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South Side Hit Men

Andrew Vaughn Article - 3B/OF and Opening Day considerations

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3 hours ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

I think the bottom line is we'd have to know more about the Padres' scouting of Tatis, and their decisionmaking process in that trade, to be able to evaluate how much was scouting and how much was luck.  It's possible they had him pegged as a star and couldn't believe their luck when we were stupid enough to trade him.  It's possible they basically picked his name out of a hat, thought no more of him than we did, and were as shocked as we were when they saw what they had.  It's possible they were at any number of points on the spectrum between those extremes.  I don't know enough to know, but I think it's fair to say there was a substantial element of "surprise" in Tatis's outperformance of his perceived value as of 2016.

https://theathletic.com/884960/2019/03/25/everybody-was-surprised-but-here-we-are-an-oral-history-of-how-the-padres-acquired-fernando-tatis-jr/

And here's your answer...

 

https://theathletic.com/2395904/2021/02/18/padres-fernando-tatis-extension-lebron-james/

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2 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

You'd be correct if the trade made sense, at all, at the time. Unfortunately James Shields was a bad idea even then. He was one year into his joke of a free agent deal, already 35 years old and coming off a year where he pitched over 200 innings and somehow only produced 0.8 fWAR. At the time of the deal, he had an ERA over 4 in the best pitcher's park of the last two decades.

I HATED that trade the moment it was made, and I had no idea who Tatis was. It was the type of trade that, for a team trying to contend, wasn't even worth the roster spot they gave him LET ALONE any kind of lottery ticket going the other way.

Not to mention Erik Johnson was the "well-known" part of that deal on the day it was made, surrendering TWO players to save money on Shields' deal instead of keeping their own talent in-house...when Fowler was desperate (this was put into the press quite openly, not an industry secret) to get Shields off the team as quickly as possible during that time span.

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50 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Probably means they think Madrigal will be the better player.  

Absolutely.  And who knows?  Maybe they're right.  Madrigal is a unicorn.  He can really get the bat on the ball and he really has no power.  I'm not sure he has any good comps in my lifetime.

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1 hour ago, Orlando said:

Does anyone think they are sending all these Vaughn signals to make people think they will start him on Opening Day and then go with a guy like Sheets who they have been pumping for some reason? I don’t see them not doing the service time stuff.

No way.  They'll pick up someone like a Smoak/Pearce/Moreland just to hold the position down...not those names, of course, but a veteran cut lose in the last couple of roster cutdowns before Opening Day, most likely a player they're actively already watching in Arizona.

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3 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

Absolutely.  And who knows?  Maybe they're right.  Madrigal is a unicorn.  He can really get the bat on the ball and he really has no power.  I'm not sure he has any good comps in my lifetime.

Craig Biggio

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47 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

That's got some interesting stuff, hadn't read that before.  It's heavy on the post-trade period, and I take it all with a grain of salt given that it's from the mouths of Padres scouts who have a vested interest in making themselves sound good.  But still, sounds like despite not pursuing him hard in 2015, the Padres did target him specifically in '16.  

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52 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Craig Biggio

Yeah, I see the idea, but Biggio averaged 17 HR a year for his career.  That's 45/50 power.  Madrigal may get there, but, right now, it's 30 power at best.

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1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

No way.  They'll pick up someone like a Smoak/Pearce/Moreland just to hold the position down...not those names, of course, but a veteran cut lose in the last couple of roster cutdowns before Opening Day, most likely a player they're actively already watching in Arizona.

I think it's much more likely we see a platoon between some combination of Collins, Sheets & Yermin than they bring in a veteran. If that's what the Sox were planning on doing I think it would have happened already. Even Eloy spending more time than expected at DH with Engel or Leury playing regularly in LF seems more likely to me than a veteran DH addition, at this point.

There's also a real possibility that the Sox feel confident of signing Vaughn to an extension which is why all of the smoke he'll start on the OD roster is out there.

