How good will Luis Robert be, and how quickly will he reach his peak?

[VAfan]

I expect most Sox fans believe that Luis Robert has the highest upside of any current non-pitcher on the team. I have three questions about that.

1. How high is his upside? You can put this in fWAR or bWAR terms. Something that measures all his skills, not just his hitting. But you can also express his upside in hitting terms if you want. 

2. How quickly will he reach his peak production? To give you a crazy comparison, Mike Trout, who seems to be the measurement of all MLB players today, went from 0.5 bWAR in 2011 in 40 games to 10.5 bWAR in 139 games in 2012. He's never exceeded that bWAR number in any subsequent year even though he's had higher hitting totals. It looks like Trout's fWAR peak was 2012, which was 10.2 v. 10.1 fWAR in 2011. 

3. As Roberts ramps up his game, where do you hit him in the lineup? My theory is he should hit 7th to start the year, as the last big HR threat in the lineup behind Grandal and Vaughn, who should both be strong on-base batters, and ahead of Eaton and Madrigal where if he gets on, he can steal and score on any single by those hitters.  But if he starts ramping up his game, you can't keep him that low in the order. He would need and deserve more ABs. 

I think the two choices are likely to be 2nd or 3rd in the lineup, either behind or ahead of Moncada to put a lefty bat somewhere near the top. If you hit him second, with Anderson's speed, he should see more fastballs. And if he and Anderson both get on, they can fly around the bases on any ball put into play.  Plus you might be more apt to have him steal if he's the only baserunner ahead of Moncada. 

I don't have answers to these questions, and unlike some of my other rosy posts, I'm not going to make any predictions. I'm just putting this one out for discussion.

 

[hi8is]

2023.

That’s all the thought I can muster into a response.

[caulfield12]

At least 8 fWAR, but he's going going to need to markedly increase his walks to get there.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/mike-cameron/1070/stats?position=OF

A better "floor" is probably Mike Cameron, although there's certainly a possibility he could still end up lower than that (which wouldn't be shameful, certainly).

From age 26 through 31 (1999-2004), he put up TWO 5.3 seasons, TWO 5.5 seasons and his bottom was 3.6 and 3.8 in those six peak years.

 

#3 is your best hitter, which is Abreu (for now), and will probably end up as Vaughn or perhaps Eloy Jimenez in the not-so-distant future.  The other plausible argument is for non-Covid 2019 version of Moncada there (as your 3/4 "best" hitter).

I actually prefer Moncada second, with Anderson 3rd and Robert 1st (longer term, 2022 and beyond), simply because I think Moncada will be quicker as the much more experienced player to develop the skill-set and patience for the #2 spot.

Of course, TLR will be tempted to put either Eaton or Madrigal there, which will drive most SABES aficionados nuts, to quote Greg775.

Going by the Mike Cameron example (and he spent a lot of his early career at the bottom of the line-up then leading off), you're looking at .249 MLB average (I'd bet on Robert being in the 260's or 270's) and .338/.444/.782, 107 wRC+ and 50.6 fWAR.

 

That's the floor, a 750-800 ops hitter with even bigger power than Cameron, a career strikeout percentage around 25% (we'd love to get that in 2021), 11% walk percentage is probably at least 2-3% points too high, but he might start getting his share of walks like Tatis simply because pitchers are afraid to face him when behind in the count or don't want to risk a leadoff home run.   During his peak, Cameron was a 20-30 homer guy, with 25 being around the average.  I'd bet that Robert, with health, is closer to 30-35 homers per season, unless they do something really dramatic to suppress the baseball....and, even then Robert has about as much raw power as anyone in baseball not named Aaron Judge or Eloy Jimenez.

Eric Davis' 1987-1989 run in Cincy...maxing out at a 7.1 fWAR but just two other career years over 4 (4.7 and 4.3) would be a "worst-case scenario" IMO.

Or Devon White in 1991-1993, averaging around a 6 fWAR for the Blue Jays...reminiscent of his defensive prowess and the similar ability to glide to the ball and kick it into another gear that almost nobody possessed.   According to Advanced Stats, Robert's flat out sprint speed "was only" 20th in MLB last year, but he seems even faster if you watch him compared to the rest of the players on the diamond on a daily basis, and it's an "easy" grace that few other players have showcased.   While he has a REALLY strong arm, it's probably his weakest area (along with hitting for average) of the five tools that he has, but TLR keeps calling him a "six tool player" so I'll go along with that...the sixth tool being that "it" factor or extra gear that he can seemingly summon at will (like the massive tape measure breaking homer he hit in Game 3 against the A's).

