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Joe Musgrove Thread

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1 hour ago, kwolf68 said:

 

Good post. I live in Pittsburgh and the real concern here (and maybe a good thing for us White Sox fans) Is there is an industry belief that Musgrove has yet to even reach his peak. He started demonstrating his potential after he came off the IR last year. He was downright unhittable over his last few starts as he has really started to pound his ++ slider more and more. Musgrove has elite secondaries, what keeps him from being a TOR is he doesn't have a dominating fastball even though he can push it to 94. Joe just turned 28, so he is now entering his prime. Put a better team behind him, one that can score runs and this big guy can consume innings ala Lance Lynn. Having him in the 4 hole behind Gio, Dallas and Lance would be a big bag of riches and would assist our bullpen having 4 guys who can carry the mail.

If you can get Joe, GET HIM. That said I don't want to trade Nick and I don't think we'd have to. I think the Pirates like their MI prospect base especially with Nick Gonzalez looking like a potential star at 2B down the line. If anything the Pirates probably would be interested in a power hitting corner outfielder, catcher or even pitching. I think a package of Stiever or Matthew Thompson and Adolfo plus maybe a lotto ticket could get the Sox in the park.

Talk is that the catching prospect for Toronto, Kirk, was the headliner of a potential trade deadline deal involving Musgrove. He's a bit higher rated than Adolfo, Thompson or Stiever. I don't know what else was involved, if anything. I seriously doubt it was just Musgrove for Kirk. 

 

Great stuff and thanks for sharing!

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50 minutes ago, kwolf68 said:

It would be completely worth it. I'd throw in a third piece, lotto type to get a guy like Musgrove. Not every guy is established by 28, some take time, for various reasons. Musgrove is a high character guy with a highly competitive motor. He'd be another bulldog in our rotation. Yes, I like the guy, but I also think he could be a huge help. I think he's a solid, legit SP-3, but the Sox would have him slotted SP-4, which is value. 

Stiever is a really nice story, but all those reports of him throwing 97 in A advanced ball in 2019 didn't seem to pan out as he wasn't approaching that velo in his time with the Sox this past year. Thompson is still a bit of a mystery but he has interesting potential, the Bux may want him, if so then fine.  Adolfo is expendable with Cespedes coming on board. I didn't think about Zach Collins. He'd maybe be a piece the Pirates would be intersted in. Collins/Stiever or Thompson/Adolfo would be a decent package for the Pirates and would really cause very little pain to the White Sox. 

Regarding Stiever, I think we generally shouldn’t overreact to how guys looked in the 2020 season,  especially on the bad side of things.  Dude had a ton of helium heading into 2020 and it’s very possible the bizarreness this past year impacted his stuff.  IMO, plenty of guys didn’t look right this past year, Lopez being one of them.  Obviously we should still be open to dealing him, but I don’t think his brief major league appearances did much to help his value and I’d rather give him a chance to rebound than assume the kid with underwhelming stuff we saw this year is here to stay and potentially sell low on him.

Also, I actually think the Pirates would prefer a younger kid like Thompson anyways.  The Pirates already targeted a super young arm as the centerpiece of the Bell trade and I could see the same thing happening with Musgrove.  Just fits their timeline better.  A guy like Adolfo could be of interest of them as a secondary piece, but I do think they’d also want one of Beard, Bailey, Bush, Rodriguez, Ramos, or Gladney.  I’ll keep asking it, but are we better off doing Thompson + Adolfo + Beard for Musgrove or keeping the assets and just signing Richards?  If money is truly tight, the former might allow you sign Hendriks and add a left-handed bat in the La Stella or Schwarber mold.  Still not sure how I feel about giving up talent when there are decent starters who just cost money, but I hadn’t thought of that last consideration until now.

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I had done more research on Musgrove to figure out what else could be driving the sizable differences between his ERA and FIP (as Fangraphs calls it E-F). As I noted the bad D of the Pirates and inconsistent BP play has a lot to do with it, but one thing I have overlooked is his pitching with men on base. This is what's keep his LOB% down, in other words more men scored against him when they get on base (again, some of this could be attributed back to the Pirates BP, but a lot of it is on him also). For his career, his overall OPS against is .740. However with men on base, it is .790, which is a pretty big difference compared to other pitchers. I sampled some of the pitchers with elite LOB%, and for their career, their overall OPS and OPS with men on base are about the same (granted some of these guys have the added luxury of pitching in front of elite BPs, e.g. Clevinger, Kershaw, Ryu), in fact, a guy like Verlander actually shifts to another gear with men on base the last 5 years, he's absolutely lights out. Even for a mid rotation starter, their difference is anywhere from marginal to .30 ish.

