings?  Taking on Moustakis' contract as part of the deal is a small price to pay considering he is far from 'dead money'. 

Except this isn't a normal year.

[poppysox]

57 minutes ago, SoxSteve said:

why in the fuck are some here to get rid of our best prospects all the time? if I hear Vaughn and Madrigals name come up in a trade thread I will fucking puke. We need a DH/ First baseman now and 2 years from now. he is on our goddam roster who we took with the 3rd pick . Why would we want to trade that guy? Stupid talk but ive been reading it since we drafted him so I don't expect it to stop now.

I was one of those like you that would do the slow burn every time Madrigal was mentioned in these pretend deals.  Now I just keep my nose out of the discussion until there is really something to get upset about.  I trust RH won't be trading either guy mentioned without us getting the upper hand in the deal.

[roto]

17 minutes ago, Flash said:

But don't you think Padres, Angels, Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Nats, Astros or any number of other teams would love to pry away Castillo and might open the pursestrings?  Taking on Moustakis' contract as part of the deal is a small price to pay considering he is far from 'dead money'. 

Yes, the Padres and Astros have the prospect currency and the Mets, Yankees, and Nats have the money to compete with a WS offer.  The Angles and Red Sox have bloated payrolls and themselves should be trying to unload some salary.  Just because other teams can put together interesting offers is no reason for the Sox not to be in on Castillo.  Given Moustakas' body type and the future payroll space he takes up, taking on that contract is not a "small price to pay".

[Chicago White Sox]

I don’t see the need to give up a ton of assets for Castillo now that we have Lynn.

[Flash]

2 hours ago, roto said:

Yes, the Padres and Astros have the prospect currency and the Mets, Yankees, and Nats have the money to compete with a WS offer.  The Angles and Red Sox have bloated payrolls and themselves should be trying to unload some salary.  Just because other teams can put together interesting offers is no reason for the Sox not to be in on Castillo.  Given Moustakas' body type and the future payroll space he takes up, taking on that contract is not a "small price to pay".

What? Moustakas is a 30 HR +/800+ OPS LH bat who can play multiple positions with a contract commensurate with his production (@$14M in '21). If we had a chance to attract Mouse and Castillo for a Madrigal led package we would be CRAZY not to. BUT...not to worry because we would be outbid by 28 other teams.

[Dominikk85]

I think generally the market is worse for selling teams, especially when you need to attach contract money.

Less teams will be trying to compete and spend money and a lot will use the financial situation as an excuse to retool. 

This means the market for castillo might not be as robust as usual.

Under normal circumstances of course the headliner would be a top15 overall prospect And the second piece a top100 too as we are talking about a 28yo star pitcher with 3 years.

The package would not quite be like the sale package but still pretty close (not a top3 and a top40 prospect like the sox got but more like 12th and 70th overall prospect).

However with this situation and financial constraints he might be a bit cheaper but the headliner should still at least be a 55fv if not a 60.

If you get him for a 55 and a 45 that would be a huge bargain.

However the sox could of course use him but with giolito, keuchel and lynn I'm not sure they really need him, they can just as well get a solid 4 and have a well above average rotation.

That is the good thing about the lynn trade, by surplus value you likely lose that deal but it puts the sox in a comfortable position were they now just can wait out the market.

In theory they could now just wait till March and see who is desperate to sign then.

Edited December 22, 2020 by Dominikk85

[roto]

10 hours ago, Flash said:

What? Moustakas is a 30 HR +/800+ OPS LH bat who can play multiple positions with a contract commensurate with his production (@$14M in '21). If we had a chance to attract Mouse and Castillo for a Madrigal led package we would be CRAZY not to. BUT...not to worry because we would be outbid by 28 other teams.

