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Sox vs. Yankees Comparison

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2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Right now the Yankees look like the team to beat in the AL with a 50+ projected fWAR, so I figured it would be a fun exercise to do a position by position comparison to see how we stack up against them and where we must improve to narrow the gap.

Note, this won’t be an OD roster comparison, but rather a potential end of season view to account for key call-ups or guys returning from injury.

Lineup:

  • 1B: Abreu vs. Voit | EVEN
  • 2B: Madrigal vs. LeMahieu | NYY++
  • SS: Anderson vs. Torres | EVEN
  • 3B: Moncada vs. Urshela | CWS+
  • LF: Jimenez vs. Frazier | CWS+
  • CF: Robert vs. Hicks | CWS+
  • RF: Eaton vs. Judge | NYY+++
  • DH: Vaugh vs. Stanton | NYY++
  • CA: Grandal vs. Sanchez | CWS++

Bench:

  • IF: Mendick vs. Wade | EVEN
  • OF: Engel vs. Tauchman | NYY+
  • UT: Garcia vs. Ford | EVEN
  • BC: Collins vs. Higashioka | NYY+

Rotation:

  • SP1: Giolito vs. Cole | EVEN
  • SP2: Lynn vs. Severino | EVEN
  • SP3: Keuchel vs. Kluber | CWS+
  • SP4: Cease vs. Taillon | NYY+
  • SP5: Kopech vs. Montgomery | NYY+
  • SP6: Lopez vs. German | NYY+
  • SP7: Stiever vs. Garcia | NYY+

Bullpen:

  • CL: Hendriks vs. Chapman | EVEN
  • SU: Bummer vs. Britton | CWS+
  • SU: Crochet vs. Green | EVEN
  • SU: Heuer vs. Ottavino | EVEN
  • MR: Marshall vs. Cessa | CWS+
  • MR: Foster vs. Loaisiga | CWS+
  • MR: Fry vs. Nelson| CWS+

I like this format.  You mention the Yanks have a 50+ projected fWAR.  Do you know the WS projected fWAR?  I tried to find it myself but failed in my search.

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23 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

There's no way that Giolito and Lynn are "equal" to a healthy Cole and Severino.

The Yanks have a much better rotation if they are healthy.  Sox have a better IF defense.  Yanks probably similar defensively in the OF because Eloy brings down the quality of the OF D so much.  Offensively both lineups are deep with power and speed, and lots of tough outs.  Both bullpens should be very good, but you never know how that will turn out.

Overall IMO the Yankees are definitely the better team ATM.  The Sox don't have the horses yet.

Also when you add D TA is way better than Gleyber.

Zips has Giolito as the better pitcher next year and he was better than Cole in 2020.  I’m very high on Lucas heading into 2021 with Katz now in the fold who I think will push Lucas to maximize his arsenal.  I don’t expect many will agree with me putting him even with Cole and I can totally respect that viewpoint.

As for Lynn vs. Severino, one is healthy and the other is not.  I absolutely love Lynn and think his true talent level is in the 4.5 to 5 win range.  That might represent a lower ceiling than Severino’s, but Luis will be coming back from TJS and may not be 100% next year.  There is an argument to give Lynn the edge for that very reason, but figured I’d just call it a toss-up.

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13 minutes ago, poppysox said:

I like this format.  You mention the Yanks have a 50+ projected fWAR.  Do you know the WS projected fWAR?  I tried to find it myself but failed in my search.

We’re right around 40, but I think there is a lot of upside to our projection given the amount of youth we have and some over-regression they have for guys like Timmy & Jose.

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team

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Both the Sox and Yankees also are "maxed out" in terms of payroll, so that's even.

Of course the Yanks are up against the luxury tax and the Sox are up against .....

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Abreu > Voit

Tim Anderson > Gleyber

Jimenez vs. Frazier is more like CWS+++ instead of CWS+, also frazier might not even start

Roberts vs Hicks is also more like CWS+++ as Hicks might not even play more than 50 games given his history

Gio vs. Cole is NYY+

Keuchel vs. Kluber is even IMO

when you take those into consideration, NYY has a clear sweep in Rotation and CWS have a very strong edge in Offensive lineup

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14 minutes ago, iWiN4PreP said:

Abreu > Voit

Tim Anderson > Gleyber

Jimenez vs. Frazier is more like CWS+++ instead of CWS+, also frazier might not even start

Roberts vs Hicks is also more like CWS+++ as Hicks might not even play more than 50 games given his history

Gio vs. Cole is NYY+

Keuchel vs. Kluber is even IMO

when you take those into consideration, NYY has a clear sweep in Rotation and CWS have a very strong edge in Offensive lineup

Lol, cmon

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6 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Lol, cmon

I guess maybe if he's hurt a lot. If Kluber is healthy, I do agree he will blow Keuchel away (I expect him to regess hard).

