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Sleepy Harold

Blake Snell and Yu Darvish traded to San Diego

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6 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

They may not have had the young position players, but they do have young pitching in the form of Thompson and Kelley.

Irrelevant but i wabted to wish u all my fellow sox fans hapoy bew year with heslth to everyone of u and your families, unfortunately 2020 closes for me bad csuse today new years rve i diagnosed with lung cancer,hapoy new year!!!!

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6 minutes ago, bear_brian said:

They are at $ 118M now. IF they add Hendriks (13M0) Quintana (10M) and La Stella (7M), they hit slightly under $150M. Not saying any of those moves will turn out, just spitballing based on the hamburger guy's conjecture.

Are they actually that high?  I only get to ~$109M ignoring signing bonuses and leaving three roster spots open for outside additions.  If my numbers are correct, that means we’d be ~$31M away from a $140M payroll figure, which is probably what it would cost to add the three guys you mentioned.  I’m still fairly confident we spend on a closer and a #4 starter, but just not sure if Jerry will allow us to splurge on that bat.  I see that being a late January or early February addition when someone is desperate for a job and is willing to take something like 1/$5M from us.

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23 minutes ago, bear_brian said:

They are at $ 118M now. IF they add Hendriks (13M0) Quintana (10M) and La Stella (7M), they hit slightly under $150M. Not saying any of those moves will turn out, just spitballing based on the hamburger guy's conjecture.

I think Q is gonna cost more than 10m so it seems they are moving on to other options at SP4. 

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9 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Gimme Schwarber over LaStella at the same price.. Okay, maybe not. IDK

Both are affordable. LaStella will be needed since Madrigal might not be healthy to start the year and I get a feeling TLR might like LA Stella better anyway. He provides Moncada long hauler COVID insurance at 3b, too. Give him 1/8m.

We can get Schwarber for 1/5-6m. Play musical chairs with him and Eloy at LF/DH.

Honestly, if we can get Hendriks plus those two, I'd be fine not adding another SP if we are maxed out. I think Kopech and Cease can hold down 4/5. 

 

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41 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Are they actually that high?  I only get to ~$109M ignoring signing bonuses and leaving three roster spots open for outside additions.  If my numbers are correct, that means we’d be ~$31M away from a $140M payroll figure, which is probably what it would cost to add the three guys you mentioned.  I’m still fairly confident we spend on a closer and a #4 starter, but just not sure if Jerry will allow us to splurge on that bat.  I see that being a late January or early February addition when someone is desperate for a job and is willing to take something like 1/$5M from us.

I have them at $118M right now, and still to add a closer, an SP and then to replace Vaughn with that lefty bat.

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6 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Both are affordable. LaStella will be needed since Madrigal might not be healthy to start the year and I get a feeling TLR might like LA Stella better anyway. He provides Moncada long hauler COVID insurance at 3b, too. Give him 1/8m.

We can get Schwarber for 1/5-6m. Play musical chairs with him and Eloy at LF/DH.

Honestly, if we can get Hendriks plus those two, I'd be fine not adding another SP if we are maxed out. I think Kopech and Cease can hold down 4/5. 

 

Gotta disagree with you here.  Katz has already stated that Kopech will be on a strict innings limit next year and five starters is not enough to get through a normal season let alone a pandemic-impacted one.  We need a solid #4 starter at minimum to ensure the most basic level of depth.  I’ll keep saying it, but Kopech needs to the be #6 starter to begin the season (in AAA), Lopez the #7 starter (in bullpen), and Stiever the #8 (in AAA).  Still a lot of uncertainty there, but most teams aren’t going to more than six legit starters outside maybe the Dodgers.

