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Balta1701

White Sox playoff position tracker

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If there's ever any time when doing this won't create a jinx, it's after a 3 game sweep of the Cubs, before a series with Minnesota, and with a 10+ game lead over the division. If things get tighter, will close this thread and open one for the division. This will also be significantly more fun than the draft position trackers, and I will like having all this in one place.

The playoff seeding rules are:

Seeds 1, 2, and 3 in each league go to the 3 division winners. Team 4 is determined by a 1-game playoff between the 4th and 5th teams, held at the ballpark of the #4 seed. Additional one game playoffs, if necessary, are used to determine:
a.) the division champion if 2 teams have the same record
b.) the second wild card if 2 teams have the same record

Aside from those play-in scenarios, the rules for seeding and home field advantage are as follows:

In the Division Series, home field advantage goes to the 1 and 2 seeds. In the League Championship Series, home field advantage goes to the team which had the better record, unless that team is a wild card seed - the wild card seed cannot have home field advantage in the LCS. In the World Series, home field advantage goes to the team with the best record - regardless of whether or not they are a wild card team.

The tiebreakers for seeding:

1. Head to head record
2. Record against your own division
3. Interleague Record
4. The team with the best record in the 2nd half of the season, excluding interleague games
5. The team with the best record in the final 82 games of the season, excluding interleague games. Continue counting backwards/adding games until one team has a better record.

Current seeding AL
1. Tampa Bay 75-47
2. Houston 71-50 3.5 GB
3. CHICAGO 70-51 5 GB  
WC1: Yankees 70 52 5 gb in division
WC2: Oakland 69-53 2.5 gb in division
Last team out: Boston Red Sox 69-54 0.5 gb in Wild Card

Current seeding NL:
1. San Francisco 78-43
2. Milwaukee 74-48 4.5 gb
3. Atlanta Braves 65-56 13 GB
WC1: LA Dodgers 76-46 2.5 gb in division
WC2: SD Padres 67-56 12 gb in division
Last team out: Cincinnati Reds 65-57, 1.5 GB in wild card

Other notes:  Philadelphia is 4 games behind Atlanta, NY Mets are 5 behind Atlanta.

Updated 8/20/21

These teams hold the tiebreaker over the White Sox based on head to head records:
Houston
Milwaukee
NY Yankees

White Sox hold tiebreaker over these teams based on head to head records:
Tampa Bay*
Oakland*

* = upcoming series. To be determined: Boston.

Records in division play for teams where it might matter:
Tampa Bay 39-18
Chicago White Sox 37-25 4.5 gb
Boston 34-26 6.5 gb
Oakland A's 29-26 9 gb

NL team records in division play:
San Francisco 36-18 0 gb
Cincinnati Reds: 35-20 1.5 gb
LA Dodgers 32-20 3 gb
San Diego Padres 28-26 8 gb
Atlanta Braves 36-28 5 gb
Philadelphia Phillies 34-27 5 gb
NY Mets: They're also below .500 against their division

As of now, the White Sox have lost the tiebreakers against the NY Yankees, Houston, and Milwaukee, and thus would be on the road against either of those teams if they finished with the same record, and as of this post all 3 teams have the exact same record. Upcoming series against Oakland, Boston, Tampa Bay could matter for tiebreakers. Winning a series against Boston, winning a series against Tampa Bay would clinch those tiebreakers for the White Sox, winning 2 more games against Oakland would clinch that tiebreaker.

White Sox need to make up ground to avoid going to San Francisco in a potential World Series matchup. White Sox are also behind Cincinnati, San Francisco for the division record tiebreakers and are 0.5 games ahead of the Dodgers, so winning games against the AL Central down the stretch could also be very important for a World Series tiebreaker.

OK, what did I screw up? And, anyone who wants to update any part of this as the season goes on, please feel free to do so, just adding the league records and gb would be nice.

