Jameson Taillon traded to Yankees

[Boopa1219]

18 hours ago, hi8is said:

You do see this statement is a contradiction, yes?

What’s the contradiction?

[thxfrthmmrs]

5 hours ago, YourWhatHurts said:

But OTOH Rutherford doesn't have a lot of value either, and he was a late first round draft pick out of HS and so was Ian Clarkin and both of those guys came from the Yankees in the DRob/Kahnle dump off.

It's hard to get value in the draft regardless.  The best policy is to spend as much money as possible on the highest-end guys available.  In the Sox defense, they have been doing a much better job targeting higher-level players in the early rounds in the draft lately.

Re: the group mentioned though, Burdi has made some progress now that he is healthy.  He could still turn into a quality pen piece.  Walker got us potentially 2 years of Mazara and in hindsight we should have traded him for someone else.  Gonzalez seems to be on track to being a decent if not quality 4th OF IMO, which is a pretty good outcome anyway.  Only Sheets really looks like a guy with a pretty low likelihood of having any MLB success, but he also has made some improvement and he may have enough value to net the team a quality MR or bench piece at the deadline.  All in all, I think that group mentioned isn't really that damning.  Sure they could have done better in hindsight but let's just go look draft to draft at all of the high schoolers who are taken in the first 3 or 4 rounds who totally bust. 

Also coming to mind are Spencer Adams and David Holmberg who were HS guys who didn't work out.  I also remember getting excited about drafting a HS named Stephen Upchurch and I think he fell apart before he even got off of the bus to Great Falls.  More often that not these guys don't work out.

I do hope that whether it is a HS or college player, the Sox try to do what they did grabbing Crochet and Kelly back-to-back all the time in every draft.  

Rutherford will most likely never amount to shit and still netted two high end RPs a year after drafted. And that is the point here. The Padres and Yankees traded a bunch of guys to get 4 starting pitchers. Most of those guys are so far away and we probably won’t hear about them for a few years, or ever again. But all the key pieces are projectable players with decent to high upside. Those are the players teams want as center pieces for cost controlled assets, not the low ceiling high floor college picks. Not just that, Sox actually went above slot to sign some of these college picks that had no leverage, which made no sense. It’s more of the same shit on the LatAM side, trading away slot bonus and signing a guy like Yolbert.

[Sambuca]

Clearly, the theme/trend is trading for pitchers with cheap contracts and getting bargains compared to the already cheap FA market.  

Is this one worth it?  Probably not.  It may work out, but nah, Pirates were looking for serious talent.  

The Sox will continue to dangle the players they declared available, but if them fish don't bite, they will move on like nothing happened. 

Guessing at that point, we get a Wainwright (not sure if there's another comparable pitcher in that price range). 

Then I'm holding out hope, the cheap pitcher is to leave room for a better bat.  But we all know if it's not exactly their terms, it almost definitely for sure ain't happening. 

I have full confidence in Kopech for however innings they can get out of him.  He will be above average or better. 

Cease, I am not confident, but I'll drink some Katz Kool-Aid "(put your fingers here"), and try to remember his stuff is actually very good, and pray the dude will actually challenge hitters.   And if he is challenging them, he can keep his stuff in or near the zone. 

Right before I submit my reply, I always think, why the hell did you write nothing?  

I did it because I'm bored, and because this board is not doing so well right now.  

[Sambuca]

And stop proposing Rutherford and Sheets as anything, but maybe the 4th piece of a trade package.  They do not have any value, unless you're trading for Ray Durham. 

[FriendlyNorthsider]

7 hours ago, YourWhatHurts said:

I don't know who that Yankees guy is but I do know that I am absolutely not on board with giving up on Benny Bailey before he even picks up a bat on US soil just to "reel in" an old shoe wrapped in weeds and general garbage named Jameson Tallion.

I completely get why Two-Tommy Tallion is not the guy to trade Bailey and Jose Rodriguez for but trading the high-upside high-risk 23 or 24 ETA guys for a starter is what championship teams tend to do. 

