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southsider2k5

Chuck loves Cease

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I kind of feel sorry for Katz. It is going to be very hard to live up to the hype.

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

I kind of feel sorry for Katz. It is going to be very hard to live up to the hype.

If he has one project this year it should be Cease. The analytics show that he has PLUS stuff but cant generate swings and misses. His awful swing/miss and chase peripherals remind me of 2018 Gio which makes Cease such a break out candidate IMO. 

Cease's O-Swing% (Swings on pitches outside the zone) was 26% (8th lowest among 81 pitchers with 50IP) and his swing and miss % was 9% (18th worst). He also had a first pitch strike percentage of 54% (7th worst). 

In 2018 Giolito's O-Swing% was 24%,  his Swing and Miss % was 8%, and his first pitch strike % was 55% . In 2019 that went to 32%, 15%, and 62% respectively. Jake Arrieta, another guy who had a rough MLB start but had plus stuff had similar changes in those percentages. Both made minor adjustments on mound positioning and increased first pitch strike % significantly.

Having plus stuff doesnt mean shit if youre behind in the count. His swing % was 41% which was sixth lowest which makes sense he started as many counts 1-0 as nearly any pitcher in the league.

 

 

Edited by FriendlyNorthsider
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4 hours ago, FriendlyNorthsider said:

If he has one project this year it should be Cease. The analytics show that he has PLUS stuff but cant generate swings and misses. His awful swing/miss and chase peripherals remind me of 2018 Gio which makes Cease such a break out candidate IMO. 

Cease's O-Swing% (Swings on pitches outside the zone) was 26% (8th lowest among 81 pitchers with 50IP) and his swing and miss % was 9% (18th worst). He also had a first pitch strike percentage of 54% (7th worst). 

In 2018 Giolito's O-Swing% was 24%,  his Swing and Miss % was 8%, and his first pitch strike % was 55% . In 2019 that went to 32%, 15%, and 62% respectively. Jake Arrieta, another guy who had a rough MLB start but had plus stuff had similar changes in those percentages. Both made minor adjustments on mound positioning and increased first pitch strike % significantly.

Having plus stuff doesnt mean shit if youre behind in the count. His swing % was 41% which was sixth lowest which makes sense he started as many counts 1-0 as nearly any pitcher in the league.

 

 

Solid post. Thanks for the stats. 

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13 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

I kind of feel sorry for Katz. It is going to be very hard to live up to the hype.

Agreed!  Expectations are very high including my own.

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13 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

I kind of feel sorry for Katz. It is going to be very hard to live up to the hype.

I don't. All he has to do is get Cease to solid #4 performance and manage the BP well. If he does his 2021 will be a success in my eyes. 

That's not too much to ask at all when Cease has the stuff and MLB experience. We also have a skilled BP.

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I agree that Cease is his one real project.  Would be nice salvage Lopez as a reliever, but if he can turn Cease into a #3 starter (or better) he’s done his job.

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7 hours ago, FriendlyNorthsider said:

If he has one project this year it should be Cease. The analytics show that he has PLUS stuff but cant generate swings and misses. His awful swing/miss and chase peripherals remind me of 2018 Gio which makes Cease such a break out candidate IMO. 

Cease's O-Swing% (Swings on pitches outside the zone) was 26% (8th lowest among 81 pitchers with 50IP) and his swing and miss % was 9% (18th worst). He also had a first pitch strike percentage of 54% (7th worst). 

In 2018 Giolito's O-Swing% was 24%,  his Swing and Miss % was 8%, and his first pitch strike % was 55% . In 2019 that went to 32%, 15%, and 62% respectively. Jake Arrieta, another guy who had a rough MLB start but had plus stuff had similar changes in those percentages. Both made minor adjustments on mound positioning and increased first pitch strike % significantly.

Having plus stuff doesnt mean shit if youre behind in the count. His swing % was 41% which was sixth lowest which makes sense he started as many counts 1-0 as nearly any pitcher in the league.

 

 

It's absolutely this. Lopez would need to "find" stuff. But Cease has it.

It could be as simple as he may be able to command his secondary pitches better and is not relying on locating his fastball to set himself up. But we don't really know.

Cease is a hilarious interview. It certainly isn't lack of effort, he's putting in the work. Baseball is hard and non-sensical but you hope a guy like that can make it work. He's not a guy you'd say is squandering his talent.

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7 hours ago, FriendlyNorthsider said:

If he has one project this year it should be Cease. The analytics show that he has PLUS stuff but cant generate swings and misses. His awful swing/miss and chase peripherals remind me of 2018 Gio which makes Cease such a break out candidate IMO. 

