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The Yermin-Vaughn-Abreu Conundrum


ron883
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Sooo, it appears that Yermin is legitimate. "But Ron, it's too early to declare Yermin legitimate." Wrong. I've been on the Yermin bandwagon as long as anybody. I was one of the first to identify his talents. He is here to stay. He has a great approach, he shortens his swing with 2 strikes but still crushes the ball, and he has a fast bat. The dude is going to stay. 

When Eloy comes back, there will be a bit if a logjam. Assuming Eloy is back next year, what do the Sox do? Abreu will be under contract for another year, and likely will get resigned. Do the Sox use Vaughn as a trade chip? They could attempt to trot out Eloy-Robert-Vaughn in the OF. The lineup would be absolutely ridiculous, but the defense would suffer. Imagine this lineup though...

Timmy

Moncada

Abreu

Eloy

Vaughn

Yermin

Grandal/Collins

Robert

Madrigal

Obviously you can change it around. Very right handed heavy, but lefties would get absolutely demolished. Maybe the Sox flip Vaughn I'm a trade for a lefty OF or pitcher? Who knows. Ideas?

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16 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Sooo, it appears that Yermin is legitimate. "But Ron, it's too early to declare Yermin legitimate." Wrong. I've been on the Yermin bandwagon as long as anybody. I was one of the first to identify his talents. He is here to stay. He has a great approach, he shortens his swing with 2 strikes but still crushes the ball, and he has a fast bat. The dude is going to stay. 

When Eloy comes back, there will be a bit if a logjam. Assuming Eloy is back next year, what do the Sox do? Abreu will be under contract for another year, and likely will get resigned. Do the Sox use Vaughn as a trade chip? They could attempt to trot out Eloy-Robert-Vaughn in the OF. The lineup would be absolutely ridiculous, but the defense would suffer. Imagine this lineup though...

Timmy

Moncada

Abreu

Eloy

Vaughn

Yermin

Grandal/Collins

Robert

Madrigal

Obviously you can change it around. Very right handed heavy, but lefties would get absolutely demolished. Maybe the Sox flip Vaughn I'm a trade for a lefty OF or pitcher? Who knows. Ideas?

Wait at least 3-4 months before declaring Yermin a fixture in future lineups.  I have him on my fantasy team, so quite well aware of what he's done so far and his minor league OPS. 

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4 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Wait at least 3-4 months before declaring Yermin a fixture in future lineups.  I have him on my fantasy team, so quite well aware of what he's done so far and his minor league OPS. 

Cmon, look at Yermin play. He's smart at the plate, has a quick swing, great eye, and shortens his swing to make contact with 2 strikes. The dude is here to stay. 

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1 minute ago, ron883 said:

Cmon, look at Yermin play. He's smart at the plate, has a quick swing, great eye, and shortens his swing to make contact with 2 strikes. The dude is here to stay. 

We would have said the same thing in mid August of Gordon Beckham's rookie campaign. The next White Sox captain to take over from Paulie, Jeter-esque qualities. 

Yermin has to hit, because he's unlikely to play in the field or catch (rifle arm but lacking in other areas and Grandal/Collins ahead of him.)

So far, first big test passed... sustaining that momentum.  But llet's wait and see how he does against CLE.

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3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

We would have said the same thing in mid August of Gordon Beckham's rookie campaign. The next White Sox captain to take over from Paulie, Jeter-esque qualities. 

Yermin has to hit, because he's unlikely to play in the field or catch (rifle arm but lacking in other areas and Grandal/Collins ahead of him.)

So far, first big test passed... sustaining that momentum.  But llet's wait and see how he does against CLE.

Gordon's swing was much longer than Yermin's. I'm confident Yermin will keep this up. 

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If Yermin is for real then you keep Vaughn in LF until he adjusts to being average to slightly below and you move Jimenez. Abreu is going to be given the Konerko treatment and will have his number retired and a stature in the outfield.

I could see a situation like the following Jimenez to Arizona for Ketel Marte +  RHP Slade Cecconi. Two often injured stars with similar contracts .  That opens RH to move Marte to RF or 2B and move beyond Madrigal if he doesn't pick it up and the front office sours a move like this allows Vaughn to develop in LF until Cespedes/Colas force the issue or Abreu hangs it up and Vaughn moves to 1B. This is all predicated on Yermin being the next Justin Turner with the bat.

