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Giolito says there hasn't been talks on an extension

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ya, i dont think anybody is surprised. ONly way sox approach him is to tack on a year or two - but giolito doesn't seem like a guy to give up those 1-2 years of his prime and possibility at a giant contract to lock in wealth. He's already going to be very wealthy after this season ... I bet he just plays out the arb years & moves on. We have 3 years on the clock for this exact nucleus - after that you'll have bits and pieces - but this is the 3 years based on JR track record. 

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5 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

ya, i dont think anybody is surprised. ONly way sox approach him is to tack on a year or two - but giolito doesn't seem like a guy to give up those 1-2 years of his prime and possibility at a giant contract to lock in wealth. He's already going to be very wealthy after this season ... I bet he just plays out the arb years & moves on. We have 3 years on the clock for this exact nucleus - after that you'll have bits and pieces - but this is the 3 years based on JR track record. 

I'm hopeful there will be new ownership (JR would be 88 in 2024) and/or the White Sox' attendance due to successful previous seasons will bump up the payroll after the new CBA.

The current or a new FO will need to shifting the payroll primarily committed to older FAs acquired the past two off-seasons, to retaining the current core young players. Hopefully the club can draft and develop enough key players over the next few years to keep a competitive window open beyond 2023/24. I'm hopeful both Lucas and Tim remain with the club after their current deals expire, but don't expect a contract extension before their current deals expire or a "hometown discount".

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After three years we’ll only have Anderson, Eloy, Robert, Moncada, Vaughn, Madrigal, Cespedes, Cease, Kopech, Crochet, Kelly, Thompson, Vega, Bummer, Heuer and anybody like Giolito who may or may not be signed to an extension to build around. It’s almost like it ended before it even begun! Hopefully they all pan out because there is no way they will acquire another player over the next three years!

 

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4 minutes ago, Vulture said:

After three years we’ll only have Anderson, Eloy, Robert, Moncada, Vaughn, Madrigal, Cespedes, Cease, Kopech, Crochet, Kelly, Thompson, Vega, Bummer, Heuer and anybody like Giolito who may or may not be signed to an extension to build around. It’s almost like it ended before it even begun! Hopefully they all pan out because there is no way they will acquire another player over the next three years!

 

That's fine if you can guarantee at least one ace out of that group of pitchers to replace Giolito...

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5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

That's fine if you can guarantee at least one ace out of that group of pitchers to replace Giolito...

Four #2 plus a future acquisition wouldn’t do the trick?

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39 minutes ago, Vulture said:

Four #2 plus a future acquisition wouldn’t do the trick?

You have Cease and Kopech to draw from, then our minor league depth, with Kelley the most likeliest.   You'd be incredibly fortunate just to get one #2 starter out of Cease and Kopech, honestly.

One has to assume that if Lynn repeats his last couple of seasons, he will go for the biggest possible extension available, and that won't be from the White Sox.

Keuchel will be declining, and it's going to be at best a very IFFY proposition to move Crochet to a starting role, assuming they could get him to stop throwing at 100+ (or that he doesn't get injured coming out of the pen first).

 

Now, we can relying on "lucking" into Keuchel for the 2020 season, but the odds over franchise history of the White Sox adding a #2 starter from outside the organization haven't been all that great (in terms of FA).  

Almost always, it has been success in the trade market (or rare "freebies" like Esteban Loiaza and later Jose Contreras.)

They will need outside the box thinking, like a Scherzer/Greinke/Verlander type of move...or one of the numerous veterans that are heading into FA next year with Bottom 12-15 franchises that are in cost-cutting mode.

 

 

 

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27 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

 

They will need outside the box thinking, like a Scherzer/Greinke/Verlander type of move...or one of the numerous veterans that are heading into FA next year with Bottom 12-15 franchises that are in cost-cutting mode.

 

 

 

Well if they can do that, then they can extend Lynn/Giolito.   It's not like those 3 had below-market contracts.

Seems like JR is reverting to his 80s/90s philosophy of no extensions for young pitchers.

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The Sox can't extend EVERYBODY. That's just how it goes. I'm glad they're managing to extend a good chunk of their position players. They need to do their best at developing pitching, and then signing some proven veteran pitchers as FAs. 

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29 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Well if they can do that, then they can extend Lynn/Giolito.   It's not like those 3 had below-market contracts.