References:
https://registration.mlbpa.org/pdf/majorleaguerules.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Baseball_tie-breaking_procedures
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-playoffs-home-field-matchups-explained-c256992372

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If there's ever any time when doing this won't create a jinx, it's after a 3 game sweep of the Cubs, before a series with Minnesota, and with a 10+ game lead over the division. If things get tighter, will close this thread and open one for the division. This will also be significantly more fun than the draft position trackers, and I will like having all this in one place.

The playoff seeding rules are:

Seeds 1, 2, and 3 in each league go to the 3 division winners. Team 4 is determined by a 1-game playoff between the 4th and 5th teams, held at the ballpark of the #4 seed. Additional one game playoffs, if necessary, are used to determine:
a.) the division champion if 2 teams have the same record
b.) the second wild card if 2 teams have the same record

Aside from those play-in scenarios, the rules for seeding and home field advantage are as follows:

In the Division Series, home field advantage goes to the 1 and 2 seeds. In the League Championship Series, home field advantage goes to the team which had the better record, unless that team is a wild card seed - the wild card seed cannot have home field advantage in the LCS. In the World Series, home field advantage goes to the team with the best record - regardless of whether or not they are a wild card team.

The tiebreakers for seeding:

1. Head to head record
2. Record against your own division
3. Interleague Record
4. The team with the best record in the 2nd half of the season, excluding interleague games
5. The team with the best record in the final 82 games of the season, excluding interleague games. Continue counting backwards/adding games until one team has a better record.

Current seeding AL
1. Tampa Bay 68-44
2. Houston 66-46 2 GB
3. CHICAGO 66-46 2 GB  
WC1: Boston 65-49 4 gb in division
WC2: Oakland 64-48 2 gb in division
Last team out: NY Yankees 61-50 2.5 gb in Wild Card

Current seeding NL:
1. San Francisco 71-41
2. Milwaukee 66-46 5 gb
3. Philadelphia 59-53 12 gb
WC1: LA Dodgers 67-45 3.5 gb in division
WC2: SD Padres 64-49 7.5 gb in division
Last team out: Cincinnati Reds 61-51, 3.5 GB in wild card

Other notes: Atlanta is 2.0 games behind Philadelphia, NY Mets are 2.5 games behind Philadelphia

These teams hold the tiebreaker over the White Sox based on head to head records:
Houston
Milwaukee
NY Yankees*

White Sox hold tiebreaker over these teams based on head to head records:
Tampa Bay*

* = upcoming series. To be determined: Boston, Oakland.

Records in division play for teams where it might matter:
Tampa Bay 33-17
Chicago White Sox 36-23 1.5 gb
Boston 30-21 3.5 gb
Oakland A's 28-24 6 gb
NY Yankees: They don't want you to see how bad this is

NL team records in division play:
Cincinnati Reds: 34-18
San Francisco 31-17 1 gb
LA Dodgers 32-20 2 gb
San Diego Padres 27-20 4.5 gb
Philadelphia Phillies 34-27 5.5 gb
Atlanta Braves 30-28 7 gb
NY Mets: They're also below .500 against their division

As of now, the White Sox have lost the tiebreakers against Houston and Milwaukee, and thus would be on the road against either of those teams if they finished with the same record, and as of this post all 3 teams have the exact same record. Upcoming series against Oakland, Boston, Tampa Bay, NY Yankees could matter for tiebreakers. Sweeping the Yankees, winning a series against Boston, winning a series against Tampa Bay would clinch those tiebreakers for the White Sox.

White Sox need to make up ground to avoid going to San Francisco in a potential World Series matchup. White Sox are also behind Cincinnati, San Francisco for the division record tiebreakers and are 0.5 games ahead of the Dodgers, so winning games against the AL Central down the stretch could also be very important for a World Series tiebreaker.

OK, what did I screw up? And, anyone who wants to update any part of this as the season goes on, please feel free to do so, just adding the league records and gb would be nice.

References:
https://registration.mlbpa.org/pdf/majorleaguerules.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Baseball_tie-breaking_procedures
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-playoffs-home-field-matchups-explained-c256992372

Reds are closer than 3 1/2.  This will be a lot more interesting after those four upcoming “tough” series have been completed and after we have a better gauge on Robert and even Chris Sale…guess that would make for some high media drama if they cross paths.

