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EvilJester99

Sox sign Hendriks: 3/$39M - 4th year optional with $15M buyout

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58 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Colome isn't throwing 50 pitches or getting a 3 inning save in the playoffs. Hendriks did both during the last postseason. 

This is a great take.

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14 minutes ago, Holes in my Sox said:

Hello everyone!  I just found the board a couple of weeks ago and this is my first post.  I'm from Southern Illinois and I am primarily a St. Louis Cardinals fan, but I've always liked the White Sox as well.  Being from Illinois is part of that, as is my disdain for the Cubs 😁

Anyway, I am honestly more excited to watch the Sox this year than the Cardinals.  It's nice to see a team seeing their division weakening and then making additions to the roster to make themselves dominant.  I just wanted to say hello to everyone and share my excitement to really root on the White Sox this year.  As a noob I won't agree or disagree with anyone's take on these signings, but again, it's nice to see a team that appears to be trying.  Hendriks seems like a good add to me!

Welcome to Soxtalk!

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13 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

But you're making a decision about which player to use in games that haven't been played yet, and those stats you discount are predictive of future results.  This backward-looking, one-factor approach is simplistic. 

Isn't save percentage far and away  a better measure of success, the most important stat to look at? With a football game on the line next year, do you want a field-goal kicker who makes 95% of his kicks over the last two years or the one who has only made 90% of his kicks the last two years?  

You're saying you want the one that makes 90% of his kicks because he has a better left-foot placement percentage or because he has a better spin of the ball off the holders finger rate. 

I'm saying those other stats don't matter. What matters is how often the ball goes through the uprights. And for a closer, babip and velocity and k-rates don't matter. What matters is who is most likely to walk off the field with a win. And Hendricks is twice as likely to not be that guy as Colome.   

Edited by vilehoopster
I left out a word
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10 minutes ago, daa84 said:

Presumably, Most of the buyout would be paid out by the next owner. Have to think Jerry knew that when agreeing to the deal 

1.5 million a year will be like one book tour for Obama

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26 minutes ago, vilehoopster said:

Sorry, but this is a bad take.  Colome hasn't even been the most valuable White Sox reliever over the last 2 years, that would be Bummer.  Over the last 2 years Hendriks has been the best reliever in all of baseball and it isn't even particularly close.

We've reached the point of this discussion of comparing save stats as to who is better.   At least it's not ERA comparison.  But still dumb no doubt. 

When a closer comes in, all that matters is the save, save the game for your team. How it was done should not matter at all, not at all. And when you look at who was better at saves, Colome was twice as good as Hendriks, twice as good. Again, indisputable fact: in the last two years, in one more appearance, Hendrick blew TWICE as many games as Colome over the last two years, indisputable fact. Whether he did it with ground out, fly outs, or strikes outs doesn't matter. What matters is saving the win. And again, Hendircks blew twice as many games as Colome over the last two years, and if we're gonna look at other factors, he blew twice as many with a much better defense behind him

The first guy I quoted gives all these stats: babip and strike out rate. That shit doesn't matter if you're blowing the save, twice as many. Looking at babip and missed bats and ignoring who is better at keeping the lead with the game on the line is the ultimate example of not seeing the forest for the trees. 

That's like saying after a loss, "Well, if you look at the stats, we really won. We had more hits, better bat on ball percentage, and less strike outs, so I think we should count this as a win."  That's ridiculous. The win is what matters. For a closer, all that matters is the save, and Colome saves more games at a higher percentage than Hendricks. And let me quote the first guy in italics up above, "it isn't even particularly close". Comparing Colome to the Hendriks (looking at only past performance the last two years) Hendricks will loss two or three saves next year that Colome would have kept. But that's okay; we don't need those couple wins, we'll just admire Hendrik's babip and strike out rate. 

Looked deeper into the blown saves.