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22 minutes ago, beautox said:

If Yermin is for real then you keep Vaughn in LF until he adjusts to being average to slightly below and you move Jimenez. Abreu is going to be given the Konerko treatment and will have his number retired and a stature in the outfield.

I could see a situation like the following Jimenez to Arizona for Ketel Marte +  RHP Slade Cecconi. Two often injured stars with similar contracts .  That opens RH to move Marte to RF or 2B and move beyond Madrigal if he doesn't pick it up and the front office sours a move like this allows Vaughn to develop in LF until Cespedes/Colas force the issue or Abreu hangs it up and Vaughn moves to 1B. This is all predicated on Yermin being the next Justin Turner with the bat.

Marte just went on the DL.

One of the hottest hitters in baseball the first week.

Out until late April with hamstring injury.

 

Owed $36 million for the next four seasons (two option years), so he'd overlap with TA.

The problem is that you're going to have to send money with Jimenez because you're basically going to have to subsidize the DBacks, since you're forcing him back into that large AZ outfield and he's extremely likely to be injured again.

They already had a terrible experience with Yasmany Tomas.

Most importantly, there's only a ONE year advantage to the Dbacks in terms of player control.

Jimenez is guaranteed $29 million for the next three seasons, so it's actually ONLY a $7 million difference in guaranteed money through 2024.

Another $35 million to JImenez for his last two years, or $6 million (3/3) in buyouts in 2025/26.

 

No way in HELL a National League team can trade their best player in his age 27-30 seasons for a MASSIVE question mark in Jimenez.   I'm not even 100% sure I would trade him for Jimenez and Madrigal (as Dbacks' GM)...it might take a White Sox minor league starter like Kelley.

It's actually quite similar to the return the Brewers would expect for Corbin Burnes...although I'd give the slight advantage to Burnes because of the importance of TOR starters in the playoffs.   The affordable nature of the Marte deal makes it extremely attractive for any middle/small-market contending team in baseball with a strong/deep farm system.

 

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1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

Marte just went on the DL.

One of the hottest hitters in baseball the first week.

Out until late April with hamstring injury.

 

Owed $36 million for the next four seasons (two option years), so he'd overlap with TA.

The problem is that you're going to have to send money with Jimenez because you're basically going to have to subsidize the DBacks, since you're forcing him back into that large AZ outfield and he's extremely likely to be injured again.

They already had a terrible experience with Yasmany Tomas.

Most importantly, there's only a ONE year advantage to the Dbacks in terms of player control.

Jimenez is guaranteed $29 million for the next three seasons, so it's actually ONLY a $7 million difference in guaranteed money through 2024.

Another $35 million to JImenez for his last two years, or $6 million (3/3) in buyouts in 2025/26.

 

No way in HELL a National League team can trade their best player in his age 27-30 seasons for a MASSIVE question mark in Jimenez.   I'm not even 100% sure I would trade him for Jimenez and Madrigal (as Dbacks' GM)...it might take a White Sox minor league starter like Kelley.

It's actually quite similar to the return the Brewers would expect for Corbin Burnes...although I'd give the slight advantage to Burnes because of the importance of TOR starters in the playoffs.   The affordable nature of the Marte deal makes it extremely attractive for any middle/small-market contending team in baseball with a strong/deep farm system.

 

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In terms of value it works out. D-backs aren't going anywhere any time soon in that division.

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6 minutes ago, beautox said:

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In terms of value it works out. D-backs aren't going anywhere any time soon in that division.

On paper.  But that's like saying that any team in baseball would take the Tatis, Jr., contract over "on paper."  Since that's an issue of a shoulder surgery and 4-6 months out (off-season or shutting down entirely for 2022), and it SHOULD be fixed instead of a recurring problem.  But his style of play almost forces you to stick him in CF instead of the middle infield, which would absolutely drive someone like him or Tim Anderson crazy.  A large market team would definitely take the risk, but most couldn't or wouldn't.

In reality, there are MAJOR concerns now with both players, the main point.  They're not just the sum total of their stats entering this season.