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49 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:

I think it's much more likely we see a platoon between some combination of Collins, Sheets & Yermin than they bring in a veteran. If that's what the Sox were planning on doing I think it would have happened already. Even Eloy spending more time than expected at DH with Engel or Leury playing regularly in LF seems more likely to me than a veteran DH addition, at this point.

There's also a real possibility that the Sox feel confident of signing Vaughn to an extension which is why all of the smoke he'll start on the OD roster is out there.

We shall see.

But can you imagine "old school" Tony LaRussa being force-fed an inexperienced rookie at DH in a year he's expected to compete for the AL pennant?

I can't.

Now maybe if it's just the Cardinals' history, where they seemingly come up with a rookie impact (many not highly touted) player nearly every season, but that hasn't historically been the case with the White Sox farm system.  You have to go from two decades ago in Rowand/Crede to Gordon Beckham/Viciedo and then all the way to TA and then the last 3-4 seasons of acquisitions and high draft picks to get any significantly impactful players in a given year.

Heck, somehow Carlos Martinez's son became a near All-Star level hitter with them for a season or two after starting out with the White Sox.

 

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I don't think they will wait until super 2, what they said seems to indicate they bring him up quickly, possibly even opening day.

I would prefer going with Collins for two weeks to get the extra year and then call up vaughn, at least if he does well in spring.

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10 hours ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

I think the bottom line is we'd have to know more about the Padres' scouting of Tatis, and their decisionmaking process in that trade, to be able to evaluate how much was scouting and how much was luck.  It's possible they had him pegged as a star and couldn't believe their luck when we were stupid enough to trade him.  It's possible they basically picked his name out of a hat, thought no more of him than we did, and were as shocked as we were when they saw what they had.  It's possible they were at any number of points on the spectrum between those extremes.  I don't know enough to know, but I think it's fair to say there was a substantial element of "surprise" in Tatis's outperformance of his perceived value as of 2016.

I do believe preller liked tatis, but if he truly saw him as a star why didn't he offer him two millions and allowed the sox to get him for 700k which was the 30th highest signing bonus in 2015?

Tatis was seen as a prospect but most had him around 25-30th best of his international class.

The rise of tatis was just very unusual, because of the way his body developed. It is normal that a young kid gets stronger and improves his approach  but he also got faster and more athletic which is an kinda unusual thing.

Nobody in the industry saw that coming, maybe preller liked him but no way he thought he would become a mega star or otherwise tatis would have gotten 2+ mil.

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5 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

We shall see.

But can you imagine "old school" Tony LaRussa being force-fed an inexperienced rookie at DH in a year he's expected to compete for the AL pennant?

I can't.

Now maybe if it's just the Cardinals' history, where they seemingly come up with a rookie impact (many not highly touted) player nearly every season, but that hasn't historically been the case with the White Sox farm system.  You have to go from two decades ago in Rowand/Crede to Gordon Beckham/Viciedo and then all the way to TA and then the last 3-4 seasons of acquisitions and high draft picks to get any significantly impactful players in a given year.

Heck, somehow Carlos Martinez's son became a near All-Star level hitter with them for a season or two after starting out with the White Sox.

 

Good post.

Grandal / Abreu will get plenty of DH time (Grandal also 1B) as well. If LuCroy is healthy and good enough to make the team, I believe Tony will play him twice a week.

Assuming no IR stints, I’m projecting 2021 games caught as follows:

  • Grandal 97
  • LuCroy 58
  • Collins/Mercedes/Zavala 7

If there is a significant injury to Grandal, I expect Tony will order Hahn to pick up a grizzled veteran he likes within 48-72 hours of diagnosis from one of the dozen plus “tanking” teams around the league to split time with LuCroy.

Edited by South Side Hit Men

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2 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Good post.

Grandal / Abreu will get plenty of DH time (Grandal also 1B) as well. If LuCroy is healthy and good enough to make the team, I believe Tony will play him twice a week.