Cease's O-Swing% (Swings on pitches outside the zone) was 26% (8th lowest among 81 pitchers with 50IP) and his swing and miss % was 9% (18th worst). He also had a first pitch strike percentage of 54% (7th worst). 

In 2018 Giolito's O-Swing% was 24%,  his Swing and Miss % was 8%, and his first pitch strike % was 55% . In 2019 that went to 32%, 15%, and 62% respectively. Jake Arrieta, another guy who had a rough MLB start but had plus stuff had similar changes in those percentages. Both made minor adjustments on mound positioning and increased first pitch strike % significantly.

Having plus stuff doesnt mean shit if youre behind in the count. His swing % was 41% which was sixth lowest which makes sense he started as many counts 1-0 as nearly any pitcher in the league.

 

 

Yep, he needs to work from ahead to be effective.  His stuff is why his overall number weren't a lot worse.  If the kid figures out how to work 0-1 instead of 1-0, look out.

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4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Yep, he needs to work from ahead to be effective.  His stuff is why his overall number weren't a lot worse.  If the kid figures out how to work 0-1 instead of 1-0, look out.

As that great earlier post shows, he doesn’t throw enough pitches just off the plate. We all saw that when he missed the zone, it was by a ridiculous amount. No one will swing at a breaking ball that bounces before the plate, no matter how much spin it has.

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Posted (edited)

I think Grandal needs a set plan for Cease specifically to implement Katz analytics. I like Yaz a lot, but I did notice some pitch call discrepancies throughout the season. I think the two of them need to find that rhythm and not be so predictable. Cease let Grandal call a lot of his pitches early in the season. Not sure how that changed over the course of the year, but hopefully Katz and Yaz really can guide him this year. He reminds me of Garland in a lot of ways....but with so much better stuff. 

Edited by EloyJenkins

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4 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I agree that Cease is his one real project.  Would be nice salvage Lopez as a reliever, but if he can turn Cease into a #3 starter (or better) he’s done his job.

Kopech is a project until he shows us differently.

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1 minute ago, poppysox said:

Kopech is a project until he shows us differently.

Yup. But probably cant give Katz a "score" on Kopech until 22.

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14 hours ago, FriendlyNorthsider said:

If he has one project this year it should be Cease. The analytics show that he has PLUS stuff but cant generate swings and misses. His awful swing/miss and chase peripherals remind me of 2018 Gio which makes Cease such a break out candidate IMO. 

Cease's O-Swing% (Swings on pitches outside the zone) was 26% (8th lowest among 81 pitchers with 50IP) and his swing and miss % was 9% (18th worst). He also had a first pitch strike percentage of 54% (7th worst). 

In 2018 Giolito's O-Swing% was 24%,  his Swing and Miss % was 8%, and his first pitch strike % was 55% . In 2019 that went to 32%, 15%, and 62% respectively. Jake Arrieta, another guy who had a rough MLB start but had plus stuff had similar changes in those percentages. Both made minor adjustments on mound positioning and increased first pitch strike % significantly.

Having plus stuff doesnt mean shit if youre behind in the count. His swing % was 41% which was sixth lowest which makes sense he started as many counts 1-0 as nearly any pitcher in the league.

 

 

Welcome to Soxtalk!

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8 hours ago, fathom said:

As that great earlier post shows, he doesn’t throw enough pitches just off the plate. We all saw that when he missed the zone, it was by a ridiculous amount. No one will swing at a breaking ball that bounces before the plate, no matter how much spin it has.

Geuss which one is Cease and which one is Giolito?

 

282F246C-2245-48B6-A758-7169425C7716.jpeg

3DBE8609-5FCC-4650-98A2-2024C657E790.jpeg

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Giolito is a guy who can pick up his strikes and then pitch in a way which is favorable to his end and unfavorable to the hitter, knowing that he can come back and throw the ball in the zone if he has to. 

Cease OTOH cannot pick up strikes when he needs to, really ever.  He represents (as does Robert and Kopech) one of the bigger losses of last season because he really needed the reps and experience.  Unfortunately he didn't get what he needed, so now there's the issue of him not only needing to get the full season workload of pitches per game and stressful innings, etc., that still has to be met, but he also has to "step forward" on top of it, and really that is 2 different steps that should be taken in 2 different seasons for a guy like him.  Hopefully Katz can simplify some things for him and he can use use his power arsenal early and in the zone, and not focus on Ks just strikes and first pitch strikes, and go from there.

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1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Geuss which one is Cease and which one is Giolito?

