Sox resign Rodon 1 yr /3m official, Vargas DFA

[Harry Chappas]

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I guess it all depends if you want this team to be "good" or a non-luck needing World Series contender.

Everyone needs to be lucky especially when it comes to health in every sport.

Cease/Lopez/Rodon/Kopech need to pitch like #4 and #5 starters and they need to be lucky that the other three pitch to their capabilities.

 

 

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Harry Chappas said:

If healthy he is a 1.5-2.0 WAR pitcher.

It is not about performance it is about health.

Comparing him to Dylan Covey as I think I read in this thread is arsine but pretty par for the course for this board this offseason.

Prior to the suite of injuries, I would have said perfectly healthy he could be a 2-3 win pitcher. He was in 2016. 

But since the injuries piled up, I don't know that he still can be that. If he's coming in as a starter with a 92 mph fastball like the last 2 years, rather than a 94 mph fastball, who knows.

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, Harry Chappas said:

Everyone needs to be lucky especially when it comes to health in every sport.

Cease/Lopez/Rodon/Kopech need to pitch like #4 and #5 starters and they need to be lucky that the other three pitch to their capabilities.

 

 

There is reasonable expectations for a team.  It isn't reasonable to think that Michael Kopech is going to throw 200 innings this season, but this franchise would be damned lucky if he did.  It is reasonable to expect a guy like Giolito and Lynn to be around the 200 inning mark this year, but it would be bad luck if they didn't.  If you start putting together a list of reasonable expectations for both the Sox and the top franchises right now, the Sox list would come up short of what those other top teams are looking at.  That is where I am talking about needing "luck"  When you start talking about bad luck situations, because the Sox are already playing from behind when it comes to reasonable expectations for this season, they would need a ton more good luck to make up for it.  Other teams have more depth and more quality player development to help contribute to those expectations and luck factor.  This just kind of reinforces that idea that without some breaks, the expectations for the Sox are not what would usually result in a WS type team, but maybe with more luck than others would need, they have a chance.  Sure that puts them ahead of like 20-25 other teams in baseball, but you don't play these teams to be 5th.

[35thstreetswarm]

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Again, that all depends on your standards.  For most of the Sox universe, this is supposed to be a chance at sustained success and World Seriess' (plural).  If the standard for you is to make the playoffs, that is fine. But most see with some strategic pieces, this run could be potentially more than that.  That's not a "hot take" that is recognizing the difference between a playoff team and one that has what it takes to go all of hte way.  Think of it this way, do you want to see a repeat of last season where we made it, but were so flawed that we got beat by a not a not great team in the first round?  Do you want to repeat the Twins recent playoff history?  Because that is where we are now.

Well, that kind of assumes the answer to the ultimate question, doesn't it?  There are lots of people, myself (and the oddsmakers) included, who do think this team could go all the way.  Sure, it would be better if we added a Cy Young winner as our 4th starter (and I'd celebrate with everybody if we did so).  It would be even better if we added another Cy Young winner as our fifth starter.  But is either move strictly necessary?  I guess we'll see.  Would they be typical, when considering the moves and rosters of the other teams vying for the same trophy?  Definitely not.

[Balta1701]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

There is reasonable expectations for a team.  It isn't reasonable to think that Michael Kopech is going to throw 200 innings this season, but this franchise would be damned lucky if he did.  It is reasonable to expect a guy like Giolito and Lynn to be around the 200 inning mark this year, but it would be bad luck if they didn't.  If you start putting together a list of reasonable expectations for both the Sox and the top franchises right now, the Sox list would come up short of what those other top teams are looking at.  That is where I am talking about needing "luck"  When you start talking about bad luck situations, because the Sox are already playing from behind when it comes to reasonable expectations for this season, they would need a ton more good luck to make up for it.  Other teams have more depth and more quality player development to help contribute to those expectations and luck factor.  This just kind of reinforces that idea that without some breaks, the expectations for the Sox are not what would usually result in a WS type team, but maybe with more luck than others would need, they have a chance.  Sure that puts them ahead of like 20-25 other teams in baseball, but you don't play these teams to be 5th.

