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VAfan

Did the Sox make the right moves this offseason given the money they have spent?

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So much of the criticism of the Sox this offseason is based on the notion that the Sox needed to SPEND MORE MONEY than they did to improve their team. People talk about where we rank on the spending list for MLB, how far we are below the luxury tax, how much we spent compared to last year, etc. 

That's not a completely unfair criticism.

But let's look at the offseason and decide if they wisely spent the money they did use. 

1. Liam Hendriks. $11.3M in 2021, rising to $15M in 2024. 

2. Adam Eaton. $7M in 2021 with an option for 2022. 

3. Lance Lynn. $8M in 2021. Currently a free agent in 2022. 

4. Carlos Rodon. $3M in 2021. 

In addition, they traded Dane Dunning and Avery Weems. 

So, that's your spending kitty - just under $30M, and the trade chips of Dane Dunning and Avery Weems. 

Think you could do better? 

And, before you say Joc Pederson, you have to accept that the Sox offered him $10M in December and he turned them down.  So you don't just get to plug in Pederson for Eaton. 

Go ahead, show us all what you would have done instead that would be better than what the Sox did for what the Sox spent.  
 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, VAfan said:

So much of the criticism of the Sox this offseason is based on the notion that the Sox needed to SPEND MORE MONEY than they did to improve their team. People talk about where we rank on the spending list for MLB, how far we are below the luxury tax, how much we spent compared to last year, etc. 

That's not a completely unfair criticism.

But let's look at the offseason and decide if they wisely spent the money they did use. 

1. Liam Hendriks. $11.3M in 2021, rising to $15M in 2024. 

2. Adam Eaton. $7M in 2021 with an option for 2022. 

3. Lance Lynn. $8M in 2021. Currently a free agent in 2022. 

4. Carlos Rodon. $3M in 2021. 

In addition, they traded Dane Dunning and Avery Weems. 

So, that's your spending kitty - just under $30M, and the trade chips of Dane Dunning and Avery Weems. 

Think you could do better? 

And, before you say Joc Pederson, you have to accept that the Sox offered him $10M in December and he turned them down.  So you don't just get to plug in Pederson for Eaton. 

Go ahead, show us all what you would have done instead that would be better than what the Sox did for what the Sox spent.  Would I have done things differently, yes.  This is a fine offseason, and will put us in the top 2 (on paper), if not the top team before the season begins.  Leggo.  Add more depth and I will be happy.
 

 

 

Do I like all the moves, no (TLR, Lynn, no extension).  Do I think some moves were "meh" (Eaton), yes.  Do I still think we have a much better team than last year, yes. Add some more depth and I'll be a happy man.  We are already a top 2, if not the top in the AL.  Leggo.

Edited by Squirmin' for Yermin

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I was hoping for more. But the moves make us better this year than last.

Do I think Collins or whoever will be better than EE? Probably. More confidence once Vaughn comes up.

Do I think Lynn will have a better 21 than Dunning? Yes.

Do I think Liam will be better than Colome? Yes.

Do I think Eaton will be better than Mazara? Yes.

Does Rodon add some depth/competition? Yes.

 

A Lynn 2 yr extension would make me feel better.

 

Overall I am fine with it all but nothing to get excited about. I am more excited about assumed steps forward from our young guys and Kopech/Vaugn/Crochet's impact later in the year.

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38 minutes ago, VAfan said:

And, before you say Joc Pederson, you have to accept that the Sox offered him $10M in December and he turned them down.  So you don't just get to plug in Pederson for Eaton.   

 

That's all part of the problem, though.  

Yes, Joc misread his market by turning that down, but the SOX also misread the market by being in such a fucking hurry to sign a RF, rather than waiting until these last couple of weeks when the bargains begun. 

Maybe Eaton would've taken less by now, and that extra money could've used on a better 5th starter than Rodon.  

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No.

It may still work out. 

But no. 

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No. Offseason grade c- being generous 

 

ill post more detailed response When off work

you will want to hire me as gm

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Jackie Bradley Jr., instead of Eaton

No Hendriks, money goes into a starter, let’s say Odorizzi, instead

Veteran back-up catcher 

Edited by caulfield12
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No.  For fun, if I was GM...... (using fangraphs-roster resource as reference & 2021 cap column; not AAV)

Don't sign Grandal in 2019; instead extend McCann 4/$34m - 2021 =$7m. I like Yaz but always thought this unnecessary; then and now.

Make Lynn-Dunning deal

Sign Hendriks

Sign Mike Minor (2yr-9m KC), La Stella (3yr 19.5-SF), Ramos (1yr-2m Det), & Bradley Jr (2yr-20m 2021=$9m - or longer) - move Robert to RF - controversial maybe?

Sox FO

Grandal     18.250

Lynn             9.333

Hendriks    11.333

Eaton            6

Rodon          3

Total           $47.9m

Me

McCann         7

Lynn               9.333

Hendriks      11.333

Minor              9 

La Stella          6.5

Ramos             2

Bradley Jr        9

Total               $54.1m

diff  =             + $6.2m

Current payroll would be at ~$134m.  

