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Garrett Richards to Boston, 1 year $10 million.

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Usually I can be warmed up into any signing.. But so far no one has convinced me on Richards.  Sure, he has some potential still.  But it also is clear he hasn't pitched more than 70ish innings since 2015.. That's 5 years ago.  This appears to be a trend more than a fluke..  This is the opposite guy we need as our filler.  We need someone to take innings.

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4 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Usually I can be warmed up into any signing.. But so far no one has convinced me on Richards.  Sure, he has some potential still.  But it also is clear he hasn't pitched more than 70ish innings since 2015.. That's 5 years ago.  This appears to be a trend more than a fluke..  This is the opposite guy we need as our filler.  We need someone to take innings.

This is how I'd convince you: 

If both Cease and Kopech are good, you move Richards to the bullpen and you have yet another power arm coming out of it. 

Q as a bullpen guy is nothing but a long reliever. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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Just now, Jack Parkman said:

This is how I'd convince you: 

If both Cease and Kopech are good, you move Richards to the bullpen and you have yet another power arm coming out of it. 

This didn't convince me one bit.  Because Kopech won't pitch until July if lucky.  And I don't want to count on both being good right away.  Also.. this doesn't mention his likelihood of being hurt,

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2 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

This didn't convince me one bit.  Because Kopech won't pitch until July if lucky.  And I don't want to count on both being good right away.  Also.. this doesn't mention his likelihood of being hurt,

Agreed on Richards, too much medical stress on that arm over 5 years.  Has a reasonable chance to be DL'ed by June.  Not a good way to spend $10m, too risky with so many other options available.

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1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

I think the way around that, honestly is to make the 5th year a  mutual option or a team option similar to the one that Hendriks signed. Player and Team have to agree on a mutual. Mutual options are a good compromise between team and player options. That's how I'd negotiate it at least. Either party has the right to terminate, the Sox get the extra year at least. I don't think the Sox would accept a deal with the 5th year being a high dollar amount unless it was a team or mutual. I'd advise the player to assume it's a 4 year deal until it isn't financially. 

I can't imagine the chain of events that would have to happen to make a 1 year and $25 million or so option make sense to both the team and the player. It basically wouldn't be worth the ink used to print that part of the contract. But, if someone in the chain of people who had to agree to the contract thought "that's a brilliant idea!" and that got them on board, so be it.

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1 hour ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

This didn't convince me one bit.  Because Kopech won't pitch until July if lucky.  And I don't want to count on both being good right away.  Also.. this doesn't mention his likelihood of being hurt,

Mind you, I still prefer Quintana, but I'll give it a shot. 

Richards has a far higher ceiling than Quintana. Last year, many of his numbers were back to where they were when he was starting for the Angels. His fastball velocity is still hanging out at 95, his K rate was comparable, his walk rate was strong, his ERA was hurt a little bit by a higher fly ball and home run rate. It's entirely plausible that he's fully recovered from a multi-year injury and could be a real comeback player of the year candidate. 

As summarized here, there's also reason to believe that if he were given a chance to develop and pitch a full season with a modern pitching coach, he could gain additional effectiveness on his pitches. https://metsmerizedonline.com/2020/11/mmo-free-agent-profile-garrett-richards-rhp.html

If Quintana were starting a playoff game, in general that would mean something bad happened, he should be a worse option than some of the other guys in this org. However, Richards could possibly be a guy that breaks out again this season and becomes a real strong pitcher on that pitching staff.

It's reliability vs. risk + possible reward. 

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What about Tanaka? He is only looking for a 1 year contract,  and KW wanted him badly when he first came to the US.

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1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

What about Tanaka? He is only looking for a 1 year contract,  and KW wanted him badly when he first came to the US.

Has he changed his demands?  I thought he was looking for a multi-year deal and was hinting he’d go back to Japan if not offered one here.

Edited by Chicago White Sox

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2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Has he changed his demands?  I thought he was looking for a multi-year deal and was hinting he’d go back to Japan if not offered one here.

He's apparently looking for 1/$15 mill. If that backend starter is looking for $10 mill, I'd rather they just spent a little extra money on Tanaka.

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Not sure why they are even considering someone that is chronically injured. Go for Q instead - assuming he's healthy now. 

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3 minutes ago, manbearpuig said:

He's apparently looking for 1/$15 mill. If that backend starter is looking for $10 mill, I'd rather they just spent a little extra money on Tanaka.

Thanks.  Not sure if it was you, but I apologize to whoever I told Tanaka wouldn’t accept a one year deal.  Clearly I was wrong on that.

