CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said: If what Beef says is true, then we need to sign Cruz ASAP before he gets a market. He is the last player left in our thrift shopping range that can have a huge impact on us winning a title this year. Let's not just let things fall in our lap. Speaking of winning a title , there's another aspect to the universal DH . If the DH becomes AL only that would mean in the World Series the DH would only be used in when the AL is the home team so home field advantage would be more important if the Sox signed him . Of course that means the Sox would also need to have the best record in baseball which seems unlikely even with Cruz. They would lose a big part of their offense in games without the DH during inter-league play on the road also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonofaRoache Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, bmags said: There's no doubt. But I'll defend chw42 here. When you get to end of careers, players don't always gradually slow down as much as fall off a cliff. Nelson cruz was the most insane hitter in baseball last year. But his k% has gone up three straight years. He had just 6 doubles compared to his 16 home runs. I'm not going to say Cruz won't be awesome, but we saw Paul Konerko go from 30% better than average as a hitter to 20% worse once season later, and then another 20% worse the next year. I understand the argument here. My point is that we shouldn't use EE's decline as a barometer because Cruz has outplayed him the last 5 years. Cruz may fall off of a cliff, but it is worth it for us to sign him. We have money, Vaughn can replace him if bad, and there are no signs of him having an OPS lower than. 850. The potential reward far outweighs the risk. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, bmags said: There's no doubt. But I'll defend chw42 here. When you get to end of careers, players don't always gradually slow down as much as fall off a cliff. Nelson cruz was the most insane hitter in baseball last year. But his k% has gone up three straight years. He had just 6 doubles compared to his 16 home runs. I'm not going to say Cruz won't be awesome, but we saw Paul Konerko go from 30% better than average as a hitter to 20% worse once season later, and then another 20% worse the next year. The fall of power hitting first basemen/DH types is never pretty. EE's decline was just like Konerko's. He went from being a 30% better than average hitter to being 30% below average in the span of a year. I don't think it's unreasonable as to why Cruz's market is so low. Nobody really wants to commit more than a year to him just in case he falls off a cliff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonofaRoache Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said: Speaking of winning a title , there's another aspect to the universal DH . If the DH becomes AL only that would mean in the World Series the DH would only be used in when the AL is the home team so home field advantage would be more important if the Sox signed him . Of course that means the Sox would also need to have the best record in baseball which seems unlikely even with Cruz. They would lose a big part of their offense in games without the DH during inter-league play on the road also. But this will happen anyway. If Vaughn is up and is a stud, we would still lose his bat, or Abreu's bat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 15 minutes ago, chw42 said: After the Encarnacion debacle last year, where there were some clear warning signs of decline in the playoffs the year before and spring training with him, I'm a bit hesitant to think that Cruz will put up his usual .900+ OPS statline. He kind of struggled down the stretch (at least for his standards) and only had a .355 wOBA in the 2nd half of the season last year after he started out hot. I don't think he'll be anywhere near as bad as EE was last year, but there could be a very real decline from the .400 wOBAs he's put up the past 2 years. I would be more inclined to think this is a factor if the season wasn't 60 games long. Given the whole of the season his offensive numbers were on par with Jose Ramirez and Mike Trout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 7 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said: Speaking of winning a title , there's another aspect to the universal DH . If the DH becomes AL only that would mean in the World Series the DH would only be used in when the AL is the home team so home field advantage would be more important if the Sox signed him . Of course that means the Sox would also need to have the best record in baseball which seems unlikely even with Cruz. They would lose a big part of their offense in games without the DH during inter-league play on the road also. I think this is one of those issues where we think about it when we get there. Because you gotta make sure you get there first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWSpalehoseCWS Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 14 minutes ago, HOFHurt35 said: The Cruz decline, if you want to call it that, is nowhere close to the Encarnacion warning signs. If Cruz provides a steady .850 OPS, he's worth $8-10 million for me. While this is true, I can’t help but recall Jermaine Dye and how his final year ended. He completely fell off a cliff in the second half. There’s no way to know for sure, but it can happen to anyone. Same goes for Cruz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said: But this will happen anyway. If Vaughn is up and is a stud, we would still lose his bat, or Abreu's bat. It won't happen if there is a universal DH and the difference between knowing Cruz is a stud and expecting Vaughn to be one are 2 very different things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
35thstreetswarm Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 13 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said: If you put EE's and Cruz's seasons from 2016-2020 together and rank them, making ten seasons, the top 5 seasons likely go to Cruz. If you ask EE and Cruz next to stand next to each other, then you bake a cake, then you write "better player" on the cake in frosting, then choose the better player, then give that person the cake, Nelson Cruz would receive aforementioned cake 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonofaRoache Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said: While this is true, I can’t help but recall Jermaine Dye and how his final year ended. He completely fell off a cliff in the second half. There’s no way to know for sure, but it can happen to anyone. Same goes for Cruz. I wouldn't say Dye fell of a cliff. His last year so a drop, but it wasn't crazy. The difference between Konerko, Dye, and EE, is that if Cruz falls off a cliff you just call up your stud rookie DH and give him a shot. The team would also have enough talent this time around to get around it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