RR has it at $132m but includes $5m over-estimate of 5 pre-arb players.  $132m - $5m + $6.2m = ~$134m. Anyway, under the $140 that  was expected.

Best in baseball, hands down!

 

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3 hours ago, soxfan18 said:

That's all part of the problem, though.  

Yes, Joc misread his market by turning that down, but the SOX also misread the market by being in such a fucking hurry to sign a RF, rather than waiting until these last couple of weeks when the bargains begun. 

Maybe Eaton would've taken less by now, and that extra money could've used on a better 5th starter than Rodon.  

But that approach might have left the Sox without a right fielder. I think you have to assume Eaton would have been gone around the time the Sox signed him because there were online notes to that effect. So if he's gone, and Pederson has already turned you down, your strategy is to wait out Pederson and hope he changes his mind?  

Edited by VAfan

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Would have preferred prioritizing starting pitching over closer, ideally with a high-upside guy like Kluber.  Would also have preferred a Pedersen/Engel platoon over Eaton purely because of injury concern (if he's healthy all year I think he'll be a good get).  I'm fine with the Lynn move, especially if we extend him.

But big picture:  this is a really good team that can make a deep playoff run.  Haven't felt that in 15 years. 

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36 minutes ago, Rounding_Third said:

No.  For fun, if I was GM...... (using fangraphs-roster resource as reference & 2021 cap column; not AAV)

Don't sign Grandal in 2019; instead extend McCann 4/$34m - 2021 =$7m. I like Yaz but always thought this unnecessary; then and now.

Make Lynn-Dunning deal

Sign Hendriks

Sign Mike Minor (2yr-9m KC), La Stella (3yr 19.5-SF), Ramos (1yr-2m Det), & Bradley Jr (2yr-20m 2021=$9m - or longer) - move Robert to RF - controversial maybe?

Sox FO

Grandal     18.250

Lynn             9.333

Hendriks    11.333

Eaton            6

Rodon          3

Total           $47.9m

Me

McCann         7

Lynn               9.333

Hendriks      11.333

Minor              9 

La Stella          6.5

Ramos             2

Bradley Jr        9

Total               $54.1m

diff  =             + $6.2m

Current payroll would be at ~$134m.  

RR has it at $132m but includes $5m over-estimate of 5 pre-arb players.  $132m - $5m + $6.2m = ~$134m. Anyway, under the $140 that  was expected.

Best in baseball, hands down!

 

I'll give you a good grade for effort, but you violated the rules by spending $6.2M more.

You also got McCann to sign an extension for less than he's getting now when you really didn't know if McCann was going to turn into what he's become. His second half of 2019 dropped off and he didn't have enough ABs in 2020 to know if it might have happened again.  You also just assume Keuchel is signing here with a catcher not noted for framing at the time he was signed.  

Mike Minor (of the 5.56 ERA) also tends to block either Cease's or Kopech's development.  La Stella tends to block Vaughn.  Ramos blocks Collins.  All three of those moves may put worse players on the field.  And you want to take Luis Robert out of center field? 

I think you choices would have weakened the team and cost more money. That's just my opinion. 

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54 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Jackie Bradley Jr., instead of Eaton

No Hendriks, money goes into a starter, let’s say Odorizzi, instead

Veteran back-up catcher 

Why do people -- it's not just you -- want a mediocre starter instead of an ace closer?  I can understand an argument that Hendriks contract is risky for being too long. But on a one-year basis, if you don't have a lock-down closer the rest of your bullpen suffers.   Who would the Sox use from within? Bummer? He was hurt early last year, and ineffective when he returned. Heuer? Maybe in a couple years, but he gave up the HR that started Oakland's comeback.  Crochet?  Isn't his value as a starter beyond this season?  And he also got hurt after only a handful of innings. 

Plus, a mediocre starter just gets in the way of the development of Cease and Kopech, who have far more upside than any starter the Sox could have signed for the $11M given to Hendriks.

Same thing for a backup catcher, who just blocks Collins and hits much worse than Collins is likely to once you give him some consistent ABs.

I wanted Kluber. At least you have upside with him if he's healthy and back to form. But I wouldn't have sacrificed multiple years of Hendriks for him. Plus, like Pederson, I doubt Kluber would have signed with us once the Yankees made him an offer. 

Edited by VAfan

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Vafan, you are way too worried about blocking unproven players. There will be injuries and plenty of playing time available this year.  Having quality depth though is more important than avoiding it due to wanting to leave spots open.

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*Lynn at $8 million is a bargain.  (reason why it cost them Dunning). 

*They got the best reliever in baseball. 

*Eaton doesn't do much for me, wish they would have gone with a better power bat option in RF

I give this offseason a B- so far.  

I'd be 100% fine without another acquisition $ being spent if it means a Giolito extension can happen.   It's getting very late there and if he's considered a CY candidate, say goodbye to getting him on a reasonable deal to stay here for the long run.    Offer him 5 yrs $80-$85  million right now.

