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ron883

Jose Abreu - BAD in high leverage situations

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2 hours ago, Green Line said:

Why are you doubting the clutch stat?  Is it real or not?

You don't know about the Ron beef with Abreu. Hell he use to hate on Abreu for chewing tobacco because "he was setting a bad example for kids" or some shit.

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3 minutes ago, SoxAce said:

You don't know about the Ron beef with Abreu. Hell he use to hate on Abreu for chewing tobacco because "he was setting a bad example for kids" or some shit.

thats dumb

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Let's put a retractable dome over GRF largely because of Ron's post about warm weather Abreu. 

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Posted (edited)

Geez, Ron your obsession about Jose is embarrassing. Truly your stance on Jose gives fans a bad name. Try to look at him big picture. If you are mad about the chewing tobacco, just ride that horse. You can continue to point out that's the reason you despise him if that is the reason. You don't need to be ultra critical of the player/hitter. It really truly does give fans a bad name. No reason to disparage the guy as a player.

As ar as today, Stuff happens. He made the final out. Who cares? He's a very good baseball hitter and fielder. I'd give him an A and say he'd be a starter on every team or almost every team in MLB. Surprised you can't enjoy the Jose era on the southside.

p.s. I love Yermin but isn't baseball strange? His BA is down to .304, which is still good but remember how long he was over .400? The regression to the mean has to happen for every player. I really do think hitting a baseball where they ain't is the hardest thing to do in sports. If I were a hitter, I'd rather figure a way to hit .350 with only 15 HRs and 80 RBIs than hit .275 with 47 HRs and 110 RBI cause it must be so frustrating to make an out. The sport is cruel to hitters. Excellence means failing seven of 10 times.

Edited by greg775
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28 minutes ago, ron883 said:

I clearly wrote in the original post that the ratings are based on a singal season.

I never said to compare that to his career Clutch. Many people here have questioned Jose's ability to perform in high leverage situations. It's "not predictive" according to you, but this sure as hell confirms what some of us have been saying. Tbh, what worries me more than this stat is if the weather is too cold in the playoffs. Jose is a notorious warm weather hitter. 

But it DOESN’T confirm what some of you have been saying. Even if the stat was good, his only season with a clutch stat even approaching terrible was five years ago. The argument isn’t even internally consistent — Abreu has an ABOVE AVERAGE clutch score for three consecutive seasons now

And it isn’t “not predictive” according to ME, it’s not predictive according to the people who have researched it. It’s even stated directly on the fangraphs page you linked that it isn’t predictive. 

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1 hour ago, Quin said:

Yo, Eminor is not gonna let you fuck around with stats and misrepresent them.

But also I'm glad I actually learned something in this thread about how FanGraph's clutch stat works.

It’s my most reliable trigger. 

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5 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

It’s my most reliable trigger. 

Not chewing tobacco or "Latin Americans with a supposedly increased propensity for DV," lol...

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Posted (edited)

I read the first post and didnt want to waste my time thinking about how stupid this topic was, but I couldn't help but want to see how a few of you guys would tear into it.  Didn't disappoint me.

Edited by TheBlackSox8

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3 hours ago, ron883 said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jose-abreu/15676/stats#win-probability

Per Fangraphs clutch stat, Jose is -2.11 over his career. The stat measures how good a player is in high leverage situations. See below for more on the stat. 

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/clutch/

Over an entire season, -2.0 would be "Awful", while +2.0 would be "Great". I've always said it, but Jose crumbles under pressure and in the cold. Is anybody else concerned about him in the playoffs when it will certainly be colder?

Original Post Above ^^^

1 hour ago, ron883 said:

I clearly wrote in the original post that the ratings are based on a singal season.

I never said to compare that to his career Clutch. Many people here have questioned Jose's ability to perform in high leverage situations. It's "not predictive" according to you, but this sure as hell confirms what some of us have been saying. Tbh, what worries me more than this stat is if the weather is too cold in the playoffs. Jose is a notorious warm weather hitter. 

