South Side Hit Men 2,169 Posted February 1, 2021 Baseball Prospectus released PECOTA projections today. Below are players projections at the 50 percentile rate. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/64332/pecota-2021-short-seasons-variance-and-collaboration/ Three projections presented: OPS & WARP = Baseball Prospectus WAR Projections + Comparable (Player at respective Age) C Grandal .790 / 4.7 Jorge Posada CF Robert .732 / 3.2 Victor Robles 1B Abreu .849 / 2.9 Cecil Fielder 2B Madrigal .756 / 2.7 Breyvic Valera LF Jimenez .834 / 2.6 Pete Incaviglia 3B Moncada .759 / 2.3 Brandon Lowe SS Anderson .732 / 2.0 Dale Svuem RF Eaton .711 / 1.9 Lloyd Moseby fip / WARP / Comparable (Player at respective Age) Giolito 3.96 / 2.9 / Jose Berrios Lynn 4.34 / 2.0 / Francisco Liriano Keuchel 4.41 / 1.4 / Garrett Richards Hendricks 3.17 / 1.3 / Tommy Hunter Kopech 4.80 / 0.9 / Trevor Bauer <== Jerry gave you Trevor Bauer afterall Rodon 4.89 / 0.5 / Daniel Mengden Cease 5.01/ 0.4 / Reynaldo Lopez <== Double the fun!!! Lopez 5.11 / 0.0 / Jose Berrios <== And two Berrios 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Soxbadger 774 Posted February 2, 2021 Where's our Liriano? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bmags 8,356 Posted February 2, 2021 Those comps aren’t real people Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
chitownsportsfan 4,722 Posted February 2, 2021 Man how the mighty have fallen. Lotta competition for B-Pro these days and PECOTA is just one projection system in a sea of them. Used to be a real event back in the early aughts. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
South Side Hit Men 2,169 Posted February 2, 2021 fWAR Steamer vs. WARP projections for remaining free agents with over 1.0 projected fWAR 1.0 + differences in bold Trevor Bauer 3.8 vs. 2.8 (fWAR Loves) Justin Turner 3.1 vs. 3.3 Marcell Ozuna 2.9 vs. 3.1 James Paxton 2.1 vs. 2.1 Kolton Wong 1.9 vs. 3.2 (PECOTA Loves) Rick Porcello 1.8 vs. 0.8 (fWAR Loves) Chris Archer 1.7 vs. 1.4 Jake Odorizzi 1.7 vs. 1.3 Matt Shoemaker 1.5 vs. 0.2 (fWAR Loves) Yodier Molina 1.3 vs. 1.1 Jackie Bradley Jr. 1.2 vs. 1.1 Taijuan Walker 1.2 vs. 0.8 Brett Anderson 1.2 vs. 0.5 Nelson Cruz 1.2 vs. 2.8 (PECOTA Loves) Brett Gardner 1.1 vs. 1.7 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
HOFHurt35 1,127 Posted February 2, 2021 .759 / 2.3 from Moncada ..... that's no bueno. Need superstar status from him. Like .850 / 4.8 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sambuca 231 Posted February 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, HOFHurt35 said: .759 / 2.3 from Moncada ..... that's no bueno. Need superstar status from him. Like .850 / 4.8 Too late. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KrankinSox 985 Posted February 2, 2021 17 minutes ago, Sambuca said: Too late. Too late? As in like when he did it 15 months ago? 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sambuca 231 Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, KrankinSox said: Too late? As in like when he did it 15 months ago? Is 15 months ago PECOTA? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KrankinSox 985 Posted February 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, Sambuca said: Is 15 months ago PECOTA? Are you suggesting it's too late for Moncada to put up an .850 4.8 war season? Because PECOTA says so? 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sambuca 231 Posted February 2, 2021 24 minutes ago, KrankinSox said: Are you suggesting it's too late for Moncada to put up an .850 4.8 war season? Because PECOTA says so? I’m not suggesting anything, just joshing. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sambuca 231 Posted February 2, 2021 I got Moncada with at least a .900 OPS this season. 2 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vulture 713 Posted February 2, 2021 Anderson and Robert at .732? I think I’ll take the over on those. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
FriendlyNorthsider 114 Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, Vulture said: Anderson and Robert at .732? I think I’ll take the over on those. Ill take a solid OVER on Anderson, Robert, and TA and a healthy healthy under on Nick Madrigal. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dominikk85 643 Posted February 2, 2021 I also think anderson is too low. He is a regression candidate but depth charts has him at .774 (from 886), 730 is just too low. Also I think lynn and giolito are too low, I'm thinking high 3s for lynn and mid 3s or even lower for giolito. Keuchel sounds about right but moncada I'm hoping for like low 800s. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CaliSoxFanViaSWside 3,457 Posted February 2, 2021 10 hours ago, Vulture said: Anderson and Robert at .732? I think I’ll take the over on those. They have Madrigal with a higher OPS than Robert which is pretty hard to believe. However it did happen last year as I pointed out a while ago. But over a long season theres no way that happens. Robert would have to hit like he did when he slumped last year for multiple months. I think there's a good chance he moves forward in a highly positive way this year. It would help tremendously. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CaliSoxFanViaSWside 3,457 Posted February 2, 2021 13 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said: I also think anderson is too low. He is a regression candidate but depth charts has him at .774 (from 886), 730 is just too low. Also I think lynn and giolito are too low, I'm thinking high 3s for lynn and mid 3s or even lower for giolito. Keuchel sounds about right but moncada I'm hoping for like low 800s. Surprising they give Keuchel such a bad FIP . He has had only 2 seasons his whole career with an FIP worse than 4.41 and one was his rookie year and the other was the short season with Atlanta. They must be highly conservative giving 2 semi older pitchers like Keuchel and Lynn so much regression coming off very good seasons. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CaliSoxFanViaSWside 3,457 Posted February 2, 2021 If the PECOTA stuff is to be believed those numbers don't exactly look like playoff numbers so Fuck Pecota. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dominikk85 643 Posted February 2, 2021 21 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said: Surprising they give Keuchel such a bad FIP . He has had only 2 seasons his whole career with an FIP worse than 4.41 and one was his rookie year and the other was the short season with Atlanta. They must be highly conservative giving 2 semi older pitchers like Keuchel and Lynn so much regression coming off very good seasons. Keuchel had a .28 hr/9 rate. I do believe he can stay under 1 which is great these days but .3 is probably not attainable in a full season. I would be ok with a low 4s for keuchel, I think 4.4 is a bit high, maybe more like 4.1 or so. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Balta1701 5,077 Posted February 9, 2021 PECOTA record projections are out today. White Sox mean of simulated records is 83-79, good for 3rd in the AL Central. Tampa Bay takes second Wild Card, Toronto and Cleveland also finish ahead of white Sox. There’s a handy little chart of probability of finishes if anyone can excerpt it. Dodgers projection of 102.9 wins is about the highest PECOTA has ever popped out. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/ 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Look at Ray Ray Run 7,081 Posted February 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: PECOTA record projections are out today. White Sox mean of simulated records is 83-79, good for 3rd in the AL Central. Tampa Bay takes second Wild Card, Toronto and Cleveland also finish ahead of white Sox. There’s a handy little chart of probability of finishes if anyone can excerpt it. Dodgers projection of 102.9 wins is about the highest PECOTA has ever popped out. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/ But the White Sox are a big time world series contender and they have the best team in the AL and all the fans upset about not signing FA's are just negative. What a disappointing off season this was. Not even above Cleveland. Smh. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Harold's Leg Lift 2,161 Posted February 9, 2021 I didn't know baseball prospectus was still around. Good for them. 1 2 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Y2Jimmy0 2,595 Posted February 9, 2021 1 hour ago, Balta1701 said: PECOTA record projections are out today. White Sox mean of simulated records is 83-79, good for 3rd in the AL Central. Tampa Bay takes second Wild Card, Toronto and Cleveland also finish ahead of white Sox. There’s a handy little chart of probability of finishes if anyone can excerpt it. Dodgers projection of 102.9 wins is about the highest PECOTA has ever popped out. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/ Projection systems that have the White Sox as the 8th best team in the AL can be disregarded. What a bunch of nonsense. 4 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CaliSoxFanViaSWside 3,457 Posted February 9, 2021 (edited) On 2/2/2021 at 5:02 AM, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said: If the PECOTA stuff is to be believed those numbers don't exactly look like playoff numbers so Fuck Pecota. 1 hour ago, Balta1701 said: PECOTA record projections are out today. White Sox mean of simulated records is 83-79, good for 3rd in the AL Central. Tampa Bay takes second Wild Card, Toronto and Cleveland also finish ahead of white Sox. There’s a handy little chart of probability of finishes if anyone can excerpt it. Dodgers projection of 102.9 wins is about the highest PECOTA has ever popped out. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/ See. I told you that before Pecota did . They have the Cubs finishing with a better record than the Sox. Edited February 9, 2021 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CentralChamps21 1,793 Posted February 9, 2021 Didn't PECOTA project the Sox to win something like 75 games in 2005? 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