2 of those blown saves were as an 8th inning or earlier guy not as a closer.  He became the A's closer in June of 2019.  So that knocks it down to 6 blown saves as a closer vs 4 for Colome.  This was also a brand new role for him moving from 7th/8th inning to 9th inning.  3 of those 6 blown saves happened within his month of being a closer in July over a 3 game stretch looking at the game log, one of those being a multiple inning affair.  Taking out a single stat in isolation without the full picture is why it is a bad take.  Looking at the full body of work over 2 years in which he was clearly the best RP in all of baseball is a clearer look at Hendriks vs. Colome as a closer.

For reference Hendriks game log from 2019:

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/player/gamelogs/2019/1756629/liam-hendriks

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@Orlando, here's an article about Codify and how Hendriks and Giolito both use it. It's from The Athletic.

Interesting tidbit: Grandal has requested the Codify maps for each pitcher on the Sox staff.

 

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20 minutes ago, Holes in my Sox said:

Hello everyone!  I just found the board a couple of weeks ago and this is my first post.  I'm from Southern Illinois and I am primarily a St. Louis Cardinals fan, but I've always liked the White Sox as well.  Being from Illinois is part of that, as is my disdain for the Cubs 😁

Anyway, I am honestly more excited to watch the Sox this year than the Cardinals.  It's nice to see a team seeing their division weakening and then making additions to the roster to make themselves dominant.  I just wanted to say hello to everyone and share my excitement to really root on the White Sox this year.  As a noob I won't agree or disagree with anyone's take on these signings, but again, it's nice to see a team that appears to be trying.  Hendriks seems like a good add to me!

Welcome! 

Been a longstanding kinship between Sox and Cards fans.  Going back a few years, a couple of times my friends and I had the chance to do a Hawks/Blues road trip and hit a Cards/Cubs game, as well.  Sitting in Busch in Hawks jerseys and Sox hats routing on the Cards was a beautiful thing! 

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Colome isn't throwing 50 pitches or getting a 3 inning save in the playoffs. Hendriks did both during the last postseason. 

Okay, I'll debate this point too. 

1)  Aren't we all saying that with the Sox bullpen this year, this won't ever happen, ever?  Haven't we more or less said that the Sox have tons of outstanding options for the 7th and 8th inning (to the point that we can trade some young guys), so our closer doesn't need to pitch three innings. 

2)  Also, this is just from memory, so give me a break, but didn't Colome in 2019, get four outs against KC for the win or save in the first game and then come back and pitch the 9th for a save in a double header? I pretty sure he did that. To me, that's pretty much the same as what Hendriks did.  

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4 minutes ago, vilehoopster said:

Isn't save percentage of success far and away the most important stat to look at? With a football game on the line next year, do you want a field-goal kicker who makes 95% of his kicks over the last two years or the one who has only made 90% of his kicks the last two years?  

You're saying you want the one that makes 90% of his kicks because he has a better left-foot placement percentage or because he has a better spin of the ball off the holders finger rate. 

I'm saying those other stats don't matter. What matters is how often the ball goes through the uprights. And for a closer, babip and velocity and k-rates don't matter. What matters is who is most likely to walk off the field with a win. And Hendricks is twice as likely to not be that guy as Colome.   

Sure, but the problem is that save percentage isn't really all up to the closer.  If a closer comes in with a runner at second and then an error happens to let the run score, that is a blown save.  How closers are used really matters in how their save percentages look.  If you want a football example, would you hold blocked kicks due to a horrible offensive line against a kicker?

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2 minutes ago, Quin said:

@Orlando, here's an article about Codify and how Hendriks and Giolito both use it. It's from The Athletic.

Interesting tidbit: Grandal has requested the Codify maps for each pitcher on the Sox staff.

 

I like apples.

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Just now, hi8is said:

I like apples.

You're the Chef Brian of our board.

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Looked deeper into the blown saves.

