Machado and Harper: Hindsight

[ron883]

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/bryce-harper/11579/stats?position=OF

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/manny-machado/11493/stats?position=3B

Based on how they have produced so far, are you glad the Sox didn't sign them to the contracts they have? Both are hitting pretty decently. Harper looks to be on a 3~ WAR pace, and Machado on a 5.5~ WAR pace. Machado's first year was unwhelming, but he's turned it up the past 2 years. Harper had a goos first year, but appears to be about a 4 WAR player at this point. 

In hindsight, I'm glad the Sox didn't spend big bucks on them. No need for Machado with Moncada. Harper's production just doesn't warrant his contract, IMO. 

Edited July 14, 2021 by ron883

[South Side Hit Men]

I say it every off season, a team with a middle payroll ($130M) can’t afford to tie up 20% + in a single player Harper $27M, Manny $32M. You cannot recover from a “bad contract”, with the odds of one becoming bad great as you move beyond age 27-29 seasons.

Really need to be very conservative handing out contracts over $10M (7.5%) / year beyond elite younger players.

[mqr]

In retrospect, they really should have been targeting Harper more. 

[Jack Parkman]

I still wish they signed Harper. 

[chitownsportsfan]

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I still wish they signed Harper. 

You want to pay 330 million for a 4 WAR player leaving his prime?

Thank god they didn't sign Harper.  Harper has never lived up to his 9 WAR season or frankly his billing.  People want to rip Moncada for only being a 4-5 WAR player, well Harper is 28 and is basically a very good regular, borderline all-star.  He was billed as a once a decade superstar.

[mqr]

Idk at the end of the day we ended up with a first place team who looks to be in first place for a good long while. Hard to complain either way. 

[chitownsportsfan]

On a related note I did a bit of a deep dive into Lindor's stats last night.  WTF were the Mets thinking? There are red flags everywhere in his underlying offensive stats. There is no question TA is the better player now and going forward, even with Lindor's defense being near elite at SS.

[Balta1701]

14 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

On a related note I did a bit of a deep dive into Lindor's stats last night.  WTF were the Mets thinking? There are red flags everywhere in his underlying offensive stats. There is no question TA is the better player now and going forward, even with Lindor's defense being near elite at SS.

Really? Care to elaborate? Genuinely curious what those red flags were after watching him kick our butts for 5 years.

[poppysox]

36 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

I say it every off season, a team with a middle payroll ($130M) can’t afford to tie up 20% + in a single player Harper $27M, Manny $32M. You cannot recover from a “bad contract”, with the odds of one becoming bad great as you move beyond age 27-29 seasons.

Really need to be very conservative handing out contracts over $10M (7.5%) / year beyond elite younger players.

I agree 100%.  One player just can't tie up such a large amount of available funds.  Comes back to haunt seemingly every team that goes this route.  Harper & Machado already have underperformed their contracts with years and years to go.

[chitownsportsfan]

26 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Really? Care to elaborate? Genuinely curious what those red flags were after watching him kick our butts for 5 years.

Something is just broken in his batted ball profile.  Despite above average exit velocity he's below avg in both expected slugging and expected BA.  His BABIP numbers bear this out, where he's at a career .294 and trending down. ZIPS projects him for only a .268 BABIP ROS. He hits way too many ground balls.  Furthermore, he was incredibly lucky on HR/FB% in 2018 and 19 when over 17% of his fly balls left the park.  This year he's down to a more reasonable 11.2%.  He's def a guy that has been hurt by MLB taking the juice out of the ball.

He's still a good player, a very good defensive SS that can hit league average or slightly better.  But the back end of that contract is going to be fucking ugly for the Mets.  In fact, I'd bet that in 2024 when he's 30 that without a dramatic change in his batted ball profile he's down to a 2.5 WAR true talent player.  His defense at age 30 isn't going to be enough to carry him to 4-5 fWAR seasons.

Edited July 14, 2021 by chitownsportsfan

[turnin' two]

If I had the power to go back and change one White Sox move, it wouldn't be adding Machado or Harper.  It'd be Machado's teammate.

