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Joe Musgrove Thread

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2 hours ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Got it, so ignore the 1st month of 2019 and last 25% of 2020 where he was dominant to fit your argument so he looks like a shitty pitcher. That is the definition of cherry picking stats. But let me try this, if I take Musgrove's April of 2019 an September of 2020, his ERA was 1.80 over 60 innings, looks like an ace to me. The point is, you either use the full 2 years, or 2020 alone, cherry picking stats like you're doing makes for a faulty argument.

And if you want to use 2 years stats, you are conveniently ignoring the fact that pitchers could make improvement during off seasons (especially with modern day data and technology), Musgrove has shown he's drastically improved his secondary pitches in 2020, but you're still stuck in the 90s with your ERA argument.

Edit - I decided to look at this all so important 32 game sample myself. He had not 5.50, but 5.28 ERA, 4.26 4,30 xFIP. Still pretty solid underlying numbers in this arbitrary date range where we conveniently ignored his best stretches. What's influencing the 5.28 ERA? a 63.4% LOB rate, literally the worst out of all the 80 qualifying pitchers over that period. In other words, he has the shitty Pitt bullpen to thank.

 

Having the worst strand rate in baseball seems like a pretty logical reason for your ERA to be a full run higher than your FIP.

 

1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Cherry picking is taking two games in May and two games in July and a game in August and September and excluding them...which is wholly unfair.  But Im looking at 32 consecutive starts over two seasons and OK....I used shorthand...Ill accept 5.28.  You know who had 33 starts with a 5.38 ERA in 2019 but against the DH league...yup Reylo.  Im fine with trading assets but Musgrove had no success before 2019 and his success in 2020 was not some build to a crescendo...Im not excluding 25% of the year...he had two good starts at the very end of the year and four good starts at the very beginning of the previous year and for the next year and a half he was Reylo and if that doesnt give you pause nothing will.

 

Cherry picking is picking arbitrary measurements that make no sense traditionally to make the numbers fit your narrative. Taking 32 consecutive starts over 2 seasons is cherry picking, because why ignore the rest of those seasons? The only real reason to do it is to make the numbers fit your narrative. When using statistical analysis, the numbers should drive your narrative rather than being forced to fit it.

 

32 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

So what would Musgrove theoretically cost?  The Pirates are going to be targeting younger, high risk / high reward type prospects, so not sure Stiever would be of much interest to then.  I worry they would want Kelley and to me that would be a no go.  If not him, Matthew Thompson is probably the most attractive centerpiece that we might be open to trading.  Does him, James Beard, and say Jose Rodriguez get it done?  Is that really a better play than just signing Garrett Richards to fill the #4 spot?  I’ll admit Musgrove is fairly intriguing, just not sure I want to trade more assets for a short-term rotation piece, even ones multiple years away.

If Musgrove only costs a Dalquist or Thompson as a headliner, that should get done ASAP. It's not just about filling the 4 spot of the rotation. This is a pitcher who could definitely be a 3, and might even be able to be a 2 on a team with solid defense and bullpen, and thereby not potentially leave the rotation completely screwed after 2021, plus position the 2021 team even better for contention. A Q or Richards on a 1 year deal leaves the Sox scrambling to fill 2 rotation spots next offseason, and I don't think it's reasonable for us to trust that this front office will ever spend in free agency to fill the holes on the roster.

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1 hour ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Pitching behind a bad defense and bad bullpen has a lot to do with that. In an environment where those areas are league average or better, I think his stats should look a lot better. Since arriving to Pittsburgh, he has the 2nd worst LOB % of all pitchers over 300 IP, and the Pitt defense has been in the bottom 3rd during that stretch as well.

I think thats all reasonable.    Sometimes you have to take a chance on an ex-Pittsburgh pitcher.  Im just nervous and miss lefty Q and fear giving up valuable assets on a maybe.  

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1 hour ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Pitching behind a bad defense and bad bullpen has a lot to do with that. In an environment where those areas are league average or better, I think his stats should look a lot better. Since arriving to Pittsburgh, he has the 2nd worst LOB % of all pitchers over 300 IP, and the Pitt defense has been in the bottom 3rd during that stretch as well.

