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7-23 GT: Sox @ Brewers (7:10pm)

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Posted (edited)

Alright boys, the Sox have a huge series in Milwaukee this weekend as it could be a preview of this year’s World Series.  Both teams are starting their top three arms and all these guys are currently ranked in the top 21 in terms of fWAR.  These six guys will make up the top two rotations come October and our offense is really going to be put to the test these next handful of days.

Today’s matchup is arguably each team’s #3 based on results with Lucas Giolito (8-6, 3.66 xFIP, 2.3 fWAR) facing Freddy Peralta (7-3, 3.70 xFIP, 2.4 fWAR), but that’s understating just how talented these two dudes are.  Peralta enters today with the 6th highest K/9 amongst starters at 12.40, which has helped him put up a 95th percentile xwOBA.  Freddy doesn’t have overwhelming stuff velocity wise, but his 4 seamer has gotten a tremendous 31% whiff rate this year due to a mix of plus spin & deception.  However, his real weapon is a slider he introduced this year that he’s thrown 27% of the time with a 45% whiff rate.  This pitch in particular is going to give our right-handed bats real problems today.  Beyond those two pitches, he also throws a curveball & changeup that are primarily used against lefties.  Both are effective pitches with ~30% whiff rates and it’s remarkable how Freddy has been able to grow from a two pitch pitcher who relied heavily on his fastball into a legit starting pitcher with a diverse arsenal.  As the appetizer of the series, he will not be fun.

While Peralta has made significant strides this year, Lucas has definitely underwhelmed to some extent.  His core numbers are mostly down, with a decreasing K rate (down 1.0 to 1.5 per 9) and rising HR rate (up 0.3 to 0.5 per 9) being the core of his problems.  From a fastball perspective, his velocity has been very similar to the past two years, sitting right around 94 MPH on average.  And despite Balta’s spidertack theory, the spin rate on his 4 seamer hasn’t dropped that significantly (down ~2% in his last start) and his carry remains very strong.  To me, I think the problem is primarily location and the fact that people are starting to catch onto his change-up heavy repertoire a bit.  He’s generating less whiffs on all three of his main pitches, but only the 4 seamer is seeing a significant up-tick in damage vs. prior year, with most of it coming against righties.  Lucas needs to more consistently hit his spots above the zone with the fastball or find a way to wipe out guys more frequently with the slider down & out as both pitches are catching a bit more of the zone this year.

The good news for us is that Milwaukee doesn’t have a great offense, ranking 22nd overall in terms of wRC+ at 89.  For comparison, we are 2nd overall at 112 despite all our injuries.  With Yelich underperforming, the offense has been carried by former White Sox catcher Omar Narvaez (126 wRC+) and mid-season addition Willy Adames (153 wRC+).  This is simply not a lineup worth fearing and Giolito has held their hitters to a .565 OPS over 37 plate appearances (SSS admittedly).  The Sox should have a slight edge today, but it will be a battle and finding a way to start both Goodwin & Sheets in the OF would make a ton of sense given how much better Peralta is vs. righties.

Let’s fucking go!

Edited by Chicago White Sox
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Will be at the game tonight.

I expect a low scoring game with Gio really shutting down the Brewers tonight 

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Looked up some of Peralta's numbers last night. He averages 4 hits per 9ip and 12.4k/9.  That's an elite ability to miss bats.

44 Walks in 98 innings, so control seems to be his achilles but still has a WHIP under .9

Our hitters will have to work counts and Gio will have to pitch like he did last Saturday. 

I'll be in attendance tonight, can't wait.

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2 minutes ago, KrankinSox said:

Looked up some of Peralta's numbers last night. He averages 4 hits per 9ip and 12.4k/9.  That's an elite ability to miss bats.

44 Walks in 98 innings, so control seems to be his achilles but still has a WHIP under .9

Our hitters will have to work counts and Gio will have to pitch like he did last Saturday. 

I'll be in attendance tonight, can't wait.

