White Sox running almost exactly MLB average payroll

[caulfield12]

After 5 years of rebuilding and "unprecedented financial flexibility."

We could probably find quite a few examples from 2006-2012 where we were already at or close to $131,400, and definitely if you went backwards and adjusted for inflation compared to payrolls at that time.

We're 15th in MLB payroll, right on the cut-line ahead of the Twins at #16.  The Twins are ACTUALLY $7 million behind the White Sox at $124.4 million, fwiw.   The MLB average entering 2020 is $128,500,00, roughly.

 

The problem, of course, is that there's about an 80-85% correlation over the last decade in fielding a Top 12 payroll and earning a spot in the playoffs (not counting the anomalous 2020 Covid-abbreviated season.)  Some years, like 2016, it was actually 9 out of 10 teams (qualifying for the playoffs) had top payrolls and there was just one anomaly or outlier.

Now there will always be teams like the Twins, Brewers, A's, Rays and Indians (#30 or last at $49.7 million) that can compete in the Bottom 15 teams, but the examples of success in the playoffs are few and far between.  The only time the A's ever advanced was against the Twins, and perhaps vice-versa (and obviously against the White Sox, who also had less than a league average payroll in 2020).

Most tellingly, the Twins have lost 18 consecutive playoff games, mostly against big market payroll teams.

Now, obviously, one of the Twins/White Sox and Indians will have to advance out of the Central, but those examples are, once again, outliers or anomalies.

And I'm pretty sure nobody has ever compared the White Sox to those five organizations typically successful organizations over the last 5 years (or longer).

 

 

Finally, we've been forced to roster Vaughn, Crochet (well, that one can be argued about the best route to build up innings...and now there's a concern about his 5 MPH velocity loss), Kopech, etc., because we're in a "must win/all-in" and not rebuilding/development season.

If we were the Padres (#8) at $173.1 million, Blue Jays or even the Braves, we'd at least have another $5-10 million to spend on a veteran relief pitcher OR another legitimate bat (obviously better than Williams/Hamilton).

 

source: Spotrac 2021 MLB Payroll Tracker

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

 

Edited April 14, 2021 by caulfield12

[tray]

The Sox are not all in without Eloy.  He would have transformed the heart of the line-up and hit 30+ HR.

You can't recover from that loss by spending money.

 

[caulfield12]

1. LAD

2. NY Yankees

3. NY Mets (we'll see)

4. Houston

5. Philadelphia Phillies (have under performed expectations)

6. LAA (looking good so far in attempt to get Trout his first playoff win)

7. Boston (retooling, looking surprisingly good out of the gate, waiting for a Chris Sale return)

8. SD Padres

9. Washington Nationals (underachieving since World Series title, questionable Strasburg deal, lost Rendon/Harper)

10. St. Louis Cardinals    $164 million

11. Chicago Cubs            $153 million (will likely trade Bryant, Baez and Rizzo or Contreras)

12. SF Giants  (no idea what the hell they're doing)

13. Toronto Blue Jays    $140 million

14. Atlanta Braves         $139.2 million

 

Teams in bold were considered preseason playoff contenders.

You can argue now about the Angels (versus the A's/Astros), Red Sox and perhaps the Cubs being contenders.  The Nationals or Giants would be the biggest surprises out of this grouping.

[caulfield12]

4 hours ago, tray said:

The Sox are not all in without Eloy.  He would have transformed the heart of the line-up and hit 30+ HR.

You can't recover from that loss by spending money.

 

You've just made my point.

The Padres will likely win the wild card missing starting catcher Austin Nola, Tatis, Jr., Grisham (out first week), Adrian Morejon (#4-5 starter will likely miss a big chunk of the season), Clevinger (out for season with TJ surgery) and Cy Young contender Dinelson Lamet (out for most of the first month.)  Starting OF Tommy Pham was nearly stabbed to death in the offseason and still is struggling mightily out of the gate.

They can't overtake the Dodgers with that many injuries.

But they have Profar (LF/2B/CF), Cronenworth (2B/SS/1B/OF), Kim (2B/SS), Caratini and Weathers/Gore/Lamet to cover any pitching injuries.   Even if Pham never gets going, they have Profar, Grisham and Myers to cover the outfield, so there are legit/viable back-ups at every single position.

 

The White Sox are without Jimenez, Engel and TA will be back soon.  I guess you can include Jace Fry or Cordero, if you want to get technical.

 

But the width and breadth of losses between the two teams are not even remotely comparable, and yet nobody is counting out the Padres and saying they aren't "all in" even without Tatis, Jr.  The margin of error is just too thin with the White Sox always needing everything (almost) to go exactly right with injuries/performance.  We've actually been fortunate to "discover" Yermin or we might be 4-7 or 3-8 with how badly our defense, manager and bullpen has performed (not to mention the majority of hitters we're actually counting on in the first 6-7 spots of the line-up.)

