Twins/White Sox in similar positions...

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, Kyyle23 said:

Nah.  You are caulfielding it, and I'm not engaging.  

Can I get a dictionary entry?   Or is that only possible by referring to myself in third person...?

It’s not a shocker the small market Rays pioneered both the super-utility approach as well as giving more innings to relievers than starters, as well as openers.  Those were perfect niches to exploit as targeted by Friedman.

[Two-Gun Pete]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Houston Astros=Marwin Gonzalez

Cubs=Bryant, Baez, Zobrist, Happ/Bote now

Red Sox=Eduardo Nunez, Holt, Bogaerts, Swihart

Nationals=Howie Kendrick, Asdrubal Cabrera

Royals=Ben Zobrist

To this, I say: "Correlation is NOT Causation."

 

Some of these are nice correlations between winning and utility types. But I asked for a team that won/contended BECAUSE OF their utility guys. In other words, that a bench player paved the way for their teams to make it/win the WS. Or if you like, CAUSED THEIR TEAM to win/contend.

I think we agree that depth and versatility are important. I think you and I, and really, anyone who can see trends in MLB find these things to be more important than the SOX FO think them to be. I think where you and I differ is that you want to believe that a bench player is more important than he really is. Perhaps this is due to recency bias of TA's/Eloy's injuries, and the subsequent elevation of AAAA-types into more prominent roles.

 

No doubt, a MLB team's bench IS important, I'll agree.  But take any of these teams you cite, subtract their #4/#5 SPs, and add in 2 walk machines [Cease/Lopez] and an IL HOF Person [Rodon], and I doubt that their mighty benches could have overcome a glaring deficiency.

 

2 hours ago, Kyyle23 said:

This is the stretchiest of 2021 caulfield stretches 

most of those guys were starters

And that's the other part of that post. Kris Bryant, a utility player? Seriously?!?

Bogaerts hasn't played any other position, besides SS since 2013. 

As the kids say, "FOH!"

Edited April 5, 2021 by Two-Gun Pete

[Kyyle23]

3 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

To this, I say: "Correlation is NOT Causation."

 

Some of these are nice correlations between winning and utility types. But I asked for a team that won/contended BECAUSE OF their utility guys. In other words, that a bench player paved the way for their teams to make it/win the WS. Or if you like, CAUSED THEIR TEAM to win/contend.

I think we agree that depth and versatility are important. I think you and I, and really, anyone who can see trends in MLB find these things to be more important than the SOX FO think them to be. I think where you and I differ is that you want to believe that a bench player is more important than he really is. Perhaps this is due to recency bias of TA's/Eloy's injuries, and the subsequent elevation of AAAA-types into more prominent roles.

 

No doubt, a MLB team's bench IS important, I'll agree.  But take any of these teams you cite, subtract their #4/#5 SPs, and add in 2 walk machines [Cease/Lopez] and an IL HOF Person [Rodon], and I doubt that their mighty benches could have overcome a glaring deficiency.

 

And that's the other part of that post. Kris Bryant, a utility player? Seriously?!?

As the kids say, "FOH!"

The one I kept looking at was Bogaerts lol 

[Two-Gun Pete]

1 minute ago, Kyyle23 said:

The one I kept looking at was Bogaerts lol 

Yeah, you beat me to the edit.

 

And again, even as valuable as a utility guy can be, as a percentage of a team's WAR [be it bWAR or fWAR], it pales in comparison to what a starting position player provides. Or the impact of so many other parts of a team that a SP can have on his team mates, like a SP walking the yard, leading to short starts, leading to overuse of a bullpen. 

[Kyyle23]

5 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Yeah, you beat me to the edit.

 

And again, even as valuable as a utility guy can be, as a percentage of a team's WAR [be it bWAR or fWAR], it pales in comparison to what a starting position player provides. Or the impact of so many other parts of a team that a SP can have on his team mates, like a SP walking the yard, leading to short starts, leading to overuse of a bullpen. 

I think the White Sox depth is shaky but if TA and Eloy were to both miss significant time, it's hard for me to blame depth for that.  Those are two elite bats, you aren't gonna have someone sitting there that's going to give you those numbers while replacing them in the field.   Any team would love to have a Rays Royals early Cubs Zobrist waiting to start in any pinch, but that guy is almost a unicorn in this game right now.