Now I haven't seen Musgrove pitch more than a start or two myself, I don't know how well he could pitch from the stretch, but that really seems to be inflating his ERA compared to his FIP the last few years. 2020 is actually a year he posted a strong LOB% (14% increase from 2019). However since 2020 stats are SSS, there isn't a large enough sample of ABs with men on base to truly tell if Musgrove has made real improvements pitching from the stretch, at least not without seeing him pitch.

I still believe he's an improved pitcher from 2019 based on his much improved secondary pitches, but I would say his ability to pitch from the stretch will be the determining factor between him being a legitimate #3 or even #2, or just a #4 starter with a shiny FIP and fWAR.

Edited by thxfrthmmrs
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1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Regarding Stiever, I think we generally shouldn’t overreact to how guys looked in the 2020 season,  especially on the bad side of things.  Dude had a ton of helium heading into 2020 and it’s very possible the bizarreness this past year impacted his stuff.  IMO, plenty of guys didn’t look right this past year, Lopez being one of them.  Obviously we should still be open to dealing him, but I don’t think his brief major league appearances did much to help his value and I’d rather give him a chance to rebound than assume the kid with underwhelming stuff we saw this year is here to stay and potentially sell low on him.

Also, I actually think the Pirates would prefer a younger kid like Thompson anyways.  The Pirates already targeted a super young arm as the centerpiece of the Bell trade and I could see the same thing happening with Musgrove.  Just fits their timeline better.  A guy like Adolfo could be of interest of them as a secondary piece, but I do think they’d also want one of Beard, Bailey, Bush, Rodriguez, Ramos, or Gladney.  I’ll keep asking it, but are we better off doing Thompson + Adolfo + Beard for Musgrove or keeping the assets and just signing Richards?  If money is truly tight, the former might allow you sign Hendriks and add a left-handed bat in the La Stella or Schwarber mold.  Still not sure how I feel about giving up talent when there are decent starters who just cost money, but I hadn’t thought of that last consideration until now.

 

Certainly a good point on Stiever, I agree, 2020 has to be taken with a grain of salt on some level.

I think Musgrove is better than Richards. Richards lost his starting role in San Diego last year. For a cheap, depth option as potential protection against Cease/Rey failing off I wouldn't oppose it even still. 

And to answer your question about if it's better to keep those 3 players instead of getting Musgrove in my view no it's better to move them if we can get a sturdy entering his prime SP for them. There is a really high probability only 1 of those guys will actually make it given the fact most prospects don't make it. I do like Thompson and I like Stiever, but the Sox can strike now and may need another arm to do it. So I'd move any of them. The Sox are still trading from the "depth" of the system and the top talent remains. They still have Crochett and Kelley so it won't be like the farm system will be empty. 

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9 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Regarding Stiever, I think we generally shouldn’t overreact to how guys looked in the 2020 season,  especially on the bad side of things.  Dude had a ton of helium heading into 2020 and it’s very possible the bizarreness this past year impacted his stuff.  IMO, plenty of guys didn’t look right this past year, Lopez being one of them.  Obviously we should still be open to dealing him, but I don’t think his brief major league appearances did much to help his value and I’d rather give him a chance to rebound than assume the kid with underwhelming stuff we saw this year is here to stay and potentially sell low on him.

Also, I actually think the Pirates would prefer a younger kid like Thompson anyways.  The Pirates already targeted a super young arm as the centerpiece of the Bell trade and I could see the same thing happening with Musgrove.  Just fits their timeline better.  A guy like Adolfo could be of interest of them as a secondary piece, but I do think they’d also want one of Beard, Bailey, Bush, Rodriguez, Ramos, or Gladney.  I’ll keep asking it, but are we better off doing Thompson + Adolfo + Beard for Musgrove or keeping the assets and just signing Richards?  If money is truly tight, the former might allow you sign Hendriks and add a left-handed bat in the La Stella or Schwarber mold.  Still not sure how I feel about giving up talent when there are decent starters who just cost money, but I hadn’t thought of that last consideration until now.