If you're a rebuilding National League team, you'd almost have to put him at 1B, but somehow I think all of us can just imagine him reaching across the baseline into the path of a runner and doing the 'ol gator arm and having an elbow blown out or some other bizarre injury.   Or making a throw to 2B on a double play relay, very hard to picture a strong, accurate throw across the diamond...or home on a relay play for that matter.   Or just imagine every team bunting the ball right at him down the line.

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1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

On paper.  But that's like saying that any team in baseball would take over the Tatis, Jr., contract over "on paper."  Since that's an issue of a shoulder surgery and 4-6 months out (off-season or shutting down entire for 2022), and it SHOULD be fixed instead of a recurring problem.  But his style of play almost forces you to stick him in CF instead of the middle infield, which would absolutely drive someone like him or Tim Anderson crazy.

In reality, there are MAJOR concerns now with both players.  

If you're a rebuilding National League team, you'd almost have to put him at 1B, but somehow I think all of us can just imagine him reaching across the baseline into the path of a runner and doing the 'ol gator arm and having an elbow blown out or some other bizarre injury.   Or making a throw to 2B on a double play relay, very hard to picture a strong, accurate throw across the diamond...or home on a relay play for that matter.   Or just imagine every team bunting the ball right at him down the line.

I think its entirely possible for another FO to sell themselves on the idea of Eloy in LF for the short term, for the same reason our front office has. Eloy is younger, under contract with options longer, 1B as a back up plan is wide open in that system and the DH is coming to the NL. Pavin Smith has transitioned to the OF and its been pretty quiet with regards to Beer's future at 1B/DH. Christian Walker and Smith are not the answer long term for the d-backs at 1B/DH and they know that. Their farm system is lacking in impact bats that can play first base and their top 3 prospects are all talented outfielders. One doesn't have to squint hard to see a trade like this making sense for both franchises. Regardless enjoying the conversation @caulfield12

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2 minutes ago, beautox said:

I think its entirely possible for another FO to sell themselves on the idea of Eloy in LF for the short term, for the same reason our front office has. Eloy is younger, under contract with options longer, 1B as a back up plan is wide open in that system and the DH is coming to the NL. Pavin Smith has transitioned to the OF and its been pretty quiet with regards to Beer's future at 1B/DH. Christian Walker and Smith are not the answer long term for the d-backs at 1B/DH and they know that. Their farm system is lacking in impact bats that can play first base and their top 3 prospects are all talented outfielders. One doesn't have to squint hard to see a trade like this making sense for both franchises. Regardless enjoying the conversation @caulfield12

Yeah, same here.

Those last two option years are getting expensive if Jimenez is just going to be a 2-2.5 fWAR contributor due to his poor defense.

You have to be thinking that you are going to have to take the same approach as Colorado, get their first...and hope the Giants keep trying to retool on the fly or whatever it is they're doing.

With the Dodgers and Padres (especially 2022), it must be pretty bleak sitting in those three front offices, and with the Bumgarner contract now on the books as well.

No clue what you do.  Gallen's probably your second most valuable trade piece, but you pretty much have to start building around him, SOMEWHERE, right?   Locastro has a lot of potential as a speed/occasional power guy.   Probably have to trade Peralta.   Escobar's getting too old to have much value.   Can't believe Merrill Kelly's 32.5 and older than Madison, who seems as if he has been around forever.  Of course, you're also looking for a bounceback from Luke Weaver eventually.

Their situation is a lot like the Giants, actually.  Other than Gallen and Locastro, not sure who I even like much.

What can Gallen get you?  Without a REALLY established record of success, 72 innings coming into this season...he's not going to have nearly the same value to other teams as a Giolito or Burnes, although you have the cheaper contract/longer control.

 

 

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1 hour ago, ron883 said:

Cmon, look at Yermin play. He's smart at the plate, has a quick swing, great eye, and shortens his swing to make contact with 2 strikes. The dude is here to stay. 

dude, everyone who's hot and hitting everything looks like they have the best eye and the fastest bat, until the league adjusts

way too premature to start calling him legit

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1 hour ago, ron883 said:

Sooo, it appears that Yermin is legitimate. "But Ron, it's too early to declare Yermin legitimate." Wrong. I've been on the Yermin bandwagon as long as anybody. I was one of the first to identify his talents. He is here to stay. He has a great approach, he shortens his swing with 2 strikes but still crushes the ball, and he has a fast bat. The dude is going to stay. 