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Yankees are the ultimate high risk/high reward team. If their guys all play to their potential and stay healthy, no one is touching them in the AL. But the probability of their guys staying healthy is extremely low. I don’t think they’ve improved much from last year.

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This is a tough one to predict. We know nothing of what Kopech will be like. Moncada succumbed for a whole season to a virus that we still don't know everything about. Robert was totally lost the last few weeks last year.

Is like to think my best hopes for them will manifest but will have to see.

One thing *is* certain though: this is a great discussion to now be able to have.

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3 hours ago, Quin said:

This honestly helped sell me on Cruz even more. 

This.  If there is a single guy out there that the Sox can actually get who is within their budget and makes the most impact it would be Cruz.

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7 minutes ago, HOFHurt35 said:

This.  If there is a single guy out there that the Sox can actually get who is within their budget and makes the most impact it would be Cruz.

At this point, I think the best we could expect is Cruz, Wainright, and a catcher signed to a minor league deal to compete against Collins.  I think that actually gives us the better group of position players and improves our SP depth, but we’d still be well behind the Yankees in that regard.  All that being said, Cruz seems like wishful thinking with Jerry crying poor amidst the pandemic.

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5 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Right now the Yankees look like the team to beat in the AL with a 50+ projected fWAR, so I figured it would be a fun exercise to do a position by position comparison to see how we stack up against them and where we must improve to narrow the gap.

Note, this won’t be an OD roster comparison, but rather a potential end of season view to account for key call-ups or guys returning from injury.

Lineup:

  • 1B: Abreu vs. Voit / CWS 
  • 2B: Madrigal vs. LeMahieu /NYY
  • SS: Anderson vs. Torres /CWS
  • 3B: Moncada vs. Urshela | CWS+
  • LF: Jimenez vs. Frazier | CWS+
  • CF: Robert vs. Hicks | CWS+
  • RF: Eaton vs. Judge | NYY+++
  • DH: Vaugh vs. Stanton /CWS
  • CA: Grandal vs. Sanchez | CWS++

Bench:

  • IF: Mendick vs. Wade | EVEN
  • OF: Engel vs. Tauchman | NYY+
  • UT: Garcia vs. Ford | EVEN
  • BC: Collins vs. Higashioka | NYY+

Rotation:

  • SP1: Giolito vs. Cole /NYY
  • SP2: Lynn vs. Severino /CWS
  • SP3: Keuchel vs. Kluber /EVEN
  • SP4: Cease vs. Taillon /CWS
  • SP5: Kopech vs. Montgomery /CWS
  • SP6: Lopez vs. German | NYY+
  • SP7: Stiever vs. Garcia | NYY+

Bullpen:

  • CL: Hendriks vs. Chapman | EVEN
  • SU: Bummer vs. Britton | CWS+
  • SU: Crochet vs. Green | EVEN
  • SU: Heuer vs. Ottavino | EVEN
  • MR: Marshall vs. Cessa | CWS+
  • MR: Foster vs. Loaisiga | CWS+
  • MR: Fry vs. Nelson| CWS+

I redid the list on the player I would prefer on my team.

I also combined DH and 1st base.  I like ours better because of cost, potential, and health history.  

I think Cole > Gio

Lynn = Servino

DK = Kluber. Face it, DK was hurting last year.  Who knows if either can finish the year?  If both healthy then it's NYY easy. 

Also, I take our kids over their bottom half of the rotation every day.  

 

 

Edited by black jack
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1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

At this point, I think the best we could expect is Cruz, Wainright, and a catcher signed to a minor league deal to compete against Collins.  I think that actually gives us the better group of position players and improves our SP depth, but we’d still be well behind the Yankees in that regard.  All that being said, Cruz seems like wishful thinking with Jerry crying poor amidst the pandemic.

It would sell out our future a bit, but.... the best way to improve now might be to trade Vaughn ++ for Corbin Burnes. You then take the money you save from not spending on that last SP, and use it to sign Nelson Cruz. Then both the lineup and the starting staff are flipping loaded.

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10 minutes ago, Sarava said:

It would sell out our future a bit, but.... the best way to improve now might be to trade Vaughn ++ for Corbin Burnes. You then take the money you save from not spending on that last SP, and use it to sign Nelson Cruz. Then both the lineup and the starting staff are flipping loaded.

You’d basically have a complete roster if you did that and one that I’d argue is the best in the AL, but I’d be very hesitant to move Vaughn.

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12 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You’d basically have a complete roster if you did that and one that I’d argue is the best in the AL, but I’d be very hesitant to move Vaughn.

Yeah. That's tough and tempting at the same time.

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1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

At this point, I think the best we could expect is Cruz, Wainright, and a catcher signed to a minor league deal to compete against Collins.  I think that actually gives us the better group of position players and improves our SP depth, but we’d still be well behind the Yankees in that regard.  All that being said, Cruz seems like wishful thinking with Jerry crying poor amidst the pandemic.

