Realistic expectation for Vaughn in 21

[Dominikk85 490]

How good do you think vaughn can be in 2021 if he comes up rather early?

Depth charts only has him for a 76 wrc+ (which is understandable considering he is soon 23, has never played above high A and did solid but but great there) but I think in this case we can trust traditional scouting more than the stats.

But I also think we shouldn't be too optimistic, he won't need as much adjustment as some other hitters as his approach is very mature, but some struggles in the first season can happen.

Is a 110 wRC+ a realistic goal for the first year? Would you go over or under with that?

I would be fine with a 110 wRC+ but he also could have a big rookie season or struggle a bit more.

 

 

Edited February 1 by Dominikk85

[Jose Abreu 2,228]

.260/.330/.440 or something, more strikeouts than expected. But long-term, I think he's a 1:1 K:BB guy with Grandal-like slash lines, maybe a bit higher average

[Balta1701 3,291]

I'm in with "I have absolutely no idea what is reasonable for this guy as I haven't seen anything of him playing baseball in 12 months". 

[SoCalChiSox 394]

20 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

.260/.330/.440 or something, more strikeouts than expected. But long-term, I think he's a 1:1 K:BB guy with Grandal-like slash lines, maybe a bit higher average

No way his BA will be anywhere near as low as Grandal. 

Vaughn should be 280-300. 

[Squirmin' for Yermin 942]

21 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

.260/.330/.440 or something, more strikeouts than expected. But long-term, I think he's a 1:1 K:BB guy with Grandal-like slash lines, maybe a bit higher average

If he only has a bit higher average than Grandal, we need to trade him now. This dude is going to be a monster in all offensive categories.

[Superstar Lamar 160]

real world realistic expectations for a guy who has never played above A ball is to spend the year in the minors

realistic for this site is that he is a middle of the order hitter on playoff team

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside 2,287]

17 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I'm in with "I have absolutely no idea what is reasonable for this guy as I haven't seen anything of him playing baseball in 12 months". 

Gotta go with Balta here but I will vote for the 100-110 wRC+ just because I'm hoping he isn't a total wreck.

[SpringfieldFan 50]

This older fan's response: to look up what wRC+ means.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside 2,287]

Anyone that wants to go for the 130+ club, there are a lot of openings.

[Jose Abreu 2,228]

8 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

No way his BA will be anywhere near as low as Grandal. 

Vaughn should be 280-300. 

 

7 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

If he only has a bit higher average than Grandal, we need to trade him now. This dude is going to be a monster in all offensive categories.

If he's getting on base 38% of the time and slugging near .500, I doubt anyone will care about his average 

Edited February 1 by Jose Abreu

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside 2,287]

Just now, SpringfieldFan said:

This older fan's response: to look up what wRC+ means.

Just think of 100 being league average  and every point above it as 1% above league average so 130 would be 30% above league average . It's a stat for how good you are offensively taking a lot into consideration, the more power the more you get on base the better.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside 2,287]

3 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

 

If he's getting on base 38% of the time and slugging near .500, I doubt anyone will care about his average 

Did anyone in baseball do that last year with a low batting average? Seems kind of hard to do.

[Jose Abreu 2,228]

1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Did anyone in baseball do that last year with a low batting average? Seems kind of hard to do.

You'd have to define low. I used Grandal with a higher average as a comp because I see a bigger difference between BA/OBP than most and I think most of his SLG value will come from doubles with 25-30 home runs sprinkled in. So I guess 2018-2020 Grandal (with higher average) is more what I was getting at. I'm not saying he'll hit .230/.400/.500 or something that outrageous in his prime, but .265/.380/.480 or something isn't too far-fetched given his potential walk rates

[iWiN4PreP 661]

Sub 100

[Quin 2,370]

1 minute ago, iWiN4PreP said:

Sub 100

Well, someone has very low confidence in Vaughn.

[Jose Abreu 2,228]

Just now, Quin said:

Well, someone has very low confidence in Vaughn.

I'm more surprised at the amount of people who answered "minors all year". Assuming a 162 game season, I would bet on him playing >125 games in MLB

[iWiN4PreP 661]

1 minute ago, Quin said:

Well, someone has very low confidence in Vaughn.

I always lower expectations of rookies first time through. I think vaughn gets the call mid season and might struggle a bit

[southsider2k5 6,122]

I am going to guess right around 100 for this season, but wouldn't be surprised to see him peak late as he starts to figure things out.

[SoxSteve 111]

considering our DH position hit like .156 last year .250 will be a godsend.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside 2,287]

52 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

 

If he's getting on base 38% of the time and slugging near .500, I doubt anyone will care about his average 

Just looking through the last full season in 2019 . I really couldn't find anyone who fits a low batting average with .380 OBP and near .500 Slg.

Acuna was .250 , .406, .581 but that's .156 difference between BA and OBP which is super high. I'm thinking high OBP guys might have .100 difference between BA and OBP so to get .380 OBP you get .280 BA which I wouldn't consider low.

Others below .250 couldn't come close to .500 Slg. So what I'm saying is if Vaughn is going to have a .380 OBO and near .500 Slg. he's going  to also have a pretty decent BA .

Grandal in 2019 .246, .380 , .468  again a large difference between BA and OBP of .134 which I think only the elite walk rate guys get and I guess .468 Slg is your definition of close to .500 ? Mine might be .480. Just saying I'm not expecting Vaughn to have an elite walk rate , nor a .380 OBP nor a close to .500 slugging. But I sure hope he can live up to your expectations. Also I'm confining my comments to just his 2021 numbers ,as the OP asked, not in his prime.

Edited February 1 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside 2,287]

1 hour ago, Jose Abreu said:

.260/.330/.440 or something, more strikeouts than expected. But long-term, I think he's a 1:1 K:BB guy with Grandal-like slash lines, maybe a bit higher average

This is reasonable.

[daggins 278]

Voted minors all season for the reasons Balta outlined above.

[SonofaRoache 1,518]

Robert was a 101 last year. I don't see a path for Vaughn being higher than 101 to 110. He will probably fall somewhere between there if he .ages adjustments and improves as the season goes on. I'd prefer he be in the minors and that we sign Cruz. It's easier to stomach Vaughn next season if he struggles as we'd really know where the team stands by then. Hed have a spot to grow through the pains without hurting wins and losses. 

Edited February 1 by SonofaRoache

[SoxSteve 111]

16 minutes ago, daggins said:

Voted minors all season for the reasons Balta outlined above.

That is not going to happen. if he is not up opening day he will be up the first minute after his service time kicks in And I wouldn't be surprised if he gets a long term deal like Eloy and Robert. That is my prediction

[southsider2k5 6,122]

If the Sox don't add a DH, there is zero chance (barring injury, shutdown, etc) that Vaughn doesn't see the majors this season.