Happy PECOTA Day!

[Kyyle23]

I feel so empty now 😢   Hit dog always barks.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

[southsider2k5]

 

[VAfan]

6 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Why wouldn't I follow? Are you only allowed to watch a team if you pretend that they're some world beater when they're not? They could see a lot of progression from young players; maybe Moncada bounces back; maybe Robert takes a step forward; maybe Vaughn dominates; maybe Kopech and Cease shock the world. The point of the rebuild was to not have a ton of "maybe's." The point was to supplement the young talent with some guarantees. That's why they tanked for years. The White Sox failed to do that, and now they're in a position where they aren't jockeying for World Series placement; instead they're jockeying for just a spot in the post season.

This is a fallacy. No one you advocated signing was any more of a "guarantee" than the player or players the Sox have decided to move forward with. 

And, if your rebuttal is Springer and Bauer, then you aren't living in reality. 

[fathom]

9 minutes ago, VAfan said:

This is a fallacy. No one you advocated signing was any more of a "guarantee" than the player or players the Sox have decided to move forward with. 

And, if your rebuttal is Springer and Bauer, then you aren't living in reality. 

Nelson Cruz for this season over Vaughn and Collins is an easy pick. 

[VAfan]

6 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Who has said the team sucks?

I'm pretty sure people are merely disappointed that after a 4 year rebuild in which the Sox promised to get rid of all the maybe's and help the young stars grow as a winning roster, we're back to being the same team that needs a lot to go right - better than expected - to be a top tier team in the AL. The Sox can be fun to watch, and exciting, and fans can still be disappointed in how this is all shaking out. I'm, for one, excited for the season but I also don't think the Sox are a shoe in for the playoffs and they had a chance of being just that but decided to not invest in that opportunity. 

Helping the "young stars grow" includes letting them play -- including Andrew Vaughn, Michael Kopech, and Zack Collins, along with Luis Robert, Nick Madrigal, Dylan Cease, Garrett Crochet, and Codi Heuer, 

Will all of those players instantly click like young vets Tim Anderson and Eloy Jimenez do now? No. But if you don't give them the opportunity, they won't be where you need them to be by the end of 2021, or 2022 and beyond.  

The Sox are not a shoe in for the playoffs, nor would they be if they had added a couple marginal vets. They added EE last year and he was a complete bust. Same with Gio. They would have been better off with Vaughn last year.  

But the Sox are legitimate favorites to win the AL Central, regardless of PECOTA or any other projection system. 

[VAfan]

5 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I hope Madrigal and Cease are amazing; Cease is an easy guy to root for and I like Madrigal but was absolutely disappointed in his mental mistakes last year. He really can't afford many of those. I don't think anyone needs to root for Eaton to fail to prove that was a crappy signing. The team shouldn't be signing "hopes" and "maybes" to fill giant lineup holes when they're trying to win a championship. 

Who were the right fielders who signed as free agents? There were only 2 - Eaton and Pederson. Pederson turned down the Sox superior offer and ended up settling with the Cubs much later. That left Eaton.  Who else were the Sox supposed to sign?

Mazara? Obviously not.

Springer? At that price? Plus, he's a center fielder. 

Jackie Bradley, Jr? Another center fielder. 

Eddie Rosario? Not a competent right fielder. 

There were quite a few options at LF this year. Almost none in RF. The Sox did what they could. 

[VAfan]

4 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Fair enough; you're certainly entitled to your opinion. Saying the Astros are for sure worse than the White Sox doesn't jive with almost any projection system. Whether PECOTA, FG's, or the countless others. It's actually not even all that close. When the W/L totals release the Astros will also be ahead of the White Sox there as well. I can definitely buy the Indians - the offense is just so rough - and the Angels are boom or bust so a lot of risk and variance there. But the Astros, as of today, are a better baseball team than the White Sox IMO.

Right. Even though last year they were 6 games worse than the White Sox and have lost their best player. We outscored them by 27 and gave up 29 fewer runs. But they are somehow better?? 

[VAfan]

19 minutes ago, fathom said:

Nelson Cruz for this season over Vaughn and Collins is an easy pick. 

Nelson Cruz is just as much of a fantasy. Who's to say Cruz would sign with the Sox for what the Twins paid? Do you want to spend $15M for Nelson Cruz in order to stunt Andrew Vaughn, who the Sox need not just for 2021, but beyond? I mean, if you push Vaughn off for another year, won't there be some other free agent DH possibility to shove in front of Vaughn again?  

If the Sox had $15M, they should have invested it in someone other than Nelson Cruz. Cruz was a Sox killer in 2019, but in 2020 after the opening series, the Sox shut him down. 