I think that package of Thompson, Adolfo, Beard is pretty fair for both teams. I like that trade, and I’d be willing to give that up for Musgrove. 

I wouldn’t hate signing Richards or Quintana, but I think Musgrove is a notch above those guys. 

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A good case for someone who is less effective from the stretch is Giolito. His normal delivery is slow so he speeds up his delivery from the stretch, which has led to really bad results in 2018 (.794 OPS against overall vs. .861 with men on), that has lead to a 63% LOB rate, and a significantly higher ERA than FIP. He corrected the issue in 2019, pitching much better from stretch, which led to an elite 78% rate. As a result, his ERA and FIP were virtually the same in 2019. But then he struggled again in 2020, leading to another season with higher ERA than FIP.

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34 minutes ago, kwolf68 said:

 

Certainly a good point on Stiever, I agree, 2020 has to be taken with a grain of salt on some level.

I think Musgrove is better than Richards. Richards lost his starting role in San Diego last year. For a cheap, depth option as potential protection against Cease/Rey failing off I wouldn't oppose it even still. 

And to answer your question about if it's better to keep those 3 players instead of getting Musgrove in my view no it's better to move them if we can get a sturdy entering his prime SP for them. There is a really high probability only 1 of those guys will actually make it given the fact most prospects don't make it. I do like Thompson and I like Stiever, but the Sox can strike now and may need another arm to do it. So I'd move any of them. The Sox are still trading from the "depth" of the system and the top talent remains. They still have Crochett and Kelley so it won't be like the farm system will be empty. 

The argument shouldn't be "should the White Sox trade from organizational depth" it should be when and for whom.  I know I'm a broken record but Musgrove

Sept 26th, 2020 his greatest game ever by game score against Indians...who had already clinched a playoff spot, bottom 5 offense and Pirates got 8 runs in first 4.  

Sept 20th, 2020--his second greatest game score of his career against Cards...Sunday afternoon game after Saturday night game and the Cards were playing their TENTH road game in 7 days (three doubleheaders that week).

 Previous 32 starts 5.28 ERA.   You really want to throw THREE assets including a top 6 prospect for that????   

Sign Q for money only....let the young players improve their value in minors until trade deadline...see how our young major league pitchers are developing and then trade them for someone actually good from a team that is bad or is imploding...Castillo from the Reds, Bieber from the Indians, deGroom from the Mets or like that.     

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2 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

The argument shouldn't be "should the White Sox trade from organizational depth" it should be when and for whom.  I know I'm a broken record but Musgrove

Sept 26th, 2020 his greatest game ever by game score against Indians...who had already clinched a playoff spot, bottom 5 offense and Pirates got 8 runs in first 4.  

Sept 20th, 2020--his second greatest game score of his career against Cards...Sunday afternoon game after Saturday night game and the Cards were playing their TENTH road game in 7 days (three doubleheaders that week).

 Previous 32 starts 5.28 ERA.   You really want to throw THREE assets including a top 6 prospect for that????   

Sign Q for money only....let the young players improve their value in minors until trade deadline...see how our young major league pitchers are developing and then trade them for someone actually good from a team that is bad or is imploding...Castillo from the Reds, Bieber from the Indians, deGroom from the Mets or like that.     

Yes

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59 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

I think that package of Thompson, Adolfo, Beard is pretty fair for both teams. I like that trade, and I’d be willing to give that up for Musgrove. 

I wouldn’t hate signing Richards or Quintana, but I think Musgrove is a notch above those guys. 

I appreciate your thoughtful explanations on FIP and your defense of Musgrove...though fWAR is the only defense of him being good.  And I'm not being snarky...you forced me to study this stuff and it's interesting.  .  Still maybe it just explains why he is bad and not why he is going to be good.  I went back and did another three year window 2007-2010 to try to find that guy that FIP should uncover...a guy from a bad fielding team, bad bullpen, bad luck, whatever...and honestly you get in a time machine with your FIP stuff and you just don't find a guy that's 28 with a FIP half a run better than his ERA that then goes on to be a 3 WAR guy.  I'm sure it has happened and it could happen with Musgrove but it seems more likely that we make the trade, throw in a lottery ticket and he turns out to be the best player in baseball.   

