More Moncada hot takez

[TheBlackSox8]

9 hours ago, Lillian said:

If he becomes the player that he is, so far this year, with "25 HR power," I would be very happy. If injuries are really the reason that he isn't hitting for power this season, then we'll just have to wait until he's healthy. I sure hope so, because he is going to be very expensive, during the last 3 years of that contract. As I stated earlier, $24 & $25 million is lot to pay a guy producing what he is producing this year. Mr. Reinsdorf's unwillingness to spend big, means that the Sox can't afford to be paying that much money to anyone, who isn't a super star.

Look at the production you're getting out of him for this year alone, and how much he's getting paid for it.   Huge fucking bargain.  I'd happily pay him 25 per year if he produces 5+ WAR

[kitekrazy]

On 7/13/2021 at 4:23 AM, hogan873 said:

You'd think from reading some folks' takes on Moncada that he's performing like Conor Gillaspie or Mark Teahen.

or Josh Fields, they also tried to turn Viciedo playing 3rd

I guess people can't realize they filled that long glaring whole at 3rd

I wonder how Red Sox fans feel about that trade right now.

[ron883]

14 minutes ago, kitekrazy said:

or Josh Fields, they also tried to turn Viciedo playing 3rd

I guess people can't realize they filled that long glaring whole at 3rd

I wonder how Red Sox fans feel about that trade right now.

They have Devers at 3rd and won a world series after 2 dominant seasons from Sale. I'm sure they feel fine about it. 

[hogan873]

4 hours ago, ron883 said:

They have Devers at 3rd and won a world series after 2 dominant seasons from Sale. I'm sure they feel fine about it. 

Yeah, this was one of those trades that has seemed to work out for both teams.

[Lillian]

Let me preface this post with the admission that I'm not very conversant with some of the more nuanced saber metrics. I'm kind of "old school". Give me OBP and SLG% and that kind of tells me how to rate an offensive player. I've been trying to understand this wOBA statistic, or weighted On Base Average. Here is a precise definition:  

Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is one of the most important and popular catch-all offensive statistics. It was created by Tom Tango (and notably used in “The Book”) to measure a hitter’s overall offensive value, based on the relative values of each distinct offensive event.

Since we're discussing how good of an offensive player Moncada is, I thought that it might be useful to see where he ranks in wOBA. He is 57TH among all of MLB. His wOBA is .357, which is considered "above average". Putting that stat into perspective, relative to his other more traditional stats, he is interestingly enough, also 57TH, with a .791 OPS. His one exceptional stat is his .401 OBP, which is 5TH best in baseball. There is no argument that he is getting on base, the value of which has long ago been recognized.

The fact that he doesn't steal bases, somewhat diminishes the value of his high number of walks. He is not hitting home runs, so if he could use his elite speed, to get into scoring position, that might make him a terrific lead off hitter. However, he is not leading off, and he was expected to be a run producer, not just a run scorer. 

As I've already stated. He's a very good player, and I like him. It just seems disappointing that he is not performing like the 5 tool guy, most of us expected. He is hitting for a decent average, and walking a lot. However, he is not hitting the long ball, so the "power" tool isn't there. Nor is he stealing bases, which significantly diminishes the value of his "run" tool. Speed is not much of a factor at the hot corner. It does impact his ability to come in on bunts and swinging bunts, and he can certainly throw on the run, as well as anyone. Then too, there is the base running element, to speed. But there too, his speed is somewhat offset by his poor decision making. He is not a good base runner.

It's an interesting discussion and it appears as though there are going to remain diverse opinions on just how good Yoan is. The one thing, upon which most of us can agree, is that he has the tools and the talent to be even better. Let's hope that we see him realizing more of his potential, and soon.

 

 

 

 

Edited July 15, 2021 by Lillian

[Kyyle23]

Stolen bases simply aren't a metric that players should be held to anymore.  They are becoming a relic, nobody does it anymore.  

[Bunt Ritual]

Moncada seems to have become the new Robinson Cano, in that people will endlessly debate about how good he is.  Those types of debates have a tendency to get irrational and nonsensical.  For example, someone on The Athletic's fantasy baseball podcast said Moncada would have a bad year because he released that single over the offseason. 