[Sambuca]

1 minute ago, FriendlyNorthsider said:

I completely get why Two-Tommy Tallion is not the guy to trade Bailey and Jose Rodriguez for but trading the high-upside high-risk 23 or 24 ETA guys for a starter is what championship teams tend to do. 

Anyone who cares about losing Bailey or Jose Rodriguez to add the major league team during our limited competitive window is being absolutely ridiculous.  

[oldsox]

4 hours ago, Sambuca said:

Anyone who cares about losing Bailey or Jose Rodriguez to add the major league team during our limited competitive window is being absolutely ridiculous.  

I don't want to lose Ben Bailey for some journeyman guy who would be the 25th man on the roster, or worse.  I want to find out how good he is, and we'll have a better idea 9 months from now, if we have a minor league season.

[bmags]

10 hours ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Rutherford will most likely never amount to shit and still netted two high end RPs a year after drafted. And that is the point here. The Padres and Yankees traded a bunch of guys to get 4 starting pitchers. Most of those guys are so far away and we probably won’t hear about them for a few years, or ever again. But all the key pieces are projectable players with decent to high upside. Those are the players teams want as center pieces for cost controlled assets, not the low ceiling high floor college picks. Not just that, Sox actually went above slot to sign some of these college picks that had no leverage, which made no sense. It’s more of the same shit on the LatAM side, trading away slot bonus and signing a guy like Yolbert.

Right, the "I'm not sure what it has to do with the sox" stuff is that a bunch or pitchers they targeted (taillon excluded but is an example of market) were traded for young, high upside players.

A rebuttal isn't "well rutherford sucks" because the benefit of drafting a Rutherford is he maintains his value a lot longer than a Gavin Sheets. Rutherford sucks yet still was valuable to the Yankees.

And I don't want to hear about how the sox were better at drafting college than high school. The white sox didn't draft high school at near enough volume for it to matter, including a stretch in 2015-17. Now they have, and they are some of our best trade pieces, despite (or likely because of) the lost year last year.

It doesn't mean only HS players, but there can be a much better mix, which I think sox had started to hit starting in 2019.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

5 hours ago, Sambuca said:

Anyone who cares about losing Bailey or Jose Rodriguez to add the major league team during our limited competitive window is being absolutely ridiculous.  

My god man think about the prospect rankings!!!   THE PROSPECT RANKINGS!!!!!!!!!

[thxfrthmmrs]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

Right, the "I'm not sure what it has to do with the sox" stuff is that a bunch or pitchers they targeted (taillon excluded but is an example of market) were traded for young, high upside players.

A rebuttal isn't "well rutherford sucks" because the benefit of drafting a Rutherford is he maintains his value a lot longer than a Gavin Sheets. Rutherford sucks yet still was valuable to the Yankees.

And I don't want to hear about how the sox were better at drafting college than high school. The white sox didn't draft high school at near enough volume for it to matter, including a stretch in 2015-17. Now they have, and they are some of our best trade pieces, despite (or likely because of) the lost year last year.

It doesn't mean only HS players, but there can be a much better mix, which I think sox had started to hit starting in 2019.

I agree with the last 2 points, hopefully it was a start of a trend and change in organizational philosophy, and they badly need to apply the same strategy to the international market by targeting projectable, toolsy players. And if we're staying with the bonus pool system and not going to a draft, I'd like to see them trade for bonus money for a change after the trade freeze, instead of trading it away.

[YourWhatHurts]

12 hours ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Rutherford will most likely never amount to shit and still netted two high end RPs a year after drafted. And that is the point here. The Padres and Yankees traded a bunch of guys to get 4 starting pitchers. Most of those guys are so far away and we probably won’t hear about them for a few years, or ever again. But all the key pieces are projectable players with decent to high upside. Those are the players teams want as center pieces for cost controlled assets, not the low ceiling high floor college picks. Not just that, Sox actually went above slot to sign some of these college picks that had no leverage, which made no sense. It’s more of the same shit on the LatAM side, trading away slot bonus and signing a guy like Yolbert.