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Looking at some of Keuchel’s Statcast data and other advanced metrics, it’s very clear the dude is going to regress hard next year.  He should still be a solid starter and will likely outperform what projection systems expect out of him given the strength of our infield defense, but a sub 3.00 ERA is incredibly unlikely to happen next year.

As such, I think I’ve convinced myself we need to add Musgrove to the mix.  I’m still very high on Cease and am hopeful that with some grip / mechanical changes he can reduce the cutting effect of his 4 seamer and improve his command of the pitch, which will be critical for him to ever make the leap to TOR starter.  However, until that actually happens he can’t be relied on to be more than a #5 type.  With Kopech on a strict innings limit and not having pitched in two years, he can’t be counted on to be anything more than a partial back-end contributor next year.  Given the fact these two arms are still works in process, adding a reliable #4 starter is an absolute must for us.  And if we can add one who has #3 starter upside like Musgrove, all the better as it may help prevent against worse than expected fall-off from Dallas next year.

Joe Musgrove had a very promising 2020 season, finishing with a xwOBA in the 81th percentile and pitching at what was effectively a 4 fWAR pace.  Looking at his Statcast data, two things stand out as potential drivers for what was a YoY gain in performance.  First & foremost, he started using his breaking balls (slider & curve) much more at the expense of his 4 seamer & cutter, which is what most damage against him was on.  In 2018 he used his curve & slider a combined ~21%, in 2019 it was a combined ~32%, and finally in 2020 it was a combined ~44%.  More interesting, he experienced sizable spikes in the spin rates on both of these pitches last year, which just so happens to correspond with the whiff rates on these pitches from sitting around 40% in 2019 to 50%+ in 2020.  In aggregate, these changes led to a whiff rate of 33% in 2020, which reflects an 8.3 point improvement vs. 2019.  That’s absolute insanity and makes him a completely different pitcher if sustainable.

Now, therein lies the crux of the problem.  Did Musgrove & the Pirates push for changes to his pitch usage and other things that could have improved the spin rates on his breaking balls?  I obviously have no idea and given this is an eight game sample we’re looking at, it’s not a slam dunk that this version of Musgrove is sustainable over a 32 start season.  That being said, for the right price, I’m willing to find out.  If the Pirates are willing to accept a package along the lines of Thompson, Adolfo, & Beard (for all I know that may be way too light) I think I’d go ahead and pull the trigger.  At worst he should be a solid #4 type, but the potential is there for him to leap frog Keuchel and become our #3 starter, which come October could be the difference between winning and losing a playoff series.

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The question is what are the alternatives? 

With giolito, lynn, keuchel and cease plus kopech on an innings limit the sox need at least one starter and might need another one in case of injury.

So the options are free agents bauer, paxton, quintana and tanaka and on the trade market musgrove, maybe someone from the cubs (hendricks?) And who else is there?

 

Edited by Dominikk85

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26 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Looking at some of Keuchel’s Statcast data and other advanced metrics, it’s very clear the dude is going to regress hard next year.  He should still be a solid starter and will likely outperform what projection systems expect out of him given the strength of our infield defense, but a sub 3.00 ERA is incredibly unlikely to happen next year.

As such, I think I’ve convinced myself we need to add Musgrove to the mix.  I’m still very high on Cease and am hopeful that with some grip / mechanical changes he can reduce the cutting effect of his 4 seamer and improve his command of the pitch, which will be critical for him to ever make the leap to TOR starter.  However, until that actually happens he can’t be relied on to be more than a #5 type.  With Kopech on a strict innings limit and not having pitched in two years, he can’t be counted on to be anything more than a partial back-end contributor next year.  Given the fact these two arms are still works in process, adding a reliable #4 starter is an absolute must for us.  And if we can add one who has #3 starter upside like Musgrove, all the better as it may help prevent against worse than expected fall-off from Dallas next year.

Joe Musgrove had a very promising 2020 season, finishing with a xwOBA in the 81th percentile and pitching at what was effectively a 4 fWAR pace.  Looking at his Statcast data, two things stand out as potential drivers for what was a YoY gain in performance.  First & foremost, he started using his breaking balls (slider & curve) much more at the expense of his 4 seamer & cutter, which is what most damage against him was on.  In 2018 he used his curve & slider a combined ~21%, in 2019 it was a combined ~32%, and finally in 2020 it was a combined ~44%.  More interesting, he experienced sizable spikes in the spin rates on both of these pitches last year, which just so happens to correspond with the whiff rates on these pitches from sitting around 40% in 2019 to 50%+ in 2020.  In aggregate, these changes led to a whiff rate of 33% in 2020, which reflects an 8.3 point improvement vs. 2019.  That’s absolute insanity and makes him a completely different pitcher if sustainable.