So which of those describes the Houston Astro’s?

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17 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So which of those describes the Houston Astro’s?

His FIP was much closer to his ERA in his time with the Astros. His ERA was never half a run higher than his FIP in his time in Houston.

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13 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

His FIP was much closer to his ERA in his time with the Astros. His ERA was never half a run higher than his FIP in his time in Houston.

2017, FIP 4.38, ERA 4.77, difference of 0.39. 2020 Pirates, FIP 3.42, ERA 3.86, difference of 0.44. I mean, that 2nd decimal place, that is...um....everything? 

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24 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So which of those describes the Houston Astro’s?

His first season with Astros his FIP was slightly higher than ERA, second season there was it was considerably lower, but it was also a season where he struggled as a starter but also ran into tough luck with BABIP and high HR% as a starter.

It was 4 years ago and his secondary pitches have improved so much since then I wouldn't read too much into it. The only argument you could make where his FIP is not a good indicator of his skillset is if he consistently allows hard contact and extract base hits and putting runners in scoring positions. Such is not the case in 2017 (and other years for that matter), his xERA, which factors in the quality of contact he allows, backs up his FIP as well.

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1 minute ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

His first season with Astros his FIP was slightly higher than ERA, second season there was it was considerably lower, but it was also a season where he struggled as a starter but also ran into tough luck with BABIP and high HR% as a starter.

It was 4 years ago and his secondary pitches have improved so much since then I wouldn't read too much into it. The only argument you could make where his FIP is not a good indicator of his skillset is if he consistently allows hard contact and extract base hits and putting runners in scoring positions. Such is not the case in 2017 (and other years for that matter), his xERA, which factors in the quality of contact he allows, backs up his FIP as well.

In...62 innings pitched as a rookie. And that's the only time.

You're trying to tell me that his FIP is higher than his ERA in those 2 years because his HR rate is  high and his BABIP is high. You say he struggled with his BABIP in 2017 - it was .315 that year, and his career mark is .316.  In 2018, his BABIP is .294, his HR/FB is 10.2%, and yet his FIP is 0.47 below his ERA, a difference of 0.03 from 2020. The years where the FIP and ERA difference is larger - his BABIP is lower and his HR%ages were lower! 

This is one of those things that has hung with a guy, quite consistently, for 4 years, and "it's entirely by chance" seems inadequate.

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1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

In...62 innings pitched as a rookie. And that's the only time.

You're trying to tell me that his FIP is higher than his ERA in those 2 years because his HR rate is  high and his BABIP is high. You say he struggled with his BABIP in 2017 - it was .315 that year, and his career mark is .316.  In 2018, his BABIP is .294, his HR/FB is 10.2%, and yet his FIP is 0.47 below his ERA, a difference of 0.03 from 2020. The years where the FIP and ERA difference is larger - his BABIP is lower and his HR%ages were lower! 

This is one of those things that has hung with a guy, quite consistently, for 4 years, and "it's entirely by chance" seems inadequate.

in 2017 as a starter, he had a 6 ERA and 5 FIP, a full run difference. His BABIP as a starter was .338, league average was .297, he had LOB% of 67% vs league average of 72%. His HR/FB% was 18% while league average was 13%. The first an last part, especially, is what attributed to the huge gap.

But, instead of making all these counter arguments, and since I already gave you the data that explains why his FIP was half a run lower than his ERA from 2018-20, why do you not believe his FIP is not a good indicator of his ability in 2017? I would like to hear that argument.

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Just now, thxfrthmmrs said:

in 2017 as a starter, he had a 6 ERA and 5 FIP, a full run difference. His BABIP as a starter was .338, league average was .297, he had LOB% of 67% vs league average of 72%. His HR/FB% was 18% while league average was 13%. The first an last part, especially, is what attributed to the huge gap.

But, instead of making all these counter arguments, and since I already gave you the data that explains why his FIP was half a run lower than his ERA from 2018-20, why do you not believe his FIP is not a good indicator of his ability in 2017? I would like to hear that argument.

Well at least we know you no longer have a problem with Cherry-picking someone's stats.

Musgrove.jpg

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1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Well at least we know you no longer have a problem with Cherry-picking someone's stats.