“J.C. Bradbury, an economics professor at Kennesaw State University, found that winning more increases revenue exponentially. “Going from 85 wins to 90 is worth more than 80 wins to 85,” he says. As a result, while it might cost more per win for a team that wins 90 games than 85, it makes financial sense because the revenue reward will be higher as well. This leads to a self-perpetuating cycle. Additionally, fans of teams that win frequently expect them to continue winning, and management pays more to do so. For a team like the New York Yankees, paying 10 percent more than anyone else for a second baseman who is only 5 percent better than his closest peer is worth the money (and they can afford it).”

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-be-fooled-by-baseballs-small-budget-success-stories/

Edited April 14, 2021 by caulfield12

[reiks12]

Ill say it, JR needs to pull a Wirtz for this franchise to find the promised land.

[caulfield12]

 

2015  Last 4 teams between #10-19 (Royals, Cubs, Blue Jays, Mets)

2016  9 of 10 playoff teams in Top Ten of payrolls (Cleveland the lone exception)

2017  3 of Final four in Top 8, Astros the anomaly at #18

2018  Three of final four teams in Top 11, Brewers the clear anomaly at #26

2019  Final four teams all in Top 8 of payrolls

2020  Dodgers and Astros #2/4, Braves #13, Rays #28

So basically 7 out of the last 24 NLCS and ALCS teams (29%) were in the bottom 15 teams in payroll.

17 were Top 10/11 payrolls (71%).

 

Right now #10 is the Cardinals at $164 million and #11 is the Cubs at $153 million.  So the White Sox realistically have to increase spending by roughly $20 million to have a more realistic shot of a deep playoff run.

[Kyyle23]

1 hour ago, reiks12 said:

Ill say it, JR needs to pull a Wirtz for this franchise to find the promised land.

JR isnt even in the same galaxy as dollar Bill.  Also, JR has a title so the promise land has been found

[chetkincaid]

6 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

The margin of error is just too thin with the White Sox always needing everything (almost) to go exactly right with injuries/performance.

This is kind of why I wouldn’t be opposed to Rebuild 2.0. I just wish we had a new owner who’ll spend money once the young talent started to thrive. 

[Flash]

My concern isn't the absolute amount of 2021 payroll but rather the $100M tied up in Moncada and Jimenez through 2024 (plus options/buyouts). I'll stipulate that Jimenez will deliver on his promise when he returns as long as he can stay on the field. I am more concerned that Moncada might never fulfill on his vast potential. He was a bright spot in 2019 despite the many strikeouts but 2020 and thus far this year he really looks overmatched at the plate. Obviously I'm stating the obvious here but I'm not optimistic he's gonna figure it out anytime soon. If he doesn't hit and Eloy doesn't return to form and stay on the field, thats a lot of powder locked up in multiyear deals. I suppose I would be less concerned if Madrigal and/or Vaughn were looking like potential All-Stars but thus far, that hasn't been the case.

[Balta1701]

24 minutes ago, Flash said:

My concern isn't the absolute amount of 2021 payroll but rather the $100M tied up in Moncada and Jimenez through 2024 (plus options/buyouts). I'll stipulate that Jimenez will deliver on his promise when he returns as long as he can stay on the field. I am more concerned that Moncada might never fulfill on his vast potential. He was a bright spot in 2019 despite the many strikeouts but 2020 and thus far this year he really looks overmatched at the plate. Obviously I'm stating the obvious here but I'm not optimistic he's gonna figure it out anytime soon. If he doesn't hit and Eloy doesn't return to form and stay on the field, thats a lot of powder locked up in multiyear deals. I suppose I would be less concerned if Madrigal and/or Vaughn were looking like potential All-Stars but thus far, that hasn't been the case.

If those 2 aren’t able to live up to their top 5 prospect billing, their contracts won’t be the reason this team misses the playoffs. Rather, it will be that the team needed them to perform like all stars, and an extra $20 million a year to spend wouldn’t have been nearly enough to replace that.

[caulfield12]

43 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If those 2 aren’t able to live up to their top 5 prospect billing, their contracts won’t be the reason this team misses the playoffs. Rather, it will be that the team needed them to perform like all stars, and an extra $20 million a year to spend wouldn’t have been nearly enough to replace that.

 

Even if we wanted to rebuild, the return would be about the same as in 2016/17, this time for Abreu, Giolito and Anderson.  Kopech, Madrigal, Crochet and Vaughn still have way too many question marks attached.

Obviously you’d never get anything close to Robert’s potential value...compared to the end of August, 2020.  That’s basically Mike Trout/Acuna/Soto/Bellinger.

And Moncada’s the biggest wild card of all.

 

So you’d basically just be trading Abreu, Anderson and Giolito and then Lynn and Bummer for the hope that the prospects replacing them would be better by 2025 and 2026?   Grandal or Keuchel wouldn’t bring much with their long-term deals.  It’s all just too crazy, especially the part about TLR and Hahn/KW working together to execute it in some synergistic way.

And you’d lose a good chunk of the fanbase if you didn’t either sell the team or get rid of LaRussa, Hahn and KW.

Edited April 14, 2021 by caulfield12

[Jack Parkman]

1 hour ago, Kyyle23 said:

JR isnt even in the same galaxy as dollar Bill.  Also, JR has a title so the promise land has been found

He's not, but that poster isn't wrong. The 2005 Sox=1985 Bears. A lone bright spot surrounded by 40 years of crap and underachievment. 