Now, therein lies the crux of the problem.  Did Musgrove & the Pirates push for changes to his pitch usage and other things that could have improved the spin rates on his breaking balls?  I obviously have no idea and given this is an eight game sample we’re looking at, it’s not a slam dunk that this version of Musgrove is sustainable over a 32 start season.  That being said, for the right price, I’m willing to find out.  If the Pirates are willing to accept a package along the lines of Thompson, Adolfo, & Beard (for all I know that may be way too light) I think I’d go ahead and pull the trigger.  At worst he should be a solid #4 type, but the potential is there for him to leap frog Keuchel and become our #3 starter, which come October could be the difference between winning and losing a playoff series.

Fantastic post. Couldn’t agree more. With Musgrove on board, we would have a nice rotation of Giolito, Lynn, Musgrove, Keuchel, and Cease/Kopech. Keuchel in the 4 slot will be great, and we’d have a ton of upside in the 5 slot. 

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32 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

 

 

32 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

 

Joe Musgrove had a very promising 2020 season, finishing with a xwOBA in the 81th percentile and pitching at what was effectively a 4 fWAR pace.  Looking at his Statcast data, two things stand out as potential drivers for what was a YoY gain in performance.  First & foremost, he started using his breaking balls (slider & curve) much more at the expense of his 4 seamer & cutter, which is what most damage against him was on.  In 2018 he used his curve & slider a combined ~21%, in 2019 it was a combined ~32%, and finally in 2020 it was a combined ~44%.  More interesting, he experienced sizable spikes in the spin rates on both of these pitches last year, which just so happens to correspond with the whiff rates on these pitches from sitting around 40% in 2019 to 50%+ in 2020.  In aggregate, these changes led to a whiff rate of 33% in 2020, which reflects an 8.3 point improvement vs. 2019.  That’s absolute insanity and makes him a completely different pitcher if sustainable.

Now, therein lies the crux of the problem.  Did Musgrove & the Pirates push for changes to his pitch usage and other things that could have improved the spin rates on his breaking balls?  I obviously have no idea and given this is an eight game sample we’re looking at, it’s not a slam dunk that this version of Musgrove is sustainable over a 32 start season.  That being said, for the right price, I’m willing to find out.  If the Pirates are willing to accept a package along the lines of Thompson, Adolfo, & Beard (for all I know that may be way too light) I think I’d go ahead and pull the trigger.  At worst he should be a solid #4 type, but the potential is there for him to leap frog Keuchel and become our #3 starter, which come October could be the difference between winning and losing a playoff series.

His ERA on September 19th of his "very promising season" was 5.74...he then pitched against an exhausted St Louis in a day game following a night game, their 10th road game in 7 days...and then the anemic Cleveland offense on the second last day of the season after they had clinched a playoff spot and fallen behind by 8 runs by the 4th.   Isn't it just possible that we are throwing those two outlier games into a SSS and seeing rising greatness when it is just a mirage?  It's pretty easy to get a pitcher to give up 5.5 runs a game without giving up any assets.    

Edited by michelangelosmonkey
double quoted

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14 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

 

His ERA on September 19th of his "very promising season" was 5.74...he then pitched against an exhausted St Louis in a day game following a night game, their 10th road game in 7 days...and then the anemic Cleveland offense on the second last day of the season after they had clinched a playoff spot and fallen behind by 8 runs by the 4th.   Isn't it just possible that we are throwing those two outlier games into a SSS and seeing rising greatness when it is just a mirage?  It's pretty easy to get a pitcher to give up 5.5 runs a game without giving up any assets.    

5.5 runs would bei by far the worst pitcher in Baseball.

So who would You get then?

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Just now, Dominikk85 said:

5.5 runs would bei by far the worst pitcher in Baseball.

So who would You get then?

