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EvilJester99

Sox sign Hendriks: 3/$39M - 4th year optional with $15M buyout

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3 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Colome isn't throwing 50 pitches or getting a 3 inning save in the playoffs. Hendriks did both during the last postseason. 

This is the value.

But I do think it's ok to talk about the fact that colome was perfect last year. I just had my doubts he would be able to repeat it moving forward because he had to do a lot to get that shoulder ready and I think he is already straddling a line. I have a lot of respect for what Colome did because it doesn't get much better results wise, and the fact that I hated getting him, but moving forward Hendriks provides a more likely stable backend.

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1 hour ago, WhiteSoxFan1993 said:

Wow, that's a lot of money for a reliever. I'm glad to have him, but I wouldn't have been upset if the Sox weren't willing to pay that much to get him.

I'm not in favor of trading Heuer unless the Sox are set on moving Kopech or Crochet to reliver permanently.

Hendriks-Bummer-Marshall-Heuer-Fry-Foster-Cordero-Burdi/Lopez is a nice bullpen and I wouldn't want to lose Heuer unless Kopech or Crochet are replacing him.

If the Sox are still in on Bauer, give him another week or so and if you can't land him, sign Quintana or one of the other comparable available options.

With this Hendriks signing I think the Bauer plan is off the table.  Payroll is currently at $126M (with Giolito and Lopez at $4 & $2) and if the Sox are capped at $140M then you only have $11M or so to add another SP (from the bargain bin) and a backup catcher or LH DH/LF.  Taking on another team's high salary guy is gone too.  IMO.

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Let's hope he gets plenty of opportunities this year. 

I'm ok with starting the season with this roster,  but it's going to be cheaper now to address the other needs now rather than at the deadline. 

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17 minutes ago, vilehoopster said:

I agree with this guy. The Sox spent all this money to get a guy less good than Colome. 

Here's a copy and past from what I posted earlier on this topic on a different thread: 

Colome is clearly, clearly better than Hendriks. Clearly. 

Colome the last two years:

2019 - 30 saves in 33 save opportunities

2020 - 12 saves in 13 save opportunities

Hendricks last two years:

2019 - 25 saves in 32 save chances

2020 - 14 saves in 15 save opportunities

Totals: 

Colome - 42 saves in 46 save opportunities -- four blown saves

Hendricks - 39 saves in 47 opportunities - eight blown saves

In only one more opportunity, Hendricks has blown twice as many games as Colome over the last two years, twice as many

I am glad the Sox are spending money, and I am going to say the the Sox brass knows what they're doing, but I don't get how Hendrick at the best closer in baseball when he wasn't better than Colome. Again, Hendrick blew twice as many saves as Colome over the last two years, twice as many. 

I'm glad the Sox are spending money and especially glad we didn't get a stiff like Brad Hand, but the Sox could have kept Colome for a lot, lot less money and had a better reliever. 

I'd like to know more about Hendrik's blown saves. If he comes in to the game in the 8th inning of a 1 run game with guys on base and gives up a run, that's a blown save. I have no idea if that was the case for any of his 8 blown saves, but it's something worth checking out if you are going to compare Colome and Hendriks that way.

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21 minutes ago, vilehoopster said:

I agree with this guy. The Sox spent all this money to get a guy less good than Colome. 

Here's a copy and past from what I posted earlier on this topic on a different thread: 

Colome is clearly, clearly better than Hendriks. Clearly. 

Colome the last two years:

2019 - 30 saves in 33 save opportunities

2020 - 12 saves in 13 save opportunities

Hendricks last two years:

2019 - 25 saves in 32 save chances

2020 - 14 saves in 15 save opportunities

Totals: 

Colome - 42 saves in 46 save opportunities -- four blown saves

Hendricks - 39 saves in 47 opportunities - eight blown saves

In only one more opportunity, Hendricks has blown twice as many games as Colome over the last two years, twice as many

I am glad the Sox are spending money, and I am going to say the the Sox brass knows what they're doing, but I don't get how Hendrick at the best closer in baseball when he wasn't better than Colome. Again, Hendrick blew twice as many saves as Colome over the last two years, twice as many. 

I'm glad the Sox are spending money and especially glad we didn't get a stiff like Brad Hand, but the Sox could have kept Colome for a lot, lot less money and had a better reliever. 

 

We've reached the point of this discussion of comparing save stats as to who is better.   At least it's not ERA comparison.  But still dumb no doubt. 

