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Dominikk85

Playoff odds

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Sox have been bet down based on the odds both in Vegas where I just was and the Illinois sports books.

$100 to win $1,030 were the best WS odds I saw, but most were in the $800-$860 range from a $100 bet.

 

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Accoring to Fangraphs, the Sox now have an 89.5% chance of winning the AL Central. They hold the highest odds of winning the World Series among all AL teams, at 10.9%

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41 minutes ago, KrankinSox said:

Accoring to Fangraphs, the Sox now have an 89.5% chance of winning the AL Central. They hold the highest odds of winning the World Series among all AL teams, at 10.9%

WOW, with all the injuries that 89.5% number is amazing.  

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Sox playoff odds

FG make playoffs 92.3%, Win ALC 89.5%, win WS 11.2%

BR make playoffs 99.4%, win ALC 86.3%, win WS 15.5%

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10 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Sox playoff odds

FG make playoffs 92.3%, Win ALC 89.5%, win WS 11.2%

BR make playoffs 99.4%, win ALC 86.3%, win WS 15.5%

I checked BP, and man, they seem to be sticking hard to their preseason projections. Sox only 49.5% to win the division, and Twins still at 7.5%.

  • Haha 2

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10 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Sox playoff odds

FG make playoffs 92.3%, Win ALC 89.5%, win WS 11.2%

BR make playoffs 99.4%, win ALC 86.3%, win WS 15.5%

I can't believe Baseball Reference has us as sure locks yet has us at a lower percentage to win the division than FG.

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3 minutes ago, chw42 said:

I can't believe Baseball Reference has us as sure locks yet has us at a lower percentage to win the division than FG.

Cleveland is 5.5 games back, and currently also the first team out of the wild card standings, so the team has essentially a 5.5 game lead on TWO playoff spots.  If somehow Cleveland was to pass the Sox, they would also need to have both Boston (2.5 game lead) and Houston (4 game lead) also pass the White Sox pace for them to not be a playoff team.  If both Houston and Boston were to fall off, and Cleveland win the ALC, Toronto is the next team back at 7 games behind the Sox, and it only gets deeper for the trailing teams.

As of now it would take a LOT of things not only going back for Chicago, but also going right for at least 3 other teams for the Sox to not make the playoffs.

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8 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Cleveland is 5.5 games back, and currently also the first team out of the wild card standings, so the team has essentially a 5.5 game lead on TWO playoff spots.  If somehow Cleveland was to pass the Sox, they would also need to have both Boston (2.5 game lead) and Houston (4 game lead) also pass the White Sox pace for them to not be a playoff team.  If both Houston and Boston were to fall off, and Cleveland win the ALC, Toronto is the next team back at 7 games behind the Sox, and it only gets deeper for the trailing teams.

As of now it would take a LOT of things not only going back for Chicago, but also going right for at least 3 other teams for the Sox to not make the playoffs.

Sox are 41-24 with 50 games left vs teams > .500 and 47 games left vs teams < .500. A really bad performance against the > .500 teams would be 20-30 (40%), yet that gets the Sox to 61 wins. Would only need to go 29-18 (62%) against the < .500 teams to get to 90 wins, which pretty much guarantees at least a WC spot, if not the division.

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Post :sweep: update

 

FG

93.1% to make playoffs, 91.1% to win ALC and 9.9 to win WS

BR

98.6% to make playoffs, 98.2% to win ALC, and 8.1% to win WS

538

92% to make playoffs, 90% to win division, 8% to win WS

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Posted (edited)

Indians' Shane Bieber: Not yet ready to throw

by RotoWire Staff | RotoWire

Bieber (shoulder) isn't expected to resume throwing for a week or two, Tom Withers of the Associated Press reports.

Bieber underwent medical exams recently, and the team has been pleased with the results. However, he'll continue to rest in the near future in order to prevent a more serious issue. A better timetable for the right-hander's return could be revealed once he's cleared to begin a throwing program.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/playerpage/2507333/shane-bieber

 

Since his return is undoubtedly the primary hope for the Indians at this point.

Edited by caulfield12

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On 6/14/2021 at 11:28 AM, southsider2k5 said:

Cleveland is 5.5 games back, and currently also the first team out of the wild card standings, so the team has essentially a 5.5 game lead on TWO playoff spots.  If somehow Cleveland was to pass the Sox, they would also need to have both Boston (2.5 game lead) and Houston (4 game lead) also pass the White Sox pace for them to not be a playoff team.  If both Houston and Boston were to fall off, and Cleveland win the ALC, Toronto is the next team back at 7 games behind the Sox, and it only gets deeper for the trailing teams.

As of now it would take a LOT of things not only going back for Chicago, but also going right for at least 3 other teams for the Sox to not make the playoffs.

Thank God...I was beginning to worry.☺️

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im surprised on the astros ....i mean i think they'll make it ... but it's not like there's not competition there.

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5 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

im surprised on the astros ....i mean i think they'll make it ... but it's not like there's not competition there.

BR clearly doesn't like Oakland since they are 2 1/2 ahead of Toronto in the WC race but give the Jays double the odds to make it.

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White Sox magic number of 45 is the lowest in all of baseball. 

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Looking on Fanduel right now and they don't even offer odds on the AL Central anymore LOL

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4 minutes ago, KrankinSox said:

Looking on Fanduel right now and they don't even offer odds on the AL Central anymore LOL

DraftKings is:

Sox -10000

Indians +4000

Tigers +30000

Royals +80000

Twins +80000

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FanGraphs has us at a 99.9% chance of winning the division. I think that's the highest it's been all season. 

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given the implied pay outs i'd take  ...... and this is a business/gambling decision ... not as a fan.

 

blue jays - payout is great for a team with the bats and who have a nice 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation 

white sox

astros

rays

 

in that order at this point.

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1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

 

Feels wrong to have the Yankees below the A's at this point. May have to go look if these are reflected in vegas :)

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Posted (edited)

After tonight's win, FanGraphs officially has us at 100% probability for winning the division. 

Take this with a grain of salt though, because they had the Padres at a 98.4% chance to make the postseason in May and they're now at something like 44%. 

Screenshot_20210818-231732_Brave.jpg

Edited by chw42

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