I like Q because of his history with us, his being a lefty, even when he's not been very good the last three years he was basically as good as Musgrove 2018-20(by WAR not fWAR which I'm still a bit dubious of) and he will only cost money...plus they only need a two year window before I think they will have a number of these young guys blossom.  I don't want Musgrove blocking Cease, Crochet, Kopech development.    I still think they might get Bauer because I fully believe they will drop $150-200 mill on a contract in the next 12 months...I'm just not positive Bauer is the guy they want to do it for.  It's SO early in their window and they have proven to be willing to spend top 5 payroll in the 00's, 90's and 80's if the team is good.   The team is good...management has said they will spend...but they are still shopping.    

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50 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

 

His ERA on September 19th of his "very promising season" was 5.74...he then pitched against an exhausted St Louis in a day game following a night game, their 10th road game in 7 days...and then the anemic Cleveland offense on the second last day of the season after they had clinched a playoff spot and fallen behind by 8 runs by the 4th.   Isn't it just possible that we are throwing those two outlier games into a SSS and seeing rising greatness when it is just a mirage?  It's pretty easy to get a pitcher to give up 5.5 runs a game without giving up any assets.    

I don’t get why you are only focused on ERA and ignoring every other metric, but his xFIP would have been 3.89 even if you exclude those last two starts.  But real talk, why are we only excluding the good starts and not the three bad ones to open the season where he was clearly the victim to flukey home-run and strand rates?  There is a reason his ERA sucked at the point in time you are referring to and nothing about that ERA is predictive about expected performance.  The real question is can he maintain a 44% usage rate of his breaking balls and a +50% whiff rate on those pitches over the course of a full season.  If he can, he will be an incredibly successful pitcher going forward and would a great addition to our rotation.

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54 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

 

His ERA on September 19th of his "very promising season" was 5.74...he then pitched against an exhausted St Louis in a day game following a night game, their 10th road game in 7 days...and then the anemic Cleveland offense on the second last day of the season after they had clinched a playoff spot and fallen behind by 8 runs by the 4th.   Isn't it just possible that we are throwing those two outlier games into a SSS and seeing rising greatness when it is just a mirage?  It's pretty easy to get a pitcher to give up 5.5 runs a game without giving up any assets.    

As you’ve gone through his game log so often did you ever think “huh maybe that awful game he had that drove his ERA up so high right before he went on the DL for a month could be injury related?” or naw

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2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I don’t get why you are only focused on ERA and ignoring every other metric, but his xFIP would have been 3.89 even if you exclude those last two starts.  But real talk, why are we only excluding the good starts and not the three bad ones to open the season where he was clearly the victim to flukey home-run and strand rates?  There is a reason his ERA sucked at the point in time you are referring to and nothing about that ERA is predictive about expected performance.  The real question is can he maintain a 44% usage rate of his breaking balls and a +50% whiff rate on those pitches over the course of a full season.  If he can, he will be an incredibly successful pitcher going forward and would a great addition to our rotation.

I don't get why you are ignoring his previous 32 starts before those last two fluky starts in 2020.   ERA of 5.28 in 32 starts...a full season of Reylo.   ERA is what actually happened.  xFIP is what some people think may have happened if what happened didn't happen...and as I wrote...FIP should be predictive...you should be able to get in your time machine and go back and find someone on a bad team that has a FIP 1/2 a run lower than his ERA and then see how that flower blossomed...and I went over two different three year periods from 10 and 13 years ago (arbitrarily) and basically found no one.  I wouldn't mind taking a flier on someone like that for nothing...but trading assets for that????   People on here are willing to trade Madrigal ++ for him.  

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6 minutes ago, bmags said:

As you’ve gone through his game log so often did you ever think “huh maybe that awful game he had that drove his ERA up so high right before he went on the DL for a month could be injury related?” or naw

He didn't have one AWEFUL game that drove down his stats.  That was Lance Lynn.  Again...his WAR (baseball reference) show's him for his whole career as a 1 WAR kind of a guy.  When people started throwing around his fWAR and all sorts of reasons why he is a hidden gem...I looked deeper.  Not sure why you are slamming me...if he had a long history of being really good and then had a down period because of arm troubles and I ignored that well then I'm a dope.   But why is what I'm saying not at least interesting?   I'm not saying it's conclusive...spin rates, and xfip and usage rates and whatever all sounds very sciency...but why have the results been so mediocre.  Especially when the two GREAT performances came from weird situations.  If you told me the New Orleans Saints pass defense was amazing and used as a data point their game against the Broncos where they held them to 1 completion and 13 yards of total passing offense...without the context that Denver was missing their top 4 quarterbacks because of COVID I would say the stats are a bit tainted.  I am fairly certain no team in 50 years has played 10 road games in 7 days.  Danny Duffy and his 5 ERA also shut out the Indians.    