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Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

Thanks.  Not sure if it was you, but I apologize to whoever I told Tanaka wouldn’t accept a one year deal.  Clearly I was wrong on that.

I think it was me haha but it's all good. No need to apologize. 

I think he was considering Japan, but I don't think it was ever Yankees or Japan.

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2 hours ago, manbearpuig said:

He's apparently looking for 1/$15 mill. If that backend starter is looking for $10 mill, I'd rather they just spent a little extra money on Tanaka.

This would be perfect for the situation the Sox are in.

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After going through a bunch of names, it's become clear to me who the Sox should target; Mike Leake, with the caveat that he can be gotten for <$10 this year and/or even in a  2-3 deal.   2 + 1 maybe?

He has incredible consistency and durability his entire career with virtually no injuries whatsoever and none with his arm.

His last 3 years (opt out 2020) are a reflection of his entire career.

year    era   starts   >=6 inn   % >=6   >=7   <5

2017  3.92   31           22          71%      10     4

2018  4.36   31           22          71%        9     3

2019  4.29   32           23          72%        9     1   

Basically he goes 6 and gives up <=3 ER 70% of his starts.  He does that with this BO, could easily win 15.

He should probably have his own thread.

Edited by Rounding_Third

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22 minutes ago, Rounding_Third said:

After going through a bunch of names, it's become clear to me who the Sox should target; Mike Leake, with the caveat that he can be gotten for <$10 this year and/or even in a  2-3 deal.   2 + 1 maybe?

He has incredible consistency and durability his entire career with virtually no injuries whatsoever and none with his arm.

His last 3 years (opt out 2020) are a reflection of his entire career.

year    era   starts   >=6 inn   % >=6   >=7   <5

2017  3.92   31           22          71%      10     4

2018  4.36   31           22          71%        9     3

2019  4.29   32           23          72%        9     1   

Basically he goes 6 and gives up <=3 ER 70% of his starts.  He does that with this BO, could easily win 15.

He should probably have his own thread.

I forgot about him but then someone brought him up.  I think he is a guy we would be happy with.  Always healthy, and can give some innings.  I am warming up to him.  Just a feeling he could be had for 6 million or so.  Cheaper than Quintana.

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I am now on the Mike Leake banwagon. Fully aboard.  He seems like the perfect get at this point, and exactly what our staff needs.  Innings, and health, and more innings and health..  Obviously I wanted someone better, but that time has gone.

Edited by Squirmin' for Yermin

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Mike Leake would be an absolute abomination of a signing.  He is literally one of the worst starters when it comes to Statcast numbers and basically strikes no one out.  How anyone would prefer him over Richards is mind boggling to me.

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If Richards isn't signing here, I want Archer or Walker. If those guys are out of the Sox price range, just save the money and roll with Lopez.

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2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

If Richards isn't signing here, I want Archer or Walker. If those guys are out of the Sox price range, just save the money and roll with Lopez.

Hell no, you can’t go into the season relying on Lopez.  That’s how you get into a situation where Drew Anderson is starting a game for you a month into the season.  Sox currently are nowhere close to having the depth they’re going to need for a 162 game season.  

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28 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I forgot about him but then someone brought him up.  I think he is a guy we would be happy with.  Always healthy, and can give some innings.  I am warming up to him.  Just a feeling he could be had for 6 million or so.  Cheaper than Quintana.

Same for me.  When he was mentioned, I just glossed over his career, liked it, but said just  a comment or two.  Last night dug deeper and he blew me away with his 6+ inning consistency. 

He's a bullpen saver.  Just quietly gets the job done. 

I can see scenarios when he throws 6 or 7 innings ( a lot),  Sox have a 5 run lead, and let Kopech finish the last 2 or 3 innings.   

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3 minutes ago, Rounding_Third said:

Same for me.  When he was mentioned, I just glossed over his career, liked it, but said just  a comment or two.  Last night dug deeper and he blew me away with his 6+ inning consistency. 

He's a bullpen saver.  Just quietly gets the job done. 

I can see scenarios when he throws 6 or 7 innings ( a lot),  Sox have a 5 run lead, and let Kopech finish the last 2 or 3 innings.   

Kopech as a reliever now?  Gross all around.

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Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

Kopech as a reliever now?  Gross all around.

Assuming Cease is the 5th starter, how else would you use Kopech?  I believe he would probably be shut down at a certain innings/pitches count, anyway.  As a long reliever/spot starter, he can get his innings.

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