Edited March 1, 2021 by caulfield12

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

I made a bet with my friend before his rookie year (last year), that he would win a MVP within his first 7 years.  Bet was +500.  I win $500 or lose $100... So hopefully, before then

[ChiSox59]

I think it's going to take some time for him to reach full potential. 

I am hoping for a .260/.335/.465 type season.  I don't think reaching 25-30 HRs will be much of a struggle for him if he can stay healthy.  The defense and baserunning will be spectacular.  That is already probably a 5 WAR player.    

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

38 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I think it's going to take some time for him to reach full potential. 

I am hoping for a .260/.335/.465 type season.  I don't think reaching 25-30 HRs will be much of a struggle for him if he can stay healthy.  The defense and baserunning will be spectacular.  That is already probably a 5 WAR player.    

I'd be stunned if he doesn't hit 25 HRs.  He was on pace for over 30 and he had a poor year and miserable ending.

[TomPickle]

If he never improves his approach at the plate then he's probably already bordering on his peak. I think he will end up being something like Alfonso Soriano if Soriano was a gold glove CF on the high end or pretty much the same as Byron Buxton on the low end. He will probably be about a 5 WAR player when healthy with a season or two where he might be a 7 WAR player.

If he can drag his K to BB rate from nearly 4 to 1 to closer to 2 to 1 he has basically unlimited potential. I would not be surprised by multiple 8+ WAR seasons in his peak. That peak would likely arrive a bit later than the first scenario, maybe closer to the end of the decade than the beginning of it where he still has about 90% of his raw tools, but knows exactly how to attack pitches.

[EloyJenkins]

perennial 30 hr/ 40 steal / gold glover
265-280 career BA, and a 5-6 WAR player every year.

He hits his peak in 2024 and from 24-27 he will be a top 10 player in the league with a 7-9 WAR peak a season and at least one MVP.

He should be a #2 hitter in most lineups, but because Anderson/Moncada, he probably settles in as either a #3 or #5 hitter.  Personally I put him #1 and watch him turn into a Soriano 40hr fastball leadoff crusher. But this team is too talented for him to bat there. 

Edited March 1, 2021 by EloyJenkins

[ShoeLessRob]

I like the Mike Cameron comp above. 

[RagahRagah]

Unless the Sox acquire someone who better fits the bill I think Robert would be a great leadoff hitter if and when he blossoms.

[Chisoxfn]

I truly believe Robert will be the best player in White Sox history.  

[VAfan]

54 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

I truly believe Robert will be the best player in White Sox history.  

Frank Thomas set a pretty high standard as a hitter, but it depends on how much you value defense and baserunning. 

[VAfan]

Can you learn to master pitch recognition?  It's a serious question.

That would seem to be the key to unlocking Luis Robert's crazy potential. If he can learn to lay off the pitches opposing pitchers are hoping he will chase and make them throw strikes or walk him, he's going to crush the baseball. 

In other words is there the potential for the kind of transformation Lucas Giolito went through with Ethan Katz's help? 

Looking for some comparison data, I pulled up this hard-hit data.  https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard

Eloy Jimenez is the highest on here in terms of barrels per plate appearance. He's 4th in baseball. Jose Abreu is 11th.  Robert is 35th. Tim Anderson is 42nd.  If you go back to 2019, Abreu is 12th, Jimenez was 20th, Moncada was 25th, Grandal was 45th, and Anderson was 105th.  

Roberts is very impressive, but maybe I should start a similar post on Eloy Jimenez!  

[Boopa1219]

I've said here for a while that I think that he has the highest ceiling in the entire org. I still believe that.

I'm really curious to see him after 162 games in the bigs or with a full season under his belt. This year, I just want to see him avoid long slumps, stay healthy, and cut down on the strikeouts. 

[caulfield12]

Arguably the highest ceiling in the game, along with Franco, Acuna, Tatis, Jr.  

Soto might be number 1 overall if he had the defensive tools for CF. 

Big Bellinger fan, as well. 

Edited March 1, 2021 by caulfield12

[Vulture]

11 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I made a bet with my friend before his rookie year (last year), that he would win a MVP within his first 7 years.  Bet was +500.  I win $500 or lose $100... So hopefully, before then

That’s a good bet on your end imo. 5 to 1 pay out on 50/50 shot if I were to estimate. You’ve got six chances to win. Yeah, no brainer. Hope you’re good friends though

[Vulture]

Look at his ‘18 minors numbers compared to ‘19. Robert peak will be to ‘20 as ‘19 was to ‘18. In other words all the way to the top.