35thstreetswarm Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 8 minutes ago, chw42 said: The fall of power hitting first basemen/DH types is never pretty. EE's decline was just like Konerko's. He went from being a 30% better than average hitter to being 30% below average in the span of a year. I don't think it's unreasonable as to why Cruz's market is so low. Nobody really wants to commit more than a year to him just in case he falls off a cliff. The nice thing about our situation is we have Vaughn waiting in the wings. We also have a stacked lineup. The risk is significantly mitigated by these factors; we won't rise or fall with Cruz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, chw42 said: I think this is one of those issues where we think about it when we get there. Because you gotta make sure you get there first. But from Cruz' perspective it really hurts his ability to contribute perhaps as much as he would like to ,not to mention limiting his market. He should wait as long as he can unless he's got a $15M offer out there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWSpalehoseCWS Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said: I wouldn't say Dye fell of a cliff. His last year so a drop, but it wasn't crazy. The difference between Konerko, Dye, and EE, is that if Cruz falls off a cliff you just call up your stud rookie DH and give him a shot. The team would also have enough talent this time around to get around it. Dude, look at his monthly stats. Dye plummeted. His amazing 1st half saved his 2009 stat line. I’m not saying it’s a reason to choose to not sign Cruz, but it totally is not out of the realm of possibility. Adding him totally makes the team better on paper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orlando Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 (edited) Weird that Vinnie reposted this a few hours before the universal DH stuff leaked Edited January 25, 2021 by Orlando Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 23 minutes ago, bmags said: There's no doubt. But I'll defend chw42 here. When you get to end of careers, players don't always gradually slow down as much as fall off a cliff. Nelson cruz was the most insane hitter in baseball last year. But his k% has gone up three straight years. He had just 6 doubles compared to his 16 home runs. I'm not going to say Cruz won't be awesome, but we saw Paul Konerko go from 30% better than average as a hitter to 20% worse once season later, and then another 20% worse the next year. Maybe he is just taking more called 3rd strikes. I don't no where to find that info. Many of his offensive stats are near career highs the last 2 years . It might just be more selective at what he is swinging at . Maybe he is using his knowledge of hitting to outguess pitchers or zone in on pitch location or using the count to a greater advantage which could also explain his very high walk percentages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whisox05 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 (edited) Not sure what this means Edited January 25, 2021 by aeichhor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted January 25, 2021 Author Share Posted January 25, 2021 (edited) 1 minute ago, aeichhor said: Not sure what this means When Twins stole Thome from Sox....but the opposite Edited January 25, 2021 by fathom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, fathom said: When Twins stole Thome from Sox....but the opposite or the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saufley Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, aeichhor said: Not sure what this means Heaven help us if he is our new DH Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flavum Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 But the Sox traded Thome to the Dodgers. Anyway...how about a real move instead of wannabe reporters trying to get their jollies? 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kleedawg Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 32 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said: I wouldn't say Dye fell of a cliff. His last year so a drop, but it wasn't crazy. The difference between Konerko, Dye, and EE, is that if Cruz falls off a cliff you just call up your stud rookie DH and give him a shot. The team would also have enough talent this time around to get around it. Regarding Dye's last season. The first half the sox were wondering if they could find the money to extend. After the second half they had no intention of extending him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 12 minutes ago, flavum said: But the Sox traded Thome to the Dodgers. Anyway...how about a real move instead of wannabe reporters trying to get their jollies? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 12 minutes ago, flavum said: But the Sox traded Thome to the Dodgers. Anyway...how about a real move instead of wannabe reporters trying to get their jollies? Yes but during the next offseason the Sox were going to sign him for a song, but Ozzie wanted a rotating DH instead of a HOFer. So the Sox got Kotsay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poppysox Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 34 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said: While this is true, I can’t help but recall Jermaine Dye and how his final year ended. He completely fell off a cliff in the second half. There’s no way to know for sure, but it can happen to anyone. Same goes for Cruz. I don't want to watch that act again. EE, Dunn, LaRoche, Dye, and Konerko are enough experiences to teach me that lesson. When these sluggers go downhill they go fast. I would rather watch Vaughn struggle a bit while improving over time. I prefer using Yermin until Vaughn is ready. Spend the money on starting pitching. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, poppysox said: I don't want to watch that act again. EE, Dunn, LaRoche, Dye, and Konerko are enough experiences to teach me that lesson. When these sluggers go downhill they go fast. I would rather watch Vaughn struggle a bit while improving over time. I prefer using Yermin until Vaughn is ready. Spend the money on starting pitching. I...agree. Feels weird Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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