Edited by caulfield12

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38 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Reds are closer than 3 1/2.  This will be a lot more interesting after those four upcoming “tough” series have been completed and after we have a better gauge on Robert and even Chris Sale…guess that would make for some high media drama if they cross paths.

Got it fixed, they’re 2.5 games out, but they’re losing 8-1 right now so maybe the standings I looked at just came from the future.

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Thank you

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With the remaining schedule, the Sox definitely have a great shot at pushing for home field advantage at least through the AL.  If we have to play on the road for an extra game to win the WS, I'll take it. 

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With the way we play at home, it is pretty important to try and get home field advantage 

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10 minutes ago, BigHurt3515 said:

With the way we play at home, it is pretty important to try and get home field advantage 

I definitely want HFA, but I would hesitate from making observations like this.

The team that got us to this point is a completely different team than the one moving forward. We really don't know what they are. 

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I guess I am out of the loop, i still assumed that the ASG determined home field advantage

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

I guess I am out of the loop, i still assumed that the ASG determined home field advantage

It hasn't in probably a decade lol

Edit: Wait they only got rid of that in 2017?!

Edited by mqr

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I honestly don't care for best record determining WS home field either; the imbalanced schedule is a big factor there. In the pre "this time it counts" era it just alternated between AL/NL each year. That seems as fair a way to do it as any.

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I’d be happy if they got to 97-65. That’s 30-19 the rest of the way. Let’s see how the two weeks of Yankees, A’s, Rays, Blue Jays goes. 

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30 minutes ago, mqr said:

I definitely want HFA, but I would hesitate from making observations like this.

The team that got us to this point is a completely different team than the one moving forward. We really don't know what they are. 

For real. Eloy alone has injected new life into the lineup. Now add Robert and Grandal.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Quin said:

For real. Eloy alone has injected new life into the lineup. Now add Robert and Grandal.

Hernandez, Kimbrel, Tepera, Eloy, Robert, and Grandal is, what, like almost 20 WAR over 162 that didn't have a month ago?

It's the same thing as the 'White Sox can't beat good teams blah blah' thing. Maybe? Yermin Mercedes, Brian Goodwin and Leury certainly can't. 

Edited by mqr
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Posted (edited)

Thanks @Balta1701 nice to have this in one thread.  And thanks @caulfield12 for immediately quoting the long OP unnecessarily. 

I really have no idea what will happen down the stretch with the Stros and Rays.  Sox just need to try and get 95 wins and see where that stacks up.  They can do that, that would be just a few over .500 rest of the way.

Rather interestingly the Sox have taken a big jump in WS odds on FG the last week.

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds 

2nd best odds behind the Dodgers now to win it all.

Edited by chitownsportsfan

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Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Thanks @Balta1701 nice to have this in one thread.  And thanks @caulfield12 for immediately quoting the long OP unnecessarily. 

I really have no idea what will happen down the stretch with the Stros and Rays.  Sox just need to try and get 95 wins and see where that stacks up.  They can do that, that would be just a few over .500 rest of the way.

Rather interestingly the Sox have taken a big jump in WS odds on FG the last week.

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds 

2nd best odds behind the Dodgers now to win it all.

The Dodgers are obviously stacked beyond belief....but they're also 4 games out of first. Hard pressed to get me to say they have better odds atm

Edited by mqr

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I would give the White Sox and Brewers the best odds to win the WS because they're the highest odds to win their divisions. All the other teams are still fairly susceptible to the 1 and done wild card game.

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Everything should be updated in post 1.

Notes: The White Sox were swept by the Yankees earlier this year. They have a 3 game series this weekend. If the Yankees win 1 game, they win the head to head record for the season and win any tiebreakers. If the White Sox sweep the Yankees, the season series would be tied, and the tiebreaker would become division records, where the White Sox are dramatically better than the Yankees.