 

That said, either one would be pretty good right now.  But as was mentioned, hard to complain.  I'm happy with how things have worked out.

Edited July 14, 2021 by turnin' two

[South Side Hit Men]

8 minutes ago, poppysox said:

I agree 100%.  One player just can't tie up such a large amount of available funds.  Comes back to haunt seemingly every team that goes this route.  Harper & Machado already have underperformed their contracts with years and years to go.

It’s not just underperformance. Injuries are a factor, and then you toxic but talented players like Trevor Bauer who Sox Talk collectively wanted more than any other FA this off-season.

It’s why I rather focus on completed transactions vs. trade/external FA  rumors and debates over leakers and fake fast food twitter handles. 

I love that those discussions are isolated before the deadline, would be cool if that was a permanent folder.

[Chick Mercedes]

 

1 hour ago, ron883 said:

 

In hindsight, I'm glad the Sox didn't spend big bucks on them. No need for Machado with Moncada. Harper's production just doesn't warrant his contract, IMO. 

The situation at the time was that the Sox desperately wanted to step up in class as a team, and Machado was a way to get it done. There’s a hella lot to be said for an infield of Machado, Anderson, and Moncada. That was the way to look at it. Replacing Tatis Jr as best as humanly possible is kind of the cleansing move fans were thinking about in the back of their minds imo. It would have been very expensive to wash away the original sin, sure. But the Sox have maintained and progressed somewhat anyway, which is nice. When you look at the money it is going to take to pay some of our guys on their next deals, Machado’s deal would have likely necessitated a trade or two down the line, rolling some assets forward. Depends on how you view it, it is probably not a forgone conclusion either way which is preferable. But adding an extra asset like Machado was always going to be a huge move forward, again simply  as an additional asset to the mix rapidly growing the team. Or something that  would have made the organization whole again (almost)

Edited July 14, 2021 by Chick Mercedes

[chitownsportsfan]

5 minutes ago, Chick Mercedes said:

 

The situation at the time was that the Sox desperately wanted to step up in class as a team, and Machado was a way to get it done. There’s a hella lot to be said for an infield of Machado, Anderson, and Moncada. That was the way to look at it. Replacing Tatis Jr as best as humanly possible is kind of the cleansing move fans were thinking about in the back of their minds imo. It would have been very expensive to wash away the original sin, sure. But the Sox have maintained and progressed somewhat anyway, which is nice. When you look at the money it is going to take to pay some of our guys on their next deals, Machado’s deal would have likely necessitated a trade or two down the line, rolling some assets forward. Depends on how you view it, it is probably not a forgone conclusion either way which is preferable. But adding an extra asset like Machado was always going to be a huge move forward, again simply  as an additional asset to the mix rapidly growing the team. Or something that  would have made the organization whole again (almost)

that's a great summary of the narrative at the time.  turns out Sox didn't need Manny to take the next step, which is great. I was wrong about that and I think probably 85% or so of Soxtalk was as well.  The Sox have shown a commitment to winning imo, maybe not with a huge increase in payroll, but certainly with the move to Katz and other organizational changes.

Edited July 14, 2021 by chitownsportsfan

[Chick Mercedes]

6 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

that's a great summary of the narrative at the time.  turns out Sox didn't need Manny to take the next step, which is great.

It would be hard to argue the Sox wouldn’t be in better shape in the present and future if Machado was here though. An unfathomable pile of assets that Hahn would have an easy time flipping forward indefinitely. They can still do that if they want, just not as extreme of an embarrassment of riches as it would have been. But we happy. I don’t think the Sox really put themselves in a situation  to compete for him realistically  with the deal they offered. The Sox approach was runninh a Jedi mind trick on Machado’s agent…..take this deal, we think it is better, even if it is not the deal you want.  So you know, we could not have it our way like Burger King, he was never gonna be ours. Losing out on Manny wasn’t a loss because we were never a good match for his market. 

