The Bullpen Problem

[YourWhatHurts]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

He’s fine or at least slightly below average in RF...but definitely not a CFer, any more than Avi Garcia is.

Yeah I don't think we can get a good enough CF to make it worth the price.  Even if the Sox started Billy Hamilton every day and he never got another hit, damn can that man throw the leather out in CF.  Hamilton is already here and at least would make it easier to put Vaughn and Eaton on the corners until Engel gets here.  To get any kind of real 2-way difference maker would probably cost a ton, and with Engel as an ideal backup and Robert as an ideal long-term starter, it just doesn't make sense to do that kind of deal where we give up a ton.

I think if there is a deal to be made it is just for a LF or RF who can add to the mix of Eaton & Vaughn.  That would improve the corner OF rotation and keep Leury out of it.  Then Leury & Hamilton can handle CF until Engel or Robert is available.

[caulfield12]

Just now, YourWhatHurts said:

Yeah I don't think we can get a good enough CF to make it worth the price.  Even if the Sox started Billy Hamilton every day and he never got another hit, damn can that man throw the leather out in CF.  Hamilton is already here and at least would make it easier to put Vaughn and Eaton on the corners until Engel gets here.  To get any kind of real 2-way difference maker would probably cost a ton, and with Engel as an ideal backup and Robert as an ideal long-term starter, it just doesn't make sense to do that kind of deal where we give up a ton.

I think if there is a deal to be made it is just for a LF or RF who can add to the mix of Eaton & Vaughn.  That would improve the corner OF rotation and keep Leury out of it.  Then Leury & Hamilton can handle CF until Engel or Robert is available.

Haniger just hit his 13th bomb...prefect fit, but the cost is going to be pretty considerable based on how he’s going now.

[ron883]

28 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Handily...and, as my mom always asserts, don’t count your chickens before/until they’ve hatched.

Does she always say "slash until" after she says before?

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Does she always say "slash until" after she says before?

Only when dipping some Red Man...

[YourWhatHurts]

22 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Haniger just hit his 13th bomb...prefect fit, but the cost is going to be pretty considerable based on how he’s going now.

Burger just homered again.

Let's say Hahn called up right now and offered Haniger for Burger + Stiever + Jose Rodriguez.  

Do the Mariners say no?  And does Hahn actually offer that much?

If you believe in the Burger, and you like Stiever's upside, that's a pretty decent haul IMO.

[wegner]

9 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

Burger just homered again.

Let's say Hahn called up right now and offered Haniger for Burger + Stiever + Jose Rodriguez.  

Do the Mariners say no?  And does Hahn actually offer that much?

If you believe in the Burger, and you like Stiever's upside, that's a pretty decent haul IMO.

I think Seattle says no...they'll hold him until the get more imo.

I think Sox would have to throw in Thompson to get him.

Edited May 23, 2021 by wegner

[YourWhatHurts]

6 minutes ago, wegner said:

I think Seattle says no...they'll hold him until the get more imo.

I think Sox would have to throw in Thompson to get him.

Burger + Stiever + Thompson + Rodriguez?

Yes or No?

That's a decent haul IMO especially considering the injury history, but it's fair and the gamble could be worth it for the Sox, given how much the corner OF situation would improve.

Again it only works if you think pretty highly of at least 1 of Burger/Stiever.

[wegner]

22 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

Burger + Stiever + Thompson + Rodriguez?

Yes or No?

That's a decent haul IMO especially considering the injury history, but it's fair and the gamble could be worth it for the Sox, given how much the corner OF situation would improve.

Again it only works if you think pretty highly of at least 1 of Burger/Stiever.

Not sure we should be desperate enough to make a deal like that yet.

[SCCWS]

48 minutes ago, wegner said:

I think Seattle says no...they'll hold him until the get more imo.

I think Sox would have to throw in Thompson to get him.

I actually think Burger has little trade value until he puts in a year at AAA to show he has bounced back. 

[wegner]

3 minutes ago, SCCWS said:

I actually think Burger has little trade value until he puts in a year at AAA to show he has bounced back. 

Probably true...right now he'd probably be a throw in part of a trade and not the main piece, but we may see a little later this season.

[SCCWS]

4 minutes ago, wegner said:

Probably true...right now he'd probably be a throw in part of a trade and not the main piece, but we may see a little later this season.

FWIW--I saw an article on him that said he is playing 3rd in AAA but most likely the injuries will relegate him to DH/IB down the road. 

[wegner]

4 minutes ago, SCCWS said:

FWIW--I saw an article on him that said he is playing 3rd in AAA but most likely the injuries will relegate him to DH/IB down the road. 

That would diminish his value unless he really rakes.  Vaughn was the future 1B...with his future possibly in RF, Burger or maybe Sheets might have a future on the South Side.

[wegner]

7 minutes ago, SCCWS said:

FWIW--I saw an article on him that said he is playing 3rd in AAA but most likely the injuries will relegate him to DH/IB down the 

Edited May 23, 2021 by wegner
Duplicate

[YourWhatHurts]

16 minutes ago, SCCWS said:

I actually think Burger has little trade value until he puts in a year at AAA to show he has bounced back. 