However, those tiebreakers don't matter if the Yankees are a wild card team, only if they win the division. They would need to make up 6 games on Tampa Bay and pass Boston in the process, and then have the White Sox also pass Tampa Bay to keep up with them, such that both win the division with the same record, for that tiebreaker to matter. Therefore, there's a tiebreaker available this weekend, but it is very unlikely to matter.

Other note: Oakland really is hanging around with Houston out west. Won 6 in a row. That's a true race going on right now.

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On 8/10/2021 at 9:21 AM, wegner said:

With the remaining schedule, the Sox definitely have a great shot at pushing for home field advantage at least through the AL.  If we have to play on the road for an extra game to win the WS, I'll take it. 

The Sox do have a great shot at pushing for HFA throughout the AL playoffs. It is seriously important because we have the best home record in the AL. However it won't matter if LA or SF or any other NL team has a better record than the Sox, because this year in the WS, the AL has the HFA. 

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16 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Everything should be updated in post 1.

Notes: The White Sox were swept by the Yankees earlier this year. They have a 3 game series this weekend. If the Yankees win 1 game, they win the head to head record for the season and win any tiebreakers. If the White Sox sweep the Yankees, the season series would be tied, and the tiebreaker would become division records, where the White Sox are dramatically better than the Yankees.

However, those tiebreakers don't matter if the Yankees are a wild card team, only if they win the division. They would need to make up 6 games on Tampa Bay and pass Boston in the process, and then have the White Sox also pass Tampa Bay to keep up with them, such that both win the division with the same record, for that tiebreaker to matter. Therefore, there's a tiebreaker available this weekend, but it is very unlikely to matter.

Other note: Oakland really is hanging around with Houston out west. Won 6 in a row. That's a true race going on right now.

I'd love to see Houston knocked into (and out of ) a play-in game.

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On 8/10/2021 at 12:14 PM, WhiteSoxFan1993 said:

I would give the White Sox and Brewers the best odds to win the WS because they're the highest odds to win their divisions. All the other teams are still fairly susceptible to the 1 and done wild card game.

Brewers will get booted early.

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23 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Brewers will get booted early.

Really? They're going to get a barely above .500 NL East Champ in the NLDS and then face whichever NL West team survived the battle royale in the other half. They're set up pretty well.

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35 minutes ago, The Kids Can Play said:

The Sox do have a great shot at pushing for HFA throughout the AL playoffs. It is seriously important because we have the best home record in the AL. However it won't matter if LA or SF or any other NL team has a better record than the Sox, because this year in the WS, the AL has the HFA. 

I thought that best record does determine home field advantage for the World Series?  The Allstar Game no longer determines it and they no longer alternate between leagues from what I understand. 

But I could be wrong...Manfred might have had the managers play a round robin match of pinball to determine HFA for all I know.

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1 minute ago, wegner said:

I thought that best record does determine home field advantage for the World Series?  The Allstar Game no longer determines it and they no longer alternate between leagues from what I understand. 

But I could be wrong...Manfred might have had the managers play a round robin match of pinball to determine HFA for all I know.

See the first post, this is explained above. The World Series HFA is determined entirely by the best record of the teams.

Quote

In the Division Series, home field advantage goes to the 1 and 2 seeds. In the League Championship Series, home field advantage goes to the team which had the better record, unless that team is a wild card seed - the wild card seed cannot have home field advantage in the LCS. In the World Series, home field advantage goes to the team with the best record - regardless of whether or not they are a wild card team.

 

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12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

See the first post, this is explained above. The World Series HFA is determined entirely by the best record of the teams.

 

Thanks Balta for clarifying and sorry for responding to a later post instead of reading your excellent break down first.  That was well done.

Note to self...read the damn thread first...answers are often found within.

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It pisses me off that it looks like this, but this team seems content with their 11 game lead and resting people.. I wouldn't get your hopes up for HFA

Hopefully they can still do both, but I don't get the impression that they are going to go balls to the wall for best record in the AL

 

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