[Chick Mercedes]

34 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

. I was wrong about that and I think probably 85% or so of Soxtalk was as well.  The Sox have shown a commitment to winning imo, maybe not with a huge increase in payroll, but certainly with the move to Katz and other organizational changes.

The Sox are built like a train to last. We were all pretty hopeful on a theoretical basis based on prospects etc, but you never know. This fanbase was pretty conditioned to     be paranoid about anything working out because we aren’t used to nice things and have a lot of baggage lol. The change is probably a combination of commitment to winning which was more or less there to an extent already, but with a nod to finally ditching Kenny Williamsism for a more traditional approach all the other kids were doing. The Sox still have pioneered some things along the way, like these early long term contracts.

Edited July 14, 2021 by Chick Mercedes

[bighurt574]

I would have settled for Castellanos in RF.  

[WBWSF]

I often wondered if the White Sox tried to sign Ohtani.

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, WBWSF said:

I often wondered if the White Sox tried to sign Ohtani.

They tried.  He wanted a west coast team.

[wegner]

I personally prefer that the White Sox went ahead and spent that $$ on....uhhh...hold on....I'll get back to you in a bit.

[black jack]

I wanted one or both because I thought it would signal the Sox being a team that spent to the tax.

 

 

And because I'm a meatball. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, chitownsportsfan said:

that's a great summary of the narrative at the time.  turns out Sox didn't need Manny to take the next step, which is great. I was wrong about that and I think probably 85% or so of Soxtalk was as well.  The Sox have shown a commitment to winning imo, maybe not with a huge increase in payroll, but certainly with the move to Katz and other organizational changes.

A commitment to winning starts and ends with the checkbook. Signing a freaking pitching coach doesn't symbolize a commitment to winning. Jfc

[wegner]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

A commitment to winning starts and ends with the checkbook. Signing a freaking pitching coach doesn't symbolize a commitment to winning. Jfc

Firing one might though. 

[michelangelosmonkey]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

A commitment to winning starts and ends with the checkbook. Signing a freaking pitching coach doesn't symbolize a commitment to winning. Jfc

I think that's fair which is what is going to make this year's trade deadline/next off season so interesting.  RH has said "the money will be spent".  I have been a big proponent of protecting your financial assets until you really need them...so I was fine with them not burning the extra money this past off season...I just didn't believe that 2021 was the "all in" year...as you could expect growing pains from Madrigal, Robert, Vaughn, Collins, Eloy, etc.  But as the team locomotive seems to be building a head of steam this is the offseason to prove it.  If the Sox had signed Machado or Harper three years ago their financial flexibility is gone.  But it should be there now...so let's say Rodon continues doing 2021 Rodon the rest of the season...pitches 180 innings and finished with a 6 WAR....no arm trouble.  Now there is no excuse for not giving him, say, a 4 year $100 million contract...after all given the construct of the team...locking in a dominating under 30 left handed starter for four years is exactly what they need.   If management lets him walk...and Lynn walk...and doesn't trade for or sign an expensive replacement...well then I'm ready to join the JR haters that he's cheap and will never pay.  I just think the team will pay to keep this group going.

[oldsox]

4 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Something is just broken in his batted ball profile.  Despite above average exit velocity he's below avg in both expected slugging and expected BA.  His BABIP numbers bear this out, where he's at a career .294 and trending down. ZIPS projects him for only a .268 BABIP ROS. He hits way too many ground balls.  Furthermore, he was incredibly lucky on HR/FB% in 2018 and 19 when over 17% of his fly balls left the park.  This year he's down to a more reasonable 11.2%.  He's def a guy that has been hurt by MLB taking the juice out of the ball.

He's still a good player, a very good defensive SS that can hit league average or slightly better.  But the back end of that contract is going to be fucking ugly for the Mets.  In fact, I'd bet that in 2024 when he's 30 that without a dramatic change in his batted ball profile he's down to a 2.5 WAR true talent player.  His defense at age 30 isn't going to be enough to carry him to 4-5 fWAR seasons.

I  have always said that agents are much smarter than GM's.