Yolbert is a much better prospect than what you are giving him credit for being.

The Sox as has been noted on here many times, don't negotiate with the little kids and commit bonus money 2-3 years out.  Because of that they have money available and they use it to sign Cubans.  Now, when there are periods where many quality Cuban prospects defect, the Sox will "win" with that strategy.  They'll "win" by default, but they will still "win."  

Trading bonus money is stupidity and stubbornness without much precedent, but this is also a league who had Loria in it and is still full of scumbags.  But it's really bad.

Still, when we all go to the INTL draft eventually, whether the next CBA or the one thereafter, it shouldn't be surprising if the Sox actually do at least slightly worse than they have been in the INTL market, because they aren't going to be getting all of these high-quality Cubans anymore; other teams will be drafting them ahead of where the Sox pick.

[YourWhatHurts]

2 hours ago, oldsox said:

I don't want to lose Ben Bailey for some journeyman guy who would be the 25th man on the roster, or worse.  I want to find out how good he is, and we'll have a better idea 9 months from now, if we have a minor league season.

Right.

The Yankees are trying to "fix" a guy who the Pirates are dumping for low value before they even let him throw a pitch in the 2021 season.  Shows how much confidence they have in extracting greater value out of this guy.

This move is very uncharacteristic of the Yankees.  Normally they sign at least 1 of Bauer/Tanaka/Paxton and go into the tax, not do this.  This is typically a Sox-style move, but one I'm glad they didn't try very hard to make.

[YourWhatHurts]

7 hours ago, Sambuca said:

Anyone who cares about losing Bailey or Jose Rodriguez to add the major league team during our limited competitive window is being absolutely ridiculous.  

This isn't the Corbin Burnes thread, this is the Jameson Taillon thread.  Wrong thread.

[YourWhatHurts]

7 hours ago, FriendlyNorthsider said:

I completely get why Two-Tommy Tallion is not the guy to trade Bailey and Jose Rodriguez for but trading the high-upside high-risk 23 or 24 ETA guys for a starter is what championship teams tend to do. 

We're not a championship organization.  The same top guy who was here since the 70s or whenever is still here.  And his little lackey has been the #2 guy since 2000.  Same old same old.

Championship teams in the Sox position sign out of the Bauer/Tanaka/Paxton group and give up nothing.  They use their like $70M+ or whatever it is room under the luxury tax, whatever that figure is, instead of b****ing about spending too much when they've been pocketing monies during a rebuild for several years prior.  The pandemic is an excuse for the dorf and nothing more.

[YourWhatHurts]

1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

My god man think about the prospect rankings!!!   THE PROSPECT RANKINGS!!!!!!!!!

Yeah it's really easy to contend without a quality farm.  Don't you have comments to make about the Padres farm depth?

[bmags]

54 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

I agree with the last 2 points, hopefully it was a start of a trend and change in organizational philosophy, and they badly need to apply the same strategy to the international market by targeting projectable, toolsy players. And if we're staying with the bonus pool system and not going to a draft, I'd like to see them trade for bonus money for a change after the trade freeze, instead of trading it away.

I think we are better off hoping for a structural change to a draft where they have a more enforced budget. I will say I think sox international scouting overall has been immensely better since 2016. Guys like Jose Rodriguez and Bailey weren't even players we were aware of until they showed up in DSL, and Ramos was very successful last year.

The high-level guys like Robert/Abreu hit, and now we get to see how Vera/Cespedes may pay off. There's also intriguing guys like Guzman. So it's been productive for the sox just far too narrow.

[steveno89]

19 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Benjamin Bailey isn’t comparable?

Bailey is a nice young prospect, unfortunately our system does not have much young prospect depth for us to trade from. 

Clearly clubs are valuing int'l signings and prep prospects over college players at the moment in trades

[YourWhatHurts]

5 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Bailey is a nice young prospect, unfortunately our system does not have much young prospect depth for us to trade from. 