Musgrove.jpg

How is that cherry picking? Joe Musgrove will be a starter going forward, why would I want to look at his numbers as an RP?

Also you didn't answer my question why FIP isn't a good indicator.

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6 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

How is that cherry picking? Joe Musgrove will be a starter going forward, why would I want to look at his numbers as an RP?

Also you didn't answer my question why FIP isn't a good indicator.

Because you're the one who defined excluding stats because they make your argument look better as cherry picking stats earlier in this thread.

 
Quote

 

3 hours ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Got it, so ignore the 1st month of 2019 and last 25% of 2020 where he was dominant to fit your argument so he looks like a shitty pitcher. That is the definition of cherry picking stats.

 

And second, because consistently, 4 years in a row, his FIP has not been a good indicator for his ERA, and you're trying to blame that on Pittsburgh's defense while cherry-picking it in Houston to avoid this being a consistent story. 

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1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Because you're the one who defined excluding stats because they make your argument look better as cherry picking stats earlier in this thread.

 

And second, because consistently, 4 years in a row, his FIP has not been a good indicator for his ERA, and you're trying to blame that on Pittsburgh's defense while cherry-picking it in Houston to avoid this being a consistent story. 

Cherry picking is arbitrarily selecting stats without a reason to select those stats or when the stats not used are just as good of information to use for analysis as stats used. I think you absolutely knows the differences between an SP and RP, they way they pitches in their role and the pitches they use, it highly irrelevant to use Musgrove's RP stats from 4 years ago to draw conclusion on his ability as a starter going forward.

For the last time, you keep stating his ERA is higher than his FIP, but you're not explaining why his ERA is a better indicator or his FIP is a worse indicator. Do you have an argument here why we need to look at his ERA instead of FIP? You just keep avoiding this question and I don't know if you really have an argument.

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12 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Cherry picking is arbitrarily selecting stats without a reason to select those stats or when the stats not used are just as good of information to use for analysis as stats used.

You mean like citing a guy's numbers from 5 years ago in 62 innings as a rookie?

13 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Cherry picking is arbitrarily selecting stats without a reason to select those stats or when the stats not used are just as good of information to use for analysis as stats used. I think you absolutely knows the differences between an SP and RP, they way they pitches in their role and the pitches they use, it highly irrelevant to use Musgrove's RP stats from 4 years ago to draw conclusion on his ability as a starter going forward.

For the last time, you keep stating his ERA is higher than his FIP, but you're not explaining why his ERA is a better indicator or his FIP is a worse indicator. Do you have an argument here why we need to look at his ERA instead of FIP? You just keep avoiding this question and I don't know if you really have an argument.

Quite simply, if FIP is supposed to be predictive of future performance, then you should not find a consistent trend of FIP being lower than ERA for a pitcher every single year over 500 innings by a similar amount every year. Statistically, that is quite unlikely, unless there is something that is not being captured by simply random behavior - which is the conclusion one would draw here. Over his career, Javier Vazquez was similar - an FIP consistently better than his ERA in many seasons (not all but longer career). It is interesting to see that feature in the pitcher I'm comparing him to.

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58 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

In...62 innings pitched as a rookie. And that's the only time.

You're trying to tell me that his FIP is higher than his ERA in those 2 years because his HR rate is  high and his BABIP is high. You say he struggled with his BABIP in 2017 - it was .315 that year, and his career mark is .316.  In 2018, his BABIP is .294, his HR/FB is 10.2%, and yet his FIP is 0.47 below his ERA, a difference of 0.03 from 2020. The years where the FIP and ERA difference is larger - his BABIP is lower and his HR%ages were lower! 

This is one of those things that has hung with a guy, quite consistently, for 4 years, and "it's entirely by chance" seems inadequate.

Over 4 years, sure, but at least 3 of them were with a bad bullpen and defense. That sure seems like a mitigating factor.

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1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

You mean like citing a guy's numbers from 5 years ago in 62 innings as a rookie?

