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South Side Hit Men

Happy PECOTA Day!

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Baseball Prospectus released PECOTA projections today. Below are players projections at the 50 percentile rate.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/64332/pecota-2021-short-seasons-variance-and-collaboration/

Three projections presented: OPS & WARP = Baseball Prospectus WAR Projections + Comparable (Player at respective Age)

  • Grandal .790 / 4.7 Jorge Posada
  • CF Robert .732 / 3.2 Victor Robles
  • 1B Abreu .849 / 2.9 Cecil Fielder
  • 2B Madrigal .756 / 2.7 Breyvic Valera
  • LF Jimenez .834 / 2.6 Pete Incaviglia
  • 3B Moncada .759 / 2.3 Brandon Lowe
  • SS Anderson .732 / 2.0 Dale Svuem
  • RF Eaton .711 / 1.9 Lloyd Moseby

fip / WARP / Comparable (Player at respective Age)

  • Giolito 3.96 / 2.9 / Jose Berrios
  • Lynn 4.34 / 2.0 / Francisco Liriano
  • Keuchel 4.41 / 1.4 / Garrett Richards
  • Hendricks 3.17 / 1.3 / Tommy Hunter
  • Kopech 4.80 / 0.9 / Trevor Bauer <== Jerry gave you Trevor Bauer afterall
  • Rodon 4.89 / 0.5 / Daniel Mengden
  • Cease 5.01/ 0.4 / Reynaldo Lopez <== Double the fun!!!
  • Lopez 5.11 / 0.0 / Jose Berrios <== And two Berrios

 

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Those comps aren’t real people 

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Man how the mighty have fallen.  Lotta competition for B-Pro these days and PECOTA is just one projection system in a sea of them.  Used to be a real event back in the early aughts.

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fWAR Steamer vs. WARP projections for remaining free agents with over 1.0 projected fWAR

1.0 + differences in bold

  • Trevor Bauer 3.8 vs. 2.8 (fWAR Loves)
  • Justin Turner 3.1 vs. 3.3
  • Marcell Ozuna 2.9 vs. 3.1
  • James Paxton 2.1 vs. 2.1
  • Kolton Wong 1.9 vs. 3.2 (PECOTA Loves)
  • Rick Porcello 1.8 vs. 0.8 (fWAR Loves)
  • Chris Archer 1.7 vs. 1.4
  • Jake Odorizzi 1.7 vs. 1.3
  • Matt Shoemaker 1.5 vs. 0.2 (fWAR Loves)
  • Yodier Molina 1.3 vs. 1.1
  • Jackie Bradley Jr. 1.2 vs. 1.1
  • Taijuan Walker 1.2 vs. 0.8
  • Brett Anderson 1.2 vs. 0.5
  • Nelson Cruz 1.2 vs. 2.8 (PECOTA Loves)
  • Brett Gardner 1.1 vs. 1.7

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.759 / 2.3 from Moncada ..... that's no bueno.  

Need superstar status from him.   Like  .850 / 4.8

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4 minutes ago, HOFHurt35 said:

.759 / 2.3 from Moncada ..... that's no bueno.  

Need superstar status from him.   Like  .850 / 4.8

Too late.

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2 minutes ago, KrankinSox said:

Too late? As in like when he did it 15 months ago?

Is 15 months ago PECOTA?

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3 minutes ago, Sambuca said:

Is 15 months ago PECOTA?

Are you suggesting it's too late for Moncada to put up an .850 4.8 war season? Because PECOTA says so?

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24 minutes ago, KrankinSox said:

Are you suggesting it's too late for Moncada to put up an .850 4.8 war season? Because PECOTA says so?

I’m not suggesting anything, just joshing.  

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1 hour ago, Vulture said:

Anderson and Robert at .732? I think I’ll take the over on those.

Ill take a solid OVER on Anderson, Robert, and TA and a healthy healthy under on Nick Madrigal.

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I also think anderson is too low. He is a regression candidate but depth charts has him at .774 (from 886), 730 is just too low.

Also I think lynn and giolito are too low, I'm thinking high 3s for lynn and mid 3s or even lower for giolito.

 

Keuchel sounds about right but moncada I'm hoping for like low 800s.

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10 hours ago, Vulture said:

Anderson and Robert at .732? I think I’ll take the over on those.

They have Madrigal with a higher OPS than Robert which is pretty hard to believe. However it did happen last year as I pointed out a while ago. But over a long season theres no way that happens. Robert would have to hit like he did when he slumped last year for multiple months. I think there's a good chance he moves forward in a highly positive way this year. It would help tremendously.

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13 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

I also think anderson is too low. He is a regression candidate but depth charts has him at .774 (from 886), 730 is just too low.

Also I think lynn and giolito are too low, I'm thinking high 3s for lynn and mid 3s or even lower for giolito.

 

Keuchel sounds about right but moncada I'm hoping for like low 800s.

Surprising they give Keuchel such a bad FIP . He has had only 2 seasons his whole career with an FIP  worse than 4.41 and one was his rookie year and the other was the short season with Atlanta. They must be highly conservative giving 2 semi older pitchers like Keuchel and Lynn so much regression coming off very good seasons.

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21 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Surprising they give Keuchel such a bad FIP . He has had only 2 seasons his whole career with an FIP  worse than 4.41 and one was his rookie year and the other was the short season with Atlanta. They must be highly conservative giving 2 semi older pitchers like Keuchel and Lynn so much regression coming off very good seasons.

Keuchel had a .28 hr/9 rate. I do believe he can stay under 1 which is great these days but .3 is probably not attainable in a full season.

I would be ok with a low 4s for keuchel, I think 4.4 is a bit high, maybe more like 4.1 or so.

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PECOTA record projections are out today. White Sox mean of simulated records is 83-79, good for 3rd in the AL Central. Tampa Bay takes second Wild Card, Toronto and Cleveland also finish ahead of white Sox. There’s a handy little chart of probability of finishes if anyone can excerpt it.

Dodgers projection of 102.9 wins is about the highest PECOTA has ever popped out.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

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8 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

PECOTA record projections are out today. White Sox mean of simulated records is 83-79, good for 3rd in the AL Central. Tampa Bay takes second Wild Card, Toronto and Cleveland also finish ahead of white Sox. There’s a handy little chart of probability of finishes if anyone can excerpt it.

Dodgers projection of 102.9 wins is about the highest PECOTA has ever popped out.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

But the White Sox are a big time world series contender and they have the best team in the AL and all the fans upset about not signing FA's are just negative. 

What a disappointing off season this was. Not even above Cleveland. Smh.

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1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

PECOTA record projections are out today. White Sox mean of simulated records is 83-79, good for 3rd in the AL Central. Tampa Bay takes second Wild Card, Toronto and Cleveland also finish ahead of white Sox. There’s a handy little chart of probability of finishes if anyone can excerpt it.

Dodgers projection of 102.9 wins is about the highest PECOTA has ever popped out.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

Projection systems that have the White Sox as the 8th best team in the AL can be disregarded. What a bunch of nonsense.

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On 2/2/2021 at 5:02 AM, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

If the PECOTA stuff is to be believed those numbers don't exactly look like playoff numbers so Fuck Pecota.

 

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

PECOTA record projections are out today. White Sox mean of simulated records is 83-79, good for 3rd in the AL Central. Tampa Bay takes second Wild Card, Toronto and Cleveland also finish ahead of white Sox. There’s a handy little chart of probability of finishes if anyone can excerpt it.

Dodgers projection of 102.9 wins is about the highest PECOTA has ever popped out.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

See. I told you that before Pecota did .

They have the Cubs finishing with a better record than the Sox.

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

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