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9 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

He didn't have one AWEFUL game that drove down his stats.  That was Lance Lynn.  Again...his WAR (baseball reference) show's him for his whole career as a 1 WAR kind of a guy.  When people started throwing around his fWAR and all sorts of reasons why he is a hidden gem...I looked deeper.  Not sure why you are slamming me...if he had a long history of being really good and then had a down period because of arm troubles and I ignored that well then I'm a dope.   But why is what I'm saying not at least interesting?   I'm not saying it's conclusive...spin rates, and xfip and usage rates and whatever all sounds very sciency...but why have the results been so mediocre.  Especially when the two GREAT performances came from weird situations.  If you told me the New Orleans Saints pass defense was amazing and used as a data point their game against the Broncos where they held them to 1 completion and 13 yards of total passing offense...without the context that Denver was missing their top 4 quarterbacks because of COVID I would say the stats are a bit tainted.  I am fairly certain no team in 50 years has played 10 road games in 7 days.  Danny Duffy and his 5 ERA also shut out the Indians.    

He absolutely did have one awful game in 2020. Am I allowed to remove it? That’s how this works right?

If we remove his game right before he went on the DL, he’d have a 2.99 ERA on the season. If you also remove his good starts for your logic his ERA would be a full run lower at 4.6.

He was also changing how he was pitching which led to those final two starts and began pitching the Pittsburgh out of him. Stopped being so reliant on his fastballs and started learning how to spin his offspeed pitches and now has a dominant curve and slider and a great sinking change up, All have more movement than 2018, and weirdly his k rate explodes.

Thats stuff that points to the pitcher you are going to get, but I guess we need to dig deeper.

Oh weird a bunch of scouts that didn’t dig deep corroborating:

https://fansided.com/2021/01/01/chicago-cubs-yu-darvish-trade-details/

“You’re not acquiring Musgrove to be Gerrit Cole. That’s not him,” one high-ranking National League official said. “You’re acquiring him because he is a lot better than he’s shown in Pittsburgh.”

In 2020, Musgrove increased the usage and spin rates of his slider and curveball. He finished the season with 13 shutout innings against the Cardinals and Indians, and some evaluators who have studied him closely believe it’s a sign of what’s to come.

Considering he is under control at a reasonable rate for the next two seasons and still in the prime of his career, Musgrove is quite possibly the most attractive starting pitcher remaining on the trade market.

++++
 

Did they not think to look at his game logs?

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28 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I don't get why you are ignoring his previous 32 starts before those last two fluky starts in 2020.   ERA of 5.28 in 32 starts...a full season of Reylo.   ERA is what actually happened.  xFIP is what some people think may have happened if what happened didn't happen...and as I wrote...FIP should be predictive...you should be able to get in your time machine and go back and find someone on a bad team that has a FIP 1/2 a run lower than his ERA and then see how that flower blossomed...and I went over two different three year periods from 10 and 13 years ago (arbitrarily) and basically found no one.  I wouldn't mind taking a flier on someone like that for nothing...but trading assets for that????   People on here are willing to trade Madrigal ++ for him.  

I’m ignoring them because as I stated in my post, his pitch usage changed substantially and the spin rates on his two breaking balls increased significantly last year, reflecting a fundamentally different, more effective pitcher.  So I don’t really care what his results were when he was throwing way more 4 seamers & cutters, because if I were the GM and acquiring him I’m expecting the 2020 version of Musgrove to be here to stay.  And I don’t care about his ERA that much either, since it can be impacted by all sorts of factors such as poor defense and flukey bullpen strand rates.

Again, my question is whether or not those changes are substainable or simply result of a random eight game sample size.  If my pitching coaches and pro scouts believe that the 2020 version of Musgrove is for real, then I’m totally fine giving up a couple prospects that are further out or have option issues (like Adolfo) for a guy who might be a damn good #3 starter and is controllable for another two seasons for dirt cheap.  If not, then I would just sign a guy like Richards to fill the #4 spot.  But in this day & age, what a pitcher has been in the past isn’t the end all be all if he’s demonstrated a path towards success via changes to or improvements in his pitch repertoire & mix as things can suddenly click and transform said pitcher into something fundamentally better.

