Chicago Sun Times: White Sox and their replay system need to sharpen up

[ThirdGen]

1 hour ago, chw42 said:

I jokingly said in the game thread that I can count the number of times we've won a replay review we initiated on one hand. Turns out I only need 2 hands to count the number of times we've even initiated a replay review. 

The Sox are slightly above average in MLB for number of replay reviews won.  The also have the highest percentage of challenges won.  Managers seem to be all over the board with this- Melvin and Hyde have challenged 10 times and only won one, TLR has only challenged 9 but won 7 of those.  Kapler and Roberts have had to most success with 12 each.  TLR is tied at 12th place in MLB with Hinch, Martinez and Cash.  Of the six first place teams at the moment successful challenges range from 2 to 12, with only Kapler ahead of TLR.

[harkness99]

48 minutes ago, ThirdGen said:

The Sox are slightly above average in MLB for number of replay reviews won.  The also have the highest percentage of challenges won.  Managers seem to be all over the board with this- Melvin and Hyde have challenged 10 times and only won one, TLR has only challenged 9 but won 7 of those.  Kapler and Roberts have had to most success with 12 each.  TLR is tied at 12th place in MLB with Hinch, Martinez and Cash.  Of the six first place teams at the moment successful challenges range from 2 to 12, with only Kapler ahead of TLR.

they would have even higher stats if they had challenged the handful of obvious ones everyone has seen.

 

[ThirdGen]

1 minute ago, harkness99 said:

they would have even higher stats if they had challenged the handful of obvious ones everyone has seen.

 

As is likely true with most every team in baseball.  20 seconds is not a long time.  There must be more blown calls than this for every team.  Do you really believe some teams have only one or two blown calls all season?  System was designed for speed.  Everyone is screwing these up.

[southsider2k5]

 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, WhiteSoxFan1993 said:

Sox are 3rd in the AL in pitcher BABIP despite a very high K rate and low GB rate, so the lack of shifting can't be hurting that much.

Take this for whatever it is worth, but BABIP is not impacted (between .001-.002 max) by shifting. Shifting is still effective, but it doesn't impact BABIP. It does impact the batting average on grounders and liners, but does not lower the overall BABIP.

Edited August 16, 2021 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Take this for whatever it is worth, but BABIP is not impacted (between .001-.002 max) by shifting. Shifting is still effective, but it doesn't impact BABIP. It does impact the batting average on grounders and liners, but does not lower the overall BABIP.

Can you explain how that works?

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Can you explain how that works?

For 1, I think people exaggerate the effect of shifting - it definitely has an impact, as it decreases ERA (at least in 2017-2020) by about .065 but it doesn't rob endless amounts of hits. You are only shifting dramatically maybe 25% of the time - total shifts are around 31% of the time - and of those 25% or so I'd say that the players who are heavily shifted on lean more towards being flyball hitters - so their ground ball rates fall around 40% or less. So the impacted plays are a lot less than the total amount of times a team would shift. Over a large enough sample, .001 takes away about 170-200 hits over the course of a season spread out among the teams. Given that the ground ball rate in general falls around 42% for the league, a .002-.003 difference between shifting babip on grounders vs not only, checks out to impact overall babip at about .001-.002 (max).

The runs saved are maybe 4-8 over the course of an entire season per team that shifts. There have actually studies now that show that shifting on righties might have a negative effect too.

[hankchifan]

47 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

48 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Glad that TLR manned up.  Hopefully he learned this lesson and will be more careful in the future on these replays.

 

[hankchifan]

59 minutes ago, ThirdGen said:

As is likely true with most every team in baseball.  20 seconds is not a long time.  There must be more blown calls than this for every team.  Do you really believe some teams have only one or two blown calls all season?  System was designed for speed.  Everyone is screwing these up.

Ask for first base coaches and runners feedback to help in deciding.  Err on the side of challenging in critical/game situations.

[hankchifan]

6 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

This particular situation boils down to a basic understanding of the rules.  There is nothing to lose by challenging the TA play in the 7th.  The Cesar play in one thing - not reviewing the TA play is a terrible mishap by the staff, the review team and everyone involved. Tony should just put his hands on his ears before even phoning the room in that scenario.  He either doesn't get the rules, or doesn't like them.  Whoever is the in the replay room should understand this lack of understanding and immediately call for a review in that scenario.  Its truly baffling.  

This is the type of shit we saw a ton of the first 2 months of the season.  TLR seemed to mostly settle in recently and grasp the modern rules, but the ineptitude resurfaced yesterday.   