2 of those blown saves were as an 8th inning or earlier guy not as a closer.  He became the A's closer in June of 2019.  So that knocks it down to 6 blown saves as a closer vs 4 for Colome.  This was also a brand new role for him moving from 7th/8th inning to 9th inning.  3 of those 6 blown saves happened within his month of being a closer in July over a 3 game stretch looking at the game log, one of those being a multiple inning affair.  Taking out a single stat in isolation without the full picture is why it is a bad take.  Looking at the full body of work over 2 years in which he was clearly the best RP in all of baseball is a clearer look at Hendriks vs. Colome as a closer.

An appearance is an appearance; a blown save is a blown save. What does it matter if it's in the 8th or the 9th inning. If anything, there's less pressure in the 8th inning. 

Going back to my field goal kicker analogy: you're saying that because you're field goal kicker missed his field goals in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, they are somehow less important to the stat of field goal percentage??

And if we're gonna look closer at each blown save, remember again, Hendriks had a better defense behind him. Colome's only blown save from last year was when Grandal let the ball go through his legs while he was looking over at the dugout. I think looking closer at blown saves only helps my argument. 

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12 minutes ago, vilehoopster said:

Colome isn't throwing 50 pitches or getting a 3 inning save in the playoffs. Hendriks did both during the last postseason. 

Okay, I'll debate this point too. 

1)  Aren't we all saying that with the Sox bullpen this year, this won't ever happen, ever?  Haven't we more or less said that the Sox have tons of outstanding options for the 7th and 8th inning (to the point that we can trade some young guys), so our closer doesn't need to pitch three innings. 

2)  Also, this is just from memory, so give me a break, but didn't Colome in 2019, get four outs against KC for the win or save in the first game and then come back and pitch the 9th for a save in a double header? I pretty sure he did that. To me, that's pretty much the same as what Hendriks did.  

You expect our bullpen to stay completely healthy and our starters to go 6 innings in the playoffs?

 

I don't trust your memory, so I'll just assume the 2nd half of your post is incorrect. Either way, it's the royals, lol. 

Edited by ron883

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2 minutes ago, vilehoopster said:

Looked deeper into the blown saves.

2 of those blown saves were as an 8th inning or earlier guy not as a closer.  He became the A's closer in June of 2019.  So that knocks it down to 6 blown saves as a closer vs 4 for Colome.  This was also a brand new role for him moving from 7th/8th inning to 9th inning.  3 of those 6 blown saves happened within his month of being a closer in July over a 3 game stretch looking at the game log, one of those being a multiple inning affair.  Taking out a single stat in isolation without the full picture is why it is a bad take.  Looking at the full body of work over 2 years in which he was clearly the best RP in all of baseball is a clearer look at Hendriks vs. Colome as a closer.

An appearance is an appearance; a blown save is a blown save. What does it matter if it's in the 8th or the 9th inning. If anything, there's less pressure in the 8th inning. 

Going back to my field goal kicker analogy: you're saying that because you're field goal kicker missed his field goals in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, they are somehow less important to the stat of field goal percentage??

And if we're gonna look closer at each blown save, remember again, Hendriks had a better defense behind him. Colome's only blown save from last year was when Grandal let the ball go through his legs while he was looking over at the dugout. I think looking closer at blown saves only helps my argument. 

The problem is, if you aren't a closer, you don't get a chance to get saves, only to blow them, which skews the stats.

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8 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Sure, but the problem is that save percentage isn't really all up to the closer.  If a closer comes in with a runner at second and then an error happens to let the run score, that is a blown save.  How closers are used really matters in how their save percentages look.  If you want a football example, would you hold blocked kicks due to a horrible offensive line against a kicker?

Again, a good point, but the defense behind Hendriks the last two years was better than the defense behind Colome. Think about the outfield defense Colome had in 2019 compared to the outfield Hendricks had that year. 

Also, something like blocked kicks or errors in baseball, over two seasons (even a shortened season) somewhat even outs or if not, comes down in Hendriks favor. 

Again, did Hendriks have twice as many of his field goals blocked, because he blew twice as many saves. 