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1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Are they actually that high?  I only get to ~$109M  

I agree on the 109 estimate

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1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Gotta disagree with you here.  Katz has already stated that Kopech will be on a strict innings limit next year and five starters is not enough to get through a normal season let alone a pandemic-impacted one.  We need a solid #4 starter at minimum to ensure the most basic level of depth.  I’ll keep saying it, but Kopech needs to the be #6 starter to begin the season (in AAA), Lopez the #7 starter (in bullpen), and Stiever the #8 (in AAA).  Still a lot of uncertainty there, but most teams aren’t going to more than six legit starters outside maybe the Dodgers.

I didn't know Katz made those comments. Thanks for letting me know. Perhaps that's why they seem to be looking into Musgrove closely as it seems Q is priced out of our range financially, if they want to still afford Hendriks. 

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59 minutes ago, Vulture said:

I agree on the 109 estimate

 

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Are they actually that high?  I only get to ~$109M ignoring signing bonuses and leaving three roster spots open for outside additions.  If my numbers are correct, that means we’d be ~$31M away from a $140M payroll figure, which is probably what it would cost to add the three guys you mentioned.  I’m still fairly confident we spend on a closer and a #4 starter, but just not sure if Jerry will allow us to splurge on that bat.  I see that being a late January or early February addition when someone is desperate for a job and is willing to take something like 1/$5M from us.

 

2 hours ago, bear_brian said:

I have them at $118M right now, and still to add a closer, an SP and then to replace Vaughn with that lefty bat.

According to Spotrac, they're just under 110M (link) at the moment, with the salary estimations on Gio & ReyLo. 

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6 minutes ago, Sleepy Harold said:

 

 

According to Spotrac, they're just under 110M (link) at the moment, with the salary estimations on Gio & ReyLo. 

Fangraphs /Roster Resource has them currently at $119M

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3 hours ago, Greek-konerko said:

Irrelevant but i wabted to wish u all my fellow sox fans hapoy bew year with heslth to everyone of u and your families, unfortunately 2020 closes for me bad csuse today new years rve i diagnosed with lung cancer,hapoy new year!!!!

Just saw this...all the best and God speed

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3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Are they actually that high?  I only get to ~$109M ignoring signing bonuses and leaving three roster spots open for outside additions.  If my numbers are correct, that means we’d be ~$31M away from a $140M payroll figure, which is probably what it would cost to add the three guys you mentioned.  I’m still fairly confident we spend on a closer and a #4 starter, but just not sure if Jerry will allow us to splurge on that bat.  I see that being a late January or early February addition when someone is desperate for a job and is willing to take something like 1/$5M from us.

Plus they need to start seriously considering the cost/benefit of a Giolito extension.

Of course, if he repeats 2019/20, then you have to think Reinsdorf would definitely hesitate on giving out $100+ million extension to a pitcher with a TJ surgery is his past.   The Danks extension would be used as the excuse as well.   4-6 year contracts for Sox pitchers...we’ll believe it when we see it with our own eyes.

And you’d have to think Giolito was paying close attention to the Wheeler deal...even if those market conditions no longer apply.

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29 minutes ago, Flash said:

Fangraphs /Roster Resource has them currently at $119M

I could see why different posters are coming up with different totals then, makes a lot of sense.

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7 hours ago, bmags said:

That was my point. He said sox don’t have a comparable package that doesn’t include Kopech/Vaughn. Then he makes one, but says it’s too much for Sox, even though it proves that we could make a similar package.

The real problem for Sox is just that a package of Ramos, Rodriguez, Bailey and Bush would both clear out a generation(not sure this is right word)  of positional prospects and also is weaker than the Padres offer in all likelihood.

What people don't seem to understand is Cubs/Hoyer didn't just target a certain type of player (young, skilled, up the middle, athletic, etc.), he targeted specific talent in Padres organization. Before Darvish' contract is over, my guess is at least one if not 2/3 of these guys will be among the highest rated prospects in MLB. My sense is it wouldn't have mattered whether Cease or Kopech were the headliners. For the type of player(s) Hoyer was seeking and the time-window he was focused on, the White Sox were not a good trade partner.  