[Two-Gun Pete]

Just now, Kyyle23 said:

I think the White Sox depth is shaky but if TA and Eloy were to both miss significant time, it's hard for me to blame depth for that.  Those are two elite bats, you aren't gonna have someone sitting there that's going to give you those numbers while replacing them in the field.   Any team would love to have a Rays Royals early Cubs Zobrist waiting to start in any pinch, but that guy is almost a unicorn in this game right now.

Oh, I agree. It would be tough for any team to replace 2 of their top 4 returning WAR position players, in an injury crisis.

 

But, what has been vexing is that the starting rotation has been shit thus far, and has like, LESS depth than the position player side of things. We saw this as an issue back in September, and instead of addressing it, they bought high on a closer. This, even though, like NO ONE would have thought that the bullpen needed an $18MM closer.

[Dick Allen]

4 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Oh, I agree. It would be tough for any team to replace 2 of their top 4 returning WAR position players, in an injury crisis.

 

But, what has been vexing is that the starting rotation has been shit thus far, and has like, LESS depth than the position player side of things. We saw this as an issue back in September, and instead of addressing it, they bought high on a closer. This, even though, like NO ONE would have thought that the bullpen needed an $18MM closer.

Looking at the first several games, the bullpen needed a closer and perhaps another arm or two. I'm not panicked. Its way too early for that. Would like a nice performance out of Hot Carl today. 

[Two-Gun Pete]

6 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Looking at the first several games, the bullpen needed a closer and perhaps another arm or two. I'm not panicked. Its way too early for that. Would like a nice performance out of Hot Carl today. 

It would have been helpful to have someone in the starting rotation to be able to go, ya know, 5+ IP, other than Giolito.

 

I don't care how talented your bullpen might be. If they're constantly having to carry 4+ IP each and every night, at some point the bullpen loses effectiveness. It also becomes difficult for your 76 year old manager to game plan, if you can't get 5+ IP from anyone in the starting rotation. 

[SoCalChiSox]

I wasn't aware that Minnesota was 1-3. I thought they were 2-1 but maybe I'm wrong on that.

[fathom]

Cruz with a grand slam already vs Tigers 

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, fathom said:

Cruz with a grand slam already vs Tigers 

Well, any games the Tigers beat the Twin are gravy...unfortunately, Hector was just a bit off in his Cruz to White Sox prediction.

[caulfield12]

I think Nelson Cruz already beat Yonder Alonso, Mazara and Encarnacion cumulative yearly contributions statistically in today’s game.

 

Edited April 5, 2021 by caulfield12

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

It would have been helpful to have someone in the starting rotation to be able to go, ya know, 5+ IP, other than Giolito.

 

I don't care how talented your bullpen might be. If they're constantly having to carry 4+ IP each and every night, at some point the bullpen loses effectiveness. It also becomes difficult for your 76 year old manager to game plan, if you can't get 5+ IP from anyone in the starting rotation. 

The avg start in baseball last year was just under 5 IP per start. Baseball is changing. Covering 4 innings is the norm in the game now. 

[South Side Hit Men]

8 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The avg start in baseball last year was just under 5 IP per start. Baseball is changing. Covering 4 innings is the norm in the game now. 

COVID / aborted season skews last year's numbers. This year's numbers will be skewed as well. Expect a return to normal (#1-#3s SPs 6 IP, #4s-5 SPs 5 IP) in 2022, assuming baseball is played after a successful CBA implementation.

[Two-Gun Pete]

14 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The avg start in baseball last year was just under 5 IP per start. Baseball is changing. Covering 4 innings is the norm in the game now. 

Thats true for the 60 game sprint that was 2020.

However, in the 162 game 2019 season, the average was 5.2IP/start. Since that includes both CG gems and Dylan Cease/Reynaldo Lopez 1.1IP, 5BB turds, a 5ish IP start should be the average.

While I agree that the game is always changing, I also don't know that it'll ever be fully free of needing a guy to take the ball every 5th day, and give his teams 5+ IP.

Tampa tried bullpenning it all season long a few years ago, and it didn't work. They found that to get through 162, they needed guys who could take the ball, & get them 5IP with regularity.