Burger is one of the most obviously available trade candidates in baseball.  He's probably the most obviously blocked prospect in an organization which is one of the most obvious buyers in baseball.

I will guess that every seller in baseball has been watching Burger in all of his ABs trying to determine (if they don't already believe they know for sure) whether Burger's swing will play against MLB velocity.  And I will also guess that if any of them believe that it will, Hahn is already getting calls, or at least, those organizations are already talking about potential deals for him.

If you believe that the swing/bat will play against MLB velocity, he is probably one of those guys you want to move on quick before he raises his value a lot more.

[YourWhatHurts]

Just now, wegner said:

That would diminish his value unless he really rakes.  Vaughn was the future 1B...with his future possibly in RF, Burger or maybe Sheets might have a future on the South Side.

It certainly seems that the DH will be coming to the NL in the next CBA.  6 year players who are MLB-ready or near-MLB-ready now and who are on the league minimum with a full slate of options left always have tons of value.  Even if they are LF/1B/DH types.  Owners always love that $$$ savings over a FA alternative.

[wegner]

Since LaRussa likes to use his relievers multiple innings, will Lopez be an option this year?

Also, is Burdi looking like a bust at this point or is there still hope there?

[Chicago White Sox]

6 hours ago, wegner said:

Since LaRussa likes to use his relievers multiple innings, will Lopez be an option this year?

Also, is Burdi looking like a bust at this point or is there still hope there?

Too early to write off Burdi, but he’s got to figure out how to command his stuff and fast.  So far in AAA he has 8 Ks & 6 BBs through 5.1 innings.  I still think he has elite stuff, with three potential plus pitches, but it’s all meaningless if he can’t learn to harness it.

[Chicago White Sox]

Alright, I know this is meant to be a bullpen thread, but adding a OF will also be important IMO and given how shitty the system is at the moment I think it’s fair to consider how adding a bat will impact our ability to add a reliever.

My view on the bullpen side of things is to target a rental.  As we saw this offseason, we can play at the top of the RP market.  Therefore, I wouldn’t overpay at the deadline for control.  And looking at teams that will likely be sellers, the group of potentially available RH setup men that will be free agents after the year is slim.  One name that does stand out to me is Raisel Inglesias.  He’s had a rough start to the year, but the velocity & pitch movement is consistent with prior years.  It just appears that he’s given up a ton of hard contact this year (33.3% HR/FB rate) and I’d expect that to normalize over the rest of the season.  What I love about Inglesias is he has plenty of closer experience along with big strikeout out stuff, which gives you another strong option for high leverage situations along with both Hendriks & Bummer.  Plus he’s another Cuban, which gives Caulfield another Disney storyline to run with (although in all seriousness, it might make him a bit easier to re-up).  Right now, Iglesias would be the reliever I’d be targeting if I were Rick Hahn.

[Chicago White Sox]

On the OF side of things, I was all for Gallo until I started looking at his splits.  When I did, I realized he’s not nearly as good against RHP as I originally thought.  Meanwhile, there is another OF that could be available in Starling Marte that could help with our problem against RHP while being versatile enough defensively to play both CF & RF.  Here is how these two guys’ wRC+’s have compared against RHP over the last five years:

               Marte | Gallo

• 2021: 127 | 98
• 2020: 114 | 96
• 2019: 126 | 124
• 2018: 118 | 108
• 2017: 116 | 119

Given that Marte only has one year of control left, I think he will likely come way cheaper than Gallo would which is a huge plus.  And while I’d love to add more power, I do think Gallo’s unique three outcome approach could make an already streaky offense even moreso.  While I don’t think you can go wrong with either guy, I’m all-in on Starling if the price is right.

[Cashman]

10 hours ago, YourWhatHurts said:

Burger + Stiever + Thompson + Rodriguez?

Yes or No?

That's a decent haul IMO especially considering the injury history, but it's fair and the gamble could be worth it for the Sox, given how much the corner OF situation would improve.

Again it only works if you think pretty highly of at least 1 of Burger/Stiever.

I think Stiever is nothing more than a AAAA guy. I see him as Erik Johnson.

[caulfield12]

9 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

On the OF side of things, I was all for Gallo until I started looking at his splits.  When I did, I realized he’s not nearly as good against RHP as I originally thought.  Meanwhile, there is another OF that could be available in Starling Marte that could help with our problem against RHP while being versatile enough defensively to play both CF & RF.  Here is how these two guys’ wRC+’s have compared against RHP over the last five years:

               Marte | Gallo

• 2021: 127 | 98
• 2020: 114 | 96
• 2019: 126 | 124
• 2018: 118 | 108
• 2017: 116 | 119

Given that Marte only has one year of control left, I think he will likely come way cheaper than Gallo would which is a huge plus.  And while I’d love to add more power, I do think Gallo’s unique three outcome approach could make an already streaky offense even moreso.  While I don’t think you can go wrong with either guy, I’m all-in on Starling if the price is right.