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5 minutes ago, Sleepy Harold said:

I could see why different posters are coming up with different totals then, makes a lot of sense.

 "Payrolls are for 40-man rosters and include averages of multiyear contracts; health and pension benefits; clubs medical costs; insurance; workman's compensation, payroll, unemployment and Social Security taxes; spring training allowances; meal and tip money; All-Star game expenses; travel and moving expenses; postseason pay; and college scholarships."

How one calculates all of these extra factors is the key...usually, it’s at least $12-15 million higher.

The owners, obviously, would prefer to use these numbers than just the salaries alone because it’s simply PR/perception...but you wouldn’t find a single baseball fan 15-20 years ago thinking about such things, other than do we have enough money to sign XYZ player or not.

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1 hour ago, Vulture said:

I agree on the 109 estimate

Thanks.  And that means we hopefully have at least another $21M to work with as I believe last year’s payroll was around $130M on a full season basis.  The challenge is Hendriks will likely eat up $13M of that if we are able to convert, leaving potentially only $8M for a #4 starter and a bat.  Quintana, Richards, Paxton, & Kluber might end up taking one year deals, but I’m confident they all get $10M+, which means we need Jerry to push this thing closer to $135M to $140M or will need to settle for C tier free agents to fill out our remaining holes or skip a bat altogether.  I’m definitely concerned they add Hendriks and then go super cheap elsewhere, which would put us in a dangerous spot from a depth perspective.  And that really sucks, because for $140M or a 7.5% payroll increase vs 2020, we could probably add Hendriks, one of those starters, and La Stella or Schwarber.  Do that and you immediately have a fairly complete roster to start the season and keep most of your prospect currency intact for whatever holes present themselves, all for an extra $10M that will have no bearing on the quality of life for anyone in our ownership group.

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15 minutes ago, Flash said:

What people don't seem to understand is Cubs/Hoyer didn't just target a certain type of player (young, skilled, up the middle, athletic, etc.), he targeted specific talent in Padres organization. Before Darvish' contract is over, my guess is at least one if not 2/3 of these guys will be among the highest rated prospects in MLB. My sense is it wouldn't have mattered whether Cease or Kopech were the headliners. For the type of player(s) Hoyer was seeking and the time-window he was focused on, the White Sox were not a good trade partner.  

It’s risky for Hoyer in the sense that Cubs’ fans are likely going to get very impatient when they’re a Top 3-5 MLB franchise but are acting like the TB Rays.

Especially whenever they look at their Marquee charges to bills or attempt to purchase anything in the neighborhood outside the ballpark.

But the curious thing is the second biggest issue with Epstein for the latter half of his Cubs’ career (after bad free agent deals) was the almost complete inability to develop their own pitching.   Davies will likely be gone by August.  Why not address THAT?   Because fixating on position players alone has proven to be a mistake in hindsight.

If you trade Bryant/Baez/Contreras and then Kimbrel for half his salary...that leaves fans with just Rizzo and Hendricks to cheer for. Which won’t be easy for any Cubs’ fan who revisits the feeling around the franchise four or five years ago to digest.  Arguably, Darvish, Contreras (two years left on contract), Hendricks and Bryant/Baez in walk years should be comparable pieces to what the Sox auctioned off in their rebuild. Early returns though, suggest the very worst possible timing in history to be doing such a thing.

 

Edited by caulfield12
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1 hour ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I didn't know Katz made those comments. Thanks for letting me know. Perhaps that's why they seem to be looking into Musgrove closely as it seems Q is priced out of our range financially, if they want to still afford Hendriks. 

If they really on a tight budget and want Hendriks above all else, Musgrove may be the better play than rolling the dice on whatever free agent starter might be willing to take $8M or less.