 

282F246C-2245-48B6-A758-7169425C7716.jpeg

3DBE8609-5FCC-4650-98A2-2024C657E790.jpeg

Lordy

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21 hours ago, FriendlyNorthsider said:

Cease's O-Swing% (Swings on pitches outside the zone) was 26% (8th lowest among 81 pitchers with 50IP) and his swing and miss % was 9% (18th worst). He also had a first pitch strike percentage of 54% (7th worst). 

In 2018 Giolito's O-Swing% was 24%,  his Swing and Miss % was 8%, and his first pitch strike % was 55% . In 2019 that went to 32%, 15%, and 62% respectively. Jake Arrieta, another guy who had a rough MLB start but had plus stuff had similar changes in those percentages. Both made minor adjustments on mound positioning and increased first pitch strike % significantly.

Having plus stuff doesnt mean shit if youre behind in the count. His swing % was 41% which was sixth lowest which makes sense he started as many counts 1-0 as nearly any pitcher in the league.

The bolded is all that really matters about Cease. His velo, his stuff, and his assortment of pitches means exactly Jack and Shit, if he can't fucking throw for strikes. Which, of course, leads to his shitty BB/9IP, his shitty K/9IP, and his generally shitty overall outcomes.

Now, I've favored Cease fucking off to Charlotte to fucking learn how to fucking throw fucking strikes. If he can successfully get his shit sorted, then the sky's the limit for the youngster. But, if not, well then, there are opportunities for him in Mexico or Asia. He may have been a golden god in high school and in the low minors, but once again, if he can't throw strikes and he's walking the yard, then Cease is pretty much useless. I hope he can figure some stuff out.

 

The issue is that this year's team REALLY can't wait on him to unfuck himself, while simultaneously trying to compete. This is why I'd like at least one more SP signed in FA, while Cease and Kopech contemplate the glory of pitching in Taiwan in the future while riding busses across the American South in 2021. That is, if they can't get their shit sorted.

 

The other thing is that Katz is being talked up because he undid the damage Cooper did to Giolito. But OTOH, didn't Katz try to unfuck Fulmer as well? Why is it assumed that "Katz will fix him?" Of course I hope Katz CAN fix Cease, but who knows...

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23 hours ago, FriendlyNorthsider said:

If he has one project this year it should be Cease. The analytics show that he has PLUS stuff but cant generate swings and misses. His awful swing/miss and chase peripherals remind me of 2018 Gio which makes Cease such a break out candidate IMO. 

Cease's O-Swing% (Swings on pitches outside the zone) was 26% (8th lowest among 81 pitchers with 50IP) and his swing and miss % was 9% (18th worst). He also had a first pitch strike percentage of 54% (7th worst). 

In 2018 Giolito's O-Swing% was 24%,  his Swing and Miss % was 8%, and his first pitch strike % was 55% . In 2019 that went to 32%, 15%, and 62% respectively. Jake Arrieta, another guy who had a rough MLB start but had plus stuff had similar changes in those percentages. Both made minor adjustments on mound positioning and increased first pitch strike % significantly.

Having plus stuff doesnt mean shit if youre behind in the count. His swing % was 41% which was sixth lowest which makes sense he started as many counts 1-0 as nearly any pitcher in the league.

 

 

Post more. 

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Posted (edited)

Cease definitely is a candidate to improve but so was reylo last year, so it is not guaranteed.

Command needs to get better, if he doesn't pitch from behind so much his stuff will be more efficient.

Edited by Dominikk85

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15 hours ago, fathom said:

As that great earlier post shows, he doesn’t throw enough pitches just off the plate. We all saw that when he missed the zone, it was by a ridiculous amount. No one will swing at a breaking ball that bounces before the plate, no matter how much spin it has.

I’ve said this on here before, but I had a really hard time watching him pitch last year.  Before the season started, he was one of the players I was most looking forward to seeing progress.  I love watching pitchers with good stuff.  Even through the developmental stages when they kind of suck, I still enjoy eventually seeing that perfectly spun curveball that gives you so much hope and excrement.  
 

Cease was the opposite of that last season.  I can’t remember having any positive thoughts because his control was so bad, his stuff was non-existent.  How can we be excited about a curveball that starts two feet out of the zone and ends up getting blocked by the catcher’s body.  No major league hitter is going to swing at a ball that’s already 20 inches outside the zone and spinning like crazy.  And from the guy who has already thrown 70 pitches to get through 2.1 innings.  They also are not going to swing at your fastball out of the zone when they know nothing makes it back in the zone.   I’m surprised he didn’t get hit a lot harder when he was in the zone with his straight fastball.  He clearly had a ton of luck last season to keep a 4 ERA.  
 