[michelangelosmonkey]

39 minutes ago, fathom said:

Nelson Cruz for this season over Vaughn and Collins is an easy pick. 

As a guarantee???   41 year old DH???  Our mistake was not in failing to sign Cruz...it was signing EE last year where Soxtalk was making the same guarantees about him and his greatness.  This is such nonsense about "eliminating the maybe's".  There are a grand total of zero times that don't have questions marks.   And signing Tyler Flowers and Nelson Cruz and Q and the other suggestions is holding back young super talent guys for the sake of a bunch of old formerly talented guys...possibly because that will allow us to continue talking about our curse of signing old players who suddenly become bad.   I think going all in should mean going all in with the young guys...Dynasty or bust.     

[South Side Hit Men]

I created this thread last week, when PECOTA projections were player only, without the Team Depth Chart Standings available.

My initial thoughts of the current 83-79 heading into this season:

1. I do believe PECOTA projections (based on 50 percentile for individual and team projections) will experience a greater deviation to the mean 50% projection than previous seasons, due in large part to the first time nature of the tool's first (and hopefully last) time accommodating the 2020 60 game schedule debacle.
2. I recall the Cubs (Theo in particular) and their fans going apeshit regarding the 2017 projections of a 91 win season as being far too low (they finished 92-70) after the World Series. Preseason projected wins are not certain by any means, but more often than not when the Vegas line and PECOTA deviate by 5 +/- wins, it typically indicates the betting public is over or undervaluing teams, and baring significant acquisitions or key injuries, it typically is wise to take the overlay and go against the public for value and profit.
3. I do agree with most here the Sox will likely outperform their current 83 win projection, but would take the under in their winning percentage future odds of 90.5 wins (162 game season)/.559 winning percentage). There is a chance the White Sox can top Rick Renteria's great 2020 .583 winning percentage (aided by the imbalanced schedule) between 2022-2024. The lack of depth and also the fact several of their young core hitters (Eloy, Robert and Madrigal) and pitchers (Cease, Kopech and Crochet) will be attempting to play a 162 game season for the first time, with likely growing pains that will come along the way.

 

[Balta1701]

46 minutes ago, VAfan said:

Who were the right fielders who signed as free agents? There were only 2 - Eaton and Pederson. Pederson turned down the Sox superior offer and ended up settling with the Cubs much later. That left Eaton.  Who else were the Sox supposed to sign?

Mazara? Obviously not.

Springer? At that price? Plus, he's a center fielder. 

Jackie Bradley, Jr? Another center fielder. 

Eddie Rosario? Not a competent right fielder. 

There were quite a few options at LF this year. Almost none in RF. The Sox did what they could. 

Springer was a perfect fit for this team and the exact kind of player the White Sox should have been targeting at the end of a rebuild. Serious playoff experience, in fact one of the best performers in recent playoff history (perhaps with some assistance). Would be an excellent defender in RF, and could cover CF adequately if Robert were injured. Calling him a CF as though it's a knock on him, wtf? His contract wound up comparable to what we would have guessed it would be 2-3 years ago, so there's no big sticker shock. While he's right handed, he also has hit righties better than lefties the last 2 seasons, so he'd be a perfect fit early in this lineup as it would almost be a trap against a team bringing in a righty against the lineup.

[Eminor3rd]

9 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Projection systems that have the White Sox as the 8th best team in the AL can be disregarded. What a bunch of nonsense.

Why? If you factor in regression from the obvious candidates like Keuchel and Abreu, the extreme risk of Robert, and the fact that no projection system knows how to factor COVID-19 into the equation for Moncada, you need pretty major improvement from Jimenez/Madrigal/Cease to break even.

Meanwhile, how much better did the team get over the offseason? They traded a 2.5 win pitcher for a 3.5 win pitcher, and added an elite closer to replace an unbelievable 0.81 ERA from Colome. Even though Hendriks is clearly better than Colome, do you think you're going to get a 0.81 ERA out of him?

I've been saying it, but I'll say it again -- the front office essentially treaded water with this offseason if you factor in the losses. The team could win it all, but it's going to take additional upside from the young stars and near perfect health.