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16 minutes ago, Flash said:

What people don't seem to understand is Cubs/Hoyer didn't just target a certain type of player (young, skilled, up the middle, athletic, etc.), he targeted specific talent in Padres organization. Before Darvish' contract is over, my guess is at least one if not 2/3 of these guys will be among the highest rated prospects in MLB. My sense is it wouldn't have mattered whether Cease or Kopech were the headliners. For the type of player(s) Hoyer was seeking and the time-window he was focused on, the White Sox were not a good trade partner.  

I have no idea why you think these guys are all suddenly going to be elite prospects.  Three of the guys have never even played baseball in the U.S.  Is it in the range of outcomes?  Possibly, because these guys all have high ceilings, but the game is filled with prospects like this and the hit rates are fairly low.  Hoyer took these prospects because the elite guys, more proven guys were probably off limits and given where their rebuild is heading, he’s able to gamble on kids that are years away.  I think you’re giving Hoyer way too much credit here, he simply made the best he could out of a shit hand he was dealt due to the Ricketts’ poor financial situation.

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4 hours ago, Greek-konerko said:

Irrelevant but i wabted to wish u all my fellow sox fans hapoy bew year with heslth to everyone of u and your families, unfortunately 2020 closes for me bad csuse today new years rve i diagnosed with lung cancer,hapoy new year!!!!

Thank you very much and I think I speak for the rest of Soxtalk in hoping that they caught it early enough to give you hope. I pray that you and your family are given the strength to endure.

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4 hours ago, bear_brian said:

They are at $ 118M now. IF they add Hendriks (13M0) Quintana (10M) and La Stella (7M), they hit slightly under $150M. Not saying any of those moves will turn out, just spitballing based on the hamburger guy's conjecture.

Imagine them adding Bauer instead of Q for 20 more million and Springer instead of La Stella for 15ish more....That's around 185 before extending Giolito. 

 

That....seems like you're setting yourself up to be in the same position as the Cubs in a couple years. 

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54 minutes ago, Flash said:

What people don't seem to understand is Cubs/Hoyer didn't just target a certain type of player (young, skilled, up the middle, athletic, etc.), he targeted specific talent in Padres organization. Before Darvish' contract is over, my guess is at least one if not 2/3 of these guys will be among the highest rated prospects in MLB. My sense is it wouldn't have mattered whether Cease or Kopech were the headliners. For the type of player(s) Hoyer was seeking and the time-window he was focused on, the White Sox were not a good trade partner.  

I think the Sox could have gotten it done but it probably would have been more costly.

Cubs are really collecting shortstops and the sox have mostly DHs and pitchers in their system.

Still I doubt cubs would not have said no to cease and madrigal or so but that would have been a big overpay.

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46 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I have no idea why you think these guys are all suddenly going to be elite prospects.  Three of the guys have never even played baseball in the U.S.  Is it in the range of outcomes?  Possibly, because these guys all have high ceilings, but the game is filled with prospects like this and the hit rates are fairly low.  Hoyer took these prospects because the elite guys, more proven guys were probably off limits and given where their rebuild is heading, he’s able to gamble on kids that are years away.  I think you’re giving Hoyer way too much credit here, he simply made the best he could out of a shit hand he was dealt due to the Ricketts’ poor financial situation.

Its not what I think. Do some research on Preciado and Santana. Of course they might bust but the upside is Tatis Jr. I understand Hoyer had to trim payroll but if he didn't think this was a strong package based on Cubs situation, he would have listened to Portillos and moved Darvish to the Sox for Madrigal (yeah right).

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3 hours ago, Flash said:

What people don't seem to understand is Cubs/Hoyer didn't just target a certain type of player (young, skilled, up the middle, athletic, etc.), he targeted specific talent in Padres organization. Before Darvish' contract is over, my guess is at least one if not 2/3 of these guys will be among the highest rated prospects in MLB. My sense is it wouldn't have mattered whether Cease or Kopech were the headliners. For the type of player(s) Hoyer was seeking and the time-window he was focused on, the White Sox were not a good trade partner.  

Is this the first time you’ve ever read up on prospects?

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