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maxjusttyped

Kiley McDaniel's top 100 prospects - 4 White Sox in top 100

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2 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

He doesn't know what he's looking at.

There must be hit/miss stats on these predictors.  You sound so confident on Keith Law...I really think he's a smart guy and I like to read his write ups but the others are interesting too.  Philosophically I get that you prefer one fortune teller over another but really...we are talking about guessing the future so without some sort of comparative batting average why would we care?     

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14 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

There must be hit/miss stats on these predictors.  You sound so confident on Keith Law...I really think he's a smart guy and I like to read his write ups but the others are interesting too.  Philosophically I get that you prefer one fortune teller over another but really...we are talking about guessing the future so without some sort of comparative batting average why would we care?     

Evaluators don't guess.  Law is an evaluator.  The others are not.  

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3 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Evaluators don't guess.  Law is an evaluator.  The others are not.  

So he "evaluates" the unknowable future and the others guess about the unknowable future.  My question was...are his evaluations more likely to be correct than the guessers?   Seems like this would be something that is trackable.  Measurement of career fWar by his ranking?  Keith Law has been doing this for 15 years.  Do we KNOW he is better than the guessers?  Do we KNOW he's not predisposed to favor or dislike an organization?     I suspect someone has done this...and if Keith Law is great at this it would be worth considering.   I remember loving Mel Kiper and then someone tracked it and his hit rate was terrible.   

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Just now, michelangelosmonkey said:

So he "evaluates" the unknowable future and the others guess about the unknowable future.  My question was...are his evaluations more likely to be correct than the guessers?   Seems like this would be something that is trackable.  Measurement of career fWar by his ranking?  Keith Law has been doing this for 15 years.  Do we KNOW he is better than the guessers?  Do we KNOW he's not predisposed to favor or dislike an organization?     I suspect someone has done this...and if Keith Law is great at this it would be worth considering.   I remember loving Mel Kiper and then someone tracked it and his hit rate was terrible.   

Since the Sale debacle, Law has been pretty damn accurate with Sox prospects.

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5 minutes ago, fathom said:

Since the Sale debacle, Law has been pretty damn accurate with Sox prospects.

That's not even an argument.  Seems like he was pretty wrong on Beckham...who was the first guy I looked at as a rookie after Sale.  Did he foresee Quintana's near greatness?   I found (its hard to search outside KL outside the ESPN paywall) where six years ago he didn't have Tim Anderson in his top 50 list but had Rodon at 12.  Still a few individual data points don't even matter...the question is given his 15 years of rating 100 guys...last five year probably too soon to tell...so 10 years, 1000 players (and thousands unrated) was he good at it? Better than others?   Just loudly saying he's the best at something isn't that convincing.  

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IIRC, Law lampooned White Sox brass for trading Tatis immediately.

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36 minutes ago, oldsox said:

IIRC, Law lampooned White Sox brass for trading Tatis immediately.

Yeah I am not going to go as far as some have to stan for Law, but in the case of Tatis, he was by far the first prospect guy to be talking about Jr.

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38 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Yeah I am not going to go as far as some have to stan for Law, but in the case of Tatis, he was by far the first prospect guy to be talking about Jr.

I think the first guy to dislike Robert too.  

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