It's shame because the dude has worked his butt off.  The fact that he was able to still play last year as a COVID long hauler is a feat in itself.

[Jack Parkman]

 

[Kyyle23]

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

 

Almost like everyone has been saying 

[Lillian]

1 hour ago, Kyyle23 said:

Almost like everyone has been saying 

I read the Fan Graphs' article. Interesting read, thanks for the link.

[South Side Hit Men]

2 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

 

Thanks, good article.

Hoping Jose Abreu can heat up in the second half. His fWAR impacted by the defense and position hit he takes as a 1B.

Anderson’s recent hot stretch has really helped the team as well.

White Sox Position Players with >= 1 WAR in 2021

Player	PA	wRC+	wOBA	WAR
Yoán Moncada	334	129	.357	2.8
Tim Anderson	330	114	.335	2.4
Yasmani Grandal	215	134	.365	1.9
Nick Madrigal	215	115	.337	1.4
José Abreu	356	117	.339	1.2
Leury García	270	96	.308	1.2
Luis Robert	103	127	.355	1.0

 

Edited July 16, 2021 by South Side Hit Men

[caulfield12]

On 7/15/2021 at 9:49 PM, Bunt Ritual said:

Moncada seems to have become the new Robinson Cano, in that people will endlessly debate about how good he is.  Those types of debates have a tendency to get irrational and nonsensical.  For example, someone on The Athletic's fantasy baseball podcast said Moncada would have a bad year because he released that single over the offseason. 

It's shame because the dude has worked his butt off.  The fact that he was able to still play last year as a COVID long hauler is a feat in itself.

Well, except Cano was pretty much a HoF hitter the first 8-10 years of his career…part of it was Yankees hype, but still.

[Bunt Ritual]

25 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Well, except Cano was pretty much a HoF hitter the first 8-10 years of his career…part of it was Yankees hype, but still.

 

That's beside the point.  I grew up in Yankee country, and there was definitely a vocal part of that fanbase who never thought he was that good. 

[Eminor3rd]

On 7/15/2021 at 8:36 AM, Lillian said:

Let me preface this post with the admission that I'm not very conversant with some of the more nuanced saber metrics. I'm kind of "old school". Give me OBP and SLG% and that kind of tells me how to rate an offensive player. I've been trying to understand this wOBA statistic, or weighted On Base Average. Here is a precise definition:  

Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is one of the most important and popular catch-all offensive statistics. It was created by Tom Tango (and notably used in “The Book”) to measure a hitter’s overall offensive value, based on the relative values of each distinct offensive event.

Since we're discussing how good of an offensive player Moncada is, I thought that it might be useful to see where he ranks in wOBA. He is 57TH among all of MLB. His wOBA is .357, which is considered "above average". Putting that stat into perspective, relative to his other more traditional stats, he is interestingly enough, also 57TH, with a .791 OPS. His one exceptional stat is his .401 OBP, which is 5TH best in baseball. There is no argument that he is getting on base, the value of which has long ago been recognized.

The fact that he doesn't steal bases, somewhat diminishes the value of his high number of walks. He is not hitting home runs, so if he could use his elite speed, to get into scoring position, that might make him a terrific lead off hitter. However, he is not leading off, and he was expected to be a run producer, not just a run scorer. 

As I've already stated. He's a very good player, and I like him. It just seems disappointing that he is not performing like the 5 tool guy, most of us expected. He is hitting for a decent average, and walking a lot. However, he is not hitting the long ball, so the "power" tool isn't there. Nor is he stealing bases, which significantly diminishes the value of his "run" tool. Speed is not much of a factor at the hot corner. It does impact his ability to come in on bunts and swinging bunts, and he can certainly throw on the run, as well as anyone. Then too, there is the base running element, to speed. But there too, his speed is somewhat offset by his poor decision making. He is not a good base runner.

It's an interesting discussion and it appears as though there are going to remain diverse opinions on just how good Yoan is. The one thing, upon which most of us can agree, is that he has the tools and the talent to be even better. Let's hope that we see him realizing more of his potential, and soon.