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10 minutes ago, Quin said:

You're the Chef Brian of our board.

It haz chees!

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1 minute ago, ron883 said:

You expect our bullpen to stay completely healthy and our starters to go 6 innings in the playoffs?

Do you expect Hendriks to stay healthy?  If you're gonna use that argument, one is a valid as the other. 

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1 minute ago, vilehoopster said:

Do you expect Hendriks to stay healthy?  If you're gonna use that argument, one is a valid as the other. 

Considering we already know the problems that Colome is having with his shoulder, I think the expectation that Hendriks stays healthier than Colome is a safe bet.

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2 minutes ago, vilehoopster said:

Again, a good point, but the defense behind Hendriks the last two years was better than the defense behind Colome. Think about the outfield defense Colome had in 2019 compared to the outfield Hendricks had that year. 

Also, something like blocked kicks or errors in baseball, over two seasons (even a shortened season) somewhat even outs or if not, comes down in Hendriks favor. 

Again, did Hendriks have twice as many of his field goals blocked, because he blew twice as many saves. 

But since we are talking about blown saves in middle relief time, we aren't comparing apples to apples.

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3 minutes ago, vilehoopster said:

Do you expect Hendriks to stay healthy?  If you're gonna use that argument, one is a valid as the other. 

I'm assuming somebody blows up or gets injured. You're assuming starters go 6 innings in the playoffs and we have shutdown guys in the 7th and 8th - no injuries. That's not how playoff baseball goes. 

Edited by ron883

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19 minutes ago, fathom said:

1.5 million a year will be like one book tour for Obama

He can finally name the stadium Kaminsky Field as he loves to call it.

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3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The problem is, if you aren't a closer, you don't get a chance to get saves, only to blow them, which skews the stats.

This is a good point. I cannot think of a counter to this arguement/ point. You have me. 

Coming in without the opportunity for the save (but still get the loss), does show why the save percentage might skew in Colome's favor. 

A good point. You have me on this one. 

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1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

They have had a roster crunch going on for a while now, and are also running into issues with players running out of options.  It would be interesting to see if we put together a volume type of deal to free up some slots.

I think it could happen. I've been mentioning a lot of guys in the last few weeks knowing this was coming. Zavala, Sheets, Rutherford, Gonzalez, Adolpho, Cordero, Bernardo Flores,Tyler Johnson,Jimmy Lambert, Burger, Mercedes, Mendick, Burdi and don't forget the Sox picked up Emilio Vargas in November and he appears to be on the 40.

That's 14 guys I named and didn't include some obvious trade bait like Collins and Reynaldo Lopez.

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1 hour ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

Right, and I don't disagree -- I like the move and I'll take Hendriks over Colome any day of the week.  But we're replacing (hopefully upgrading) what was already a position of historical strength.  Just don't think it improves our baseline level of team quality as much as, say, replacing a back-end starter, DH, or RF with an above-average player.  

I think of it like we had to pay to keep it a strength.

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1 minute ago, vilehoopster said:

This is a good point. I cannot think of a counter to this arguement/ point. You have me. 

Coming in without the opportunity for the save (but still get the loss), does show why the save percentage might skew in Colome's favor. 

A good point. You have me on this one. 

I know this comment wasn't directed at me, but for the record..I personally wasn't trying to gang up on you, I just think that Blown Save is a flawed stat especially when you start to include players that are pitching not in 9th inning and like southsider2k5 mentioned, not all save oppts are the same.  I would also not worry about defense with Hendriks as much as I would with Colome because Hendriks strikes out nearly 2x the number of batters.  Hendriks 12.09 K/9 career (13 K/9 last year) vs Colome 8 K/9 career (6.45 K/9 last year).  Colome does a lot with smoke and mirrors which is just harder to count on over a long term vs a pitcher that misses a ton more bats.  Hendriks is a big risk given his age, but as long as it doesn't preclude the Sox from making additional moves this is a plus addition, not a minus.

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