Clearly clubs are valuing int'l signings and prep prospects over college players at the moment in trades

Not really.  

Top 100 Baseball Prospects (mlb.com)

There's the MLB Pipeline Top 100 for 2020 (2021 isn't out yet).  Those are the guys who are being valued highest at the moment.  Tons of college guys on there.  Also there are some HS guys and INTL FAs.

I think what we are seeing with the Pirates specifically is a desire to dump salary and take the best they can get for 2 SPs with little value.  They also dumped their 1B for very little.  They are targeting far away types because that is the best they are getting.

Cubs also dumped Darvish.  

The Rays did well with Snell but usually teams in salary dump mode don't do so well in deals.  

[YourWhatHurts]

16 minutes ago, bmags said:

I think we are better off hoping for a structural change to a draft where they have a more enforced budget. I will say I think sox international scouting overall has been immensely better since 2016. Guys like Jose Rodriguez and Bailey weren't even players we were aware of until they showed up in DSL, and Ramos was very successful last year.

The high-level guys like Robert/Abreu hit, and now we get to see how Vera/Cespedes may pay off. There's also intriguing guys like Guzman. So it's been productive for the sox just far too narrow.

We will most likely be worse.  It's hard to take Luis Robert, Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada (Red Sox), etc. in the INTL draft unless you are picking #1.  It depends on what the rules will be re: age.  But we just signed Cespedes and Vera.  Vera may not fall to us where we are picking.  Cespedes is gone before we picked.  If the owner wasn't such a POS we may have had Colas this period too.  Talk about a haul of an INTL draft, man!  That shit doesn't happen if the process is equal for everyone.  We are one of the teams who have a distinct advantage because of the Cuban relationship.  That shit all goes away when the rules come in.

Sure we'll get some better players out of the DR but we'll lose big in Cuba.

[Sleepy Harold]

4 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

Not really.  

Top 100 Baseball Prospects (mlb.com)

There's the MLB Pipeline Top 100 for 2020 (2021 isn't out yet).  Those are the guys who are being valued highest at the moment.  Tons of college guys on there.  Also there are some HS guys and INTL FAs.

I think what we are seeing with the Pirates specifically is a desire to dump salary and take the best they can get for 2 SPs with little value.  They also dumped their 1B for very little.  They are targeting far away types because that is the best they are getting.

Cubs also dumped Darvish.  

The Rays did well with Snell but usually teams in salary dump mode don't do so well in deals.  

As a counter to that, here's BAs breakdown of the top 100 prospects. 70% are made up of HS/INTL guys. Some of the industry is starting to value the younger prospects higher than college players. 

 

[YourWhatHurts]

As I said earlier in another post, look at who the Sox take and the money they spend in rounds 2-5.  They take value picks too early, RPs and bench guys too early, and not enough consensus top available players.  The last 2 drafts they gave much larger bonuses out after the first: Kelly in 5 rounds in the 2nd and both Dalquist and Thompson got big bonuses in the 2nd and 3rd.  They really do not regularly give out big bonuses in the 3rd. 

But still, they put money in dorf's pocket in last year's draft.  They could have probably signed Bailey Horn as a FA if they wanted him and offered to spend all of their remaining funds in the 5th round to the best guy available who would take it.  But they didn't do it, they just took Horn and stuffed the rest of the money back into jr's pocket.

[YourWhatHurts]

1 minute ago, Sleepy Harold said:

As a counter to that, here's BAs breakdown of the top 100 prospects. 70% are made up of HS/INTL guys. Some of the industry is starting to value the younger prospects higher than college players. 

 

Then I will immediately counter that HS players stick around on lists much longer than college guys do (like Kopech for us vs. Vaughn, Madrigal, etc.) and also stick on far longer than advanced Cubans like Moncada and Robert.  That should count against them but it doesn't when you're just counting the same names every year.

How many top-100 lists did Casey Kelley appear on before he was officially known as a bust?

