Better than 2020?

[South Side Hit Men]

1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Grandal is turning 34 next year...he's a catcher...it's a hard position to play everyday as you get old.   He remains a very good hitter and I suspect they will transition him to more DH then catcher as he ages.  IF Collins has learned to be a better catcher we will know pretty quickly this year and if he is pretty good...yes they will give him more and more of the burden going forward.

That is an extremely poor allocation of resources / signing if Grandal finishes the final 2-3 seasons catching less than 100 games. Grandal loses substantial value in terms of $s snd fWAR as 1B/DH, not to mention the fact the Sox already have far too many DH/1B in their system (Abreu, Vaughn, Jimenez plus the additional minor leaguers incapable of fielding).

If games caught expectations for Grandal are 32 (2020), 80-100 (2021) under 80 (2022-2023), then the signing is a much bigger mistake than I assessed at the time (high AAV, length and age, assuming he could catch 100-120 games/year).

If Collins is capable of catching 60 games per year and possibly DHing a few, that is the likely extent of his abilities given he is 26 and hasn’t done anything the previous two years to indicate he is capable to serve in a reserve role.

[oldsox]

On 1/31/2021 at 9:08 PM, South Side Hit Men said:

Cooper was given Lucas Giolito. Lucas had to literally leave the organization, go to his High School coach, and discard everything Cooper and the team tried to implement for naught. 

Always

Be

Coaching

 

The leads aren't weak, you're weak.

Classic stuff.  Thanks, man.

[Dominikk85]

So to have a baseline here are the stats:

wRC+: 113

Starter ERA: 3.85

Bullpen ERA: 3.76

I think the pen could get better. Some guys like foster might regress some but hendricks is a addition.

The starters is a little complicated. The ERA might not be much lower but the Sox also had some big time luck last year (4.6 fip vs 3.8 era). So the underlying skills will be better and also the innings which then helps the pen.

Lineup I think might be about the same or slightly worse. DH and RF should be a lot better but some guys are also due to some decline. But overall a 113 wrc+ could be attainable again.

 

So pitching definitely should be better albeit luck last year covered quite a bit so results might not be dramatically different

 

[MiddleCoastBias]

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/#alc

PECOTA has us as an 83.1 win team this year, good for 3rd place in the Central.

Even our bell curve for expected win percentage doesn't look favorable in their eyes.

Does PECOTA ever like us?

[Bob Sacamano]

Definitely better than 2020 but lack of depth still scares me.

[Dick Allen]

On paper better than 2020. On paper 1984 was better than 1983. 1991 was better than 1990. 2001 was better than 2000, 2006 was better than 2005. So nothing is given.

[thedoctor]

Just now, Dick Allen said:

On paper better than 2020. On paper 1984 was better than 1983. 1991 was better than 1990. 2001 was better than 2000, 2006 was better than 2005. So nothing is given.

yep. probably a better team but could end up with a worse record. the 60-game season to 162-game season is an interesting variable that i'm not how to account for in terms of how i feel people will perform.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

8 minutes ago, MiddleCoastBias said:

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/#alc

PECOTA has us as an 83.1 win team this year, good for 3rd place in the Central.

Even our bell curve for expected win percentage doesn't look favorable in their eyes.

Does PECOTA ever like us?

If Vegas game me a line of over/under 85 wins.. I'd be betting a lot of money.

[35thstreetswarm]

21 minutes ago, MiddleCoastBias said:

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/#alc

PECOTA has us as an 83.1 win team this year, good for 3rd place in the Central.

Even our bell curve for expected win percentage doesn't look favorable in their eyes.

Does PECOTA ever like us?

I'd be nervous if they did.

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, MiddleCoastBias said:

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/#alc

PECOTA has us as an 83.1 win team this year, good for 3rd place in the Central.

Even our bell curve for expected win percentage doesn't look favorable in their eyes.

Does PECOTA ever like us?

PECOTA always has a real hard time with oddities.  They don't predict breakout seasons well, and they damned sure don't know what to do with guys like Kopech and Crochet.

[Capital G]

A lot would have to go wrong for us to be worse than Cleve IMO

[Jack Parkman]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

PECOTA always has a real hard time with oddities.  They don't predict breakout seasons well, and they damned sure don't know what to do with guys like Kopech and Crochet.