Miami is only three games back and advanced last year in the postseason.

Unless we overwhelm them, where’s the incentive to make a deal?

The Rangers should have more reasons to deal Gallo, but just opened a new stadium and look to be dealing DeShields for a minor piece or two first.

Still like Haniger here, because he fills the need/s for the current year without impacting future Sox outfields, meaning the acquisition cost as a half season rental should be less than for Marte.  Plus you have to consider the NL/AL transition as well, which also favors Haniger.  While it’s possible Eaton, Robert, Jimenez, Vaughn and Engel are all part of the picture the last two months, odds of that happening are somewhere between slim and none.

[Chicago White Sox]

So if I’m Rick Hahn, my two primary deadline targets are Iglesias for the bullpen & Marte for the OF.  The question then becomes what would these guys cost?

Starting with Iglesias, relievers are always in high demand at the deadline and usually require a premium.  That being said, the Reds didn’t get a huge return when moving him this offseason and he’ll cost ~$3M in salary to take on, which might be a problem for some clubs in this economic environment.  That being said, they won’t just give him to us.  I think an arm like Lambert or Pilkington (if his velocity is indeed back) plus a more seasoned relief prospect like Tyler Johnson might get it done, although I may see if they’d take a shot on Marshall instead of the latter.  I know some people may hate that (Jimmy & Tyler both have their fans), but Iglesias would solve a massive problem for us. 

As for Marte, I’m going to keep this one simple.  I think cashing in on Jake Burger makes all the sense in the world given he’s basically blocked everywhere here (unless you think he can play 2B) and flashing legit major league ability.  He will need to keep it up for another month, but I could see teams highly interested in him.  While the Marlins do have Brian Anderson at 3B, he’s only under control for two more years and can play RF if need be.  I definitely think they’d be interested in him as the primary piece for Marte.  Throw in a relief prospect like Caleb Freeman and I think you are probably close given Marte will cost ~$4.2M to absorb and is a true rental.

Theoretically, this means you’ve added two high impact pieces for a 2021 postseason run without giving up Stiever (our best AAA depth piece) or any of the key Kanny starters.  I’m not sure I can come up with a better, more realistic outcome for us that doesn’t require gutting the system.

[Chicago White Sox]

24 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Miami is only three games back and advanced last year in the postseason.

Unless we overwhelm them, where’s the incentive to make a deal?

The Rangers should have more reasons to deal Gallo, but just opened a new stadium and look to be dealing DeShields for a minor piece or two first.

Still like Haniger here, because he fills the need/s for the current year without impacting future Sox outfields, meaning the acquisition cost as a half season rental should be less than for Marte.  Plus you have to consider the NL/AL transition as well, which also favors Haniger.  While it’s possible Eaton, Robert, Jimenez, Vaughn and Engel are all part of the picture the last two months, odds of that happening are somewhere between slim and none.

I don’t think Miami will be three games back come July 31st and don’t think there’s any way they win that division and are unlikely to get a Wild Card spot with reduced playoff spots.  IMO, last year was an anomaly.

As for Haniger, I actually loved him as a possible replacement for Eloy, but I’d prioritize a guy who can also play CF.  Marte gives us insurance in the event that Robert’s recovery hits a snag.  Also, Mitch is under control through 2022, so he’s likely going to cost more than Marte.

[Chicago White Sox]

Add Iglesias & Marte and you could be looking at the following roster come October:

1. Anderson, SS
2. Robert, CF
3. Moncada, 3B#
4. Abreu, 1B
5. Jimenez, LF
6. Mercedes, DH
7. Grandal, C#
8. Marte, RF
9. Madrigal, 2B

• IF: Mendick
• OF: Engel
• OF: Vaughn
• UT: Garcia#
• BC: Collins*

1. Giolito
2. Lynn
3. Rodon*
4. Kopech

• 9th: Hendriks
• 8th: Bummer*
• 8th: Iglesias
• 7th: Crochet*
• 7th: Heuer
• 6th: Fry*
• 6th: Foster
• LR:  Keuchel*
• LR:  Cease

[caulfield12]

22 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I don’t think Miami will be three games back come July 31st and don’t think there’s any way they win that division and are unlikely to get a Wild Card spot with reduced playoff spots.  IMO, last year was an anomaly.

As for Haniger, I actually loved him as a possible replacement for Eloy, but I’d prioritize a guy who can also play CF.  Marte gives us insurance in the event that Robert’s recovery hits a snag.  Also, Mitch is under control through 2022, so he’s likely going to cost more than Marte.

It all depends on JR being willing to a absorb salary.

Marte is earning $12.5 million this year.  He’s also 32 years old already, and is out until the beginning of June with a fractured rib.

Haniger is two years younger, and only earning $3+ million this season...plus the final arb year next season.

 

The Mariners are going to have to clear another spot for Rodriguez later this season, since they have Lewis, Kelenic and Trammell (50/50 whether his bat plays) as their future outfield.