 

 

Edited by HOFHurt35
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1 minute ago, HOFHurt35 said:

 

We've reached the point of this discussion of comparing save stats as to who is better.   At least it's not ERA comparison.  But still dumb no doubt. 

 

 

Yeah, and Colome has struggled for many of his saves.  He's a bit lucky he didn't blow more.  In the end, he got it done but how long can that go on?

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1 hour ago, Harry Chappas said:

So in three years when Hendricks is good but no longer elite and Bummer is the closer and the Sox don't want to spend $15M on a non- closer, this board should be fun.

They are definitely not picking up that fourth year.  They might as well say it right now.  The only reason it's there is to make the AAV look higher than it actually is.  This is a 3 year deal for $39 mil.  The 1.5 a year each year for a decade is basically nothing, big picture.

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26 minutes ago, vilehoopster said:

I agree with this guy. The Sox spent all this money to get a guy less good than Colome. 

Here's a copy and past from what I posted earlier on this topic on a different thread: 

Colome is clearly, clearly better than Hendriks. Clearly. 

Colome the last two years:

2019 - 30 saves in 33 save opportunities

2020 - 12 saves in 13 save opportunities

Hendricks last two years:

2019 - 25 saves in 32 save chances

2020 - 14 saves in 15 save opportunities

Totals: 

Colome - 42 saves in 46 save opportunities -- four blown saves

Hendricks - 39 saves in 47 opportunities - eight blown saves

In only one more opportunity, Hendricks has blown twice as many games as Colome over the last two years, twice as many

I am glad the Sox are spending money, and I am going to say the the Sox brass knows what they're doing, but I don't get how Hendrick at the best closer in baseball when he wasn't better than Colome. Again, Hendrick blew twice as many saves as Colome over the last two years, twice as many. 

I'm glad the Sox are spending money and especially glad we didn't get a stiff like Brad Hand, but the Sox could have kept Colome for a lot, lot less money and had a better reliever. 

Just as an FYI, head to a metrics site and check out some of the player comparsions:

Alex Colome - Daniel Norris, Tyler Beede, Tyler Mahle

Liam Hendriks - Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, Ken Giles

 

Gotta use ore than baseball card stats to see value

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27 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

For some reason, I wouldn't be too busted up if Jose Ruiz is DFA'd.

Indians would be

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2 minutes ago, fathom said:

Indians would be

Jose Ruiz ruined like 5 games I saw in person where he came in for an inning and it would last 30 minutes and he'd give up 4 home runs. I would see these numbers that implied he had innings where he didn't implode but I'm not sure I ever saw one.

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14 minutes ago, bmags said:

This is the value.

But I do think it's ok to talk about the fact that colome was perfect last year. I just had my doubts he would be able to repeat it moving forward because he had to do a lot to get that shoulder ready and I think he is already straddling a line. I have a lot of respect for what Colome did because it doesn't get much better results wise, and the fact that I hated getting him, but moving forward Hendriks provides a more likely stable backend.

Right, and I don't disagree -- I like the move and I'll take Hendriks over Colome any day of the week.  But we're replacing (hopefully upgrading) what was already a position of historical strength.  Just don't think it improves our baseline level of team quality as much as, say, replacing a back-end starter, DH, or RF with an above-average player.  

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11 minutes ago, sullythered said:

They are definitely not picking up that fourth year.  They might as well say it right now.  The only reason it's there is to make the AAV look higher than it actually is.  This is a 3 year deal for $39 mil.  The 1.5 a year each year for a decade is basically nothing, big picture.

On the other hand, if he's still an elite closer after 3 years, that $15m option to keep him will be a steal. 

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Honestly, I would still look into McGee, Bradley, heck even check the price of Colome and Hand (off the top of my head, there could be other good options too). Just make it a huge strength in case you need them to work a lot with question marks in the 4 and 5 spots.

Edited by manbearpuig

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Sorry, but this is a bad take.  Colome hasn't even been the most valuable White Sox reliever over the last 2 years, that would be Bummer.  Over the last 2 years Hendriks has been the best reliever in all of baseball and it isn't even particularly close.

We've reached the point of this discussion of comparing save stats as to who is better.   At least it's not ERA comparison.  But still dumb no doubt. 