I have to disagree partially with the bolded. I would fully agree with that statement if last year had been a normal year. However, 200 innings is a massive innings boost for both of those players. Giolito threw 72 innings last year, Lance Lynn threw 84. I would say it is possible for Giolito and Lynn to be around the 200 inning mark this year...but with those huge jumps in innings, it would be entirely reasonable if they didn't.

[southsider2k5]

6 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

Well, that kind of assumes the answer to the ultimate question, doesn't it?  There are lots of people, myself (and the oddsmakers) included, who do think this team could go all the way.  Sure, it would be better if we added a Cy Young winner as our 4th starter (and I'd celebrate with everybody if we did so).  It would be even better if we added another Cy Young winner as our fifth starter.  But is either move strictly necessary?  I guess we'll see.  Would they be typical, when considering the moves and rosters of the other teams vying for the same trophy?  Definitely not.

The question is how big do you think that chance is? 1%?  5%?  15%?  Making the playoffs means you could go all of the way, but when you have major flaws and a lack of depth, those odds aren't as high as those who don't have them.

[Kyyle23]

14 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I have to disagree partially with the bolded. I would fully agree with that statement if last year had been a normal year. However, 200 innings is a massive innings boost for both of those players. Giolito threw 72 innings last year, Lance Lynn threw 84. I would say it is possible for Giolito and Lynn to be around the 200 inning mark this year...but with those huge jumps in innings, it would be entirely reasonable if they didn't.

So by your estimation,  no pitchers should cross 200 innings this season because it wasn't done last season?

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Kyyle23 said:

So by your estimation,  no pitchers should cross 200 innings this season because it wasn't done last season?

Not my point.

In my estimation, a guy who I would have had good confidence could get to 200 innings, like Lynn or Giolito, has a far higher risk of not getting to that level because of the shortened 2020 season. Arms that were used to that number of innings had an extra 3 month break last year. If they push towards 200 innings, they may instead have a more severe dead arm period or a higher chance of injury than they would otherwise. If a workhorse like Lynn pitches 125 innings and then suddenly has to miss a few weeks with something being sore...you just can't be surprised this year. They may get to 200 innings, but you cannot be surprised by injury this year. You can't simply say 'that's bad luck", it's something you need to plan for if you want to compete. 

For this reason, rotation depth that you have confidence in is extra important in 2021. 

[Kyyle23]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Not my point.

In my estimation, a guy who I would have had good confidence could get to 200 innings, like Lynn or Giolito, has a far higher risk of not getting to that level because of the shortened 2020 season. Arms that were used to that number of innings had an extra 3 month break last year. If they push towards 200 innings, they may instead have a more severe dead arm period or a higher chance of injury than they would otherwise. If a workhorse like Lynn pitches 125 innings and then suddenly has to miss a few weeks with something being sore...you just can't be surprised this year. They may get to 200 innings, but you cannot be surprised by injury this year. You can't simply say 'that's bad luck", it's something you need to plan for if you want to compete. 

For this reason, rotation depth that you have confidence in is extra important in 2021. 

I would say the above assumes that in those three months off that these pitchers were not working on their inning workload and did nothing.   I agree with extra depth because of weird shit happening but I don't agree that we are to expect dead arms and the inability to get to previous inning workload because of 2020 inning workload 

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

I would say the above assumes that in those three months off that these pitchers were not working on their inning workload and did nothing.   I agree with extra depth because of weird shit happening but I don't agree that we are to expect dead arms and the inability to get to previous inning workload because of 2020 inning workload 

Even if they were working, they weren't throwing 100 full effort pitches to big leaguers every 5 days. I think that increased number of pitching injuries this year is precisely what should be expected as people try to get back to normal.