Edited February 10, 2021 by Eminor3rd

[Chicago White Sox]

On 2/1/2021 at 5:59 PM, South Side Hit Men said:

Baseball Prospectus released PECOTA projections today. Below are players projections at the 50 percentile rate.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/64332/pecota-2021-short-seasons-variance-and-collaboration/

Three projections presented: OPS & WARP = Baseball Prospectus WAR Projections + Comparable (Player at respective Age)

• C Grandal .790 / 4.7 Jorge Posada
• CF Robert .732 / 3.2 Victor Robles
• 1B Abreu .849 / 2.9 Cecil Fielder
• 2B Madrigal .756 / 2.7 Breyvic Valera
• LF Jimenez .834 / 2.6 Pete Incaviglia
• 3B Moncada .759 / 2.3 Brandon Lowe
• SS Anderson .732 / 2.0 Dale Svuem
• RF Eaton .711 / 1.9 Lloyd Moseby

fip / WARP / Comparable (Player at respective Age)

• Giolito 3.96 / 2.9 / Jose Berrios
• Lynn 4.34 / 2.0 / Francisco Liriano
• Keuchel 4.41 / 1.4 / Garrett Richards
• Hendricks 3.17 / 1.3 / Tommy Hunter
• Kopech 4.80 / 0.9 / Trevor Bauer <== Jerry gave you Trevor Bauer afterall
• Rodon 4.89 / 0.5 / Daniel Mengden
• Cease 5.01/ 0.4 / Reynaldo Lopez <== Double the fun!!!
• Lopez 5.11 / 0.0 / Jose Berrios <== And two Berrios

 

Some of these projections are simply way too conservative.  Without question Robert, Moncada, Eloy, Anderson, Giolito, Lynn, & Keuchel will blow their numbers out of the water assuming they are relatively healthy.  No reason to lose sleep over another insanely conservative projection model.

[Chicago White Sox]

28 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

Why? If you factor in regression from the obvious candidates like Keuchel and Abreu, the extreme risk of Robert, and the fact that no projection system knows how to factor COVID-19 into the equation for Moncada, you need pretty major improvement from Jimenez/Madrigal/Cease to break even.

Meanwhile, how much better did the team get over the offseason? They traded a 2.5 win pitcher for a 3.5 win pitcher, and added an elite closer to replace an unbelievable 0.81 ERA from Colome. Even though Hendriks is clearly better than Colome, do you think you're going to get a 0.81 ERA out of him?

I've been saying it, but I'll say it again -- the front office essentially treaded water with this offseason if you factor in the losses. The team could win it all, but it's going to take additional upside from the young stars and near perfect health.

Why is Robert an extreme risk?  Even as a league average hitter last year he was on pace to be a 4 win player do to his elite defense.  IMO, he has too much natural ability to be much worse than that in his sophomore year.

[Eminor3rd]

30 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Why is Robert an extreme risk?  Even as a league average hitter last year he was on pace to be a 4 win player do to his elite defense.  IMO, he has too much natural ability to be much worse than that in his sophomore year.

Calling him a "league-average hitter" misses the context entirely. He started out unstoppable, then became abysmal. He was swinging at absolutely everything the whole time. This suggests that league adjusted to him, and he needs to adjust back. Given that he's never had to do that, it's very much in question how quickly (if at all) he can accomplish it. His performance this year is very risky.

[KrankinSox]

14 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

Calling him a "league-average hitter" misses the context entirely. He started out unstoppable, then became abysmal. He was swinging at absolutely everything the whole time. This suggests that league adjusted to him, and he needs to adjust back. Given that he's never had to do that, it's very much in question how quickly (if at all) he can accomplish it. His performance this year is very risky.

And then he started clicking again going into the playoffs. Do you remember his 480+ foot blast in Game 3? 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

29 minutes ago, KrankinSox said:

And then he started clicking again going into the playoffs. Do you remember his 480+ foot blast in Game 3? 

He had a tough 2-3 week stretch in September but had a huge series against the Cubs the final series of the regular season and then a very good playoff series against the A’s. Calling Robert “risky” or whatever is lazy. He has one of the highest floors of any player on this team based on his defense alone.

[Y2Jimmy0]

2 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

Why? If you factor in regression from the obvious candidates like Keuchel and Abreu, the extreme risk of Robert, and the fact that no projection system knows how to factor COVID-19 into the equation for Moncada, you need pretty major improvement from Jimenez/Madrigal/Cease to break even.

Meanwhile, how much better did the team get over the offseason? They traded a 2.5 win pitcher for a 3.5 win pitcher, and added an elite closer to replace an unbelievable 0.81 ERA from Colome. Even though Hendriks is clearly better than Colome, do you think you're going to get a 0.81 ERA out of him?

I've been saying it, but I'll say it again -- the front office essentially treaded water with this offseason if you factor in the losses. The team could win it all, but it's going to take additional upside from the young stars and near perfect health.

