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the Corbin Burnes thread **on ice***

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Just now, Balta1701 said:

If the White Sox have confidence that a guy can get through June,  then he can swap out with Kopech and others. 

I hate that. Puts a lot of pressure for Kopech to come back with zero issues. Plus he’ll be on an innings limit. Just sign a guy with the expectation to stay as the #4 the whole season. If Kopech is ready, he’ll force the issue.

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4 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

If the Sox sign Archer, I’ll throw up. The injury he’s returning has a history of ending pitchers careers. He won’t make it through 162 game season.

There haven't been near enough examples to know this. If he has a workout and looks good and feels good, he's worth a flyer on. He has good upside.

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Just now, Perfect Vision said:

Enough of this.  Let's just sign La Stella, one of Richards or Wainwright, and roll!

I like the idea of Wainwright...except if he looks good, no way TLR goes to Kopech when he is ready. 

They need to do 1of 2 things...Sign or trade for a stud (Kopech is in purgatory or traded) or find a Starter for 3 months (honestly why most would choose another team). Tough place to be. 

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By the way, that kid posted an update. Said the Brewers tried swapping out Stiever for Crochet last minute. I find that hard to believe the Brewers would ever think that's a similar swap in value, but that's your update to this "scoop".

 

 

 

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Just my own thoughts, but to me you dont trade for Burnes - especially at the price being thrown around. Top, top pitchers generally don't middle around in an organization looking for pitching help for multiple years before busting out. He and Freddy Peralta were given opportunities for years to step up and good on Burnes for doing it last year, however to pay the price being asked? No thank you. Based on the rest of the division the Sox should have ample opportunity to repeat their trip to the playoffs based on the current roster. I don't need to mortgage a future to beat the Royals, Indians and Tigers this year. Once youre in the playoffs we've gone ahead and picked up Lynn. So now you have a 3 headed monster & assuming playoffs are back on a normal schedule? With travel day and off-days you can get away with a 3 man rotation + innings from a hot pitcher/young pitcher in Kopech/Crochet/Cease/Stiever/etc. 

You also don't need to rush into anything this offseason - sit back and evaluate your young arms and their progress under Katz. maybe one steps up. maybe none do. maybe 3 do. I'd let this thing play out. You can always go out in June or July and make a trade if you think its necessary, but to rush into one now? just seems risky - especially when you couldve picked up Q on a year deal, or can still go out there and pick up Richards, Rich Hill, Hamels, etc on a 1 year deal. Worst case scenario is Cease or Kopech lose all of their trade value (which are both at all time lows since coming to the Sox anyways) -- best case scenario is those guys look great and you don't need to go trade a Vaughn, Madrigal, Kelley, etc. 

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7 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

I like the idea of Wainwright...except if he looks good, no way TLR goes to Kopech when he is ready. 

They need to do 1of 2 things...Sign or trade for a stud (Kopech is in purgatory or traded) or find a Starter for 3 months (honestly why most would choose another team). Tough place to be. 

I wouldn't worry about this at all. That's a good problem to have. If Kopech forces his way for a promotion he could temporarily pitch out of BP to keep his innings in check. If Cease struggles or Wainwright hits the IR, Kopech could easily jump in. Also 2021 will be a season where most pitchers will be on some sort of inning limit, having an extra starter definitely helps.

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3 minutes ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

By the way, that kid posted an update. Said the Brewers tried swapping out Stiever for Crochet last minute. I find that hard to believe the Brewers would ever think that's a similar swap in value, but that's your update to this "scoop".

 

 

 

I'm shocked. I never saw this post coming. 

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The important thing is we keep posting here regardless forever.

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5 minutes ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

By the way, that kid posted an update. Said the Brewers tried swapping out Stiever for Crochet last minute. I find that hard to believe the Brewers would ever think that's a similar swap in value, but that's your update to this "scoop".

 

 

 

He can go back to /r/elevators and post his rumors there. 

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10 minutes ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

By the way, that kid posted an update. Said the Brewers tried swapping out Stiever for Crochet last minute. I find that hard to believe the Brewers would ever think that's a similar swap in value, but that's your update to this "scoop".

 

 

 

Finally, someone with integrity upholding their own guarantee and or ban bet.

Welchers, take note.

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Actually Madrigal Heuer Stiever Thompson would have been better than I thought (better from our perspective) , certainly you can see RHs reluctance there to give up Kelley which is good. 

MIL had to know there was no way we would agree to Crochet in place of Stiever.  

I dunno who the OFer we were targeting was but maybe they can just drop that part if it would help sweeten the original deal for MIL given Cespedes and also Colas may be on the way soon. 

 

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26 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

I like the idea of Wainwright...except if he looks good, no way TLR goes to Kopech when he is ready. 

They need to do 1of 2 things...Sign or trade for a stud (Kopech is in purgatory or traded) or find a Starter for 3 months (honestly why most would choose another team). Tough place to be. 

Wait, we’re worried about TLR sticking with a pitcher that is pitching well? 

The only way Kopech gets blocked is if all five pitchers stay healthy and pitch well. And I wouldn’t call that a problem. I’d call that a dream scenario. 

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Just now, SoxBlanco said:

Wait, we’re worried about TLR sticking with a pitcher that is pitching well? 

The only way Kopech gets blocked is if all five pitchers stay healthy and pitch well. And I wouldn’t call that a problem. I’d call that a dream scenario. 

Also wouldn't the good news in that scenario be that Cease is pitching well enough not to be bumped AND that everyone is healthy?

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24 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

I wouldn't worry about this at all. That's a good problem to have. If Kopech forces his way for a promotion he could temporarily pitch out of BP to keep his innings in check. If Cease struggles or Wainwright hits the IR, Kopech could easily jump in. Also 2021 will be a season where most pitchers will be on some sort of inning limit, having an extra starter definitely helps.