 

 

 

 

But here's the thing that people like so much about wOBA/wRC+/other linear weights-based statistics -- they are specifically designed to factor in the relative value of every piece, meaning that if you have an above average line, it means it's above average DESPITE whatever flaws you may have. In other words, it explicitly answers the question of "does his high OBP outweigh the low SLG enough that he's still an above average hitter," and the answer, so far, is yes. Not only is it yes, but yes to the extent that he's (as of now) 28% above average in total offensive production EVEN AFTER you factor the low power output.

Edited July 17, 2021 by Eminor3rd

[kitekrazy]

On 7/15/2021 at 5:44 AM, Kyyle23 said:

Stolen bases simply aren't a metric that players should be held to anymore.  They are becoming a relic, nobody does it anymore.  

Most of the modern players seem to get those leg injuries so less stealing.  I miss that part of the game.  

[TaylorStSox]

Moncada has a lot going on at the plate. He's a bit high maintenance, but you can see him putting it all together and becoming a complete hitter. If healthy, I think he'll have a 2-3 year window where he'll be the 2nd best hitter in Sox history. After that, I think we'll see him turn into more of a 3 outcome player and become a very good power hitter who's not nearly as dynamic. The power is there. 

[ron883]

On 7/16/2021 at 10:31 AM, South Side Hit Men said:

Thanks, good article.

Hoping Jose Abreu can heat up in the second half. His fWAR impacted by the defense and position hit he takes as a 1B.

Anderson’s recent hot stretch has really helped the team as well.

White Sox Position Players with >= 1 WAR in 2021

Player	PA	wRC+	wOBA	WAR
Yoán Moncada	334	129	.357	2.8
Tim Anderson	330	114	.335	2.4
Yasmani Grandal	215	134	.365	1.9
Nick Madrigal	215	115	.337	1.4
José Abreu	356	117	.339	1.2
Leury García	270	96	.308	1.2
Luis Robert	103	127	.355	1.0

 

Robert is nearly a 7 WAR player if he doesn't get hurt. What a freaking monster. 

[TomPickle]

The Moncada Haterz get a little credence to their opinions as Moncada is taken off the top 50 most valuable trade pieces list at FanGraphs due to his lack of power this season (Anderson lands at #47 and Madrigal #44).

Personally, I think this is insane.

[chitownsportsfan]

5 minutes ago, TomPickle said:

The Moncada Haterz get a little credence to their opinions as Moncada is taken off the top 50 most valuable trade pieces list at FanGraphs due to his lack of power this season (Anderson lands at #47 and Madrigal #44).

Personally, I think this is insane.

That list is a good conversation starter but for most the guys outside the top 10 or so I think it's mostly just speculation.

[Bob Sacamano]

What a bum

[Tnetennba]

 

[caulfield12]

On 7/18/2021 at 3:50 AM, ron883 said:

Robert is nearly a 7 WAR player if he doesn't get hurt. What a freaking monster. 

Dangerous to extrapolate from just one month of play.

The homers will come, eventually.  The defense in CF might be even more important, but you would get completely different players if you separated his brief career into three clearly defined statistical stretches.

[caulfield12]

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=22,d
 

Moncada should be in the high teens tmrw in his fWAR rankings for all of MLB, right around Machado.

Gallo, fwiw, has really exploded up this list when you consider how cold he started out offensively.

[caulfield12]

 

 

Take that, Hot Takez

Even Stone recently has been very complimentary about his hustle down the line on a foul popup and his ability to throw across his body on the move like the last out of the game against Donaldson.

Edited July 21, 2021 by caulfield12

[chitownsportsfan]

On 7/16/2021 at 6:31 PM, Eminor3rd said:

But here's the thing that people like so much about wOBA/wRC+/other linear weights-based statistics -- they are specifically designed to factor in the relative value of every piece, meaning that if you have an above average line, it means it's above average DESPITE whatever flaws you may have. In other words, it explicitly answers the question of "does his high OBP outweigh the low SLG enough that he's still an above average hitter," and the answer, so far, is yes. Not only is it yes, but yes to the extent that he's (as of now) 28% above average in total offensive production EVEN AFTER you factor the low power output.

you need to drop more bombs bruh.