Edited March 2, 2021 by Vulture

[caulfield12]

37 minutes ago, Vulture said:

Look at his ‘18 minors numbers compared to ‘19. Robert peak will be to ‘20 as ‘19 was to ‘18. In other words all the way to the top.

There has always been an adjustment period, especially with someone who missed so much time in Cuba and after signing year...and also due to injuries.

Look at Tim Anderson or Moncada or Jimenez.

Heck, think how many years it took for Rowand or Crede to break the starting line-up.

 

Robert has more talent than all of those guys (Moncada used to be considered right up there, and still could be)...but the first 2-3 years are always the toughest for anyone not named Mike Trout.

 

Another player with a similar combination of talent/tools was Sammy Sosa, he started off pretty well his rookie year and then struggled to the point a change of scenery (or PED's) became necessary to reinvigorate his career.

[35thstreetswarm]

8 hours ago, Joshua Strong said:

I've said here for a while that I think that he has the highest ceiling in the entire org. I still believe that.

Really going out on a limb there.  😉

He’s really one of only a handful of athletes I’ve ever watched who commands instant double takes, who just seems “built different.” If he can avoid injury and keep his head in the game I am giddy to see what he can turn into.

[Dominikk85]

It depends on how his plate discipline developes. He doesn't have to be Carlos Santana or Joey votto at the plate but over 40% chase rate is not going to cut it. 

If he can maybe lower that to like 32-33% he could be a real superstar. It was his first year so there definitely should be some room for growth. 

Don't get me wrong, Even with a high chase rate he can have 5 war seasons if he has some babip luck but to be a consistent performer he needs to tighten up that a little. 

[Chicago White Sox]

Outside of the insane physical tools, it sounds like Robert is a very data oriented guy and I think that will help him greatly with his plate discipline as he moves forward.  I think his floor is a 5 win player (he was nearly on pace for this last year as a rookie and league average hitter) and his ceiling is best player in baseball.  Ultimately, I see Robert plateauing in the 7 to 8 win range with a couple seasons potentially exceeding that if everything clicks.

Edited March 5, 2021 by Chicago White Sox

[michelangelosmonkey]

On 3/1/2021 at 8:16 PM, caulfield12 said:

There has always been an adjustment period, especially with someone who missed so much time in Cuba and after signing year...and also due to injuries.

Look at Tim Anderson or Moncada or Jimenez.

Heck, think how many years it took for Rowand or Crede to break the starting line-up.

 

Robert has more talent than all of those guys (Moncada used to be considered right up there, and still could be)...but the first 2-3 years are always the toughest for anyone not named Mike Trout.

 

Another player with a similar combination of talent/tools was Sammy Sosa, he started off pretty well his rookie year and then struggled to the point a change of scenery (or PED's) became necessary to reinvigorate his career.

You got me down the rabbit hole with this one...Sosa had tools when the White Sox got him but no where NEAR Robert level expectations...he was never very good in the minors, had 100 good at bats for the White Sox followed by 900 at bats with an OPS of about .650...they played him mostly at RF where he wasn't very good.  I remember being excited about him but mainly because he was so young when they got him...and hitting 15 homers and stealing 30 bases in the majors at 21 suggested he might be much better.   What really got me going was seeing the trade...the White Sox traded the home town favorite, 30 year old, Harold Baines who was having a great year and got two twenty year old...Sosa and Wilson Alvarez and Scott Fletcher (a useful SS).  Who had the balls to make THAT trade?  Larry Himes...which reminded me how great he was.  He drafted Frank Thomas, Jack McDowell, Ventura, Alex Fernandez, Jason Bere and Ray Durham in a three year period.  Wow.  He built the foundation for those very good 1990's teams and then was mysteriously fired.  Ron Schueler got all the credit but seems like there is very little evidence that RS was any good at his job.  Himes went to the Cubs and traded with Schueler to get Sosa.  Talent evaluation is the most important thing for an organization and I think Himes was the White Sox best at this in the last fifty years...although I'm very optimistic on Hahn right now.     

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Outside of the insane physical tools, it sounds like Robert is a very data oriented guy and I think that will help him greatly with his plate discipline as he moves forward.  I think his floor is a 5 win player (he was nearly on pace for this last year as a rookie and league average hitter) and his ceiling is best player in baseball.  Ultimately, I see Robert plateauing in the 7 to 8 win range with a couple seasons potentially exceeding that if everything clicks.

I want to watch Robert hit more than anyone else on the team. I want to see him run more than anyone else on the team. I want to watch him play the field more than anyone else on the team.