Exactly. Too many guys throwing the ball well is a good problem to have. Kopech will find his spots (injuries, called up to start a double header game, etc).

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36 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

I like the idea of Wainwright...except if he looks good, no way TLR goes to Kopech when he is ready. 

They need to do 1of 2 things...Sign or trade for a stud (Kopech is in purgatory or traded) or find a Starter for 3 months (honestly why most would choose another team). Tough place to be. 

Wainwright is a guy I am interested in.  He does have the TLR connection, so it could be worth exploring.

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14 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Actually Madrigal Heuer Stiever Thompson would have been better than I thought (better from our perspective) , certainly you can see RHs reluctance there to give up Kelley which is good. 

MIL had to know there was no way we would agree to Crochet in place of Stiever.  

I dunno who the OFer we were targeting was but maybe they can just drop that part if it would help sweeten the original deal for MIL given Cespedes and also Colas may be on the way soon. 

 

That package is a LOT less hurtful to the Sox than other ones which have been talked about.  The pen is loaded, and has guys waiting to join.  Stiever is in a cue behind Kopech, Cease, and probably ReyLo.  Thompson fits into the bucket with Dalquist, Kelley, and Vera.  Vera and Kelley are much more important to the second wave to me, than Thompson is.  This is a smarter deal.

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1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Ok. Time to forget Burnes and get back to debating a Wainwright vs Richards signing.

vs. Archer.   Wainwright is the most stable of the three and is a good leader.  Richards vs Archer is all about upside to me (and maybe $$ difference??).  For my money I gamble on Archer because the upside is quite a bit more.....

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2 minutes ago, Wisebri224 said:

vs. Archer.   Wainwright is the most stable of the three and is a good leader.  Richards vs Archer is all about upside to me (and maybe $$ difference??).  For my money I gamble on Archer because the upside is quite a bit more.....

I wouldn’t mind Archer either if he’s healthy. Would be better than past bottom tier SP signings from a risk/reward perspective.

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Milwaukee was probably reading this site and was like, "Dude, I know we basically agreed on Stiever, but these Soxtalk clowns love Crochet.  Give me the phone.  I gotta call Rick."

Edited by hogan873
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Yeah that makes no sense

First, Crochet would be the centerpiece.  IMO Stiever is the best guy in the other package anyway, but you don't try to swap the centerpiece.  Also Stiever is probably the kind of guy that they wouldn't negotiate out because he's closet to being MLB ready as a SP.  

The biggest upside in the real package is Kelly.  Trying to swap Kelly for Crochet also isn't something they are going to do on an already-agreed-upon deal.

Really I just can't see why they would see Madrigal as a centerpiece in a Burnes deal.  I also don't see why they would see Heuer as a 2nd piece.  That doesn't make a lot of sense.

I think in a realistic deal that doesn't include Crochet, Kopech or Vaughn, they want Kelly's upside first, Stiever's upside and closeness to MLB (and they love him like I do and aren't down on him at all), and they think Madrigal is is the #3 upside guy on here, and Heuer is really a high-quality 4th piece.  So Kelly + Stiever + Madrigal + Heuer in that order basically.  I just really have a hard time thinking any team is really that in love with Madrigal.

I mean I keep seeing this listing of Sox top prospects of Vaughn/Kopech/Crochet/Madrigal in whatever order.  One guy definitely does not belong in that conversation or tier.  And honestly, due to general injury concerns, it's really Kopech and Vaughn in Tier 1, Crochet alone in Tier 2, then Madrigal is in the same Tier with several other guys, and you can like one guy more than another for this or that reason, but Kelly is the top guy in ultimate upside and Madrigal is the top guy in MLB floor.

Of course if the Brewers think (they don't, but let's take the trolley to the Kingdom of Make-Believe) that Madrigal is really a centerpiece in a Burnes deal, then that's terrific.

Edited by YourWhatHurts

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33 minutes ago, almagest said:

Yeah, none of this happened.

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9 minutes ago, hogan873 said:

Milwaukee was probably reading this site and was like, "Dude, I know we basically agreed on Stiever, but these Soxtalk clowns love Crochet.  Give me the phone.  I gotta call Rick."

Their GM is probably every bit in love with whatever projections he's getting from his scouting and analytics departments as anyone else.  There probably isn't much negotiation room available given the overall lack of depth in the Sox org.  If they want to keep out their very best guys, then I think the Sox could maybe make a volume deal, but the Brewers people still have to believe they are getting excellent prospects.

No team wants to deal the best player in the deal, especially when that guy isn't even expensive and is still under control for a long time.  Each side wants to gain the best player in the deal.  And if the Brewers are not absolutely in love with the upside of at least 2 or 3 other Sox prospects to the point where they feel the reward is worth the risk, they won't make the deal.

There's probably not even much real discussion here.

Stupid Sox should have just signed Q.

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The Sox bounty for sucking is Burger, Collins, Madrigal, Vaughn, and Crochet. Everything else came via trade or signing or draft pick they would have had if they had won 100 games. These guys all signed for around slot, so the extra pool means nothing either. 

You are going to need a couple of these guys if you want this to be sustained, because every year of success, the paychecks get bigger and you know Uncle Jer right now is shitting his pants at a league average payroll. Replacements cost a lot, especially when you are trying to win.

The Cubs couldn't even do it. I bet they wish they just signed a 4th starter instead of paying up for Q. I bet they wish they went a tier lower for a closer when the traded for Chapman and still had Gleyber.  Trading away your top guys when they seem to have very nice futures makes the window close quick.

Edited by Dick Allen

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