[southsider2k5]

5 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

I would say the above assumes that in those three months off that these pitchers were not working on their inning workload and did nothing.   I agree with extra depth because of weird shit happening but I don't agree that we are to expect dead arms and the inability to get to previous inning workload because of 2020 inning workload 

The other school of thought is that in older pitchers could NOT having a full 100% workload actually rest their arms a bit and allow them to not be as beat up as they would normally be?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

30 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Even if they were working, they weren't throwing 100 full effort pitches to big leaguers every 5 days. I think that increased number of pitching injuries this year is precisely what should be expected as people try to get back to normal.

I think your thinking on this is correct . I don't think there will be a pitcher in all of baseball to pitch 200 innings in 2021. However I am thinking that 162 games being played is a long shot at this point in time. In the unlikely event all 162 are played I'm still not betting on anyone reaching 200 innings.

[TheCommish]

2 hours ago, RagahRagah said:

You mean currently or historically?

I was speaking more of currently, but honestly if you look at history, there aren't many teams that lined up 4 great starting pitchers. And the ones that did are "historical" teams, so it's not a normal standard. The Orioles that had four 20 game winners, the Braves of the 90's. Generally speaking you try to land 1-2 TOR type of pitchers, a quality #3 and you put yourself in line as a World Series contender. The difference between winning the WS and not, is probably that #3 guy pitching like he's a #2 or #1 in the playoffs. Teams get hot and that's what ends up winning you the WS. That's why not always the most talented team wins every year. 

[South Side Hit Men]

1 hour ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

How many fans have been treated to a "non-luck needing World Series contender" in their lifetimes?  I can think of...well, none

There was at least one, and the current team is a possibility.

Larry Himes assembled the key players for a legitimate World Series contender, but Jerry fired him, and then led his fellow owners / stooge commissioner to destroy their best chance at a World Series in 1994 . They also ruined baseball in Montreal simultaneously, more deadly than "Oswald's magic bullet" were their efforts.

A similar CBA scenario is unfolding in 2021/2022, though Jerry does not hold the puppet strings over Manfred as he had over Bud. The larger concern is the fact several teams are assembling stronger teams, while the White Sox putter in their basement with a mid-level payroll in a league where a majority of teams tanking.

Jerry's primary motivation over the years are spite/revenge and profit, in that order. He'll spend to spite those he can't control (Belle singing to spite his fellow owners), or withhold spending to punish those he attempts to exert complete control, which are the players, i.e. the only reason most fans care about White Sox baseball. Jerry will proudly wave a white flag to celebrate once this window is over, perhaps as early as 2024.

Perhaps Jerry's happiest and proudest moment in life, pulling the plug on the Chicago Bulls championship run.

 

[southsider2k5]

7 minutes ago, TheCommish said:

I was speaking more of currently, but honestly if you look at history, there aren't many teams that lined up 4 great starting pitchers. And the ones that did are "historical" teams, so it's not a normal standard. The Orioles that had four 20 game winners, the Braves of the 90's. Generally speaking you try to land 1-2 TOR type of pitchers, a quality #3 and you put yourself in line as a World Series contender. The difference between winning the WS and not, is probably that #3 guy pitching like he's a #2 or #1 in the playoffs. Teams get hot and that's what ends up winning you the WS. That's why not always the most talented team wins every year. 

But every advantage you give yourself in these situations is a chance to separate yourself from the pack.  Just because we might be as good as the other teams deemed to be playoff teams doesn't mean you stop adding, especially when you have the chance to do so.  When you have built in depth and back up plans, bad luck can more overcome than if you are shallow and unlucky.

[RagahRagah]

15 minutes ago, TheCommish said:

I was speaking more of currently, but honestly if you look at history, there aren't many teams that lined up 4 great starting pitchers. And the ones that did are "historical" teams, so it's not a normal standard. The Orioles that had four 20 game winners, the Braves of the 90's. Generally speaking you try to land 1-2 TOR type of pitchers, a quality #3 and you put yourself in line as a World Series contender. The difference between winning the WS and not, is probably that #3 guy pitching like he's a #2 or #1 in the playoffs. Teams get hot and that's what ends up winning you the WS. That's why not always the most talented team wins every year. 