There were no challenging during TLR previous managerial stints.  Hope he has learnt his lesson.  He was exposed on the TBS nationally broadcast game yesterday, and he was called out and embarrassed by the TBS announcers.  

[South Side Hit Men]

7 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

the White Sox have challenged 9 calls all year and rank in the bottom 5 of all of baseball. if this is a part of his job description, then he's failing at it; regardless of what else he does for the team. if he's so valuable elsewhere move him there and get him out of this position. i know you love to stan for larussa and i guess now kash, but get a grip.

The Sox / Tony have been very conservative using challenges, almost to the point of wanting to guarantee a reversal before considering using it. Tony stated he does not like using them early, because they might be more important later in the game.

I believe two ways to improve the process is to have the players be involved a little more, instruct them to notify Jerry/Tony immediately if they are sure they were safe (or the opponent was out on defense).

The second is to be less conservative using them early / don’t even wait for the replay late like the seventh inning call.

The goal must be to win as many reversals as possible, not to achieve a perfect reversal rate.

Edited August 16, 2021 by South Side Hit Men

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

For 1, I think people exaggerate the effect of shifting - it definitely has an impact, as it decreases ERA (at least in 2017-2020) by about .065 but it doesn't rob endless amounts of hits. You are only shifting dramatically maybe 25% of the time - total shifts are around 31% of the time - and of those 25% or so I'd say that the players who are heavily shifted on lean more towards being flyball hitters - so their ground ball rates fall around 40% or less. So the impacted plays are a lot less than the total amount of times a team would shift. Over a large enough sample, .001 takes away about 170-200 hits over the course of a season spread out among the teams. Given that the ground ball rate in general falls around 42% for the league, a .002-.003 difference between shifting babip on grounders vs not only, checks out to impact overall babip at about .001-.002 (max).

The runs saved are maybe 4-8 over the course of an entire season per team that shifts. There have actually studies now that show that shifting on righties might have a negative effect too.

I’m not up with the literature on this but rapidly found writing suggesting that runs saved by shifting can be about 50 between the best and worst positioned team.

https://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com/2019/04/01/what-is-team-shift-runs-saved/

https://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com/2020/03/24/what-to-expect-now-that-shifts-are-included-in-defensive-runs-saved/

[shago]

9 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

This is such bullshit. Kash is an incredible guy and he does a ton for the organization.  It's a very difficult job and a totally fucked up system but they call him out to appease the idiot mob.  That's fuckin bullshit.  

Wrong. WRONG. If it's his job, it doesn't matter if he's a nice guy, he fkd-up and absolutely failed in a very critical moment of an important game. 

[reiks12]

9 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Know nothing message board idiot wants to fire guys.   I love this place.  

Awwww this is personal for you isnt it? Did I hurt your fee fees?

[zisk]

23 minutes ago, shago said:

Wrong. WRONG. If it's his job, it doesn't matter if he's a nice guy, he fkd-up and absolutely failed in a very critical moment of an important game. 

No, TLR is ultimately responsible. If it's close, you make the call. Waiting on the booth is stupid in a close game. Challenges don't carry over.

There is nothing to lose. Face it. We're being out managed in every game. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

56 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I’m not up with the literature on this but rapidly found writing suggesting that runs saved by shifting can be about 50 between the best and worst positioned team.

https://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com/2019/04/01/what-is-team-shift-runs-saved/

https://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com/2020/03/24/what-to-expect-now-that-shifts-are-included-in-defensive-runs-saved/

That's way more than I've seen but I imagine this varies from place to place as it's a pretty inexact science. 50 runs seems like far too many though.

[XplodingScorbord]

6 hours ago, manbearpuig said:

9 times? What in the fuck are we doing.

 

[That funky motion]

When the Sox wouldn’t review a play, I always figured it was because Tony didn’t want to show up the umps. He doesn’t argue balls and strike a lot either. 

[JoshPR]

On 8/16/2021 at 2:49 AM, South Side Hit Men said:

From the Chicago Sun Times Article by Steve Greenberg:

https://chicago.suntimes.com/white-sox/2021/8/15/22626399/white-sox-and-their-replay-system-need-to-sharpen-up

Michael Kashirsky is listed in the Sox website as a "Pre Game Instructor", and is the person named in the linked article as the person who reviews the replays, and discusses challenges with Jerry Narron. We are left to assume that Jerry tells Tony whether to challenge based on this article.

 

Wow