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For all those who answered "NO", I would say you have undermined your ability to criticize the Sox' actual moves.

You can keep saying the Sox should spend more. I would have been happier if they spent more. 

But if you can't come up with defensively better moves on the budget the Sox have used, then you can't criticize them for what they chose to do. 

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8 minutes ago, VAfan said:

Why do people -- it's not just you -- want a mediocre starter instead of an ace closer?  I can understand an argument that Hendriks contract is risky for being too long. But on a one-year basis, if you don't have a lock-down closer the rest of your bullpen suffers.   Who would the Sox use from within? Bummer? He was hurt early last year, and ineffective when he returned. Heuer? Maybe in a couple years, but he gave up the HR that started Oakland's comeback.  Crochet?  Isn't his value as a starter beyond this season?  And he also got hurt after only a handful of innings. 

Plus, a mediocre starter just gets in the way of the development of Cease and Kopech, who have far more upside than any starter the Sox could have signed for the $11M given to Hendriks.

Same thing for a backup catcher, who just blocks Collins and hits much worse than Collins is likely to once you give him some consistent ABs.

I wanted Kluber. At least you have upside with him if he's healthy and back to form. But I wouldn't have sacrificed multiple years of Hendriks for him. Plus, like Pederson, I doubt Kluber would have signed with us once the Yankees made him an offer. 

Because there are eight innings that happen before the 9th.  There are also major holes in the starting rotation as it stands now, with some really good relievers already in the pen who  might have been able to step into the closers role, or someone cheaper out there to do that job.  Even a mediocre starter going to cover triple the innings that a closer will, and if the starters are bad, it doesn't matter how good your closer is.

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1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Jackie Bradley Jr., instead of Eaton

No Hendriks, money goes into a starter, let’s say Odorizzi, instead

Veteran back-up catcher 

Bradley over Eaton?   Ew...

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3 hours ago, soxfan18 said:

That's all part of the problem, though.  

Yes, Joc misread his market by turning that down, but the SOX also misread the market by being in such a fucking hurry to sign a RF, rather than waiting until these last couple of weeks when the bargains begun. 

Maybe Eaton would've taken less by now, and that extra money could've used on a better 5th starter than Rodon.  

Maybe they particularly wanted Eaton though. Not a lot of similar hitters playing right field were available

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No. I like the Hendriks signing but they brought the wrong former Sox back. Should have been Quintana, Flowers instead of Eaton and Rodon. Hendriks, Quintana, Flowers, Dahl, and Lynn would have been the same cost and I think better. Jerry sucks and his money is tight but Hahn sucks at using the money wisely, there is always millions wasted. Year after year.

Edited by Orlando
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3 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Bradley over Eaton?   Ew...

Bradley>Eaton 7 days a week.

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2 hours ago, fathom said:

Vafan, you are way too worried about blocking unproven players. There will be injuries and plenty of playing time available this year.  Having quality depth though is more important than avoiding it due to wanting to leave spots open.

I don't think so. 

If you signed a $10M starter, what do you do with them after 10 starts when they have run the service time clock on Kopech and he's ready to start?  You can't send them to the minors. They either have to push Dylan Cease out or sit in the bullpen where they out of place.  The Sox need manageable pitching depth that allows them to develop Cease and Kopech without some short-term veteran who may actually be worse getting in the way.

Same is true for Andrew Vaughn. Now, Nelson Cruz would be an upgrade. So would Brantley at this point. But you can't fit those guys into the budget the Sox have spent. We used Encarnacion last year, and it was a mistake. I have no doubt Vaughn would have been a better player than EE in 2020. 

Then there is Collins, who has been great in the minors, but poor in the majors. The problem with him is likely not being given a chance for anything close to enough ABs in the majors to find his form.  He's not a great defensive catcher, and may never be. As a backup, he should be fine.  Plus, because he's a lefty, why sign a lefty DH to pair with Vaughn? Why not just use Collins as a lefty DH at least some of the time?  It will likely accelerate his major league development. 

How does Tampa Bay compete? I haven't studied them closely, but given their payroll, I'm sure if they have a minor league guy ready for promotion, they don't jump in and sign a veteran (who if he's a cheap free agent is not a very good player) to get in that player's way.

If you have injuries, it's great to have depth. It's called AAA. 

Edited by VAfan

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6 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Because there are eight innings that happen before the 9th.  There are also major holes in the starting rotation as it stands now, with some really good relievers already in the pen who  might have been able to step into the closers role, or someone cheaper out there to do that job.  Even a mediocre starter going to cover triple the innings that a closer will, and if the starters are bad, it doesn't matter how good your closer is.

But if you can't close, it doesn't matter how good your starters are. Look at the Nationals. They had a terrible bullpen and it cost them a lot of games. They won the World Series because they got a closer (former White Sox player) and their manager only used about 7-8 pitchers in the postseason, including his 3rd starter in a number of relief appearances between starts.  

The mediocre starters you guys want to sign would actually never see the light of day in the postseason because they aren't good enough. 

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