Please clap extra hard for La Russa on my behalf

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1 minute ago, ron883 said:

Please clap extra hard for La Russa on my behalf

Quick question, other than just to be a contrarian, why do you have such a hard time with Abreu dipping, but no problem with Tony driving around hammered?

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5 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Please clap extra hard for La Russa on my behalf

Already packed a few ice bags to ice my hands after the game for all the excessive clapping for Tony.

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Quick question, other than just to be a contrarian, why do you have such a hard time with Abreu dipping, but no problem with Tony driving around hammered?

Abreu still dips. It is incredibly unsightly and sets a poor example. Tony doesn't drive around hammered anymore as far as I can tell. It's a dispicable thing Tony did. However, it's over and done with, and he is now leading this team like King Leonidas lead the Spartans during the Battle of Thermopylae.

Edited by ron883
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1 minute ago, ron883 said:

Abreu still dips. It is incredibly unsightly and sets a poor example. Tony doesn't drive around hammered anymore as far as I can tell. It's a dispicable thing Tony did. However, it's over and done with, and he is now leading this team like King Leonidas lead the Spartans during the Battle of Thermopylae.

In other words, you're a contrarian.

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5 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Abreu still dips. It is incredibly unsightly and sets a poor example. Tony doesn't drive around hammered anymore as far as I can tell. It's a dispicable thing Tony did. However, it's over and done with, and he is now leading this team like King Leonidas lead the Spartans during the Battle of Thermopylae.

At least you're consistent.

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I mean Ron's the very definition of troll, there's no real logic to any of it, he posts exclusively to get a rise out of people. Dude likes attention.

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Posted (edited)

12 year anniversary of Buehrle's perfect game.  Sox will be playing in the stadium that Buehrle hit his 1 career home run.

Gio should honor Mark by pitching a perfect game and hitting a HR in a 1-0 win. Anything less than this performance will be shameful.

Edited by KrankinSox
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My post history shows how much I was against the TLR hiring. I almost became a Cubs fan because of it. I've let bygones be bygones though. TLR has done an incredible job, and I'm just enjoying the master showing off his craft at this point. 

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1 minute ago, Kalapse said:

I mean Ron's the very definition of troll, there's no real logic to any of it, he posts exclusively to get a rise out of people. Dude likes attention.

I thought you're too good to post in game threads with us plebs? Beat it.

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9 minutes ago, Kalapse said:

I mean Ron's the very definition of troll, there's no real logic to any of it, he posts exclusively to get a rise out of people. Dude likes attention.

It's true, but he is much less offensive than most trolls.

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5 minutes ago, ron883 said:

I thought you're too good to post in game threads with us plebs? Beat it.

I usually find my way out by game time, I very publicly enjoy the pre-game discourse, at least those that post in earnest.

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1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

It's true, but he is much less offensive than most trolls.

He's pretty good at it, the Abreu shit is just annoying at this point but some of the rest is funny.

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21 minutes ago, Kalapse said:

He's pretty good at it, the Abreu shit is just annoying at this point but some of the rest is funny.

As opposed to the posters who enjoy ridiculing a man with an addition and disease?

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1 hour ago, 2Deep said:

Will be at the game tonight.

I expect a low scoring game with Gio really shutting down the Brewers tonight 

I expect a low scoring series. 

These are elite pitching matchups. 

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Some day my trades will come.

Until then, baseball.

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1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

Some day my trades will come.

Until then, baseball.

It is somewhat surprising that is so little movement with 7 days until the deadline.

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6 minutes ago, ptatc said:

It is somewhat surprising that is so little movement with 7 days until the deadline.

It's a weird year for sure.

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9 minutes ago, ptatc said:

As opposed to the posters who enjoy ridiculing a man with an addition and disease?

I don't get the context

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7 minutes ago, Kalapse said:

I don't get the context

Sorry, a cheap troll job for the posters who keep reminding everyone about TLR alcohol incidences. 

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4 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Sorry, a cheap troll job for the posters who keep reminding everyone about TLR alcohol incidences. 

ah, that's what I thought, wasn't sure if you were referring specifically to something I've said, now it's clear

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