[southsider2k5]

8 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

We will most likely be worse.  It's hard to take Luis Robert, Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada (Red Sox), etc. in the INTL draft unless you are picking #1.  It depends on what the rules will be re: age.  But we just signed Cespedes and Vera.  Vera may not fall to us where we are picking.  Cespedes is gone before we picked.  If the owner wasn't such a POS we may have had Colas this period too.  Talk about a haul of an INTL draft, man!  That shit doesn't happen if the process is equal for everyone.  We are one of the teams who have a distinct advantage because of the Cuban relationship.  That shit all goes away when the rules come in.

Sure we'll get some better players out of the DR but we'll lose big in Cuba.

Of your starting list, one was signed, one wouldn't qualify for the international draft, and one was a trade.

Also keep in mind this will involve all of those 16 year olds that are signing, so now teams would have to choose between more sure things with lower superstar potential like Cespedes and Colas, versus guys who have the unlimited ceiling but are 5 to 7 years away from it.  We already see that today in the MLB draft with teams choosing between college and HS players and how to weigh development versus potential.

[YourWhatHurts]

17 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Of your starting list, one was signed, one wouldn't qualify for the international draft, and one was a trade.

Also keep in mind this will involve all of those 16 year olds that are signing, so now teams would have to choose between more sure things with lower superstar potential like Cespedes and Colas, versus guys who have the unlimited ceiling but are 5 to 7 years away from it.  We already see that today in the MLB draft with teams choosing between college and HS players and how to weigh development versus potential.

I don't know what the age rules will be.  It seems silly to allow 16-year-old signings at that point.  There should be camps and teams organized by MLB or something, like basically the DSL but better, a cross between the AZL and the DSL, where these kids play until they are draft-eligible.  And they should also go to school, and be given an education like a US HS student, IMO.

And re: the ages, I think if it will be a fair system, the NPB and Cuban age rules should go away.  All foreign players are draft-eligible at 18 or 17 with a HS education, but maybe if a player is older then he can qualify for a higher contract value within the rules which doesn't count against the pool, and if he was with NPB or the Korean league then there can be an allowance for a paid fee to that club, which also doesn't count against the draft pool.

I mean, we are talking about a draft "signing bonus" not a contract.  The contract comes after.  Jose Abreu or Tanaka or someone like that could still get drafted #1, get say a $5M bonus, and then because of age and/or affiliation, there is an MLB contract signed instead of a MiLB contract, and in a case like Tanaka the NPB club gets a signing fee.

I really don't think all of this stuff has been thought of yet.  

Edited January 25, 2021 by YourWhatHurts

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

I don't know what the age rules will be.  It seems silly to allow 16-year-old signings at that point.  There should be camps and teams organized by MLB or something, like basically the DSL but better, a cross between the AZL and the DSL, where these kids play until they are draft-eligible.  And they should also go to school, and be given an education like a US HS student, IMO.

And re: the ages, I think if it will be a fair system, the NPB and Cuban age rules should go away.  All foreign players are draft-eligible at 18 or 17 with a HS education, but maybe if a player is older then he can qualify for a higher contract value within the rules which doesn't count against the pool, and if he was with NPB or the Korean league then there can be an allowance for a paid fee to that club, which also doesn't count against the draft pool.

I mean, we are talking about a draft "signing bonus" not a contract.  The contract comes after.  Jose Abreu or Tanaka or someone like that could still get drafted #1, get say a $5M bonus, and then because of age and/or affiliation, there is an MLB contract signed instead of a MiLB contract, and in a case like Tanaka the NPB club gets a signing fee.

I really don't think all of this stuff has been thought of yet.  

They already have rules as to who qualifies for the international signings period and who becomes a free agent.  Unless they want to renegotiate everything with the union, it is logical to leave alone what is already separate.

If they wanted things to make the most sense they would just add the international kids to the regular draft just like hockey and the NBA do.  But again, they already have a system in place that works, so they aren't going to throw all of that away to start over.