I never said he's dead money.  He remains a good bat if you can keep him playing 2nd or 3rd base.  At 32 years and 225 pounds I question how agile he is to remain at these key defensive positions longer term.  And your not just paying $14 in 2021, you are committing to pay him $52 million over the next 3 years.  With Abreu and Eloy needing to transition to DH over the same 3 year term, it is essential that Moose stay at 2nd or 3rd base defensively.  It's a salary dump by Cincy and It's an avenue for the Sox to add to their rotation without cleaning out their farm.  You just cannot keep adding expensive DHs to this team.  Maybe if you're lucky you can get an acceptable 2021 at 2nd base out of him and then move him to another team before it becomes obvious that he's a DH but the Sox usually never get that lucky.  There are teams that need starting pitching and a 2nd baseman, but do they have the payroll to fit Castillo and Moustakas on it? 

 

 

m 

[Flash]

I agree as we sit here today it's difficult to speculate on Moose' ultimate position 2-3 years from now but the bat definitely plays. For '21, a Castillo/Moose combo would check in at slightly less than $19M. If there is a way for Sox to pull it off without moving any of our perceived 'untouchables' I'd do it in a heartbeat. In fact, I'd consider moving an untouchable 😉

[Vulture]

Depending on who you consider untouchable I don’t think that’s happening. Though in recent history, the Reds have been a very stupid organization so I could be wrong. 

[Flash]

3 hours ago, Vulture said:

Depending on who you consider untouchable I don’t think that’s happening. Though in recent history, the Reds have been a very stupid organization so I could be wrong. 

I'd offer Madrigal, Cease, Lopez and Rutherford for Castillo and Moose. Doubt it would be enough but it might get the conversation started.

[oldsox]

1 hour ago, Flash said:

I'd offer Madrigal, Cease, Lopez and Rutherford for Castillo and Moose. Doubt it would be enough but it might get the conversation started.

You're nuts.  Cinci would jump on that like a tall dog.

[Flash]

au contraire...White Sox package = 57.9 Surplus Value (Cease 22.4, Madrigal 29.5, Rutherford 6 and Lopez 0)

                         Reds = 95.2 (Castillo 114.8, Moose minus 19.6)

I understand many here do not subscribe to Surplus Value as a proxy for actual market value but, in this case, its not even close. Plus, Moose' contract is arguably expensive but the guy can mash and play multiple IF positions. I'd happily swap out Madrigal for Moose and Cease for Castillo. Lopez and Rutherford are superfluous in this deal. But, like I said, unlikely to be anywhere near enough...especially in an auction scenario.

[Chicago White Sox]

26 minutes ago, Flash said:

au contraire...White Sox package = 57.9 Surplus Value (Cease 22.4, Madrigal 29.5, Rutherford 6 and Lopez 0)

                         Reds = 95.2 (Castillo 114.8, Moose minus 19.6)

I understand many here do not subscribe to Surplus Value as a proxy for actual market value but, in this case, its not even close. Plus, Moose' contract is arguably expensive but the guy can mash and play multiple IF positions. I'd happily swap out Madrigal for Moose and Cease for Castillo. Lopez and Rutherford are superfluous in this deal. But, like I said, unlikely to be anywhere near enough...especially in an auction scenario.

Surplus value is without question an important part of trade discussions, but everyone is going to value players differently.  Where are these figures coming from?

[Flash]

34 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Surplus value is without question an important part of trade discussions, but everyone is going to value players differently.  Where are these figures coming from?

Baseball Trade Values (baseballtradevalues.com)

[oldsox]

4 hours ago, Flash said:

au contraire...White Sox package = 57.9 Surplus Value (Cease 22.4, Madrigal 29.5, Rutherford 6 and Lopez 0)

                         Reds = 95.2 (Castillo 114.8, Moose minus 19.6)

I understand many here do not subscribe to Surplus Value as a proxy for actual market value but, in this case, its not even close. Plus, Moose' contract is arguably expensive but the guy can mash and play multiple IF positions. I'd happily swap out Madrigal for Moose and Cease for Castillo. Lopez and Rutherford are superfluous in this deal. But, like I said, unlikely to be anywhere near enough...especially in an auction scenario.

