Jose Abreu - BAD in high leverage situations

[ron883 4,824]

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jose-abreu/15676/stats#win-probability

Per Fangraphs clutch stat, Jose is -2.11 over his career. The stat measures how good a player is in high leverage situations. See below for more on the stat. 

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/clutch/

Over an entire season, -2.0 would be "Awful", while +2.0 would be "Great". I've always said it, but Jose crumbles under pressure and in the cold. Is anybody else concerned about him in the playoffs when it will certainly be colder?

Edited June 2, 2021 by ron883

[Green Line 686]

Wow, I always felt this but didn't know there was a statistic for it.  Thanks Ron.  I knew it.

[Kyyle23 4,726]

There it is 

[Kyyle23 4,726]

Also, Ron, this is embarrassing.  Stop yourself

 

[South Side Hit Men 2,660]

Per Soxtalk statistics, Ron833 carries a 100% bet welch rate.

[Green Line 686]

Just now, South Side Hit Men said:

Per Soxtalk statistics, Ron833 carries a 100% bet welch rate.

Why are you doubting the clutch stat?  Is it real or not?

[ron883 4,824]

Just now, Green Line said:

Why are you doubting the clutch stat?  Is it real or not?

People would rather use their gut than statistics when it comes to the golden boy

[harkness99 904]

leaving out that he has been above average in "clutch" the past 3 years...

 

[Nick_Schwam 158]

6 minutes ago, Green Line said:

Why are you doubting the clutch stat?  Is it real or not?

If this was football (QB) or basketball (where the star player has the ball in his hands at all times down the stretch) sure. Baseball is a completely different monster.

Jose literally as we speak leads ALLLLL of baseball in RBIs. Was his damage done in “clutch time” I guess not, but he has done a hell of a lot of damage nonetheless.

Look at the WS Sox team. Crede was “Mr Clutch” was he any where near the best player on that team? No

Jose is gonna be Jose. Top 5 run producer on a playoff team. (The REIGNING MVP haha) geeeezsh. Baseball you will have the most unlikely person be the hero.

Look at David Freese in that playoff run for the Cards, what the hell happened to him?! 
 

I know what I’m gonna get from Jose year in and year out, and I’m more then happy with that!

Edited June 2, 2021 by Nick_Schwam

[South Side Hit Men 2,660]

2 minutes ago, Green Line said:

Why are you doubting the clutch stat?  Is it real or not?

Find it laughable, but if it's "real stat", Jose Abreu has carried a positive "clutch" stat rate each of the past three seasons, the last two the only teams the White Sox actually fielded an above .500 team since Abreu landed here. 

He won an MVP last year, is 2nd in RBIs this year, and above average in "clutch" at bats the past three seasons. Not "gut or eye" observations, but rather actual production from the consensus American League MVP.

 

[Buehrle>Wood 1,279]

Jose Abreu is the best rbi man in modern baseball, for whatever that is worth

 

[Paulie4Pres 488]

Lock this thread up. Yes, let's look at this small sample size, instead of what he's done the last few years. Makes sense.🙄

 

Edited June 2, 2021 by Paulie4Pres

[southsider2k5 12,302]

There's our MVP thread creator. Hack Wilson, here he comes!

[caulfield12 4,443]

Ron, never forget!   And nothing about chewing tobacco and being a bad role model for the next generation.

Nothing about how he was on track for an unheard of 4.8 fWAR at 1B coming into the game, considered by many one of the most improved defenders in MLB this season.

Edited June 2, 2021 by caulfield12

[elrockinMT 529]

31 minutes ago, ron883 said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jose-abreu/15676/stats#win-probability

Per Fangraphs clutch stat, Jose is -2.11 over his career. The stat measures how good a player is in high leverage situations. See below for more on the stat. 

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/clutch/

Over an entire season, -2.0 would be "Awful", while +2.0 would be "Great". I've always said it, but Jose crumbles under pressure and in the cold. Is anybody else concerned about him in the playoffs when it will certainly be colder?

No I am not concerned  

[Eminor3rd 1,138]

50 minutes ago, ron883 said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jose-abreu/15676/stats#win-probability

Per Fangraphs clutch stat, Jose is -2.11 over his career. The stat measures how good a player is in high leverage situations. See below for more on the stat. 

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/clutch/

Over an entire season, -2.0 would be "Awful", while +2.0 would be "Great". I've always said it, but Jose crumbles under pressure and in the cold. Is anybody else concerned about him in the playoffs when it will certainly be colder?

This is hack-level misuse of this statistic, comparing a career counting stat total with the "awful" assessment in a single season. That would be like saying a player with 100 career RBI is elite because 100 RBI is a lot for one season. On top of that, even a cursory glance at his numbers would show you that a whopping -1.67 of that -2.11 came in 2016 alone, and that every other season he's been within -0.5 to +0.5. This is just a comically bad take and/or fabricated narrative; it's like how you'd expect cable political news to use data.