Quite simply, if FIP is supposed to be predictive of future performance, then you should not find a consistent trend of FIP being lower than ERA for a pitcher every single year over 500 innings by a similar amount every year. Statistically, that is quite unlikely, unless there is something that is not being captured by simply random behavior - which is the conclusion one would draw here. Over his career, Javier Vazquez was similar - an FIP consistently better than his ERA in many seasons (not all but longer career). It is interesting to see that feature in the pitcher I'm comparing him to.

Am I citing his stats from 5 years ago? It’s funny because I could have swore that you wanted to bring up his Astros stats. If that is somehow cherry picking, then I don’t think you know its definition.

FIP is meant to take the randomness effect out of a pitcher’s stats by removing the events in the field of play. The only time when FIP is unreliable is when the pitcher consistently allows hard contact, e.g they allow a lot of doubles and triples yet FIP normalizes these as a regular hit. This wasn’t the case with Musgrove in 2017 and his expected stats based on quality of contact all backs up his FIP. I’ve also provided enough data to explain why his FIP is considerably lower than his ERA in his Pirate years (which aligns with how FIP is intended to work) I don’t want to rehash it.

Now unless you have an argument why 2017 Musgrove’s ERs are allowed aren’t random and there were underlying factors that will contribute to him keep giving up more runs than his FIP indicates going forward, I would like to hear that. Otherwise you don’t have an argument. Even then, it’s pretty silly and irrelevant since it’s 4 years ago and as many has pointed out Musgrove has made real improvement as a pitcher in 2020.

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5 hours ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

in 2017 as a starter, he had a 6 ERA and 5 FIP, a full run difference. His BABIP as a starter was .338, league average was .297, he had LOB% of 67% vs league average of 72%. His HR/FB% was 18% while league average was 13%. The first an last part, especially, is what attributed to the huge gap.

But, instead of making all these counter arguments, and since I already gave you the data that explains why his FIP was half a run lower than his ERA from 2018-20, why do you not believe his FIP is not a good indicator of his ability in 2017? I would like to hear that argument.

ok...I always relied on BR because they have. such a great sight...and their WAR says Musgrove is a journeyman.  Your argument is that if you use FG and their FIp vs ERA and fWar instead of war we can see Musgrove is undervalued.  I liked your argument so i researched FG.  Fip should be predictive...so i went back 10 years and used the years 2010-2012 to wash out randomness...and then looked for pitchers with fip half a run lower than era...to find the gems about to break out.  it did a great job with Greinke...but he was already a star with BR War of 10 onw year.  but the other guys were Luke Hochevar and Jeff Francis and our guy Gavin Floyd. Gf was 29 and never put up a 1.5 war after. This was not an exhaustive study but i sure didnt find any 28 year old journeymen that then became 3 War guys. Im sure it exists but the problem is mostly ERA=fip (which makes sense) but isnt it possible that FIP is subjective?  Arent we looking at what should have happened over what did?  I dont know...if you flip a coin a 1000 times and it comes up heads 70% of the time...arent you questioning the coin ? 

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Musgrove is blah. I’d rather just sign someone to fill out a depth role. If all he costs is some roster waste like Collins, ok. But he’d probably cost more so eff that. 

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On 12/24/2020 at 4:42 PM, thxfrthmmrs said:

This is where you rely on fWAR over bWAR for pitcher evaluation. fWAR uses FIP as their basis for pitcher's WAR while BR uses runs allowed. The former provides a better indicator than the latter.

Musgrove since becomes a full time starter 3 years ago:

2018 2.2 WAR / 19 GS

2019 3.3 WAR / 31 GS

2020 1 WAR/ 8 GS

If you go with Statcast metrics, his xERA also suggests a pretty good pitcher. All in all, I think He's a a decent #3 starter who will give you 3-3.5 WAR in a full season, will cost somewhere around $8M over the next two years.

I am not a Madrigal hater though, so I wouldn't give up Madrigal for him. Any combination of Stiever, Adolfo, Collins, Rutherford would be fine by me.