Edited April 5, 2021 by Two-Gun Pete

[ron883]

3 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

COVID / aborted season skews last year's numbers. This year's numbers will be skewed as well. Expect a return to normal (#1-#3s SPs 6 IP, #4s-5 SPs 5 IP) in 2022, assuming baseball is played after a successful CBA implementation.

I know it helps you understand a point when it is accompanied by a song, video, or picture, so see below. 

 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

10 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

COVID / aborted season skews last year's numbers. This year's numbers will be skewed as well. Expect a return to normal (#1-#3s SPs 6 IP, #4s-5 SPs 5 IP) in 2022, assuming baseball is played after a successful CBA implementation.

It was 5.2 innings in 2019 and has been trending down for over a decade. 2020 wasn't that unexpected. 5 is normal now.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

9 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Thats true for the 60 game sprint that was 2020.

However, in the 162 game 2019 season, the average was 5.2IP/start. Since that includes both CG gems and Dylan Cease/Reynaldo Lopez 1.1IP, 5BB turds, a 5ish IP start should be the average.

While I agree that the game is always changing, I also don't know that it'll ever be fully free of needing a guy to take the ball every 5th day, and give his teams 5+ IP.

Tampa tried bullpenning it all season long a few years ago, and it didn't work. They found that to get through 162, they needed guys who could take the ball, & get them 5IP with regularity.

The rays barely let anyone see a lineup for the third time through last year and were one of the best teams in baseball.

[turnin' two]

36 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The avg start in baseball last year was just under 5 IP per start. Baseball is changing. Covering 4 innings is the norm in the game now. 

While this may be true, I think there were some extenuating circumstances last year.  This also is more disappointing for the Sox, as Keuchel and Lynn were supposed to be horses that went deeper into games and saved the pen for the games where they will be predictably needed.  The starting pitching has been, like just about every other aspect of the beginning of this season, a tremendous disappointment.  

[caulfield12]

9 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

While this may be true, I think there were some extenuating circumstances last year.  This also is more disappointing for the Sox, as Keuchel and Lynn were supposed to be horses that went deeper into games and saved the pen for the games where they will be predictably needed.  The starting pitching has been, like just about every other aspect of the beginning of this season, a tremendous disappointment.  

Who would have predicted that someone like Matt Moore would be quite useful?

Well, scouts in Japan/Korea, I guess.

Folty had 7 strikeouts for the Rangers (another reported Sox target), so it's possible he's regaining some of his stuff, but seems his command wasn't all there.

If Dunning shuts down the Blue Jays tomorrow...

Edited April 6, 2021 by caulfield12

[South Side Hit Men]

53 minutes ago, ron883 said:

I know it helps you understand a point when it is accompanied by a song, video, or picture, so see below. 

 

I do it to accentuate a point for the benefit of others. 

I don't believe it is prudent to extrapolate the impact last year and this of a COVID / Owner induced 60 game farcical schedule to avoid paying players. There is no indication of a long term change in the mindset across most teams, that the top rotation pitchers are expected to target 6+ IP, and the bottom to target 5+. 

Giolito, Lynn and Keuchel should target 190-200 IP, Cease and Rodon 150 IP. Give Kopech 90-100 + IP this year, let him go 150-160 next year, and 190-200 for the rest of his career. Time will tell what Crochet's arm will handle.

 

Edited April 6, 2021 by South Side Hit Men

[Two-Gun Pete]

5 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The rays barely let anyone see a lineup for the third time through last year and were one of the best teams in baseball.

Yes. In a 60 game season in 2020.

 

Because of the yawning volume of innings to be pitched in a 162 game marathon, even Tampa has recognized the need for some length in starts. Ill agree that no one is going back to the days of Lasorda running up 150+ pitch counts any more.

 

But only getting 4IP out of your SPs will lead to ineffectiveness, injury in your bullpen, and mounting losses. Even in today's MLB.

Edited April 6, 2021 by Two-Gun Pete

[Chisoxfn]

5 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Yes. In a 60 game season in 2020.

 

Because of the yawning volume of innings to be pitched in a 162 game marathon, even Tampa has recognized the need for some length in starts. Ill agree that no one is going back to the days of Lasorda running up 150+ pitch counts any more.

 

But only getting 4IP out of your SPs will lead to ineffectiveness, injury in your bullpen, and mounting losses. Even in today's MLB.

Well said - spot on.