Seems like JR is reverting to his 80s/90s philosophy of no extensions for young pitchers.

If you believe he's willing to give a pitcher with one TJ surgery in his history $140-180 million...at the end of the 2023 season, he'll be 29, which is close to the ideal age for a pitcher hitting free agency.  Obviously, 27 or 28 would be preferable, but that's as close to peak as you're going to get for a free agent pitcher.

At the very best, you're going to buy out 1-2 years of free agency at this point...but that's becoming increasingly unlikely.  Of course, if he has a disappointing season, you're unlikely to see the White Sox take the financial risk and Giolito's still going to bet on himself bouncing back in 2022/23.

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3 minutes ago, ron883 said:

The Sox can't extend EVERYBODY. That's just how it goes. I'm glad they're managing to extend a good chunk of their position players. They need to do their best at developing pitching, and then signing some proven veteran pitchers as FAs. 

Vaughn has to be the last really obvious choice remaining...and that's mitigated somewhat by his positional limitation, although not much.

After that, you've got guys like Cease, Madrigal and Kopech.  Madrigal looks like a consistent bet to be an "above average" player, but he's certainly better managed on a year to year basis like Crede or Jenks because of that ongoing injury factor going back to Oregon State and his style of play.  Most importantly, he's never going to break the bank in arbitration because his game isn't captured well by advanced stats or even HR's/RBI's/BB's.

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42 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Well if they can do that, then they can extend Lynn/Giolito.   It's not like those 3 had below-market contracts.

Seems like JR is reverting to his 80s/90s philosophy of no extensions for young pitchers.

What we don’t need during the team’s “window” in these upcoming years is John Danks redux.  He signed his extension as a young pitcher, but then got injured almost immediately, and they ended up running the poor guy out there way more often than they should have, but only due to how much $$$ they were into on him.  

It’s obviously tougher in the pitching space to give these extensions.  It’s so much more of a crapshoot than with position players.  You get stuck having to run these guys out to the mound in the pre-free agent years far more often than you would otherwise.  We saw that with Danks.  

I don’t know.  I love Lucas and am extremely excited about what his potential is in leading us through this upcoming exciting chapter with the team.  He’s the leader on the staff as TA is the leader with the position players.  I’m not against an extension based on the money.  Happy to have the current owner to pay for premium talent (a rarity).  But I don’t want to see the team possibly crippled by a pitcher coming back from injury who’s not effective any longer but who they run out there because he’s tethered to a huge contract.  

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2 hours ago, Vulture said:

After three years we’ll only have Anderson, Eloy, Robert, Moncada, Vaughn, Madrigal, Cespedes, Cease, Kopech, Crochet, Kelly, Thompson, Vega, Bummer, Heuer and anybody like Giolito who may or may not be signed to an extension to build around. It’s almost like it ended before it even begun! Hopefully they all pan out because there is no way they will acquire another player over the next three years!

 

Haha.  It’ll be just like 2015-2016 all over again:

15 star-level players on good contracts with 10 or so scrubs around.  I’m pissed too.  

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The decision to not throw huge money at a big free agent like Bauer  and to  not go "all-in" by pushing all the chips in  for a short window of opportunity might be short sighted, or it might end up being a wise one.  In that vein, a decision on whether to extend Gio should  probably wait until he gives ownership added confidence that he will maintain his excellence and durability for at least one more season. 

Beyond that if Gio impresses JR  that he has increased value beyond his outstanding performance on the field ( like Abreu and TA have done )  JR might open up the check book.  JR likes White Sox players who spend time and make efforts to reach out to the community, to fans and to charitable causes off the field.  That isn't something JR does only  for personal reasons.   Branding is an important aspect in any business but it is critical for a sports franchise.

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23 minutes ago, tray said:

 

The decision to not throw huge money at a big free agent like Bauer  and to  not go "all-in" by pushing all the chips in  for a short window of opportunity might be short sighted, or it might end up being a wise one.  In that vein, a decision on whether to extend Gio should  probably wait until he gives ownership added confidence that he will maintain his excellence and durability for at least one more season. 

Beyond that if Gio impresses JR  that he has increased value beyond his outstanding performance on the field ( like Abreu and TA have done )  JR might open up the check book.  JR likes White Sox players who spend time and make efforts to reach out to the community, to fans and to charitable causes off the field.  That isn't something JR does only  for personal reasons.   Branding is an important aspect in any business but it is critical for a sports franchise.