I don't think it is reasonable to expect Cruz.

I think Wainright + MiLB contract with invitation to ST for guys like DRob and Rosenthal is the best we can expect.

Maybe LaStella at 2/$10M where it's really like 1/$6M because year 2 has a $1M buyout

I wasn't born yesterday.

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57 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You’d basically have a complete roster if you did that and one that I’d argue is the best in the AL, but I’d be very hesitant to move Vaughn.

If they trade Vaughn they better sign Marcell Ozuna instead

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would much rather trade Vaughn for German Marquez and sign Marcell Ozuna instead of Nelson Cruz.

I have no problem trading Vaughn

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19 minutes ago, Rey21 said:

If they trade Vaughn they better sign Marcell Ozuna instead

If you really want a Jerry Reinsdorf special, you trade Vaughn++ for Burnes and then sign Ozuna to a 4/$72M contract.  And honestly, I wouldn’t be against that the more I think about it.  You’d be buying Marcell’s age 30 to 33 seasons so there’s reason to think he can remain effective over the life of the contract and he’s actually hit RHP well over the course of his career.  He’s not a perfect fit, but damn does Statcast love him and if he showed what he’s capable of in 2021.  And now all of sudden you have a deep & talented pitching staff that stacks up with anyone.  Unfortunately, this requires going a bit above last year’s payroll and Uncle Jerry can’t risk it in this environment.

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33 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

If you really want a Jerry Reinsdorf special, you trade Vaughn++ for Burnes and then sign Ozuna to a 4/$72M contract.  And honestly, I wouldn’t be against that the more I think about it.  You’d be buying Marcell’s age 30 to 33 seasons so there’s reason to think he can remain effective over the life of the contract and he’s actually hit RHP well over the course of his career.  He’s not a perfect fit, but damn does Statcast love him and if he showed what he’s capable of in 2021.  And now all of sudden you have a deep & talented pitching staff that stacks up with anyone.  Unfortunately, this requires going a bit above last year’s payroll and Uncle Jerry can’t risk it in this environment.

One of these days JR is going to surprise all of us in order to repay us for our patience.   

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35 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

If you really want a Jerry Reinsdorf special, you trade Vaughn++ for Burnes and then sign Ozuna to a 4/$72M contract.  And honestly, I wouldn’t be against that the more I think about it.  You’d be buying Marcell’s age 30 to 33 seasons so there’s reason to think he can remain effective over the life of the contract and he’s actually hit RHP well over the course of his career.  He’s not a perfect fit, but damn does Statcast love him and if he showed what he’s capable of in 2021.  And now all of sudden you have a deep & talented pitching staff that stacks up with anyone.  Unfortunately, this requires going a bit above last year’s payroll and Uncle Jerry can’t risk it in this environment.

I would try and aim higher for Woodruff or Castillo if they’re trading Vaughn and then sign Ozuna, that would leave absolutely no doubt in my mind they’re the favorite in the AL and truly then in the discussion as a World Series contender. But we can’t have nice things so I’m just sitting here hoping Lynn doesn’t show his age, Kuechel doesn’t regress, Robert doesn’t face the sophomore slump, Moncada bounces back, Abreu doesn’t regress, Eloy turns a real corner, and Adam Eaton to do anything. There’s so much bad that can happen to this team that minor upgrades won’t make up for but what do I know...

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2 hours ago, poppysox said:

One of these days JR is going to surprise all of us in order to repay us for our patience.   

There's something very obvious I can say here but it would be in extremely poor taste.

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6 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

There's something very obvious I can say here but it would be in extremely poor taste.

That's some dark shit Cali. I know what you were thinking

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On 1/24/2021 at 10:44 AM, Chicago White Sox said:

Zips has Giolito as the better pitcher next year and he was better than Cole in 2020.  I’m very high on Lucas heading into 2021 with Katz now in the fold who I think will push Lucas to maximize his arsenal.  I don’t expect many will agree with me putting him even with Cole and I can totally respect that viewpoint.

As for Lynn vs. Severino, one is healthy and the other is not.  I absolutely love Lynn and think his true talent level is in the 4.5 to 5 win range.  That might represent a lower ceiling than Severino’s, but Luis will be coming back from TJS and may not be 100% next year.  There is an argument to give Lynn the edge for that very reason, but figured I’d just call it a toss-up.

I think you easily could / should have given Lynn /Sox a + or even a ++ . Severino might not be back till July and the Yanks are not going to thrust him into full time starter from the get go. Over the course of the season that's a big advantage. ATM you can't think Severino will be the Severino of old by playoff time.

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4 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I think you easily could / should have given Lynn /Sox a + or even a ++ . Severino might not be back till July and the Yanks are not going to thrust him into full time starter from the get go. Over the course of the season that's a big advantage. ATM you can't think Severino will be the Severino of old by playoff time.

This seems like an extra-long timescale for him, that would be like 17 months after surgery. Did he have a setback?

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