When Eloy comes back, there will be a bit if a logjam. Assuming Eloy is back next year, what do the Sox do? Abreu will be under contract for another year, and likely will get resigned. Do the Sox use Vaughn as a trade chip? They could attempt to trot out Eloy-Robert-Vaughn in the OF. The lineup would be absolutely ridiculous, but the defense would suffer. Imagine this lineup though...

Timmy

Moncada

Abreu

Eloy

Vaughn

Yermin

Grandal/Collins

Robert

Madrigal

Obviously you can change it around. Very right handed heavy, but lefties would get absolutely demolished. Maybe the Sox flip Vaughn I'm a trade for a lefty OF or pitcher? Who knows. Ideas?

That didn’t take long only 8 games in and here comes the trade Vaughn talk. And I thought it was over after spring training. Silly me

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Just now, SoxSteve said:

That didn’t take long only 8 games in and here comes the trade Vaughn talk. And I thought it was over after spring training. Silly me

sox should've traded him if they had good offers.  undersized 1B/DH where we have a guy who's retiring as a Sox with a LF and C who need regular time at DH and that was before Yermin Bonds was called up

if they weren't offered anything worthwhile (my ask would be pretty high even now), then I can't blame them for standing pat

 

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20 minutes ago, joesaiditstrue said:

dude, everyone who's hot and hitting everything looks like they have the best eye and the fastest bat, until the league adjusts

way too premature to start calling him legit

You willing to make a monetary bet and/or ban bet that he'll keep it up?

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23 minutes ago, SoxSteve said:

That didn’t take long only 8 games in and here comes the trade Vaughn talk. And I thought it was over after spring training. Silly me

I certainly don't want to trade him. Where does he play on this team when Eloy comes back? 

I forgot that you get offended at the idea of trading Vaughn or Madrigal. 

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Long term I think Vaughn has more upside. Of course yermin could be Edgar Martinez or Nelson Cruz who also broke out at 27 but I think more likely yermin is a 110 wrc+ guy while Vaughn at his peak is like a 120-130 wRC+ guy. 

I think currently yermin is better though so what you do is, you keep Vaughn in that part time role until Engel is back and then you send vaughn down to AAA (and collins is back up catcher and once a week DH) and play yermin full time until Vaughn really destroys (I mean really destroy and not just hit. 275 with 15 bomb pace and good walk rate)  AAA and then you probably trade Mercedes and call up Vaughn. 

Regarding Abreu he is going nowhere until end of 2022 but I don't think you want to keep Vaughn down that long. 

In 2023 then most likely Vaughn is 1b and Eloy DH. 

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1 minute ago, Dominikk85 said:

Long term I think Vaughn has more upside. Of course yermin could be Edgar Martinez or Nelson Cruz who also broke out at 27 but I think more likely yermin is a 110 wrc+ guy while Vaughn at his peak is like a 120-130 wRC+ guy. 

I think currently yermin is better though so what you do is, you keep Vaughn in that part time role until Engel is back and then you send vaughn down to AAA (and collins is back up catcher and once a week DH) and play yermin full time until Vaughn really destroys (I mean really destroy and not just hit. 275 with 15 bomb pace and good walk rate)  AAA and then you probably trade Mercedes and call up Vaughn. 

Regarding Abreu he is going nowhere until end of 2022 but I don't think you want to keep Vaughn down that long. 

In 2023 then most likely Vaughn is 1b and Eloy DH. 

Knowing who the Sox owner is, I see Abreu being around for as long as he wants... Jerry loves him and he loves Jerry. He will get the Paul Konerko treatment. 

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Just now, joesaiditstrue said:

sure I'm down, we should let Soxtalk set the terms, I limit all my sports bets to $100 if you're cool with that

Deal 🤙 No need to get crazy with the money. 

Have any specific stat in mind? I'm fine with using OPS, or we can use something more advanced. 

Help us set the terms fellow Soxtalkians

 

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