 

Good post. I live in Pittsburgh and the real concern here (and maybe a good thing for us White Sox fans) Is there is an industry belief that Musgrove has yet to even reach his peak. He started demonstrating his potential after he came off the IR last year. He was downright unhittable over his last few starts as he has really started to pound his ++ slider more and more. Musgrove has elite secondaries, what keeps him from being a TOR is he doesn't have a dominating fastball even though he can push it to 94. Joe just turned 28, so he is now entering his prime. Put a better team behind him, one that can score runs and this big guy can consume innings ala Lance Lynn. Having him in the 4 hole behind Gio, Dallas and Lance would be a big bag of riches and would assist our bullpen having 4 guys who can carry the mail.

If you can get Joe, GET HIM. That said I don't want to trade Nick and I don't think we'd have to. I think the Pirates like their MI prospect base especially with Nick Gonzalez looking like a potential star at 2B down the line. If anything the Pirates probably would be interested in a power hitting corner outfielder, catcher or even pitching. I think a package of Stiever or Matthew Thompson and Adolfo plus maybe a lotto ticket could get the Sox in the park.

Talk is that the catching prospect for Toronto, Kirk, was the headliner of a potential trade deadline deal involving Musgrove. He's a bit higher rated than Adolfo, Thompson or Stiever. I don't know what else was involved, if anything. I seriously doubt it was just Musgrove for Kirk. 

 

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3 minutes ago, kwolf68 said:

 

Good post. I live in Pittsburgh and the real concern here (and maybe a good thing for us White Sox fans) Is there is an industry belief that Musgrove has yet to even reach his peak. He started demonstrating his potential after he came off the IR last year. He was downright unhittable over his last few starts as he has really started to pound his ++ slider more and more. Musgrove has elite secondaries, what keeps him from being a TOR is he doesn't have a dominating fastball even though he can push it to 94. Joe just turned 28, so he is now entering his prime. Put a better team behind him, one that can score runs and this big guy can consume innings ala Lance Lynn. Having him in the 4 hole behind Gio, Dallas and Lance would be a big bag of riches and would assist our bullpen having 4 guys who can carry the mail.

If you can get Joe, GET HIM. That said I don't want to trade Nick and I don't think we'd have to. I think the Pirates like their MI prospect base especially with Nick Gonzalez looking like a potential star at 2B down the line. If anything the Pirates probably would be interested in a power hitting corner outfielder, catcher or even pitching. I think a package of Stiever or Matthew Thompson and Adolfo plus maybe a lotto ticket could get the Sox in the park.

Talk is that the catching prospect for Toronto, Kirk, was the headliner of a potential trade deadline deal involving Musgrove. He's a bit higher rated than Adolfo, Thompson or Stiever. I don't know what else was involved, if anything. I seriously doubt it was just Musgrove for Kirk. 

 

Good post. Thanks for the insight. I would easily give up Stiever and Adolfo for Musgrove. I know some people think that’s giving up too much, though. 

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Just now, SoxBlanco said:

Good post. Thanks for the insight. I would easily give up Stiever and Adolfo for Musgrove. I know some people think that’s giving up too much, though. 

It would be completely worth it. I'd throw in a third piece, lotto type to get a guy like Musgrove. Not every guy is established by 28, some take time, for various reasons. Musgrove is a high character guy with a highly competitive motor. He'd be another bulldog in our rotation. Yes, I like the guy, but I also think he could be a huge help. I think he's a solid, legit SP-3, but the Sox would have him slotted SP-4, which is value. 

Stiever is a really nice story, but all those reports of him throwing 97 in A advanced ball in 2019 didn't seem to pan out as he wasn't approaching that velo in his time with the Sox this past year. Thompson is still a bit of a mystery but he has interesting potential, the Bux may want him, if so then fine.  Adolfo is expendable with Cespedes coming on board. I didn't think about Zach Collins. He'd maybe be a piece the Pirates would be intersted in. Collins/Stiever or Thompson/Adolfo would be a decent package for the Pirates and would really cause very little pain to the White Sox. 

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2 minutes ago, kwolf68 said:

It would be completely worth it. I'd throw in a third piece, lotto type to get a guy like Musgrove. Not every guy is established by 28, some take time, for various reasons. Musgrove is a high character guy with a highly competitive motor. He'd be another bulldog in our rotation. Yes, I like the guy, but I also think he could be a huge help. I think he's a solid, legit SP-3, but the Sox would have him slotted SP-4, which is value. 