Do you think 7 AL teams should have higher median outcomes than the White Sox? Hendriks is a big upgrade on Colome. It’s not just about the ninth inning. Hendriks put up a 4 fWAR season in 2019. Multi inning weapon capable of 3 wins as a reliever. Lynn is exactly what they needed. Some areas of possible regression but lots more of significant upside. ALC will be a battle with Twins and Sox but the Sox are one of the top teams in the AL. Covid and no minors basically tainted the data sample so the Pecota projections are pretty much useless for a team with as much potential variance as White Sox. I think Vegas is more in line with what’s expected and those who agree with Pecota should be running to pound the under at betting sites 

Edited February 10, 2021 by Y2Jimmy0

[TomPickle]

6 hours ago, OmarComing25 said:

They have the Sox only scoring 11 runs more than the Indians. Also how are the median projected wins at 83 if the run differential is projected to be -10?

I'm just guessing here, but it probably has to do with a combination of the Tigers and Royals both still being terrible and an ability to outperform their pythagorean win expectancy due to their very good bullpen.

[Orlando]

These projections have me sick to my stomach. 

[caulfield12]

4 hours ago, VAfan said:

Right. Even though last year they were 6 games worse than the White Sox and have lost their best player. We outscored them by 27 and gave up 29 fewer runs. But they are somehow better?? 

Strength of competition difference... 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 hours ago, VAfan said:

This is a fallacy. No one you advocated signing was any more of a "guarantee" than the player or players the Sox have decided to move forward with. 

And, if your rebuttal is Springer and Bauer, then you aren't living in reality. 

 

5 hours ago, VAfan said:

Helping the "young stars grow" includes letting them play -- including Andrew Vaughn, Michael Kopech, and Zack Collins, along with Luis Robert, Nick Madrigal, Dylan Cease, Garrett Crochet, and Codi Heuer, 

Will all of those players instantly click like young vets Tim Anderson and Eloy Jimenez do now? No. But if you don't give them the opportunity, they won't be where you need them to be by the end of 2021, or 2022 and beyond.  

The Sox are not a shoe in for the playoffs, nor would they be if they had added a couple marginal vets. They added EE last year and he was a complete bust. Same with Gio. They would have been better off with Vaughn last year.  

But the Sox are legitimate favorites to win the AL Central, regardless of PECOTA or any other projection system. 

 

5 hours ago, VAfan said:

Who were the right fielders who signed as free agents? There were only 2 - Eaton and Pederson. Pederson turned down the Sox superior offer and ended up settling with the Cubs much later. That left Eaton.  Who else were the Sox supposed to sign?

Mazara? Obviously not.

Springer? At that price? Plus, he's a center fielder. 

Jackie Bradley, Jr? Another center fielder. 

Eddie Rosario? Not a competent right fielder. 

There were quite a few options at LF this year. Almost none in RF. The Sox did what they could. 

 

5 hours ago, VAfan said:

Right. Even though last year they were 6 games worse than the White Sox and have lost their best player. We outscored them by 27 and gave up 29 fewer runs. But they are somehow better?? 

K

Edited February 10, 2021 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Strength of competition difference... 

Honestly, I don't think people remember how weak the offenses were that the White Sox faced last year and their back end of the rotation still got murdered. 

Having the Indians in the division helped them face some elite pitching but they didn't exactly light the Indians up. 

People hate projections that don't like their team, I get it, but to say that the projections are absurd and our opinions are superior without substantiating it is just lazy.

Edited February 10, 2021 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[bmags]

man it is really rich after the offseason we just experienced to say "who could the sox have signed to make them better?" nick freidell style lol

anyway as I said I think sox will be fine, but if you want to hack the regular season you get a lot of good depth as we've been saying, and sox decided to thread the needle trying to only buy exactly what was needed.

That leaves possibilities that our weak depth is actually strong, esp. in rotation. It is very possible.

But it's also very possible it craters and undermines our bullpen. It is a possibility.

[Chicago White Sox]

5 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Honestly, I don't think people remember how weak the offenses were that the White Sox faced last year and their back end of the rotation still got murdered. 

Having the Indians in the division helped them face some elite pitching but they didn't exactly light the Indians up. 

People hate projections that don't like their team, I get it, but to say that the projections are absurd and our opinions are superior without substantiating it is just lazy.

I think we have many players who are ascending and it appears Pecota is weighted too heavily on career vs. recent performance.  For example, Tim Anderson is much better than a 2  win player and basic scouting over the past two years would support that notion.  Unless you think he’ll forever be hampered by COVID, then Yoan’s projection should be more heavily weighted on his 2019 production than anything else.  And how in the world could any model predict 5 wins total as the median outcome for Giolito & Lynn?  Hopefully I’m reading something wrong here, because if true that’s just plain embarrassing.