You're still nuts.  Madrigal for Moose?  Are you serious?  I feel like John McEnroe.  Are you serious?

[Chicago White Sox]

4 hours ago, Flash said:

Baseball Trade Values (baseballtradevalues.com)

While the tool itself is cool, the values of the individual players are very much hit or miss.  And prospect rankings in particular could be all over the place.

[Quin]

8 minutes ago, oldsox said:

You're still nuts.  Madrigal for Moose?  Are you serious?  I feel like John McEnroe.  Are you serious?

I mean, the real fish here is Castillo while not giving up Kopech-Vaughn-Crochet.

Your rotation is stacked 1-4 with Kopech ready to slot in at #5 and all the young guns (Crochet, Kelley, Dalquist, Thompson, Vera) kept in house.

The lineup becomes Anderson - Moncada (S) - Abreu - Jimenez - Grandal (S) - Robert - Moustakas (L) - Vaughn - Eaton (L). Maybe you play around, but everyone in that lineup has power aside from Eaton. Moustakas' contract sucks, but you deal with it.

If the Sox (8th best bullpen last season) do sign Hendriks and get a full season out of Bummer, in conjunction with the other moves, you're looking at the likely AL favorite. You worry about the longterm solution at 2B down the road.

[Dominikk85]

I guess how cheap castillo comes in prospects depends on how much salary you are willing to take on.

I already said usually it would require a 60 tv and a 50fv to get castillo however you might get him for a very light package (say a 50fv and two 45s) if you are willing to take on 25-30  mil of salary.

Math is a 60fv is worth about 60m and a 50 about 25m and a 45 about 7m.

This means the 60 and 50 package is worth 85m and the 50,45,45 is worth about 40m.

 

This means some difference has to be paid because obviously castillo is worth more than 40m.

Edited December 24, 2020 by Dominikk85

[Flash]

2 hours ago, oldsox said:

You're still nuts.  Madrigal for Moose?  Are you serious?  I feel like John McEnroe.  Are you serious?

Agree to disagree. Call me nuts.

[fathom]

1 minute ago, Flash said:

Agree to disagree. Call me nuts.

That trade is a no brainer for the Sox to make. Reds would want more.

[Flash]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

While the tool itself is cool, the values of the individual players are very much hit or miss.  And prospect rankings in particular could be all over the place.

Not sure what you are referring to. Do you mean the methodology BTV uses to arrive at surplus value?

[Flash]

1 minute ago, fathom said:

That trade is a no brainer for the Sox to make. Reds would want more.

Yep. 

[Dominikk85]

7 hours ago, Flash said:

au contraire...White Sox package = 57.9 Surplus Value (Cease 22.4, Madrigal 29.5, Rutherford 6 and Lopez 0)

                         Reds = 95.2 (Castillo 114.8, Moose minus 19.6)

I understand many here do not subscribe to Surplus Value as a proxy for actual market value but, in this case, its not even close. Plus, Moose' contract is arguably expensive but the guy can mash and play multiple IF positions. I'd happily swap out Madrigal for Moose and Cease for Castillo. Lopez and Rutherford are superfluous in this deal. But, like I said, unlikely to be anywhere near enough...especially in an auction scenario.

Isnt 30 mil a bit light on madrigal? Longenhagen has him a 55 which is worth about 40-45m.

The 30m would put him at more like a 50.

[Chicago White Sox]

38 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

Isnt 30 mil a bit light on madrigal? Longenhagen has him a 55 which is worth about 40-45m.

The 30m would put him at more like a 50.

Longenhagen is probably higher on Madrigal than most other publications.  For example, Pipeline just did a 2018 redraft and didn’t even have Nick in the top 10.  A think 50 FV grade is probably consensus given a complete lack of power potential at the moment.