Stiever is a really nice story, but all those reports of him throwing 97 in A advanced ball in 2019 didn't seem to pan out as he wasn't approaching that velo in his time with the Sox this past year. Thompson is still a bit of a mystery but he has interesting potential, the Bux may want him, if so then fine.  Adolfo is expendable with Cespedes coming on board. I didn't think about Zach Collins. He'd maybe be a piece the Pirates would be intersted in. Collins/Stiever or Thompson/Adolfo would be a decent package for the Pirates and would really cause very little pain to the White Sox. 

Agreed. I’d give up either one of those packages for Musgrove, but I think I’m higher on him than most. 

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Just now, SoxBlanco said:

Agreed. I’d give up either one of those packages for Musgrove, but I think I’m higher on him than most. 

Yea you and I both are it seems. I am just not sure about Cease right now. Love the arm and yes he needs time with new pitching coach, but my fear is he'll have to parse his arsenal down to two pitches and move to the pen. That's what many had projected of him a while ago. Which is a shame, because he does keep his velocity after 100 pitches so he has the physical tools to be a quality SP who can throw innings. But his command has gone from below average to dreadful, though 2020 was an outlier for many players and I am certainly not opposed to rolling with him this year given his ceiling. 

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12 minutes ago, kwolf68 said:

It would be completely worth it. I'd throw in a third piece, lotto type to get a guy like Musgrove. Not every guy is established by 28, some take time, for various reasons. Musgrove is a high character guy with a highly competitive motor. He'd be another bulldog in our rotation. Yes, I like the guy, but I also think he could be a huge help. I think he's a solid, legit SP-3, but the Sox would have him slotted SP-4, which is value. 

Stiever is a really nice story, but all those reports of him throwing 97 in A advanced ball in 2019 didn't seem to pan out as he wasn't approaching that velo in his time with the Sox this past year. Thompson is still a bit of a mystery but he has interesting potential, the Bux may want him, if so then fine.  Adolfo is expendable with Cespedes coming on board. I didn't think about Zach Collins. He'd maybe be a piece the Pirates would be intersted in. Collins/Stiever or Thompson/Adolfo would be a decent package for the Pirates and would really cause very little pain to the White Sox. 

I would be fine with Stiever ++..  While avoiding trading one of the HS pitchers at all in the deal.  It would have to be headlined by Stiever or Collins for me.  Otherwise I'd pass.  I admitedly am not a huge Musgrove fan. I wonder if the Dylan Bundy trade would be a good comparrison?

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26 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I would be fine with Stiever ++..  While avoiding trading one of the HS pitchers at all in the deal.  It would have to be headlined by Stiever or Collins for me.  Otherwise I'd pass.  I admitedly am not a huge Musgrove fan. I wonder if the Dylan Bundy trade would be a good comparrison?

 

Certainly would not be a bad comparison. Bundy was a more ballyhooed prospect (Joe was still a very good prospect), but arm injury destroyed his velocity. He routinely sits 90 on the fastball. He got a change of scenery and really took off with LAA. The Orioles got 4 prospects, but none really all that great to be honest. The highest ranked one is Kyle Braddish and he's not even Top 20 in the Orioles system. Looked like a bunch of young spare parts for a capable SP. So it appears what I think the Sox should offer is a much better package than the Bundy deal. Some would suggest a similar package of low minors lotto tickets should get Musgrove because of the return Baltimore got for Bundy. I don't agree. That was a crap return and I argue isn't a good comp. Bundy should have gotten at least one top 10 system prospect. None of those guys were even close. 

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37 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Good post. Thanks for the insight. I would easily give up Stiever and Adolfo for Musgrove. I know some people think that’s giving up too much, though. 

I’m not sure what Adolfo’s option situation is, but he’s getting dangerously close to being Basabe’d and probably should be moved if a team places a reasonably high value on him. However, with Dunning gone I’m a little hesitant to give Stiever up as he’s the only starter we have in the minors with any semblance of upside who might be able to help in the next couple years until the Kelley, Thompson, Dalquist, & Vera group is ready.  All that being said, I think the Pirates would be far more interested in pieces a little farther away since they won’t be contending anytime soon.

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