When a closer comes in, all that matters is the save, save the game for your team. How it was done should not matter at all, not at all. And when you look at who was better at saves, Colome was twice as good as Hendriks, twice as good. Again, indisputable fact: in the last two years, in one more appearance, Hendrick blew TWICE as many games as Colome over the last two years, indisputable fact. Whether he did it with ground out, fly outs, or strikes outs doesn't matter. What matters is saving the win. And again, Hendircks blew twice as many games as Colome over the last two years, and if we're gonna look at other factors, he blew twice as many with a much better defense behind him

The first guy I quoted gives all these stats: babip and strike out rate. That shit doesn't matter if you're blowing the save, twice as many. Looking at babip and missed bats and ignoring who is better at keeping the lead with the game on the line is the ultimate example of not seeing the forest for the trees. 

That's like saying after a loss, "Well, if you look at the stats, we really won. We had more hits, better bat on ball percentage, and less strike outs, so I think we should count this as a win."  That's ridiculous. The win is what matters. For a closer, all that matters is the save, and Colome saves more games at a higher percentage than Hendricks. And let me quote the first guy in italics up above, "it isn't even particularly close". Comparing Colome to the Hendriks (looking at only past performance the last two years) Hendricks will loss two or three saves next year that Colome would have kept. But that's okay; we don't need those couple wins, we'll just admire Hendrik's babip and strike out rate. 

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6 minutes ago, manbearpuig said:

Honestly, I would still look into McGee, Bradley, heck even check the price of Colome and Hand (off the top of my head, there could be other good options too). Just make it a huge strength in case you need them to work a lot with question marks in the 4 and 5 spots.

Their prices just went up.  If the Sox spend that kind of money on more pitching, it'll be on a quality SP.  Their bullpen is a beast already!

Edited by Rounding_Third

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Just now, vilehoopster said:

Sorry, but this is a bad take.  Colome hasn't even been the most valuable White Sox reliever over the last 2 years, that would be Bummer.  Over the last 2 years Hendriks has been the best reliever in all of baseball and it isn't even particularly close.

We've reached the point of this discussion of comparing save stats as to who is better.   At least it's not ERA comparison.  But still dumb no doubt. 

When a closer comes in, all that matters is the save, save the game for your team. How it was done should not matter at all, not at all. And when you look at who was better at saves, Colome was twice as good as Hendriks, twice as good. Again, indisputable fact: in the last two years, in one more appearance, Hendrick blew TWICE as many games as Colome over the last two years, indisputable fact. Whether he did it with ground out, fly outs, or strikes outs doesn't matter. What matters is saving the win. And again, Hendircks blew twice as many games as Colome over the last two years, and if we're gonna look at other factors, he blew twice as many with a much better defense behind him

The first guy I quoted gives all these stats: babip and strike out rate. That shit doesn't matter if you're blowing the save, twice as many. Looking at babip and missed bats and ignoring who is better at keeping the lead with the game on the line is the ultimate example of not seeing the forest for the trees. 

That's like saying after a loss, "Well, if you look at the stats, we really won. We had more hits, better bat on ball percentage, and less strike outs, so I think we should count this as a win."  That's ridiculous. The win is what matters. For a closer, all that matters is the save, and Colome saves more games at a higher percentage than Hendricks. And let me quote the first guy in italics up above, "it isn't even particularly close". Comparing Colome to the Hendriks (looking at only past performance the last two years) Hendricks will loss two or three saves next year that Colome would have kept. But that's okay; we don't need those couple wins, we'll just admire Hendrik's babip and strike out rate. 

This is just not true. There are plenty of external factors that contribute to the discussion and simply stating "all that matters is the saves" is purely tunnel vision.

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2 minutes ago, Rounding_Third said:

Their prices just went up.  If the Sox spend that kind of money, it'll be on a quality SP.  Their bullpen is a beast already!

Then go with a lesser option. There's no reason they couldn't sign a cheaper but good option AND a back-end starter still. Someone posted in one of these threads their payroll is at about $120 mill for next season.

Edited by manbearpuig

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2 minutes ago, manbearpuig said:

Then go with a lesser option. There's no reason they couldn't sign a cheaper but good option AND a back-end starter. Someone posted in one of these threads their payroll is at about $120 mill for next season.

its close/over $130 now and they also need a LH DH and probably a backup C.

Edited by Rounding_Third

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1 minute ago, Rounding_Third said:

its close/over $130 now and they also need a LH DH and probably a backup C.

To do it right, they need to exceed that $140m barrier by a few $m.