Also anyone weighing Moncada's 2020 as anything other than noise is dumb. 

[MiddleCoastBias]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

PECOTA always has a real hard time with oddities.  They don't predict breakout seasons well, and they damned sure don't know what to do with guys like Kopech and Crochet.

I imagine combination of young and inconsistent (Robert) or returning from an illness we don't even understand (Moncada) hurts some of the other player projections as well.

[Dominikk85]

2 hours ago, MiddleCoastBias said:

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/#alc

PECOTA has us as an 83.1 win team this year, good for 3rd place in the Central.

Even our bell curve for expected win percentage doesn't look favorable in their eyes.

Does PECOTA ever like us?

That is Strange, fan graphs depth charts has them at 88 wins (1 behind the twins and with only one AL team projected for 90+).

I think 83 is way to low, and I think even 88 is quite conservative, I would guess more like 90 as median outcome.

[HOFHurt35]

44 minutes ago, Capital G said:

A lot would have to go wrong for us to be worse than Cleve IMO

And many scouts all over MLB fired, scouts who bought a lot of stock on  Moncada, Robert, Eloy, Kopech, , Giollito, Vaughn, Madrigal, Cease etc.  

 

[SpringfieldFan]

Katz should obviously be a major improvement over Cooper. However, I was wondering...During TLR's managerial career, he always had Dave Duncan as his pitching coach. Thew were a tandem so its odd to not have him there now.  Is there any downside to not having that synergy?

For that matter, I believe Duncan is a now pitching consultant with the organization. How does that work? Does that mean TLR and/or Katz will be able to leverage some of Duncan's expertise?

I just wondered because IMO the LaRussa/Duncan dynamic was a key factor in the success the Sox, A's and Cards had in those years.

[asindc]

On 1/31/2021 at 6:30 PM, Dominikk85 said:

I think that the sox overall are a better team than in 2020 but there are also some regression candidates.

2020 stats/2021 depth Charts projection

Hitters wRC+

1b jose 166/114

2b madrigal 114/97

ss Anderson 142/103

Of eloy 140/128

 

Pitcher era

Keuchel 1.99/4.x

That is some serious regression potential.

 

On the other hand RF and DH should be much improved, moncada should be better and lynn is a big upgrade.

In the pen heuer and marshall will probably regress some but hendricks is a big upgrade.

Overall the offense will probably slightly worse because just everything clicked in 2020 for many guys and the upgrades in RF, DH and 3b are probably not quite enough to offset regressions of jose and Tim but it shouldn't be much worse.

the pen I expect about the same to slightly better and the back end of the rotation should be a lot better.

 

 

 

 

 

 

You forgot to mention a player.

[maloney.adam]

Can someone please tell JR to open his wallet for once so Hahn can make some more moves to finish this offseason? 😉

Edited February 12, 2021 by maloney.adam

[South Side Hit Men]

3 hours ago, maloney.adam said:

Can someone please tell JR to open his wallet for once so Hahn can make some more moves to finish this offseason? 😉

Maloney Adam: Dear Eight Pound, Six Ounce, Newborn Rick Hahn, don't even know a word yet, just a little infant, so cuddly, but still omnipotent.

Chip: He was a man!

Maloney Adam: I like the baby version the best!

Jerry Reinsdorf: I own the White Sox and I get the money!

[poppysox]

On 2/8/2021 at 7:10 PM, VAfan said:

I don't agree with those projections.

They've already been wrong once about Tim Anderson, as they predicted he would fall off this year and all he did was get better. For TA, you can't run algorithms. You have to look at the player. He's still just scratching the surface.  

As for Abreu, I expect a drop off, but not by 40 points. The thing about Abreu is that until 2020, he had no cover, and he was playing on a bad team. Give him a pennant race and a deep lineup, and opponents can't focus all their energy just on stopping him. The pitcher is worn out trying to get through our lineup and Jose is there to pounce on his mistakes. And in a pennant race, Jose is jacked up more consistently. 

Keuchel will also not match his 1.99 ERA, but he only needs to stay in the 3s with our offense and bullpen, which is what he's done since 2014 with one off year in 2016. In other words, the key for Keuchel is more about innings than ERA. He just needs to stay healthy. 

As you point out...the depth of our lineup just wears a pitcher out.  Even when a pitcher seems to be rolling along he will hit a wall and the roof caves in.