One more year and it's too late.

Then he's looking at $200-225 million on the open market...assuming a return to "normalized" revenues.

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Posted (edited)

It may be too late already.

 

Edited by tray

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7 hours ago, tray said:

It may be too late already.

 

I fear this may be the case as well. 

If JR is really being cheap right now to try to lock but Gio later I suppose I could get behind that but do any of us think this is actually the case? And if so, what are the odds it would have happened already?

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Honestly, this is probably the first offseason I'd have felt comfortable giving him an extension. I don't blame him passing with him being so close to FA

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12 hours ago, Vulture said:

After three years we’ll only have Anderson, Eloy, Robert, Moncada, Vaughn, Madrigal, Cespedes, Cease, Kopech, Crochet, Kelly, Thompson, Vega, Bummer, Heuer and anybody like Giolito who may or may not be signed to an extension to build around. It’s almost like it ended before it even begun! Hopefully they all pan out because there is no way they will acquire another player over the next three years!

 

That's the rosy outlook, likely not the realistic one. As someone else noted you'll need an ace or two if you lose Giolito. I'll preface this with the link to the 2017 MLB top prospects list. http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017/?list=prospects -- then take a look and see which have really made the impact 3-4 years later. And these were the top of the top. Prospects don't always develop, nor they develop on a linear path. we cant just expect that if giolito is gone that a kelley or some other guy can just slot in. its quite the opposite.

Ohtani - meh - good, injured, up and down. Torres - solid. Robles - very meh. some nice tools, but hasn't really come close to even an all-star. vladdy jr. -- still waiting. eloy - starting to turn into that star, but hasn't been instant. acuna -- superstar. brendan rodgers - still hasn't contributed. kyle tucker - finally got his chance last year and did well. nick senzel - nada. kopech - nothing. buehler - superstar in making . honeywell - nada. lewis brinson - nada. f. mejia - nada. alex reyes - nada. just saying that if you think you can count on cespedes, cease, kelly, thompson, vega, etc. etc. you may be mistaken. hell you can't really even put kopech on that list STILL. or vaughn. or madrigal. there will be hits and misses.  we'll have a nice core no doubt but just saying it's not as easy as plugging next man up which is why it's so imperative to sign the good ones long term when you luck into one. 

Just go back to 2017 - the board read like this:

Kopech - ETA of late 2018 - bonafide ace. electric stuff. future star. replaces sale. 2020 run he'll be right in the mix near the top of rotation

Reynaldo Lopez - good stuff - might be more of a bullpen piece, but was rated in top 10 of ALL prospects in 2016-17. he has the stuff to be a monster possibly! our staff is going to be overloaded with talent!

Carson Fulmer - ETA 2017 - mixed bag so far in AA/AAA, but nasty stuff, think coop can fix him. nice bullpen piece at worst. 

Blake Rutherford - starting in RF by 2019. #40 prospect overall!!! what a trade to get him. this minor league system is loaded! just 3 spots behind Juan Soto in the rankings! (to be fair the trade hadn't happened yet, but just saying)

Alec Hansen - man did he tear up low A ball. this could be a #2 type starter if he keeps this up. what a nice steal by the sox scouts!

Dane Dunning - just a solid workhorse. consistent. not flashy, good. (turned out true for those 20 innings or whatever it was)

Zack Burdi - ETA 2017 - our future closer. 

Zack Collins - nice bat, questionable glove. ETA 2018. definitely has the bat to contribute right away - maybe more of a DH/C role long term. 

 

my point is ... i don't count on anybody until they've proven it for more than one season in the mlb. that goes for madrigal. that went for giolito going into last year. that'll be the truth for vaughn, cease, etc. Cease could go balls to the wall this year and I wouldn't trust him with the ball in game 5, 6, or 7 in the following year. I want to see consistency before crowning any of these guys. And once you crown them? Open up the bank vault. That's what we should do on giolito but were not a very good orginization.

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this isnt a big deal to me, we have him until 2024. Id love to have him signed longer but a lot can happen between now and then, and we can always extend him sometime in the next 3 years. Theres no rush, and we arent going to extend him cheap anyway. 

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