Assuming no IR stints, I’m projecting 2021 games caught as follows:

  • Grandal 97
  • LuCroy 58
  • Collins/Mercedes/Zavala 7

If there is a significant injury to Grandal, I expect Tony will order Hahn to pick up a grizzled veteran he likes within 48-72 hours of diagnosis from one of the dozen plus “tanking” teams around the league to split time with LuCroy.

Grandal will catch up way more than this. North of 120 games. 

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1 hour ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Grandal will catch up way more than this. North of 120 games. 

I’m sure that’s the plan, but the number of predictions people have made this offseason that require “and absolutely nothing will go wrong with the plan” is rather impressive.

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Jesus no one even responded to my post showing his lack of PA above high A?  His shitty projections give the Sox all the cover they need along with his inexperience to keep him down all year if they want.  People acting like Vaughn is ready are using what exactly?  He will be lucky to be in Charlotte by July.  I'd imagine he spends most the year in AA soaking up PA, as he should.

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4 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Jesus no one even responded to my post showing his lack of PA above high A?  His shitty projections give the Sox all the cover they need along with his inexperience to keep him down all year if they want.  People acting like Vaughn is ready are using what exactly?  He will be lucky to be in Charlotte by July.  I'd imagine he spends most the year in AA soaking up PA, as he should.

This idea of Sheets as a possible DH or corner outfielder getting more than a handful of at-bats seems even more implausible...except for the fact he’s probably going to have a better big league career somewhere than Zack Collins or Yermin.

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6 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Jesus no one even responded to my post showing his lack of PA above high A?  His shitty projections give the Sox all the cover they need along with his inexperience to keep him down all year if they want.  People acting like Vaughn is ready are using what exactly?  He will be lucky to be in Charlotte by July.  I'd imagine he spends most the year in AA soaking up PA, as he should.

This idea of Sheets as a possible DH or corner outfielder getting more than a handful of at-bats seems even more implausible...except for the fact he’s probably going to have a better big league career somewhere than Zack Collins or Yermin.

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16 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Zach Collins is the backup DH, 1B and C.  People should get used to that.  

Collins is not the backup dH and 1B... Why would he be above the 1B depth chart, above Vaughn? He's a backup catcher for now until he is traded for a veteran reliever in July.

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Just now, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Collins is not the backup dH and 1B... Why would he be above the 1B depth chart, above Vaughn? He's a backup catcher for now until he is traded for a veteran reliever in July.

Sheets should also be ahead of Collins at 1B...

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Just now, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Collins is not the backup dH and 1B... Why would he be above the 1B depth chart, above Vaughn? He's a backup catcher for now until he is traded for a veteran reliever in July.

Because Andrew Vaughn has never played above high A and didn't exactly light the league on fire?  This is just bizarre.  I like the kid, he's not Kris Bryant circa 2014.

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Just now, chitownsportsfan said:

Because Andrew Vaughn has never played above high A and didn't exactly light the league on fire?  This is just bizarre.  I like the kid, he's not Kris Bryant circa 2014.

snore.

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1 minute ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

snore.

I guess as usual you have no real argument to make so you do your usual guffaw defense mechanism.  Andrew Vaughn is going to be in Birmingham until at least late June.  There isn't a shred of evidence he's ready to contribute to a contending MLB team.

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3 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I guess as usual you have no real argument to make so you do your usual guffaw defense mechanism.  Andrew Vaughn is going to be in Birmingham until at least late June.  There isn't a shred of evidence he's ready to contribute to a contending MLB team.

The problem with saying there’s a lack of evidence also is that there’s a lack of evidence that he isn’t ready, as we have really no idea how he looked in Schaumburg last year other than internal team statements that they liked what he was doing. 

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4 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I guess as usual you have no real argument to make so you do your usual guffaw defense mechanism.  Andrew Vaughn is going to be in Birmingham until at least late June.  There isn't a shred of evidence he's ready to contribute to a contending MLB team.

Wanna ban bet?  
He literally played in instrucs all last year.  Which would have been a higher equivalent than AA anyways.  And by all accounts, excelled there.  

 

Let's do a ban bet.  I'll go the under on June 15th for when he is called up.

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