You did not "clearly" write or mention in the original post that his ratings are based on a "singal" (sic) season. You stated that you have "always" said Jose crumbles under pressure and in the cold.

The stat you used to support this theory indicates Abreu is actually "clutch" the past three seasons, the past two of which are the only seasons the White Sox team around him were actually playing games of consequence which "clutch" hitting actually mattered. Jose's rating during the first two months of this season, conducted, wait for it, during the "cold" April and May months (0.33), is the same as last year's rating played in August and September (0.33).

Furthermore, your "cold" theory holds no water. Jose is a slow starter. His September/October Splits (w/OBP .372, OPS .884, wRC+ 138) are higher than every month except August. Jose performs better in the second half, because of timing and being immersed in the season. If his performance was weather induced, his September / October splits would be lower than his June and July splits, performed during warmer weather.

tenor.gif

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10 hours ago, Paulie4Pres said:

Lock this thread up. Yes, let's look at this small sample size, instead of what he's done the last few years. Makes sense.🙄

 

Did you just dismiss the stat based on small sample size, and then tell us to focus on a smaller few year window during said small sample size?  

"Makes sense 🙄"

 

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4 minutes ago, GREEDY said:

Did you just dismiss the stat based on small sample size, and then tell us to focus on a smaller few year window during said small sample size?  

"Makes sense 🙄"

 

No, he said "let's not look at only this season numbers, let's look at a larger set of numbers"

which actually does "makes sense" 

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It boggles my mind the Sox get this player who is thought of as nothing but a great teammate and person. Who actually plays baseball well enough he won an MVP award. And there are Sox fans that still seem to live to whine about him.

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11 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

No, he said "let's not look at only this season numbers, let's look at a larger set of numbers"

which actually does "makes sense" 

Nope.  That is his career number ron is talking about and he dismissed it as small sample size and told us to focus on the past few years.  

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28 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

It boggles my mind the Sox get this player who is thought of as nothing but a great teammate and person. Who actually plays baseball well enough he won an MVP award. And there are Sox fans that still seem to live to whine about him.

Not fans.  Just Ron.

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Even Michael Jordan missed game winning shots, it happens...the Sox wouldn't be nowhere near as good as they are without Jose. Dumb thread.

 

 

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15 hours ago, ron883 said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jose-abreu/15676/stats#win-probability

Per Fangraphs clutch stat, Jose is -2.11 over his career. The stat measures how good a player is in high leverage situations. See below for more on the stat. 

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/clutch/

Over an entire season, -2.0 would be "Awful", while +2.0 would be "Great". I've always said it, but Jose crumbles under pressure and in the cold. Is anybody else concerned about him in the playoffs when it will certainly be colder?

Wow, based on this ridiculous BS stat, we should probably disregard the fact that once again Jose is leading MLB in RBI's with 46 and since the 2020 season, he is #1 in baseball with 106 RBI's in 111 games over the past two seasons. I wish MLB would go back to the old stat of game winning RBI's that they kept from 1980-1988. I think Jose would be among the league leaders in that category as well. 

However maybe you're right and it's time to panic. You should probably call up Rick Hahn and give him this insightful information. You could suggest maybe he trade him at the July trade deadline and get some prospects for him. You should tell Hahn to be proactive and trade him now, so we don't have to worry about Jose letting us down in the clutch in the '21 playoffs. LMAO!

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Now I'm sad there wasn't a game today...Jose would be due five 2 out rbis and a walkoff in the game after this thread.

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14 hours ago, SoxAce said:

You don't know about the Ron beef with Abreu. Hell he use to hate on Abreu for chewing tobacco because "he was setting a bad example for kids" or some shit.

He isn’t?

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9 minutes ago, wegner said:

Now I'm sad there wasn't a game today...Jose would be due five 2 out rbis and a walkoff in the game after this thread.

Every year this thread pops up he takes off.

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2 minutes ago, Vulture said:

He isn’t?

Dumb reason to b**** about a player when other players are also doing the same thing.

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Jose Abreu is one of the best players in White Sox history. Outside the diamond I also believe his success and having him as an ambassador has/will continue to have long lasting implications with Latino players. 

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