Also, suggesting that we should be concerned about playoff performance because of leverage index is, at best, a complete misunderstanding of leverage index.

And it's not a great statistic, anyway. It's really a different expression of WPA, which is useful in a descriptive way that same way RBI or runs scored is -- meaning it can be a really compelling part of say, and MVP conversation, but an incredibly bad number to use to make any sort of projection or assessment of talent.

44 minutes ago, Green Line said:

Wow, I always felt this but didn't know there was a statistic for it.  Thanks Ron.  I knew it.

 

37 minutes ago, Green Line said:

Why are you doubting the clutch stat?  Is it real or not?

The reason this stat is rarely talked about is because it's been shown to have practically no predictive value, meaning it would be a bad idea to make decisions based on it, or similarly, to be "worried about him in the playoffs." 

Edited June 2, 2021 by Eminor3rd

[Jerksticks 992]

Wall of fame thread.  Preserve this forever

[HOFHurt35 1,439]

The shit people write after single losses.

It's a Marathon folks. 

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside 3,921]

I feel bad that Steve Stone's dog Layla passed away.

[Stinky Stanky 144]

47 minutes ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

Jose Abreu is the best rbi man in modern baseball, for whatever that is worth

 

He gets a hit in G 2 or 3 of the playoffs last season and Ricky is still here and the world is young.  Or something like that.  And he's a great RBI man except when he isn't.

[SCCWS 334]

When they retire Jose's number some day, Ron will be on his roof burning his uni in effigy

[Tony 5,468]

I always enjoy when people aren’t in on the joke haha 

[Greg Hibbard 676]

I love Ron’s threads about Abreu- everything he writes on this board about him is a treasure. I hope it’s preserved forever so people can laugh at him for decades. 

[Quin 4,546]

1 hour ago, Eminor3rd said:

This is hack-level misuse of this statistic, comparing a career counting stat total with the "awful" assessment in a single season. That would be like saying a player with 100 career RBI is elite because 100 RBI is a lot for one season. On top of that, even a cursory glance at his numbers would show you that a whopping -1.67 of that -2.11 came in 2016 alone, and that every other season he's been within -0.5 to +0.5. This is just a comically bad take and/or fabricated narrative; it's like how you'd expect cable political news to use data.

Also, suggesting that we should be concerned about playoff performance because of leverage index is, at best, a complete misunderstanding of leverage index.

And it's not a great statistic, anyway. It's really a different expression of WPA, which is useful in a descriptive way that same way RBI or runs scored is -- meaning it can be a really compelling part of say, and MVP conversation, but an incredibly bad number to use to make any sort of projection or assessment of talent.

 

The reason this stat is rarely talked about is because it's been shown to have practically no predictive value, meaning it would be a bad idea to make decisions based on it, or similarly, to be "worried about him in the playoffs." 

Yo, Eminor is not gonna let you fuck around with stats and misrepresent them.

But also I'm glad I actually learned something in this thread about how FanGraph's clutch stat works.

[ron883 4,824]

1 hour ago, Eminor3rd said:

This is hack-level misuse of this statistic, comparing a career counting stat total with the "awful" assessment in a single season. That would be like saying a player with 100 career RBI is elite because 100 RBI is a lot for one season. On top of that, even a cursory glance at his numbers would show you that a whopping -1.67 of that -2.11 came in 2016 alone, and that every other season he's been within -0.5 to +0.5. This is just a comically bad take and/or fabricated narrative; it's like how you'd expect cable political news to use data.

Also, suggesting that we should be concerned about playoff performance because of leverage index is, at best, a complete misunderstanding of leverage index.

And it's not a great statistic, anyway. It's really a different expression of WPA, which is useful in a descriptive way that same way RBI or runs scored is -- meaning it can be a really compelling part of say, and MVP conversation, but an incredibly bad number to use to make any sort of projection or assessment of talent.

 

The reason this stat is rarely talked about is because it's been shown to have practically no predictive value, meaning it would be a bad idea to make decisions based on it, or similarly, to be "worried about him in the playoffs." 

I clearly wrote in the original post that the ratings are based on a singal season.

2 hours ago, ron883 said:

Over an entire season, -2.0 would be "Awful", while +2.0 would be "Great". 

I never said to compare that to his career Clutch. Many people here have questioned Jose's ability to perform in high leverage situations. It's "not predictive" according to you, but this sure as hell confirms what some of us have been saying. Tbh, what worries me more than this stat is if the weather is too cold in the playoffs. Jose is a notorious warm weather hitter.