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I think the bidding for Musgrove is going to get out of our range pretty quick. Everyone wants a high upside cost controlled young SP for a couple years, especially with the financial uncertainty of the pandemic. 

I think if the Angels offer Marsh + it would take something very unwise to win that bidding war.

I dont want to deplete the Kelley, Dahlquist, Thompson (I'm assuming Crochet is untouchable as is Kopech)  future wave of possible SPs, esp if Giolito doesn't want to extend up front. We need a steady stream of young controllable SPs after Part I of the window (i.e. JR and TLR's last stand). If JR isnt gonna pay expensive long term deals for SP i doubt his son will either. 

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9 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I think the bidding for Musgrove is going to get out of our range pretty quick. Everyone wants a high upside cost controlled young SP for a couple years, especially with the financial uncertainty of the pandemic. 

I think if the Angels offer Marsh + it would take something very unwise to win that bidding war.

I dont want to deplete the Kelley, Dahlquist, Thompson (I'm assuming Crochet is untouchable as is Kopech)  future wave of possible SPs, esp if Giolito doesn't want to extend up front. We need a steady stream of young controllable SPs after Part I of the window (i.e. JR and TLR's last stand). If JR isnt gonna pay expensive long term deals for SP i doubt his son will either. 

I would be fine with trading Thompson. He’s talented but a lot has to go right for him to be a starter.

Musgrove may get really competitive but I’d rather Sox not assume that.

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18 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I think the bidding for Musgrove is going to get out of our range pretty quick. Everyone wants a high upside cost controlled young SP for a couple years, especially with the financial uncertainty of the pandemic. 

I think if the Angels offer Marsh + it would take something very unwise to win that bidding war.

I dont want to deplete the Kelley, Dahlquist, Thompson (I'm assuming Crochet is untouchable as is Kopech)  future wave of possible SPs, esp if Giolito doesn't want to extend up front. We need a steady stream of young controllable SPs after Part I of the window (i.e. JR and TLR's last stand). If JR isnt gonna pay expensive long term deals for SP i doubt his son will either. 

I wouldn’t overpay for Musgrove and I do think that someone will ultimately be willing to give up more than we would, but it’s at least worth exploring IMO.

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2 hours ago, bmags said:

He absolutely did have one awful game in 2020. Am I allowed to remove it? That’s how this works right?

If we remove his game right before he went on the DL, he’d have a 2.99 ERA on the season. If you also remove his good starts for your logic his ERA would be a full run lower at 4.6.

He was also changing how he was pitching which led to those final two starts and began pitching the Pittsburgh out of him. Stopped being so reliant on his fastballs and started learning how to spin his offspeed pitches and now has a dominant curve and slider and a great sinking change up, All have more movement than 2018, and weirdly his k rate explodes.

Thats stuff that points to the pitcher you are going to get, but I guess we need to dig deeper.

Oh weird a bunch of scouts that didn’t dig deep corroborating:

https://fansided.com/2021/01/01/chicago-cubs-yu-darvish-trade-details/

“You’re not acquiring Musgrove to be Gerrit Cole. That’s not him,” one high-ranking National League official said. “You’re acquiring him because he is a lot better than he’s shown in Pittsburgh.”

In 2020, Musgrove increased the usage and spin rates of his slider and curveball. He finished the season with 13 shutout innings against the Cardinals and Indians, and some evaluators who have studied him closely believe it’s a sign of what’s to come.

Considering he is under control at a reasonable rate for the next two seasons and still in the prime of his career, Musgrove is quite possibly the most attractive starting pitcher remaining on the trade market.

++++
 

Did they not think to look at his game logs?

Wow thats pretty hostile.  I wasnt being dense about his "bad" start..he had a total of 0 quality starts in 2020 before the wonder two.  He had two starts, in September, after his injury,  where he gave up 2 runs in 3 innings and 4 runs in 5 innings.  I thought those were bad two...as were several other ugly 2020 starts....thats how you end up with an era near 6 in mid September.   As for the corraborating scouts where you imply I'm an idiot..you gave one un-named high ranking NL "official".   Pirates VP of sales is a NL official.  Anyway Im tired of this.  Two inarguable facts-- JM was amazing his last two starts and he was terrible the previous 32. peace

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