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Umpire Score Cards This Season


beautox
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Just now, beautox said:

I went through all the umpire scorecards for the season up to date and the sox have been hosed to the tune of nearly -12 runs this season (-11.55).

Just based on watching most the games this is completely expected.  The umps have been fucking horrible and lately it seems quite a few of the misses have been in counts where it would have been a strikeout or walk and completely changed the complexion of an inning against Chicago.

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13 minutes ago, beautox said:

I went through all the umpire scorecards for the season up to date and the sox have been hosed to the tune of nearly -12 runs this season (-11.55).

Good work. I love when someone puts in the time and effort to check if we are truly seeing the Sox being hosed or is it just our rose colored fandom seeing it.

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3 minutes ago, fathom said:

So then my question is if Sox catchers do a bad job at framing?  Great work on this 

Maybe but it doesn't explain a ball 3 inches off the plate getting called a strike against Yermin.  The rub for me on that particular call was that Happ had absolutely no control and that was obvious to everybody watching -- and yet the ump bent over backwards on 3-0 to give him a pitch that far off the plate?  Just doesn't make any sense.  Maybe if that was Greg Maddux the ump is thinking in the back of his mind to give him the benefit of the doubt but Happ was all the fucking place.

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33 minutes ago, beautox said:

I went through all the umpire scorecards for the season up to date and the sox have been hosed to the tune of nearly -12 runs this season (-11.55).

Is there an average out there for each team? It would be interesting to see how this compares to others.

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16 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Is there an average out there for each team? It would be interesting to see how this compares to others.

I would assume that 0 would be average because for every positive, the other team gets the negative of that one.  That being said, it would be interesting to see a ranking of this (not that I expect anyone to put in that kind of effort for all teams).

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2 minutes ago, vandy125 said:

I would assume that 0 would be average because for every positive, the other team gets the negative of that one.  That being said, it would be interesting to see a ranking of this (not that I expect anyone to put in that kind of effort for all teams).

Yes, the average would be zero unless someone is calculating things wrong. What we're looking for here is a standard deviation, and how many deviations add up to that 11.55 figure.

Not taking any statistics classes right now, or I might have done this one as a project.

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2 hours ago, WhiteSoxFan1993 said:

Yes, the average would be zero unless someone is calculating things wrong. What we're looking for here is a standard deviation, and how many deviations add up to that 11.55 figure.

Not taking any statistics classes right now, or I might have done this one as a project.

So the way they calculate it is by game against each opponent? This would make the average 0 then. A rank would be easier than the standard deviation to see if the umpires are truly biased against a team provided that all teams see the same rotation of umpires on an equal basis.

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2 hours ago, ptatc said:

So the way they calculate it is by game against each opponent? This would make the average 0 then. A rank would be easier than the standard deviation to see if the umpires are truly biased against a team provided that all teams see the same rotation of umpires on an equal basis.

Rank is not as relevant if you don't know standard deviation. If the Sox have the worst net umpire bias but are within a couple standard deviations of the entire dataset, then it isn't really significant as somebody has to be the worst. But if they're the worst and also 3+ deviations out, then that's a red flag.

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17 hours ago, kgrittenburg said:

What a bunch of whiners, "were getting hosed"   "MLB and the umps hate da Sox", hell, grow up!!

You must not watch the games or look at the data. There is literal proof home plate umpiring has cost the sox over 11 runs this year to this point.

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On 5/18/2021 at 5:40 PM, WhiteSoxFan1993 said:

Rank is not as relevant if you don't know standard deviation. If the Sox have the worst net umpire bias but are within a couple standard deviations of the entire dataset, then it isn't really significant as somebody has to be the worst. But if they're the worst and also 3+ deviations out, then that's a red flag.

This is really only true if you are looking at true red flags or if you are looking for them being significantly worse. If you are looking all trams within the standard deviation you could say that all trams are fairly even. However as you stated just using a simple rank will tell you what the relationship of their score relative to other teams. So they could not be significantly different from others yet still be on the bottom end of getting hosed. It depends on what you want the numbers to say.

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4 minutes ago, quickman said:

This is a fantastic thread. My question to anyone who has a quick answer based on the data how do the Sox place in reference to the rest of the league . Is -11 runs average or are we way out of whack compared to other teams?

It’s the worst one.

correction: second worst. Dodgers are worse. 

Edited by Blackout Friday
Correction
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