I think my point was that if Katz can figure out how to make Cease throw strikes, he will be extremely good.  Katz also needs to work with Cease on how to use his pitches in tandem.
 

I want to be more confident in Cease but I don’t know if he will ever be able to keep his control consistently.  And no, that won’t really play in the bullpen either.  That would be a terrible waste of guy with stuff (somewhat) similar to Glasnow.  That’s the most frustrating part, when he has a hitter in a rare two strike count, he doesn’t even need to start it in the zone, he can keep in there.  Guys will swing through his stuff, especially behind in the count if he puts it near the plate.  Learning to use his fastball in tandem with his breaking pitches will huge, but that only works when you locate the pitches anywhere near his target.  
 

I do sometimes forgot how good this team would be next year and beyond if Cease blossomed into a #2

Thats all I have to say about that.

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Posted (edited)

Ironically Dylan and Dallas have very similar strike throwing profiles. They both avoid the zone, they see heavy contact in the zone, they don't throw a lot of first pitch strikes or generate a lot of swinging strikes. So while I don't necessarily disagree that command it what's holding Dylan back it's clearly possible to be successful with his level of strike throwing. 

In the end if you're going to have success you need to generate value with your fastball and that's where Dylan is falling short. The main reason being his fastball has poor horizontal movement. He was 40% below avg in 2020 and 76% below avg in 2019. I don't see command overcoming a more fundamental issue of his fastball being straight and hittable despite the velocity. Additionally he was getting crushed on his change up. Just like the 4-seamer his change up lacks any h-movement. He's clearly not deceptive enough on the delivery and the velocity difference alone isn't fooling hitters. His change is effectively a low 80s meatball. 

The good news is he did improve quite a bit on h-movement in 2020 over 2019.

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Pitch Value /100

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Edited by mac9001

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Posted (edited)
On 1/6/2021 at 1:36 AM, FriendlyNorthsider said:

If he has one project this year it should be Cease. The analytics show that he has PLUS stuff but cant generate swings and misses. His awful swing/miss and chase peripherals remind me of 2018 Gio which makes Cease such a break out candidate IMO. 

Cease's O-Swing% (Swings on pitches outside the zone) was 26% (8th lowest among 81 pitchers with 50IP) and his swing and miss % was 9% (18th worst). He also had a first pitch strike percentage of 54% (7th worst). 

In 2018 Giolito's O-Swing% was 24%,  his Swing and Miss % was 8%, and his first pitch strike % was 55% . In 2019 that went to 32%, 15%, and 62% respectively. Jake Arrieta, another guy who had a rough MLB start but had plus stuff had similar changes in those percentages. Both made minor adjustments on mound positioning and increased first pitch strike % significantly.

Having plus stuff doesnt mean shit if youre behind in the count. His swing % was 41% which was sixth lowest which makes sense he started as many counts 1-0 as nearly any pitcher in the league.

 

 

Translation: If you don't throw strikes, hitters tend not to swing. 

The job for Katz: Throw more strikes.

Edited by ptatc

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12 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

The bolded is all that really matters about Cease. His velo, his stuff, and his assortment of pitches means exactly Jack and Shit, if he can't fucking throw for strikes. Which, of course, leads to his shitty BB/9IP, his shitty K/9IP, and his generally shitty overall outcomes.

Now, I've favored Cease fucking off to Charlotte to fucking learn how to fucking throw fucking strikes. If he can successfully get his shit sorted, then the sky's the limit for the youngster. But, if not, well then, there are opportunities for him in Mexico or Asia. He may have been a golden god in high school and in the low minors, but once again, if he can't throw strikes and he's walking the yard, then Cease is pretty much useless. I hope he can figure some stuff out.

 

The issue is that this year's team REALLY can't wait on him to unfuck himself, while simultaneously trying to compete. This is why I'd like at least one more SP signed in FA, while Cease and Kopech contemplate the glory of pitching in Taiwan in the future while riding busses across the American South in 2021. That is, if they can't get their shit sorted.

 

The other thing is that Katz is being talked up because he undid the damage Cooper did to Giolito. But OTOH, didn't Katz try to unfuck Fulmer as well? Why is it assumed that "Katz will fix him?" Of course I hope Katz CAN fix Cease, but who knows...

The idea that somehow one can fix everyone is so dumb.  The idea that because a pitching coach didn't fix one guy so he can't fix another is also just insane.  It is such a waste of a post.

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