[Flash]

55 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If those 2 aren’t able to live up to their top 5 prospect billing, their contracts won’t be the reason this team misses the playoffs. Rather, it will be that the team needed them to perform like all stars, and an extra $20 million a year to spend wouldn’t have been nearly enough to replace that.

Locking them up seemed like a good idea at the time and might still be the case but if they don't perform, thats a chunk to have to work around, especially with how this team manages payroll.

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, Flash said:

Locking them up seemed like a good idea at the time and might still be the case but if they don't perform, thats a chunk to have to work around, especially with how this team manages payroll.

If we had to guess, we’d say that between the two we were hoping for 9, 10 WAR between them in several years? If they’re 1-2 at most, you wouldn’t be replacing that with an extra $20 million to spend.

[Kyyle23]

9 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

He's not, but that poster isn't wrong. The 2005 Sox=1985 Bears. A lone bright spot surrounded by 40 years of crap and underachievment. 

No, he is wrong.  The promise land has been found.  Wirtz is not the same

[Jack Parkman]

11 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

No, he is wrong.  The promise land has been found.  Wirtz is not the same

The Bears won the SB in 85 but that doesn't mean that their ownership isn't trash. 

Also, Bill Wirtz had some very good Hawks teams in the 80s and early 90s. They happened to run into a generational duo in their prime in Lemieux and Jagr. They had the best record in hockey in 1991 and were runners up in 1992. They ran into Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux. Can't do much about that. 

Edited April 14, 2021 by Jack Parkman

[TheFutureIsNear]

The saddest part is how relatively little extra $ needed to be spent to take the roster over the top. It was very obvious 1 more hitter for depth/ DH rotation was needed along with another SP for depth/insurance to the very iffy combo of Cease and Rodon.

 

I never expected him to spend huge on a SP like Bauer, but JR bumping the payroll up to a whopping 146/147 would have made a ginormous difference. Imagine this roster with LaStella and Robby Ray? That’s so little for a fanbase to ask for...

 

 Also out of curiosity, how much of a talent evaluation issue do people think plays into this? Is JR really the evil owner that refused to spend another penny, or did our front office evaluate the roster and think it was good enough? I feel like a good portion of the blame can be put on JR, but I do think some blame gets lost going in the Hahn/KW direction. 

[JoeyCoralFanClub]

2 hours ago, chetkincaid said:

This is kind of why I wouldn’t be opposed to Rebuild 2.0. I just wish we had a new owner who’ll spend money once the young talent started to thrive. 

What the hell does this even mean?

[reiks12]

2 hours ago, Kyyle23 said:

JR isnt even in the same galaxy as dollar Bill.  Also, JR has a title so the promise land has been found

AH true all is forgiven i hope hes the owner for another 50 years! Building a statue of JR in my backyard today.

[Kyyle23]

Just now, reiks12 said:

AH true all is forgiven i hope hes the owner for another 50 years! Building a statue of JR in my backyard today.

Not the point and you know it.  Reinsdorf sucks but he doesn't approach what Wirtz was doing to that team and fans 

[caulfield12]

16 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

The saddest part is how relatively little extra $ needed to be spent to take the roster over the top. It was very obvious 1 more hitter for depth/ DH rotation was needed along with another SP for depth/insurance to the very iffy combo of Cease and Rodon.

 

I never expected him to spend huge on a SP like Bauer, but JR bumping the payroll up to a whopping 146/147 would have made a ginormous difference. Imagine this roster with LaStella and Robby Ray? That’s so little for a fanbase to ask for...

 

 Also out of curiosity, how much of a talent evaluation issue do people think plays into this? Is JR really the evil owner that refused to spend another penny, or did our front office evaluate the roster and think it was good enough? I feel like a good portion of the blame can be put on JR, but I do think some blame gets lost going in the Hahn/KW direction. 

As it stands, at least $15 million would be taken up on Lance Lynn alone...

https://nolanwritin.com/2021/04/13/dane-dunning-real-deal-texas-rangers/

 

We are all in now, just like the year (2015?) we acquired Samardzija in his pending FA year...

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

8 hours ago, tray said:

The Sox are not all in without Eloy.  He would have transformed the heart of the line-up and hit 30+ HR.

You can't recover from that loss by spending money.

 

You actually literally can.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 hours ago, chetkincaid said:

This is kind of why I wouldn’t be opposed to Rebuild 2.0. I just wish we had a new owner who’ll spend money once the young talent started to thrive. 

Whuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut? 

[RagahRagah]

3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

As it stands, at least $15 million would be taken up on Lance Lynn alone...

https://nolanwritin.com/2021/04/13/dane-dunning-real-deal-texas-rangers/

 

We are all in now, just like the year (2015?) we acquired Samardzija in his pending FA year...

Being all in with astronomically less money than the average stack tends to not work.

[Big Hurtin]

I can't wait until the next rebuild.  TA and Giolito should get some top notch prospects.