I can think of a few in the last decade so that doesn't speak too well to your theory.

But you are correct about momentum. 

Edited February 1, 2021 by RagahRagah

[Harry Chappas]

1 hour ago, South Side Hit Men said:

There was at least one, and the current team is a possibility.

Larry Himes assembled the key players for a legitimate World Series contender, but Jerry fired him, and then led his fellow owners / stooge commissioner to destroy their best chance at a World Series in 1994 . They also ruined baseball in Montreal simultaneously, more deadly than "Oswald's magic bullet" were their efforts.

A similar CBA scenario is unfolding in 2021/2022, though Jerry does not hold the puppet strings over Manfred as he had over Bud. The larger concern is the fact several teams are assembling stronger teams, while the White Sox putter in their basement with a mid-level payroll in a league where a majority of teams tanking.

Jerry's primary motivation over the years are spite/revenge and profit, in that order. He'll spend to spite those he can't control (Belle singing to spite his fellow owners), or withhold spending to punish those he attempts to exert complete control, which are the players, i.e. the only reason most fans care about White Sox baseball. Jerry will proudly wave a white flag to celebrate once this window is over, perhaps as early as 2024.

Perhaps Jerry's happiest and proudest moment in life, pulling the plug on the Chicago Bulls championship run.

 

San Diego, Mets and Blue Jays are better.

Sox are better than last year both on paper and reality. 

[TheCommish]

2 hours ago, RagahRagah said:

I can think of a few in the last decade so that doesn't speak too well to your theory.

But you are correct about momentum. 

A few in the last decade.. that shows it's not normal. If it was normal, you would be saying 4 of the last 6 WS teams had deep rotations. 

[TheCommish]

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

But every advantage you give yourself in these situations is a chance to separate yourself from the pack.  Just because we might be as good as the other teams deemed to be playoff teams doesn't mean you stop adding, especially when you have the chance to do so.  When you have built in depth and back up plans, bad luck can more overcome than if you are shallow and unlucky.

I agree with your point. I am still an advocate of adding Bauer on a 3 year deal at whatever the cost it takes. We certainly have budget available in these next 3 years with all of our young guys tied up in team friendly deals. And adding Bauer to an already good pitching rotation puts us at the top of the contending list for World Series. It is without question that the Sox SHOULD be signing Bauer. Now, the Sox are going to go the cheap rout because of what I've said above. What we should be doing is pushing our chips all in. I would be opposed to a 7 year deal for Bauer at over $30/M AAV, but a 3 year high AAV wouldn't hurt this franchise one bit. Especially because we are as close to a lock for playoffs over that 3 year stretch and playoff revenue will certainly be more than the salary to bring Bauer in. 

But that all makes too much sense for this ownership group. They are too frugal, but it's their business and their money. I can't make Wal-Mart pay their workers more because it's their choice. 

[southsider2k5]

 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

Rodon hired one of the best personal trainers in the business to work with him this off season.  He's taking baseball serious for the first time in his career.  I usually have no time for nonworkers which is exactly what Rodon has been up till now.  His talent can't be denied and now he's actually putting in the work.  I think he's in a perfect situation to have a good season.   

[ShoeLessRob]

What happens if one of Gio/Dallas/Lynn regresses or gets injured. This rotation turns back into shit.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

20 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Rodon hired one of the best personal trainers in the business to work with him this off season.  He's taking baseball serious for the first time in his career.  I usually have no time for nonworkers which is exactly what Rodon has been up till now.  His talent can't be denied and now he's actually putting in the work.  I think he's in a perfect situation to have a good season.   

You think he wins the 5th spot?

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

You think he wins the 5th spot?

He has to be the favorite right now.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

51 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

You think he wins the 5th spot?

I think he wins the 4th spot.