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Hello everyone!  I just found the board a couple of weeks ago and this is my first post.  I'm from Southern Illinois and I am primarily a St. Louis Cardinals fan, but I've always liked the White Sox as well.  Being from Illinois is part of that, as is my disdain for the Cubs 😁

Anyway, I am honestly more excited to watch the Sox this year than the Cardinals.  It's nice to see a team seeing their division weakening and then making additions to the roster to make themselves dominant.  I just wanted to say hello to everyone and share my excitement to really root on the White Sox this year.  As a noob I won't agree or disagree with anyone's take on these signings, but again, it's nice to see a team that appears to be trying.  Hendriks seems like a good add to me!

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3 minutes ago, Holes in my Sox said:

Hello everyone!  I just found the board a couple of weeks ago and this is my first post.  I'm from Southern Illinois and I am primarily a St. Louis Cardinals fan, but I've always liked the White Sox as well.  Being from Illinois is part of that, as is my disdain for the Cubs 😁

Anyway, I am honestly more excited to watch the Sox this year than the Cardinals.  It's nice to see a team seeing their division weakening and then making additions to the roster to make themselves dominant.  I just wanted to say hello to everyone and share my excitement to really root on the White Sox this year.  As a noob I won't agree or disagree with anyone's take on these signings, but again, it's nice to see a team that appears to be trying.  Hendriks seems like a good add to me!

welcome to the board

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5 minutes ago, Holes in my Sox said:

Hello everyone!  I just found the board a couple of weeks ago and this is my first post.  I'm from Southern Illinois and I am primarily a St. Louis Cardinals fan, but I've always liked the White Sox as well.  Being from Illinois is part of that, as is my disdain for the Cubs 😁

Anyway, I am honestly more excited to watch the Sox this year than the Cardinals.  It's nice to see a team seeing their division weakening and then making additions to the roster to make themselves dominant.  I just wanted to say hello to everyone and share my excitement to really root on the White Sox this year.  As a noob I won't agree or disagree with anyone's take on these signings, but again, it's nice to see a team that appears to be trying.  Hendriks seems like a good add to me!

This was actually a damn good post.
 

Welcome to Soxtalk!

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Presumably, Most of the buyout would be paid out by the next owner. Have to think Jerry knew that when agreeing to the deal 

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18 minutes ago, RagahRagah said:

This is just not true. There are plenty of external factors that contribute to the discussion and simply stating "all that matters is the saves" is purely tunnel vision.

All that matters is winning the game. 

And winning the division

And winning the playoffs

And winning the World Series

That's the kind of vision I like to tunnel in on: and that starts with saving the most games with the highest percentage so you win the most games. 

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19 minutes ago, vilehoopster said:

Sorry, but this is a bad take.  Colome hasn't even been the most valuable White Sox reliever over the last 2 years, that would be Bummer.  Over the last 2 years Hendriks has been the best reliever in all of baseball and it isn't even particularly close.

We've reached the point of this discussion of comparing save stats as to who is better.   At least it's not ERA comparison.  But still dumb no doubt. 

When a closer comes in, all that matters is the save, save the game for your team. How it was done should not matter at all, not at all. And when you look at who was better at saves, Colome was twice as good as Hendriks, twice as good. Again, indisputable fact: in the last two years, in one more appearance, Hendrick blew TWICE as many games as Colome over the last two years, indisputable fact. Whether he did it with ground out, fly outs, or strikes outs doesn't matter. What matters is saving the win. And again, Hendircks blew twice as many games as Colome over the last two years, and if we're gonna look at other factors, he blew twice as many with a much better defense behind him

The first guy I quoted gives all these stats: babip and strike out rate. That shit doesn't matter if you're blowing the save, twice as many. Looking at babip and missed bats and ignoring who is better at keeping the lead with the game on the line is the ultimate example of not seeing the forest for the trees. 

That's like saying after a loss, "Well, if you look at the stats, we really won. We had more hits, better bat on ball percentage, and less strike outs, so I think we should count this as a win."  That's ridiculous. The win is what matters. For a closer, all that matters is the save, and Colome saves more games at a higher percentage than Hendricks. And let me quote the first guy in italics up above, "it isn't even particularly close". Comparing Colome to the Hendriks (looking at only past performance the last two years) Hendricks will loss two or three saves next year that Colome would have kept. But that's okay; we don't need those couple wins, we'll just admire Hendrik's babip and strike out rate. 

But you're making a decision about which player to use in games that haven't been played yet, and those stats you discount are predictive of future results.  This backward-looking, one-factor approach is simplistic. 

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